Forex News Timeline

21:02 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 2.4% above expectations (2.2%) in October
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 2.4% above expectations (2.2%) in October

21:02 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (2.2%) in October: Actual (2.3%)
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (2.2%) in October: Actual (2.3%)

20:41 USD/JPY holds near nine-month highs as Japan’s fiscal stance weighs on Yen
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/JPY hovering near nine-month highs around 154.64, despite a broadly softer Greenback.

20:07 WH Economic Advisor Hassett: Historically, the dollar is strong now
White House Senior Advisor Kevin Allen Hasset spoke at a White House conference on Wednesday, talking about the GDP and the government shutdown.

20:04 United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.117% to 4.074%
United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.117% to 4.074%

20:01 NZD/USD rises slightly as risk sentiment improves, RBNZ rate cut looms
NZD/USD hovers around 0.5660 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.15% on the day. In New Zealand, a sluggish economic outlook continues to fuel speculation about a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

19:52 Dow Jones Industrial Average hits all-time high as banking and healthcare stocks lead
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) caught a firm bid on Wednesday, driving into fresh record highs as investors eased back from overexposure to the AI tech rally and moved deeper into more traditional investing mainstays, primarily major banks and healthcare stocks.

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Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

19:41 Fed’s Bostic: Moving policy lower risks feeding the “inflation beast
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic spoke about economic trends at the Atlanta Economic Club on Wednesday. Bostic says he will step down as president of the Fed Bank of Atlanta early next year.

18:17 EUR/USD extends winning streak as Dollar slips ahead of key US House vote
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, reversing earlier losses as the Greenback’s rebound loses steam ahead of a critical congressional vote to end the record-long US government shutdown.

17:47 GBP/USD falls towards 1.3100 as UK political tensions weighs on Sterling
The Pound Sterling tumbles during the North American session on Wednesday as reports emerged that Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership was questioned, ahead of the release of UK’s fiscal budget. The GBP/USD tumbles over 0.34% at 1.3105.

17:15 AUD/USD edges higher on RBA hawkish tone, labor market resilience eyed
AUD/USD climbs slightly on Wednesday toward 0.6530 at the time of writing, supported by renewed demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) ahead of the release of October’s employment report due on Thursday.

16:49 EUR/GBP hits yearly highs amid UK political tensions and BoE rate-cut bets
The Euro (EUR) extends gains against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday as the Sterling weakens across the board following reports of growing tension within the UK Labour Party and speculation over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership, which has added to political uncertainty ahead of this mon

16:27 Fed’s Williams: Fed close to desired level for bank reserves
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams spoke at the United States (US) Treasury Market Conference in New York on Wednesday. He said that determining whether reserves are ample is an inexact science and claimed he is closely watching the markets for signals.

16:14 USD/JPY hits levels last seen in February – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), hitting fresh local lows last seen in February, as traders reacted to Prime Minister Takaichi’s call for closer coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theore

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), hitting fresh local lows last seen in February, as traders reacted to Prime Minister Takaichi’s call for closer coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. JPY underperforms G10 as markets react to Takaichi’s BoJ push"The JPY is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and once again underperforming all of the G10 currencies with a break to fresh local lows reaching levels last seen in February. Fundamental releases have been limited, and market participants are reacting to newly arrived PM Takaichi’s efforts to boost govt/BoJ collaboration." "Takaichi has asked BoJ Gov. Ueda to report regularly to the government’s economic and fiscal council meeting, and markets appear to be interpreting this as a form of imposed cooperation."

16:10 GBP is trading defensively – Scotiabank
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. GBP is trading defensively after Tuesday’s jobs data disappointment"The GBP’s latest recovery looks to have stalled on the back of Tuesday’s employment release that offered broad disappointment across wage growth, jobless claims, and employment growth. The unemployment rate has pushed to a fresh post-covid high of 5%, threatening the December 2020 high at 5.3%." "UK rate expectations are showing signs of stabilization following Tuesday’s jobs-driven decline, and UK-US yield spreads have bounced back. However, much of the GBP ‘s recent spread-driven gains have been eroded by this latest data disappointment."

16:08 EUR quiet and tentatively extending last week’s bullish reversal – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) is trading quietly in the mid/upper 1.15s as it tentatively extends last week’s bullish reversal.

The Euro (EUR) is trading quietly in the mid/upper 1.15s as it tentatively extends last week’s bullish reversal. ECB comments nudge rate expectations higher"Data releases have been limited to the final German CPI print for October, remaining unchanged from the preliminary at 2.3% y/y. The latest comments from the ECB’s Schnabel have reaffirmed the central bank’s neutral bias while signaling concerns about upside risks to inflation." "These comments have supported euro area rate expectations, lifting year-end 2026 rates to 2% – a fresh local high. Interest rate differentials are once again pushing higher, offering the EUR a fundamental lift.""The EUR is tentatively extending last week’s recovery and threatening fresh local highs back above 1.16. The recovery in the RSI is confirming the moves in spot, and currently hovering around the neutral threshold at 50. Near-term resistance is limited ahead of the 50 day MA (1.1662) and we look to a nearterm range between 1.1550 and 1.1650."

16:06 CAD little changed and struggling to make headway through 1.40 – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed and clearly struggling to make headway through the 1.40 area—which spot has tested four times over the past three days, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed and clearly struggling to make headway through the 1.40 area—which spot has tested four times over the past three days, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Bullish trend studies are weakening"Background factors driving the CAD (for example spreads, risk appetite) are tilting a little more constructively for the CAD this morning, pushing our fair value estimate to 1.3858. Trade uncertainty remains a major drag on CAD sentiment, however, and with no resolution in sight, the currency is liable to keep performing below its potential." "Building Permits are out at 8.30ET but are liable to have little or no impact on the market. USD/CAD’s reversal from the mid-1.41 zone has halted around 1.40—noted “psychological” support and roughly the halfway point of the USD’s late October/early November rally (the 50% Fibonacci retracement sits at 1.4014)." "The charts reflect solid support developing for the USD right at the 1.40 point but the lack of any major USD rebound is keeping the short-term technical picture tilted to the downside. Short-term trend momentum is bearish and broader, bullish trend studies are weakening. Support is 1.3890/00. A breakdown should see spot push lower to the 1.3900/50 range."

16:04 USD mixed as markets mull reopening – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to slightly firmer as markets consolidate in quiet trade following the break in North American trading yesterday, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to slightly firmer as markets consolidate in quiet trade following the break in North American trading yesterday, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Markets balance soft ADP jobs. vs. govt. reopening"The USD’s slide extended Tuesday around weekly ADP jobs data showing a fall of 11.5k in private sector jobs on average over the past month. Hopes for an end to the government shutdown continue to buoy broader sentiment, with global stocks broadly higher. Treasurys are outperforming, reflecting the soft jobs implications of the ADP data to some extent. Estimates suggest that the delayed NFP data could be released within 2-3 days of the US government reopening which would give the USD and markets more generally a little more directional certainty perhaps." "Broader FX trends are mixed on the session thus far. The JPY is unperforming and nearing 155, prompting the Finance Minister Katayama to warn markets that sharp, “one-sided” FX moves are being watched with a “high sense of urgency”. UK markets are under a bit of a cloud broadly following speculation about a challenge to PM Starmer’s leadership. There are no data reports today but we get another volley of Fed speakers, most (Williams, Paulson, Waller and Miran) with dovishleaning credentials. Governor Miran has already been on the airwaves this week advocating for a 50bps cut in December." "WSJ Fed-watcher Timiraos notes that Fed officials are “fracturing” over a December rate cut after inflation hawks pushed for a pause after last month’s decision. President Trump remarked Monday that US inflation would hit 1.5% “pretty soon” which likely reflects his desire for the Fed to cut rates. But reaching sub-2% inflation soon seems unlikely. A drop to even 2% inflation by early 2026 (for example) would require a consistent run of 0.1% M/M increases (or better) in headline CPI."

15:40 EUR/JPY climbs to multi-year high above 179.00 as Yen weakness persists
EUR/JPY trades higher around 179.20 at the time of writing, after hitting a new multi-year high at 179.29 on Wednesday, gaining 0.40% on the day, supported by the persistent weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY).

15:32 WTI edges lower after three-day rally; OPEC report signals ample supply ahead
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil edges lower on Wednesday, snapping a three-day winning streak, as optimism builds that the record-long United States (US) government shutdown is nearing an end, lifting overall market sentiment and prompting some profit-taking.

