Análisis de mercado diario

Asian stocks are trading lower, despite their US counterparts tantalisingly close to setting new record highs, as investors continue sieving through potential signals from the noise surrounding the highly anticipated US-China trade deal. US President Donald Trump teased markets saying that a deal could happen “soon”, even as he repeated his tariff threats. Risk aversion appears to be creeping back into the markets, allowing safe haven assets to trim their month-to-date losses. Gold has pushed back towards $1460 while USDJPY has returned to sub-109.0 levels at the time of writing.

With most Asian currencies currently weaker against the US Dollar, the near-term outlook for Asian currencies remain primarily dictated by the prospects of a US-China trade deal, as investors are hopeful that the signing will take place by year-end. Considering that much of the optimism surrounding the trade deal has been priced in, this suggests that the upside for Asian currencies appear limited, with potential gains further muted by the Dollar’s resilience.

Powell’s speech, US data unlikely to trigger massive moves in DXY

Considering that President Donald Trump’s latest speech offered no new clues surrounding the US-China trade deal, the Dollar will now turn its immediate attention to the incoming US economic data, as well as Fed chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. Powell is expected to reiterate that US monetary policy is currently in a “good place”, with markets currently expecting the Fed to stand pat on US interest rates at least through the first half of 2020. However, should Powell make what is perceived to be a dovish comment, that could prompt some immediate softness in the Dollar.

The upcoming releases of the October US CPI and retail sales data should support the narrative that the FOMC will leave its policy settings unchanged over the coming months. With inflation subdued and consumers still keeping economic growth momentum intact, the US economy is expected to continue its outperformance over its peers, which should buffer the DXY’s resilience.

Brent stumbles as US-China trade deal prospects dictate prices 

Brent futures have retreated below $62/bbl, as markets await fresh signals surrounding the US-China trade talks. With the next OPEC+ meeting just weeks away, it appears that the alliance is pinning their hopes squarely on a trade deal to send Oil prices higher, rather than triggering deeper supply cuts. An official trade deal would offer some sorely needed reprieve for the near-term outlook on global demand, while injecting confidence into Oil bulls going into 2020.

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Asian stocks are in the red after US equities fell amid rising concerns over US-China trade tensions. Media reports claiming that China is expressing doubts about a “comprehensive, long-term” trade deal with the US come as both economic powerhouses prepare to sign a “phase-one” trade deal later this month.

Safe haven assets are gaining, with Gold back above the $1500 as it climbed past its 50-day moving average, while the Japanese Yen strengthened 0.75 percent to now trade around the 108 level versus the US Dollar. 10-year US Treasuries yields have fallen below 1.70 percent for the first time since October 15.

Investors still harbor propensity for safety

The market’s response to the recent trade-related headlines once again lays bare the underlying jitters among investors, who are prone to risk aversion when reminded of the protracted conflict. The US-China truce is not yet on solid ground and it remains to be seen whether the official signing of the limited trade agreement will actually lead to substantially improved ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Even if the “phase one” deal is signed, global economic conditions may not be fully restored as long as existing tariffs remain enforced and continue exerting downward pressure on the worldwide economy. Considering the lingering concerns over the state of the global economy, safe haven assets should remain broadly supported, while the upside for emerging-market assets appear capped for the time being.

Dollar drops ahead of NFP print

The Dollar index (DXY) has fallen below the 97.3 level, having sealed its biggest monthly decline since January 2018, as investors await the October US non-farm payrolls data. With markets forecasting a print of 85,000 jobs added last month, a significant contrast between the official figures and investors’ expectations could prompt the next major move in DXY.

The US economy has now become more reliant on consumers as its primary growth driver, amid expectations that its manufacturing sector remained in contraction territory for a third consecutive month in October. With Fed chair Jerome Powell estimating that risks to the US economy have subsided, investors will be holding policymakers to their data-dependent stance with greater fervor. A sudden deterioration in economic conditions could yet prompt the FOMC to resume its policy easing, even though Powell insists that US monetary policy is in a “good place” now, having already made three 25-basis-point cuts to US interest rates this year.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Asian stocks are mixed after US stocks came off record highs, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and forward guidance. Safe haven assets have also been trading sideways mostly, with Gold not straying too far from the $1500 psychological level, while the Japanese Yen remains below 109 against the US Dollar.

The Dollar index (DXY) is currently steady around the mid-97 levels, as markets await Fed chair Jerome Powell’s forward guidance, sandwiched between the release of US Q3 GDP data and the October non-farm payrolls report. With Fed funds futures already forecasting a 95 percent chance of a third consecutive 25-basis point cut to US interest rates, Powell’s remarks are set to have a bigger influence over the markets rather than the FOMC decision itself.

Should Powell signal a “hawkish cut”, whereby the Fed deems the US economy as having sufficient “insurance” after this month’s 25-basis point adjustment, that could propel DXY back above the 98 psychological level. However, if the door is left wide open for more US rate cuts going into next year, that would disappoint investors who are currently betting that the Fed will leave its policy settings unchanged for the December FOMC meeting.

The upcoming Q3 GDP and jobs report could also further garnish the Dollar’s moves this week, as investors ascertain whether the economic data will either raise or lower the bar for more Fed rate cuts.

Pound in political paralysis as investors digest snap election prospects

News of the upcoming UK elections didn’t offer markets enough reason to break GBPUSD out of the 1.28-1.29 range for now. Over the next six weeks, Sterling could still reflect the political nuances out of the UK as investors try and pre-empt the outcome of the December 12 polls.

