Análisis de mercado diario

Steady yourselves, we have some positive political news on talks which seem to never end and breach every deadline going! Of course, we know that Brexit deadlines are meaningless and trade talks can seem like they are dead and buried…before some life is found, some common goal pushes negotiations to an agreement. Indeed, the Irish PM Varadkar put this succinctly last week when he said, ‘deals are done at the last moment because everyone needs to be sure it was the best possible deal and there is nothing left on the table.’

Brexit hopes

Optimism in progress to a Brexit deal is soaring this morning with Sterling surging over 1.5% even as PM Johnson repeated his warning from last week that a no deal scenario was most likely. ‘Very difficult’ talks mean movement is still needed on the level playing field and agreement on the so-called ratchet clause, where both sides mutually agree to raise standards. But the rhetoric feels less gloomy as ‘minimal progress’ is still progress. Talks may now drag on until Christmas as there is no new ‘deadline’ and volatility will remain high.

After plunging below 1.32 on Friday, Cable is back in its bullish channel formed after hitting lows below 1.27 at the end of September. If last week’s price action is a false break, then the bulls will be aiming for 1.35 and beyond, especially if the dollar breaks down this week.

Dollar looking ugly

Lingering hopes around a US fiscal stimulus package and the Brexit optimism are pushing the DXY to its recent lows. Details of the bipartisan proposal will be unwrapped today, but congressional approval may prove tricky. Last week’s consolidation in the Dollar Index is healthy, after the big break of the 92 support level. A break lower may push DXY quickly to 90 with the 2018 Spring lows above 88 a target further out.

Positive risk sentiment is also helping US stock futures start the week on a bright note and again, the recent pause can herald a break higher in line with the dominant long-term trend. With Christmas certainly in the air, is that a Santa Claus rally we can hear?

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Markets kicked off the week in risk-on fashion, as they welcomed the weekend's declaration that Joe Biden has won the US presidential race. With a major uncertainty now behind us, markets rejoiced with the abating of US elections uncertainties.

Asian stocks and currencies are all in the green, with Oil prices also jumping higher. The Yen’s declines against most of its G10 and Asian peers have paved the way for the Nikkei 225 to register its highest level since 1991, with the Japanese stock index claiming a meaningful breach past a key long-term resistance level. However, the index may have gotten ahead of itself and could see a near-term pullback, given that its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has broken above the 70 line which denotes 'overbought' territiory.

US futures are also pointing to further gains on Monday’s open, with the S&P 500 set to climb some more after sealing a 7.32 percent advance last week - its biggest weekly gain since April. The futures contract for the S&P 500 are now less than one percent away from the record high it registered on September 2, and is on course to post higher highs and higher lows since the steep September selloff. If this trajectory holds, it appears only a matter of time before new record highs are set for benchmark US indices.

And global stocks have plenty of cause for celebration.

Having pushed higher amid the political uncertainty, equity investors are now facing the prospects of a divided US government. With President Biden’s eventual agenda set to be stymied by a Republican-led Senate, Democrat-favored policies such as higher taxes and more regulations could be thwarted by political wrangling: a boon for equities. Also, a Biden administration would seek to restore US foreign policy towards a more globalized stance, potentially eroding the global trade tensions that have haunted equity markets in export-reliant economies across Asia.

However, that narrative could yet deviate, due to still-unresolved matters stemming from the elections.

The Democrats could still hold enough sway within the chambers of Congress if a pair of run-off Senate elections in Georgia, set to take place in January, favours the blue side of the political divide. In such a Senate make-up, Democrats are likely to have their way with domestic policy and potentially dampen the upside for US stocks. Also, there is the niggling risk that President Trump may yet be able to bring the official elections outcome before the courts, though there is little evidence that his legal challenges would succeed at this point in time.

Still, such concerns aren’t stopping markets from basking in the risk-on sunshine for the time being, with investors already anticipating potential opportunities that may arise across global markets over the next four years.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.