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At the time of writing, WTI trades near $60.14 per barrel, down around 1.2% on the day.The US House of Representatives is scheduled to vote later on Wednesday on a bill aimed at reopening the government and restoring federal operations. The progress has helped ease near-term fiscal concerns and boosted risk appetite across markets, while also helping the US Dollar (USD) stage a modest rebound after recent weakness. A stronger Greenback typically weighs on Crude prices, as it makes Oil more expensive for foreign buyers.Oversupply concerns continue to limit the upside. According to the October Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, crude production from non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina is expected to grow by 0.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year, followed by another 0.6 mb/d increase in 2026. The report also showed OPEC output rising by 630,000 barrels per day in September, underscoring a still-comfortable supply backdrop.On the demand side, OPEC left its 2025 global oil-demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.3 mb/d, noting that most of the increase will come from emerging economies, while demand in advanced nations remains weak. That reinforces expectations of sluggish consumption growth across the OECD region, especially amid refinery maintenance in the Northern Hemisphere that has reduced throughput by about 1.4 mb/d month-on-month.Traders are also turning cautious ahead of the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly inventory report, delayed until Thursday due to the federal holiday schedule. Consensus forecasts point to a 1.0 million-barrel build in crude stockpiles, following the previous week’s 5.2-million-barrel increase. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a.: €18.6B (September) vs €8.3B
Germany Current Account n.s.a.: €18.6B (September) vs €8.3B

15:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at 4.5% above expectations (1%) in September
Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at 4.5% above expectations (1%) in September

14:33 USD/CAD consolidates losses near 1.4000, awaiting US reopening
The US Dollar halted its sell-off against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, with bears capped above the 1.4000 psychological level, following a 0.7% decline in the previous three trading days. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below 1.4020 for now.

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The US Dollar halted its sell-off against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, with bears capped above the 1.4000 psychological level, following a 0.7% decline in the previous three trading days. Upside attempts, however, remain capped below 1.4020 for now.
Market volatility remains subdued on Wednesday, with investors wary of taking excessive risks, as they await the vote in the US Congress that would ratify the bill to end the largest US Government shutdown in history. Such an outcome would allow for the release of a slew of delayed reports that are expected to provide a more accurate picture of the US economic outlook and the Federal Reserve rate path.Dwindling hopes of BoC cuts boost the CADThe Greenback lost ground earlier this week due to a combination of strong Canadian employment figures and some hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada (BoC), which have diminished expectations for further monetary easing in the near term. Beyond that, a recovery in Crude prices completed the US Dollar's bearish picture.
In the US, the downbeat private employment data seen on Tuesday increased concerns about the deterioration of the US labour market and heightened hopes that the Fed will be forced to prioritize employment over inflation, and cut rates for the third consecutive time in December.
Later in the day, a batch of Fed officials is expected to provide further clues about next month’s monetary policy decision. In Canada, the focus will be on the Summary of Opinions of the BoC’s last Governing Council, which might have some impact on the Canadian Dollar’s volatility. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

14:06 Gold consolidates near three-week high as traders await US House funding vote
Gold (XAU/USD) trades little changed on Wednesday, consolidating gains near a three-week high as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of a crucial US congressional vote to end the record-long government shutdown.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold consolidates near a three-week high as traders await a key US House vote to end the record-long government shutdown.Fed commentary in focus after softer labor data strengthens expectations for further monetary easing.Technical setup remains constructive, with $4,100 acting as firm support and bulls eyeing a breakout above $4,150.Gold (XAU/USD) trades little changed on Wednesday, consolidating gains near a three-week high as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of a crucial US congressional vote to end the record-long government shutdown. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,130, with market participants staying on the sidelines amid subdued risk appetite.The US House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a stopgap funding bill aimed at reopening the government and ending the record-long shutdown. The proposal would keep most federal agencies funded through January 30, 2026, while extending funding for some departments until September 30, 2026.Signs of progress toward restoring government operations have helped stabilize risk sentiment. Investors are now turning their focus to the upcoming release of delayed US economic data once the government reopens, which could offer clearer guidance on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path.Despite limited upside momentum, dovish Fed expectations and persistent geopolitical risks keep Gold supported. Recent private employment data have reinforced signs of a cooling labor market, boosting bets that the Fed could pivot toward rate cuts, keeping XAU/USD well bid on dips.Market movers: House vote and Fed commentary steer sentiment amid light US calendarA mild rebound in the US Dollar (USD) is limiting upside in Gold. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 99.60, snapping a five-day losing streak after hitting a two-week low on Tuesday.The Senate’s 60-40 bipartisan vote on Monday to pass the temporary funding bill marked a key step toward ending the record-long shutdown. The progress has eased near-term fiscal worries, although investors remain cautious until the House confirms final approval.Recent private employment figures provided a mixed but generally softer outlook for the US labor market. ADP data released on Tuesday showed that the United States lost an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, compared with an average loss of 14,250 in the preceding month.Meanwhile, last week’s ADP Employment Change report indicated that private payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, beating expectations for a 25,000 gain and reversing the 29,000 decline recorded in September. In the same period, the Challenger Job Cuts report revealed that US employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest monthly total since 2003.Easing trade tensions between the United States and China following the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping meeting in Busan has dampened some of the safe-haven appeal of Gold. Optimism was further supported after President Trump signaled progress in separate trade talks with India and Switzerland. Nevertheless, sentiment remains cautious as the US Supreme Court examines the legality of the administration’s tariff measures, a ruling that could reshape future trade policy.Looking ahead, a light US economic calendar on Wednesday is likely to keep trading subdued, leaving investors focused on comments from several Fed officials for fresh policy cues.Technical analysis: XAU/USD sideways below $4,150Gold prices are consolidating in a tight range on the 4-hour chart, with $4,150 acting as immediate resistance and $4,100 offering near-term support. The price action reflects dip-buying interest around the $4,100 mark, underpinned by a supportive macro backdrop and technical structure.A decisive break above $4,150 could open the door for a move toward $4,200, and potentially set the stage for a retest of the all-time high near $4,381. On the downside, failure to hold $4,100 would shift focus to the $4,050–$4,030 support zone, which aligns with the 100-period SMA.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 62, retreating from overbought territory, suggesting a short-term cooldown in momentum. However, it remains above neutral, indicating the broader bias still leans bullish as traders prepare for a potential breakout. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

14:06 USD/JPY gains as Yen softens on dovish BoJ stance, US shutdown optimism
USD/JPY trades around 154.85 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 0.50% on the day. Comments from Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi have reignited speculation about a looser fiscal stance and a cautious approach by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) regarding further rate hikes.

14:05 DXY slips to two-week low as shutdown nears end – DBS
The US Dollar (USD) weakened further, with the Dollar Index (DXY) falling 0.2% to 99.4 – its lowest since late October – as hopes grow that the US government shutdown will soon end.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened further, with the Dollar Index (DXY) falling 0.2% to 99.4 – its lowest since late October – as hopes grow that the US government shutdown will soon end. Investors remain cautious ahead of fresh data releases, fearing signs of lost economic momentum, DBS' Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee notes. Markets eye house vote on US funding bill"The Dollar Index (DXY) depreciated by 0.2% to 99.4, its weakest level since October 29. The end of the US government shutdown is in sight. The Senate bill to fund the government until January 30, 2026, has been referred to the House of Representatives for a vote, which is expected to take place as early as today, before being sent to President Donald Trump for signing." "Markets remain uneasy about the return of US data releases once the shutdown ends, fearing that the US economy has lost momentum. The ADP report has set a cautious tone showing private sector employers shedding an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks in October. The futures market maintained a two-thirds chance of the Fed lowering rates at the FOMC meeting." "If the DXY stays and extends its decline below 99.5, it has scope to return more of the past month’s gain from 97.5 to 100.4."

14:01 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Extends losing streak for sixth trading day
The USD/CHF pair extends its losing streak for the sixth trading day on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc pair trades 0.15% lower to near 0.7990 during the European trading session.