Ultimately, investors will be filtering the elections through the Brexit prism, hoping that the world can gain conclusive clarity to this saga that has dragged on since 2016. It remains to be seen how the various political parties position themselves during the campaigning period, who has the better chances of winning and potentially having the final say on Brexit. However, with a no-deal Brexit now seemingly off the table, that suggests that Sterling’s downside is limited, barring any sustained rally in the US Dollar.

Post-Fed Dollar moves to feed into Oil’s near-term performance

Brent futures have climbed more than 3.5 percent so far this month and made their way above the 100-day moving average, taking advantage of the softer Dollar. Oil prices have been buoyed by expectations that OPEC+ will have to enact deeper supply cuts in December, as well as optimism surrounding a US-China trade deal. Should any of these hopes prove unfounded, Brent is likely to give up recent gains as investors refocus on further signs of waning global demand and rising US stockpiles. In the event that the Fed signals a “hawkish cut”, subsequently prompting a bout of Dollar strength, that could add to the downward pressure on Oil prices.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Most Asian stocks are following their US counterparts higher, after strong earnings reports out of US banks gave equities another reason to climb higher, after the risk-on momentum from the US-China trade truce faded. Gains in riskier assets are coming at the expense of safe havens, with Gold now trading below $1485, 10-year US Treasury yields surging past 1.77 percent before easing, while USDJPY touched the 108.86, its strongest level since the start of August.

Even with the gains in equities, some measure of caution is still warranted, as investors cannot rule out a sudden spike in US-China trade tensions or Brexit risks. While riskier assets are enjoying their time in the sun, they could see a rapid unwinding if any of these risks return to the fore.

Brexit deal optimism keeps Pound elevated

The Pound grazed the 1.28 mark against the US Dollar for the first time since May before moderating, as investors hold out hope that a Brexit deal can be secured with the EU in a matter of days. Sterling has strengthened against all G10 and Asian currencies so far this week.

Should the Brexit deal be approved at the upcoming EU leaders’ summit, that could prompt GBPUSD to claim more upside towards 1.30. The Brexit deal however, is expected to face a sterner political test in Westminster, where previous versions of a deal have failed. Should this Brexit deal fall short in overcoming any of its political hurdles this week, Sterling could then quickly tumble towards 1.22.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson may then be forced to ask for a Brexit extension, and in so doing, merely kick the Brexit can down the road once more and string the Pound along its volatile path for longer.

US retail sales data could shift Dollar, Fed rate cut expectations

With the Dollar Index (DXY) now trading around the lower 98 levels, DXY’s next move could be triggered by the upcoming September US retail sales data. Investors have been relying on US consumers to keep the momentum in growth intact, seeing as the US manufacturing sector has been feeling the strains from global trade tensions.

Should the retail sales print come in below market forecasts of 0.3 percent, that could prompt some softness in the Greenback as markets ramp up expectations for more Fed policy easing in 2019. At the time of writing, the Fed funds futures point to a 72.9 percent chance of a 25-basis point cut at the end of this month, followed by a 55.4 percent chance of the Fed leaving its benchmark interest rates unchanged in December.

The Dollar could moderate further if the risk-on mode is sustained following a “limited” US-China trade deal. US President Donald Trump may be forced to dilute his hardline stance in order to seal more policy wins in the lead up to the 2020 Presidential elections. Such a scenario could erode support for the Greenback, as global economic conditions and risk appetite draw relief from easing trade tensions.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Asian stocks followed their US counterparts lower, as investors grow increasingly concerned over an apparent rise in US-China tensions ahead of the high-level trade talks in Washington. So far this week, the US administration has issued travel-visa bans on Chinese officials, while placing eight major Chinese tech companies on a blacklist. Such developments are solidifying the already-tense sentiment in the markets, as investors eagerly await the outcome from the US-China trade negotiations in the coming days.

Recent events surrounding US-China ties threaten to raise new points of conflict beyond just trade differences. A wider scope in this protracted conflict would only heighten the barriers to a meaningful reconciliation between the world’s two economic powerhouses, while prolonging its drag on the global growth outlook. Risk aversion shall continue being the de facto mode for global investors, which should bode well for safe haven assets, keeping gold above $1500.

FOMC minutes and September US CPI release could sway Dollar, Fed rate outlook

The Dollar index is set to face two potential catalysts for near-term moves: the US CPI print and the FOMC minutes. With Fed chair Jerome Powell having recently indicated his preference for inflation to run a little higher, such comments appear to pave the way for another reduction in US interest rates. An October Fed rate cut has already been priced in, as investors remain on the lookout for more telling signs whether to expect another 25-basis point cut in December.

Overall, the Dollar is expected to remain resilient for the rest of the year, with investors flocking to safe haven assets amid a deteriorating global economic outlook. Barring a rapid weakening of global economic headwinds, the Greenback is likely to maintain its appeal as the US economy fares better compared to its peers.

Pound’s near-term gains to be transient as long as no-deal Brexit remains a possibility

The Pound bounced off the 1.22 line against the US Dollar, following reports that Brexit talks are breaking down. With just three weeks remaining before the October 31 deadline, markets cannot yet fully rule out a no-deal Brexit. The likelihood of such a cataclysmic event is deterring traders from sending Sterling significantly higher.

Using the glass-half-full perspective, the fact that the latest decline in GBPUSD appears halted at the 1.22 level indicates that some segments of the markets are still holding out hope that a no-deal Brexit could yet be averted. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s willingness to let the UK crash out of the EU without a deal at the end of this month appears mitigated by Westminster’s efforts to prevent it from happening. The ever-fluid Brexit saga is expected to leave the Pound exposed to politically-driven bouts of volatility over the coming weeks.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.