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The Swiss Franc pair trades 0.15% lower to near 0.7990 during the European trading session. The pair faces selling pressure as the Swiss Franc (CHF) outperforms its peers, driven by hopes that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will not push interest rates into a negative territory.It is unlikely that the SNB will pivot to negative interest rates as inflationary pressures are expected to accelerate in the coming quarters. “Inflation should rise slightly in the next quarters, and interest rates are expected to remain on hold for a long time,” SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said earlier this month.Going forward, investors will focus on the Swiss Producer and Import Prices data for October, which will be released on Thursday.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stabilizes against its other peers during Wednesday’s European trading hours after posting a fresh weekly low around 99.30 on Tuesday. The USD Index fell the previous day after the release of the ADP Employment Change four-week average data, which showed that employers laid off 11.25K workers each week through late October.USD/CHF stays below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.8217, suggesting that the overall trend is bearish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides inside the 40.00-60.00 range, demonstrating an ongoing correction.Going forward, the pair could slide towards 0.7800 and the late July 2011 low of 0.7580, if it breaks below the September 17 low of 0.7829.On the flip side, a recovery move by the pair above the August 1 high of 0.8170 will open the room for more upside towards the June 19 high of 0.8215, followed by the June 6 high of 0.8248.USD/CHF daily chart SNB FAQs What is the Swiss National Bank? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year. How does the Swiss National Bank interest-rate policy affect the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. Does the Swiss National Bank intervene in the forex market? Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses. When does the Swiss National Bank Governing Council decide on monetary policy? The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 0.6% (November 7) vs -1.9%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 0.6% (November 7) vs -1.9%

13:49 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Bulls test YTD highs near 0.8830 amid Pound's weakness
The Euro is heading north for the second consecutive day against a weak British Pound.

13:37 India M3 Money Supply up to 9.3% in October 27 from previous 9.2%
India M3 Money Supply up to 9.3% in October 27 from previous 9.2%

13:24 ECB’s Schnabel: Risks to inflation are tilted a little bit to the upside
European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Isabel Schnabel said at BNP Paribas' 9th annual Global Markets Conference "Europe Reimagined” that there is no need to adjust interest rates in the current situation, and the main focus of the central bank is on core inflation.

12:55 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery stalls below $4,150 resistance
Gold (XAU/USD) remains practically flat on the daily chart on Wednesday, as hesitant market, as investors are reluctant to take risks ahead of the US government’s reopening.

12:51 USD/CNH: Likely to lead to a lower range of 7.1155/7.1260 – UOB Group
Softer underlying tone is likely to lead to a lower range of 7.1155/7.1260 rather than a continued decline. In the longer run, USD has likely entered a range-trading phase between 7.1120 and 7.1330, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Softer underlying tone is likely to lead to a lower range of 7.1155/7.1260 rather than a continued decline. In the longer run, USD has likely entered a range-trading phase between 7.1120 and 7.1330, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD has likely entered a range-trading phase24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade in a range between 7.1170 and 7.1290' yesterday. USD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (7.1175/7.1264), closing largely unchanged at 7.1221 (+0.01%). Despite the quiet price action, the underlying tone has softened somewhat. However, this is likely to lead to a lower trading range of 7.1155/7.1260 rather than a continued decline." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (07 Nov, spot at 7.1230), in which we highlighted that USD 'has likely entered a range trading phase, and for the time being, we expect it to trade between 7.1120 and 7.1330'. We continue to hold the same view."

12:35 Silver supported by Fed rate-cut expectations, US economic concerns
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $51.70 on Wednesday at the time of writing, up 1.00% on the day, extending its recent winning streak. The grey metal benefits from growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in December.

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The grey metal benefits from growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in December. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price in nearly a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction, up from around 62% a day earlier, reinforcing investor appetite for non-yielding assets such as Silver.The expectations of additional monetary easing follow a string of weak economic indicators in the United States (US). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest level since 2022, while October’s job losses and subdued retail activity suggest slowing growth. These signs support the view that the Fed will focus on stabilizing economic momentum rather than containing inflation, a backdrop that typically favors precious metals.The resolution of the partial US government shutdown has helped improve market sentiment, although concerns remain about its economic cost. The US Senate passed a funding bill earlier this week, and the House of Representatives is expected to approve it soon, paving the way for a reopening of federal agencies. However, the long delay in data publication is likely to complicate the Fed’s short-term policy assessment.The US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 99.60 ahead of several speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members later in the day. Analysts at OCBC note that the lack of fresh data will keep markets focused on Fed communication, while ING warns that renewed data flow could reveal further weakness in US employment and growth, posing downside risks for the Greenback. The weakness of the US Dollar makes USD-denominated precious metals more attractive to international investors, thereby supporting Silver prices.In this environment, Silver remains well supported by a mix of safe-haven demand and dovish monetary expectations, even as improving political clarity could temporarily limit its upside potential. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

12:34 Germany 30-y Bond Auction up to 3.26% from previous 3.17%
Germany 30-y Bond Auction up to 3.26% from previous 3.17%

12:28 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 153.10 and 155.00 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range for now, likely between 153.10 and 155.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range for now, likely between 153.10 and 155.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY is likely to trade in a range for now24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated yesterday that USD 'could test 154.45'. However, we stated that 'any further advance above this level is not expected to reach the major resistance at 155.00'. We pointed out that 'support is at 153.90, followed by 153.60'. Our view was not wrong, as USD rose to 154.49, fell to 153.64, and then recovered to close marginally higher at 154.15 (+0.01%). USD appears to have entered a sideways-trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade in a range of 153.65/154.50." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (11 Nov, spot at 154.15) remains valid. As highlighted, USD 'is likely to trade in a range for now, likely between 153.10 and 155.00'."

12:23 Japan’s PM Takaichi: Stresses on coordination with BoJ to achieve growth objectives
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said after the fiscal and economic policy council meeting during the day that members exchanged views on “package and growth strategy”.

12:22 NZD/USD: Might edge higher and test 0.5675 before levelling off – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge higher and test 0.5675 before levelling off; any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.5695.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge higher and test 0.5675 before levelling off; any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.5695. In the longer run, weakness in NZD has stabilized; for the time being, it is likely to trade in a range between 0.5605 and 0.5695, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Weakness in NZD has stabilized24-HOUR VIEW: "When NZD was at 0.5645 yesterday, we noted that 'upward momentum is starting to build, but it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise just yet'. However, we indicated that 'there is scope for NZD to test 0.5665, but a clear break above this level is unlikely'. We added that 'we do not expect the next resistance at 0.5695 to come under threat'. NZD subsequently rose to a high of 0.5669, and then eased off to close at 0.5655 (+0.14%). While upward momentum is continuing to build, it is still not sufficient to indicate a sustained advance. Today, NZD could edge higher and test 0.5675 before levelling off. Based on the current momentum, any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.5695. Support levels are at 0.5640 and 0.5630." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (11 Nov, spot at 0.5645), we revised our view from negative to neutral. We indicated that 'the weakness in NZD has stabilized, and for the time being, it is likely to trade in a range between 0.5605 and 0.5695'. We continue to hold the same view."

12:19 INR: RBI likely to favor stability – Commerzbank
India’s macro backdrop remains resilient, with growth projected at 6.8% and inflation at the lower end of the RBI’s 2–6% target range.

India’s macro backdrop remains resilient, with growth projected at 6.8% and inflation at the lower end of the RBI’s 2–6% target range. While trade tensions with the US have eased and tariff reductions are possible, the RBI is expected to maintain rates at 5.50% near term, supported by stable inflation and policy flexibility. The rupee has weakened modestly this year but is expected to remain broadly stable, with USD/INR seen around 89 by end-2026, Commerzbank's FX analysts Charlie Lay and Moses Lim report. RBI seen on hold after front-loaded rate cuts"The macro environment remains stable despite the US tariff uncertainties. Growth is expected to be around 6.8% for the current fiscal year and inflation to be the lower end of RBI's 2-6% target range. RBI has front-loaded rate cuts to support growth and the weaker INR should also help to absorb some of the tariff shock." "Trade tensions with the US have subsided and there are suggestions US tariffs could be lowered to 15-16% in exchange for increased purchases of US imports and halting Russian oil imports. The GST2.0 reform provided a positive boost to consumer and investor confidence. It simplifies the tax structure and will lower prices in general." "RBI is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.50% near term, but the benign inflation backdrop gives it room to cut if required. INR has been on the backfoot this year and is down over 3% vs USD year-to-date. We expect RBI to favor a relatively stable USD/INR and we project around 89.00 by end-2026."

12:06 Hopes rest on further USD weakness for the time being – Commerzbank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed poorly once again this year. Only the Japanese yen and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have appreciated less against the US Dollar (USD) than the CAD after a period of weakness in recent months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed poorly once again this year. Only the Japanese yen and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have appreciated less against the US Dollar (USD) than the CAD after a period of weakness in recent months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. CAD is likely to strengthen against a weak USD"The reasons for this are clear: the Canadian real economy is suffering greatly from US tariffs, prompting the central bank to cut interest rates further. However, the CAD is also indirectly affected by the tariffs. If the US economy weakens, Canada will suffer too, due to the close links between the two countries' economies. In short, Canada is being hit twice as hard as other countries.""We expect this to continue in the coming year. Although we expect the Canadian real economy to stabilize, this will likely be at a weak level. Plus, while the labor market will have to cope with a lower labor supply, it is still likely to be affected by the poor outlook. There is a clear risk that this situation will persist until a deal can be reached with the US.""Nevertheless, we expect lower USD/CAD levels. This is mainly due to our expectation of a weaker USD, given the attacks on the Fed's independence and the significant interest rate cuts that our economists expect. Basically, we expect this year's trend to continue. The CAD is likely to strengthen against a weak USD, but will probably continue to struggle against other currencies."

12:05 AUD/USD: Price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase – UOB Group
The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6510 and 0.6540. In the longer run, AUD is likely to edge higher within a higher range of 0.6490/0.6580, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6510 and 0.6540. In the longer run, AUD is likely to edge higher within a higher range of 0.6490/0.6580, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD might edge higher within a higher range24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD rose sharply to a high of 0.6540 two days ago. Yesterday, when AUD was at 0.6535, we highlighted the following: 'Further AUD strength is not ruled out, but the rapid rise appears excessive, and any advance is likely limited to a test of 0.6560'. Our view did not materialize, as AUD traded within a relatively tight range of 0.6516/0.6538. The price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6510 and 0.6540." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (11 Nov, spot at 0.6535) remains valid. As highlighted, we expect AUD to edge higher, but we view any advance as part of a higher range of 0.6490/0.6580."

11:58 HUF: The market absorbs a higher public finance deficit – ING
Tuesday's inflation in Hungary was slightly lower than expected, at 4.3% versus 4.5% expected, confirming the downside risk of a stronger HUF. Detailed figures show some stagnation, but it is still not a success story.

Tuesday's inflation in Hungary was slightly lower than expected, at 4.3% versus 4.5% expected, confirming the downside risk of a stronger HUF. Detailed figures show some stagnation, but it is still not a success story. Core inflation, on the other hand, jumped from 3.9% to 4.2%, above the central bank's tolerance band, which will have to wait longer before returning to rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Hungary inflation misses expectations, core CPI rises"In the base case scenario, we expect rate cuts only in the second half of the year, but stronger FX and rate cuts by other central banks increase the risk of an earlier rate cut. The market accepted inflation with the expected dovish movement in rates, but this was quickly overshadowed by the government's announcement of an increase in the public finance deficit. This year's deficit was revised from 4.3% to 5.0% of GDP and for next year from 3.7% to 5.0% of GDP.""The market reacted by steepening the curve, which increases the term premium at the long end of the curve and bonds in particular came under pressure. On the other hand, it seems that the market was expecting some such move and given the extent of the deficit revision for next year, the reaction does not seem so serious. However, we will see how the market absorbs the news today after the US market returns from the holidays and more steepening is likely.""EUR/HUF bounced up from its current lows by 0.5% but the forint erased some of the losses yesterday. This confirms our view that, to a large extent, additional spending was expected by the market before the April elections. At the same time, it suggests that this will not change the current long market view. FX thus appears to be a safer place than fixed income in the current environment, and we will likely remain at current levels below 386 EUR/HUF."

11:54 GBP/USD: Likely to edge higher within a range of 1.3065/1.3230 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3120 and 1.3185. In the longer run, GBP is likely to edge higher within a range of 1.3065/1.3230, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3120 and 1.3185. In the longer run, GBP is likely to edge higher within a range of 1.3065/1.3230, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP/USD is likely to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected GBP to 'trade in a range between 1.3130 and 1.3190' yesterday. However, the subsequent price movements did not turn out as expected. GBP fluctuated between 1.3116 and 1.3184 before closing at 1.3149 (-0.22%). We are not able to derive much from the price action, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range today, most likely between 1.3120 and 1.3185." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (07 Nov, spot at 1.3140), we highlighted that GBP 'could recover further but any advance is likely part of a higher range of 1.3050/1.3220'. Yesterday (11 Nov, spot at 1.3170), we stated that 'while we continue to hold the same view, we now expect a narrower range of 1.3065/1.3230'. There is no change in our view."

11:51 USD/JPY tests 155 as Tokyo fix buying lifts pair – ING
The US Dollar (USD) recovered overnight after a brief dip on weaker ADP jobs data, with USD/JPY leading gains toward the key 155 resistance. Buying around the Tokyo fix and ongoing investment inflows into the US are keeping the pair supported, even as Japanese officials step up verbal warnings.

The US Dollar (USD) recovered overnight after a brief dip on weaker ADP jobs data, with USD/JPY leading gains toward the key 155 resistance. Buying around the Tokyo fix and ongoing investment inflows into the US are keeping the pair supported, even as Japanese officials step up verbal warnings. Markets see real intervention as unlikely before USD/JPY reaches 160, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Investments into US seen supporting USD/JPY"As to core markets, mixed seems an appropriate description. The dollar was briefly hit yesterday after private sector payroll firm, ADP, suggested that 11k jobs had been lost per week through October. This report used a different methodology from its recent release, showing +42k jobs created that same month. Yet the dollar did not stay offered for long and has come back a little bid overnight." "Here, USD/JPY is leading the charge, where buying the Tokyo fix was being blamed for the move. One factor thought to be keeping USD/JPY supported is direct investment into the US. These potential flows have brought USD/JPY to psychological resistance at 155, where Japanese verbal intervention is picking up." "However, few will want to sell USD/JPY at 155, fearing that it could easily run to 160 in thinning year-end markets and that physical intervention to sell USD/JPY probably won't come before that 160 level."

11:46 EUR/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 1.1560 and 1.1610 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1560 and 1.1610. In the longer run, EUR is expected to range-trade, but likely within a narrower range of 1.1520/1.1610, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range between 1.1560 and 1.1610. In the longer run, EUR is expected to range-trade, but likely within a narrower range of 1.1520/1.1610, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is expected to range-trade24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR traded in a range two days ago and closed largely unchanged at 1.1556. Yesterday, when it was at 1.1555, we pointed out that 'there has been no shift in directional momentum indicators'. We expected EUR to 'trade in a range between 1.1535 and 1.1575'. Our assessments were incorrect, as during the NY session, EUR rose sharply but briefly to a high of 1.1605. EUR pulled back from the high to close at 1.1580 (+0.21%). The price movements have resulted in an increase in upward momentum, but it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise. Today, we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.1560 and 1.1610." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (07 Nov, spot at 1.1545), we indicated that 'the EUR’s weakness from a week ago has stabilised', and we expected EUR to 'trade in a range of 1.1485/1.1610 for the time being'. Yesterday, Tuesday, EUR rose briefly to a high of 1.1605. The slight increase in upward momentum suggests EUR is unlikely to break clearly above 1.1610. We continue to expect range-trading, but now anticipate a narrower range of 1.1520/1.1610. Looking ahead, even if EUR were to break above 1.1610, there is another solid resistance level at 1.1630."

11:41 USD: Focus on Fed's Williams speech today – ING
In our 2026 FX outlook published this week, we make the call that the low-volatility environment will extend into 2026 and carry trade strategies will remain popular.

In our 2026 FX outlook published this week, we make the call that the low-volatility environment will extend into 2026 and carry trade strategies will remain popular. The question of whether investors have over-reached into carry was partially answered yesterday, when one popular target currency, the Hungarian forint, faced some tough news on the budget side, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY probably traces out a 99.25-99.75 range "Some looser fiscal policy was already priced in by the market, but at the same time, the resilience of the forint shows a market reasonably wedded to carry trades in a mixed environment for core markets. We also note that Latam currencies are performing very well, buoyed by high carry and the metals story.""For today, the focus will be on the US House presumably passing the Senate compromise bill to reopen government, at least until 30 January. If approved, that means the US government can reopen, perhaps on Friday, and that the September NFP jobs report (potentially USD negative) can be released early next week. Before then, we have a keynote speech from New York Fed President John Williams at 1520CET today. He is seen as slightly dovish, though looks unlikely to move the needle on current pricing of a 66% probability of a 25bp Fed cut in December.""While we would love to say that the dollar made a significant high last week, the catalysts for it to come lower are not obvious right now. That's why we think DXY probably traces out a 99.25-99.75 range for the time being."

11:38 China’s C/A: Weathering the tariff war – Standard Chartered
Peak fear around US-China tariff war is likely behind us; we expect tariffs to stay at current levels in 2026. Diversification, upgrading, and innovation to help China maintain export competitiveness, Standard Chartered's economists report.

Peak fear around US-China tariff war is likely behind us; we expect tariffs to stay at current levels in 2026. Diversification, upgrading, and innovation to help China maintain export competitiveness, Standard Chartered's economists report. Navigating the storm"The latest US-China trade agreement marks a significant de-escalation of tensions; the deal features mutual concessions on tariffs, export controls and other restrictions, and is intended to last one year. China's rare earth controls have proven to be an effective bargaining tool and will likely remain so for at least a few more years. We expect tariffs to remain at current levels through 2026 in our baseline; future negotiations will likely continue to focus on pragmatic, quid pro quo arrangements.""China's exports have held up well this year despite higher US tariffs, while imports have remained soft compared with other Asian countries (Figure 1). As a result, net exports were the key contributor to growth as of Q3, offsetting weak domestic demand, and the current account (C/A) surplus has registered a record high since 2011. We believe the resilience of China’s exports is built on more than just trans-shipment and front-loading: diversification, upgrading, and innovation are also driving competitiveness. Additionally, the softness in imports stems not only from weak demand but also from reduced import intensity due to domestic rebalancing and increasing self-reliance in key inputs.""China’s total factor productivity (TFP) growth has finally resumed its upward trend in recent years following the extended deceleration in the 2010s. Efficiency gains, likely benefiting from automation and digitalisation, have been disinflationary, fuelling China’s export strength especially in the manufacturing sector. With the 15th Five Year Plan (FYP) prioritising technology and promoting services exports, we expect China’s C/A surplus to remain sizable. We revise up our C/A forecasts for 2025-27 to 3.3%, 2.5% and 2% of GDP, from 2.8%, 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively."

11:36 GBP: Downside risks – ING
EUR/GBP is trading back above 0.88 again after yesterday's release of surprisingly soft September unemployment data in the UK, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/GBP is trading back above 0.88 again after yesterday's release of surprisingly soft September unemployment data in the UK, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Political noise could push EUR/GBP to new highs"Even though there are widespread doubts about the quality of the Labour Force Survey data (this survey was briefly suspended in 2023 to reassess its quality), sterling has failed to reclaim its losses.""A further negative today is news that PM Starmer could face a leadership challenge after the budget later this month. Even though Starmer's approval ratings are very poor, his removal would create some doubt about the future of Chancellor Rachel Reeves and add some risk premium to UK asset markets." "GBP already has enough negative news from the tighter fiscal/looser monetary policy story to keep it weak. But political noise could push EUR/GBP to new highs for the year in the 0.8870/8900 area."

11:31 Probably, not much happened – Commerzbank
Today, Wednesday, marks the 43rd day of the US government shutdown, and there is a good chance that it will be ended by the House of Representatives and a subsequent signature by the US President.

Today, Wednesday, marks the 43rd day of the US government shutdown, and there is a good chance that it will be ended by the House of Representatives and a subsequent signature by the US President. It is still unclear exactly when the first data will be published, and there will be lengthy discussions about how distorted it is, but at least there is now the prospect of official data again. In joyful anticipation, the euro rose briefly above 1.16 against the US dollar yesterday, and implied volatility over the next three months also rose slightly again, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Upcoming data releases may increase volatility in EUR/USD again"However, it is highly likely that we will ultimately find that not much has happened. In the absence of official data, many indicators that are otherwise hardly noticed have received a lot of attention (looking at you, ADP). However, there is a reason why these indicators are hardly noticed in normal times: because they are wrong at least as often as they are right. But somehow, the news has to be filled during a shutdown like this, and speculating is kind of fun, which is why anecdotes such as ‘this company wants to cut so many jobs’ receive increased attention and people forget that even 10,000 job cuts are a very small number compared to the 1.7 million jobs that are lost on average every month in the US.""Even without the government shutdown, initial jobless claims, which are published weekly, are a very good leading indicator. And here, not much has changed in recent weeks. Although the figures are not published at federal level, the states publish their figures separately and these can simply be added together. And there are no signs of rising layoffs yet. The other is the unemployment rate nowcast from the Fed in Chicago. Although this indicates a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and at 4.36% the figure would then round up to 4.4%, the pace of the increase is still very manageable though (September was 4.34%).""It may well be that the upcoming data releases will increase volatility in EUR/USD again, but a sustained weakening is probably not in the offing. In any case, I assume that USD weakness will be due to the Fed continuing to cut interest rates in December and also in the new year, although it is unclear whether the labour market and the economy justify this. And this circumstance (i.e. Fed independence) is likely to cause renewed weakness."

11:22 NZD/USD treads water below 0.5670 with both currencies on the back foot
The New Zealand Dollar is trading practically flat, right above 0.5650 against the US Dollar, with both currencies losing ground against their main peers on Wednesday.

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The US Dollar, however, is failing to capitalise on NZD’s fragility, weighed down by weaknesses of its own. The US ADP Employment report showed that US businesses shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week in late October, boosting hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and undermining speculative demand for the Greenback. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

11:20 USD/SGD: Consolidation on the daily chart – OCBC
USD/SGD continued to trade subdued in absence of fresh catalyst. Pair continues to hold around 1.3030 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/SGD continued to trade subdued in absence of fresh catalyst. Pair continues to hold around 1.3030 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Daily momentum is flat"Price pattern last week flagged the risk of a bull trap though it remains early to concur especially when price action this week has been lackluster. Weekly technical shows a gravestone doji, typically associated with a bearish reversal.""On daily chart, daily momentum is flat but RSI showed tentative signs of turning higher. 2-way risks likely. Resistance at 1.31 levels (38.2% fibo, near recent highs). Support at 1.30 (21 DMA), 1.2950 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low) and 1.2930 (50 DMA)." "Looking on, we expect broader market narratives, including USD trend, moves in RMB, JPY and risk sentiments, etc. to influence the pair more as MAS policy takes a back seat for now. S$NEER was last at 1.15% above model implied mid."

11:09 Dow Jones futures gain as US shutdown hopes boost sentiment
Dow Jones futures gain 0.15% to trade near 48,100 during European hours ahead of the opening of the United States (US) regular session on Wednesday. Moreover, the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 gained by 0.33% and 0.55%, with trading near 6,900 and 25,800, respectively.

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Moreover, the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 gained by 0.33% and 0.55%, with trading near 6,900 and 25,800, respectively.US index futures advance as market sentiment improves amid the ongoing process of ending the United States (US) government shutdown. The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown.The US House will vote on the funding bill on Wednesday, sending it to US President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases. Trump already backed a bipartisan deal to end the US government shutdown.Additionally, the risk-on sentiment increased as weaker-than-expected private US labor data, released on Tuesday, increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in nearly a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, up from 62% a day ago. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that the US Employment Change showed an average weekly job loss of 11,250 in the four weeks to October 25.On Tuesday’s regular US session, Wall Street ended mixed, with the Dow Jones climbing 1.18% to a new record high, while the S&P 500 rose 0.21% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.25%. Investors rotated out of tech stocks into blue-chip and cyclical names amid optimism that a funding deal will pass the House this week.Gains in consumer giants such as Walmart rose 1% and McDonald’s gained 2.6%, lifting the Dow Jones, while AI-related stocks declined on valuation concerns, led by Nvidia falling 3%, AMD losing 2.6%, and Palantir dropping 1.3%. Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 2.8%, above forecasts (1.5%) in September
Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 2.8%, above forecasts (1.5%) in September

11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) above expectations (-0.5%) in September: Actual (1.5%)
Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) above expectations (-0.5%) in September: Actual (1.5%)

10:57 GBP: British labor market sends out warning signals again – Commerzbank
The British Chancellor of the Exchequer was probably hoping for a better labour market report that indicates that the underlying trend is stronger than anticipated, providing her with greater flexibility in her upcoming budget, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

The British Chancellor of the Exchequer was probably hoping for a better labour market report that indicates that the underlying trend is stronger than anticipated, providing her with greater flexibility in her upcoming budget, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. BoE is likely to deliver the next cut in December"Ultimately, however, these expectations were not met. Once again, significantly more jobs were lost than expected, and the September figure was revised further into negative territory. This caused the unemployment rate to unexpectedly rise slightly.""Another problem is that wage growth is slowing down. While this allows the Bank of England to respond better to the weakening economy with interest rate cuts, it is negative for residents as inflation is eating into their wage increases already. The BoE is therefore likely to deliver the next interest rate cut in December, followed by at least one more next year. The trend in these data suggests that there will be even more than one cut next year.""The finance minister may experience some relief tomorrow when the initial third-quarter growth estimate is released. Recently, almost all growth has come from the government, while the private sector has seen virtually no growth for almost three years. Better figures would certainly be helpful here, even though the combination of recent data increasingly suggests that the Chancellor is facing a Herculean task with her new budget at the end of the month. Given this unfavourable combination, the risks for the pound are likely to continue to lean towards further depreciation."

10:45 EUR/USD steadies near two-week highs favoured by a weaker US Dollar
EUR/USD shows marginal gains on Wednesday, trading at 1.1685 at the time of writing, not far from the two-week highs above 1.1600 reached on Tuesday, after a downbeat US employment report.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Euro holds gains near two-week highs above 1.1600, supported by a weaker USD.German inflation figures confirm that price pressures moderated in October.US private employment data added reasons for the Fed to cut interest rates further in December.EUR/USD shows marginal gains on Wednesday, trading at 1.1685 at the time of writing, not far from the two-week highs above 1.1600 reached on Tuesday, after a downbeat US employment report. German inflation data provided some support to the Euro (EUR), although market moves remain subdued, with investors awaiting the US Congress to pass the bill that would restore government funding.

Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released earlier on Wednesday, confirmed the preliminary estimations, revealing that consumer inflation remains steady in October at levels broadly in line with the European Central Bank's (ECB) target for price stability. Wholesale Price Index MoM ticked up last month, according to data by Destatis. All in all, endorsing the central bank's monetary policy stance.

Figures released by ADP on Tuesday showed a net loss in private employment of 11,250 jobs in the four weeks ending October 25, highlighting the deterioration of the US labour market and adding pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs further at its December meeting.In Wednesday's economic calendar, ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos and board member Isabel Schnabel will provide some distraction during the European session, while in the US, a slew of Fed speakers might comment on the latest news on employment and give further insight into the bank's rate path. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% 0.13% 0.29% -0.02% -0.12% 0.00% -0.05% EUR 0.01% 0.14% 0.30% -0.01% -0.11% 0.01% -0.04% GBP -0.13% -0.14% 0.18% -0.15% -0.25% -0.13% -0.18% JPY -0.29% -0.30% -0.18% -0.32% -0.42% -0.31% -0.35% CAD 0.02% 0.00% 0.15% 0.32% -0.10% 0.01% -0.03% AUD 0.12% 0.11% 0.25% 0.42% 0.10% 0.12% 0.07% NZD -0.00% -0.01% 0.13% 0.31% -0.01% -0.12% -0.05% CHF 0.05% 0.04% 0.18% 0.35% 0.03% -0.07% 0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: The US Dollar weakens as Fed easing hopes growThe US Dollar is showing a mild bearish tone this week, with investors assuming that official US data will force Fed policymakers to prioritize the labour market over inflation, which confirms the need for a further interest rate cut in December. The US Dollar is extending its pullback from last week's highs, and the Euro (EUR) is drawing support from that.German inflation data released on Wednesday confirmed that the HICP grew at a 0.3% pace in October and at 2.3% in the last 12 months, slightly below the 2.4% yearly inflation seen in September.Likewise, the German Consumer Price Index accelerated to 0.3% in October from 0.2% in September, although the yearly rate eased to 2.3% from the previous month's 2.4% reading.Wholesale Price Index, on the other hand, grew 0.3% in October in Germany, from 0.2% in September, beating expectations of a 0.1% growth. Year-on-year, the index eased to 1.1% from 1.2% in the previous month.The US ADP Employment Change 4-week average revealed that businesses shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week up to October 25, providing further reasons for Fed doves to cut interest rates further.In Europe, the German ZEW Survey disappointed market expectations on Tuesday. The sentiment about the German economic outlook declined to 38.5 in November from 39.3 in October, against expectations of an improvement to 40. The Current Situation has improved to -78.7 from -80, yet short of the market expectations of a -77.5 reading.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD approaches trendline resistance at 1.1615EUR/USD 4-Hour ChartEUR/USD has been appreciating continuously during the last five days. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart are pointing higher, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in the area of 60 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printing green histogram bars, although bulls are likely to be challenged above 1.1600.Price action is nearing the top of the descending channel from early October highs, now around 1.1615, which will meet the price near a previous support, in the area of 1.1620-1.1625 (October 28 low). The pair should break those levels to cancel the broader bearish trend and shift the focus towards the October 28 and 29 highs near the area of 1.1670.Downside attempts are being contained above the 1.1575 session lows for now. Further down, EUR/USD might find support at the 1.1530-1.1540 area (near November 7, 10 lows) ahead of the 1.1500 psychological level and the key support at the November 5 low around 1.1470. Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Last release: Wed Nov 12, 2025 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.3% Consensus: 2.3% Previous: 2.3% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany
Economic Indicator Wholesale Price Index (YoY) The wholesale price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland shows value of sales made by wholesalers in Germany. A growing number in wholesales indicates increases in retail trade and consumption, that is seen as positive or bullish for the EUR, while a declining number indicates the weakened retail sectors, consumption, and the economy in Germany, that is seen as negative or bearish for the currency. Read more. Last release: Wed Nov 12, 2025 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.1% Consensus: - Previous: 1.2% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

10:44 DXY: 2-way trades likely to persist – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) continued to trade mixed in absence of fresh catalyst. DXY was last at 99.50 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) continued to trade mixed in absence of fresh catalyst. DXY was last at 99.50 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.Data to be delayed yet again due to shutdown"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded but decline in RSI slowed. 2-way trades likely to persist. Resistance at 100.40/60 levels (200 DMA, 76.4% fibo), 101.20 levels. Support at 99.10 levels (50% fibo retracement of May high to September low), and 98.20/40 levels (50, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo)." "On ending the government shutdown, a vote in the House is expected later today and is expected to have enough votes in the Republican-controlled House for passage. Question remains when will data releases resume normal flow after US government ends?" "CPI, PPI and retail sales data are supposed to be released on Thursday, Friday this week but is likely to be delayed until further notice. Past data will be gradually released after shutdown is lifted, going by historical episodes. The statistical agencies can release the missed data as and when they are ready and need not wait till the next scheduled date to release."

10:40 EUR: Dining out on the softer USD – ING
EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Softer US data is needed to justify a move well above 1.16 now"Yesterday's release of the German ZEW expectations index for November was not particularly encouraging. However, the aggregate ZEW figure for the eurozone as a whole ticked up, questioning whether Germany is increasingly becoming an outlier.""There is no eurozone data of note today and the focus will be on ECB speakers. Here, Isabel Schnabel is speaking at 1230CET on the subject of: 'Europe Reimagined: The Path to Empowerment'. This sounds like a global euro kind of speech with a call for particular European politicians to reduce fragmentation in the eurozone and pursue policy reforms.""We're happy that EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.16 than 1.15, but will probably require some softer US data to justify a move well above 1.16 now."

10:39 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound pierces 203.30 resistance amid Yen weakness
The Pound has shrugged off the negative pressure from the weak UK employment data seen on Tuesday and bounced up from levels below 202.5, to break the 203.30 resistance area, hitting session highs above 203.50 for the first time since late October.

10:36 Refined products push Oil higher – ING
Oil prices rallied yesterday, with ICE Brent settling more than 1.4% higher on the day, moving back above $65/bbl.

Oil prices rallied yesterday, with ICE Brent settling more than 1.4% higher on the day, moving back above $65/bbl. The recent strength in the Oil market has been driven by refined products, with gasoline and gasOil cracks surging amid concerns about supply, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Uncertainty over Russian crude Oil flows due to sanctions."Continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries are a concern for the market, particularly middle distillates. Meanwhile, US sanctions on LukOil and Rosneft, and what they mean for refining assets outside of Russia, is also a concern for broader product markets. While the outlook for Oil is bearish, the strength in the refined products market is proving to be a significant obstacle.""There's still plenty of uncertainty over Russian crude Oil flows due to sanctions. Ship tracking data indicate that flows have slowed in recent weeks, with the 4-week average at its lowest level since mid-September. Additionally, data show a significant decline in volumes to China and India. Yet, there’s a significant share of Russian seaborne shipments for which the destination is currently unknown, and which could ultimately end up in India and/or China.""Today, OPEC will release its monthly Oil market report, offering its outlook for the remainder of this year and into 2026. The Energy Information Administration will release its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, which includes forecasts for US Oil and gas supplies. And finally, the American Petroleum Institute will publish its weekly US crude and refined product inventory numbers. They were delayed by a public holiday in the US yesterday."

10:31 AUD/USD rises to near 0.6550 ahead of Australian employment data
The AUD/USD pair moves higher to near 0.6550 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms on hopes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance in its upcoming policy meetings.

10:19 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Reaches fresh highs above 179.00 near wedge resistance
EUR/JPY continues its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 179.10 during the European hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is testing resistance within a bearish pattern, trading near the upper boundary of an ascending wedge pattern.

10:18 Pound Sterling continues to decline as weak UK data prompts BoE dovish bets
The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Wednesday. The British currency faces selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will resume its monetary expansion cycle at the December meeting.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling weakens against its major peers as the BoE is expected to cut interest rates in December.BoE’s Greene argues in favor of holding interest rates at their current levels for longer.Weakening US job market conditions prompt Fed dovish bets.The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major currency peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Wednesday. The British currency faces selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will resume its monetary expansion cycle at the December meeting.Traders expect the BoE to reduce interest rates further by 20 basis points (bps) this year, according Reuters. Market participants have raised dovish bets, following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for the three months ending September, released on Tuesday.The employment report showed that employers laid off 22K workers. This is the first time the overall labour force has been reduced since March 2024. Additionally, the ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 5%, the highest level seen since March 2021.Meanwhile, consumer inflation expectations are also expected to cool off as growth in Average Earnings, a wage growth measure, has slowed. In three months ending September, Average Earnings Excluding Bonuses decelerated to 4.6% on an annualized basis, the slowest growth seen in over three years.Contrary to accelerating BoE dovish expectations, policymaker Megan Greene stated at a UBS conference in London on Tuesday that the central bank should continue holding interest rates at their current levels, while expressing confidence that job conditions and wage growth will start improving from here. "I am worried about inflation persistence in the UK, means monetary policy needs to be more restrictive than otherwise," Greene said, and added, “wage settlements data for next year from surveys is higher than we would like to see."Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ticks down against US DollarThe Pound Sterling trades subduedly around 1.3145 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair has come under pressure after ending a four-day winning streak on Tuesday, following the UK employment data release. Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades cautiously against its major peers due to increasing Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish expectations.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles near its weekly low around 99.30 posted on Tuesday.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to the 3.50%-3.75% range in the December meeting has increased to 68% from 62.4% seen on Monday.Fed dovish speculation accelerated after the release of the ADP Employment Change four-week average data, which demonstrated further weakness in job growth. Private payroll processor ADP reported that employers laid off an average of 11.25K workers each week for the four weeks ending October 25.Lately, almost all Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have warned of downside labour market risks, and have kept the door open for further interest rate cuts if job growth deteriorates further.Meanwhile, the reopening of the US government after the longest shutdown in history is expected to improve the economic outlook. On Monday, the US Senate advanced a government funding bill to the House of Representatives, where Speaker Mike Johnson has assured that it will be passed on Wednesday.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling wobbles around 1.3140The Pound Sterling trades inside Tuesday’s trading range around 1.3140 against the US Dollar on Wednesday. The overall trend of the pair remains bearish as it trades below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.3269.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to return above 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would emerge if the RSI resumes its downside journey.Looking down, the April low near 1.2700 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the October 28 high around 1.3370 will act as a key barrier. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:47 US Dollar Index hovers around 99.50 before US House vote on government shutdown bill
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is remaining flat after five days of losses and trading around 99.50 during the European hours on Wednesday.

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Traders will likely observe the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and Stephen Miran, later in the day.The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown. The House will vote on the bill on Wednesday, sending it to US President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases. On Monday, Trump already backed a bipartisan deal to end the US government shutdown, signaling a likely reopening within days.However, the Greenback faced challenges as weaker-than-expected Automatic Data Processing (ADP), on Tuesday, employment data increased the likelihood of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in nearly a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December, up from 62% a day ago.Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the United States on average in the four weeks ending October 25, compared with 14,250 previously. The report suggested the labor market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

09:33 Forex Today: Markets await Fed commentary, US House vote on funding bill
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 12:

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In the absence of high-impact data releases, investors will pay close attention to comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the House of Representatives' vote on the funding bill to officially end the government shutdown. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.23% 0.02% 0.40% -0.35% -0.74% -0.63% -0.71% EUR 0.23% 0.26% 0.70% -0.15% -0.54% -0.42% -0.51% GBP -0.02% -0.26% 0.51% -0.38% -0.77% -0.65% -0.74% JPY -0.40% -0.70% -0.51% -0.81% -1.20% -1.08% -1.21% CAD 0.35% 0.15% 0.38% 0.81% -0.31% -0.29% -0.43% AUD 0.74% 0.54% 0.77% 1.20% 0.31% 0.11% 0.03% NZD 0.63% 0.42% 0.65% 1.08% 0.29% -0.11% -0.09% CHF 0.71% 0.51% 0.74% 1.21% 0.43% -0.03% 0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). On Tuesday, the weekly data published by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, for the four weeks ending October 25. This disappointing data weighed on the USD during the American trading hours, and the USD Index closed the day in negative territory. In the European morning on Wednesday, the USD Index holds steady at around 99.50. Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen gaining between 0.2% and 0.5%, reflecting a relatively upbeat market mood.EUR/USD benefited from the broad USD weakness on Tuesday and briefly climbed above 1.1600. The pair stays in a consolidation phase early Wednesday and fluctuates in a narrow channel slightly below this level.After falling toward 1.3100 on disappointing labor market data in the European session on Tuesday, GBP/USD staged a rebound and erased a portion of its daily losses. The pair struggles to gain traction on Wednesday and trades near 1.3150.Following Monday's rally, Gold turned quiet on Tuesday and ended the day marginally higher. XAU/USD extends its sideways grind to begin the European session on Wednesday and holds comfortably above $4,100.Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Wednesday that they cannot say that Japan has emerged from deflation, and added that she hopes for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to conduct policy so that Japan sees sustainable achievement of price target. USD/JPY continues to push higher and trades at its strongest level since February above 154.50 after posting small gains on Monday and Tuesday.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday that their guess is that the monetary policy is still restrictive. "If it turns out we are no longer mildly restrictive, that has important implications for future policy," Hauser added. AUD/USD holds its ground on Wednesday and edges higher toward 0.6550. In the Asian session on Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the labor market data for October. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

09:14 EUR/GBP holds gains above 0.8800 following German HICP inflation data
EUR/GBP extended its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.8810 during the early European hours on Wednesday.

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The currency cross remains stronger near 0.8829, the highest since May 2023, reached on November 5, following the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data from Germany.Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices rose by 2.3% year-over-year (YoY) in October, matching the market expectations and the prior reading. The monthly HICP inflation remained at 0.3% in the same month. The CPI came in at a 2.3% increase YoY, while monthly inflation remained consistent at 0.3%, as expected.ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Wednesday that the French economy remains resilient despite political uncertainty, noting that households save heavily due to concerns over the public deficit. Galhau added that domestic and international uncertainties are weighing about 0.5% on GDP.The EUR/GBP cross may further appreciate as the Euro (EUR) receives support from a cautious tone surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for now, backed by steady economic performance and inflation near target.Additionally, the EUR/GBP cross gained ground as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles against its peers amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in December. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and UBS Global Research have shifted their stance and expect the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%.BoE policymaker Megan Greene stated on Tuesday that she is not convinced the United Kingdom’s (UK) monetary policy is meaningfully restrictive. Greene noted that wage settlement data for next year is higher than desired and expressed concern about persistent inflation in the UK, suggesting that monetary policy may need to be more restrictive. She also emphasized that risk management around inflation should play a key role in shaping the BoE’s policy outlook, per Reuters German economy FAQs What is the effect of the German Economy on the Euro? The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets. What is the political role of Germany within the Eurozone? Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members. What are German Bunds? Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity. What are German Bund Yields? German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices. What is the Bundesbank? The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

09:10 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $60.75 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s close at $60.88.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.75 after its previous daily close at $64.89.

09:00 Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $1.112B above expectations ($1B) in September
Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $1.112B above expectations ($1B) in September

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in October
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.3%) in October
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October

08:57 ECB's Villeroy: French economy is resilient despite political uncertainty
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that French economy is resilient despite political uncertainty.

08:51 USD/CAD flat lines near 1.4000 on hopes over US shutdown deal, Fed rate cut bets
The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.4010 during the early European session on Wednesday. Private-sector US jobs data stoked worries about labour market weakness, which could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term.

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The US government shutdown nears an end as a funding bill moves to the House after the Senate approved it. The Bank of Canada cut the rates to 2.25% in its October meeting and signaled that the easing cycle may be over. The USD/CAD pair trades on a flat note near 1.4010 during the early European session on Wednesday. Private-sector US jobs data stoked worries about labour market weakness, which could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) in the near term. The Bank of Canada (BoC) Summary of Deliberations will be published later on Wednesday. Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended October 25, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Tuesday. The report suggested the labor market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month. The US Senate approved a compromise on Monday that would end the longest government shutdown in US history. The funding bill is headed to the House for a final vote as soon as Wednesday. If it passes in both chambers of Congress, it will head to US President Donald Trump to be signed into law. Traders brace for an imminent US government reopening that is expected to unleash a backlog of economic releases. Nonetheless, analysts believe that resumption of economic data will point to a slowing economy and that would prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the interest rates next month. This, in turn, could undermine the USD against the CAD. The BoC decided to cut its policy rate to 2.25% in the October meeting, marking the second consecutive 25 basis points (bps) reduction. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem signalled that further rate cuts are unlikely for now, citing that the economy follows its projected path.The BoC survey of market participants suggested that many expect the rate to hold at 2.25% until at least mid-2027. However, other economists are divided, with some anticipating another reduction early in 2026, depending on how trade issues evolve. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

07:42 Japan’s Katayama: It is important for currency to move in stable manner
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that she recently sees one-sided and rapid moves in the currency, adding that she will be closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.

07:37 AUD/NZD hovers around 1.1550 following cautious remarks from RBA’s Hauser
AUD/NZD remains flat after registering more than 0.25% losses in the previous session, trading around 1.1550 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross remains near 1.1590, the highest since September 2013, reached on November 10.

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The currency cross remains near 1.1590, the highest since September 2013, reached on November 10.The Australian Dollar (AUD) may rise against its peers due to cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday, “Our best estimate is that monetary policy remains restrictive, though the committee continues to debate this.” Hauser added that if policy is no longer mildly restrictive, it would have significant implications for future decisions.On the data front, the University of Melbourne released on Tuesday that Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence jumped 12.8% in November to 103.8, surpassing 100 for the first time since February 2022. The rebound follows a 3.5% decline in October and marks the strongest non-pandemic reading in seven years, driven by improving economic conditions and easing external risks.The AUD/NZD cross may continue its winning streak as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggles amid the increasing likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.25% by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in November. Markets also price in a 10% chance of a deeper 50-basis-point cut, amid rising job losses and the economy edging toward a second recession.The dovish sentiment surrounding the RBNZ policy outlook increased following the release of the RBNZ Inflation Expectations on Tuesday, which remained consistent at 2.28% for the quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the fourth quarter, within the 1%–3% target range. RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

07:34 Japan's Takaichi: We cannot say that Japan has emerged from deflation
Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Wednesday that we cannot say that Japan has emerged from deflation. Takaichi further stated that she hopes for Bank of Japan (BOJ) to conduct policy so that Japan sees sustainable achievement of price target.

Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Wednesday that we cannot say that Japan has emerged from deflation. Takaichi further stated that she hopes for Bank of Japan (BOJ) to conduct policy so that Japan sees sustainable achievement of price target.Key quotesRecent inflation driven by food prices, could hurt the economy.
Will work closely with BOJ to ensure Japan sees inflation driven by wages.
Hopes for BOJ to conduct policy so that Japan sees sustainable achievement of price target.
With the wrong policies, there is a risk Japan can slide back into deflation.
And that will then hurt consumption, wage growth, and capex.
The government's job is to create an environment where firms can continues with strong wage hikes.

07:30 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Constructive outlook remains intact near 110.00
The AUD/JPY cross gains ground to around 100.90 during the early European session on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been reluctant to commit to further interest rate hikes on the back of Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-stimulus stance.

07:28 USD/CHF trades cautiously near 0.8000 as Fed dovish speculation intensifies
The USD/CHF pair trades with caution around 0.8000 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) falls on the back foot amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates again this year.

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The Swiss Franc pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) falls on the back foot amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates again this year.During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher to near 99.55. Still, the USD Index is close to its weekly low of 99.30 posted on Tuesday.The US Dollar declined on Tuesday after the release of the ADP Employment Change four-week average data, which prompted Fed dovish expectations. Private payroll processor ADP reported that employers laid off 11.25K workers each week through late October. Weakening US job trend has raised concerns over the current status of the labour market.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting has increased to 68% from 62.4% seen on Monday.Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) trades firmly amid receding expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could shift to negative interest rates. SNB officials have lately expressed confidence that inflation could accelerate in coming quarters.On the global front, the United States (US) and Switzerland are close to signing a trade deal in two weeks. A Bloomberg’s report showed this week that the US and the Swiss economy could announce a trade deal in two weeks, in which Washington is expected to reduce tariffs on imports from Switzerland to 15%. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

07:16 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Seems vulnerable while below 200-hour SMA hurdle near 0.5670
The NZD/USD pair meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday and now seems to have snapped a two-day winning streak, to the 0.5670 region, or a nearly one-week top touched the previous day.

06:53 USD/INR rises at open ahead of India’s retail inflation data
The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a weak note against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair rises to near 88.80 as the Indian Rupee underperforms ahead of the release of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October at 10:30 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee weakens against the US Dollar at open ahead of India’s retail CPI data for October.FIIs continue to dump their stake in the Indian stock market.Weak US job trend has prompted Fed dovish speculation.The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a weak note against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair rises to near 88.80 as the Indian Rupee underperforms ahead of the release of India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October at 10:30 GMT.Economists expect India’s retail inflation to have grown 0.48% on an annualized basis, slower than 1.54% growth seen in September. The expectations of a soft CPI figure are driven by a sustained fall in food prices.According to analysts at Bank of America (BofA), “Base effects are most supportive in this month, as it mirrors the sharp increase in vegetable prices we had seen in October last year”.Signs of price pressures cooling would boost expectations of further monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this year. So far this year, the RBI has already reduced its Repo Rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 5.5%.Meanwhile, the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market due to an absence of a United States (US)-India trade deal announcement has been keeping the Indian Rupee on the back foot. On Tuesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned out to be net sellers again and sold shares worth Rs. 803.22 crore.Daily digest market movers: Weak ADP Employment data prompts Fed dovish betsThe Indian Rupee trades lower against the US Dollar, even as the latter trades cautiously due to intensifying market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the December policy meeting.According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting has increased to 68% from 62.4% seen on Monday.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher to near 99.55. On Tuesday, the USD Index fell sharply after the release of the soft ADP Employment Change four-week average data, which prompted Fed dovish expectations.Private payroll processor ADP reported that employers laid off 11.25K workers each week through late October, demonstrating a weak job trend. "The labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month," said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. The impact of the job data has been significant on Fed’s interest rate projections lately as officials have warned of downside labor market risks.Going forward, investors will focus on a slew of US economic releases, which were halted to the government shutdown. On Tuesday, the US Senate advanced federal funding bill to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which is expected to get passed on Wednesday.Technical Analysis: USD/INR stays above 20-day EMAUSD/INR rises to near 88.80 at open on Wednesday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it stays above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 88.65.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to return above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI (14) manages to do so.Looking down, the August 21 low of 87.07 will act as key support for the pair. On the upside, the all-time high of 89.12 will be a key barrier. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

06:40 EUR/JPY advances to 179.00 neighborhood; highest since August 1992
The EUR/JPY cross scales higher for the fourth straight day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to a fresh high since August 1992 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

06:39 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD attracts some sellers to near $51.00 on stronger US Dollar
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to near $51.10, snapping the five-day winning streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal loses ground amid the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

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Growing economic uncertainty in the US fueled bets for a near-term Fed rate reduction.Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to near $51.10, snapping the five-day winning streak during the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal loses ground amid the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. The Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are set to speak later in the day, including John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran and Susan Collins.The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades in positive territory around 99.55, bolstered by hopes for the end of the US government shutdown. This, in turn, could weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. After the Senate voted 60-40 on Monday to pass a temporary continuing resolution to fund the government, the House is set to vote on the measure on Wednesday, and House Speaker Johnson said he expects it will pass quickly. If it passes in both chambers of Congress, it will head to US President Donald Trump to be signed into law. The bill will restore funding to government agencies through January 30. Markets brace for an imminent US government reopening that is expected to unleash a backlog of US economic releases. “Traders believe (data) will show some weakening economic numbers, and that would prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December... that is probably encouraging the gold and silver market bulls today,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have currently priced in nearly a 68% probability that the US central bank would lower rates by 25 basis points (bps) in the December meeting, up from around a 62% chance a day ago. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Silver, supporting the non-yielding precious metal. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

06:22 GBP/USD moves below 1.3150 as traders expect BoE rate cut in December
GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3140 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in December.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD loses ground as the Pound Sterling struggles dovish tone surrounding the BoE policy outlook.BoE’s Megan Greene expressed doubt that the UK’s monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive.The US Dollar gains as the US House is set to vote on the bill to end the government shutdown.GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.3140 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles amid growing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in December. Analysts at Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and UBS Global Research have shifted their stance and expect the BoE to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%.BoE policymaker Megan Greene stated on Tuesday that she is not convinced the United Kingdom’s (UK) monetary policy is meaningfully restrictive. Greene noted that wage settlement data for next year is higher than desired and expressed concern about persistent inflation in the UK, suggesting that monetary policy may need to be more restrictive. She also emphasized that risk management around inflation should play a key role in shaping the BoE’s policy outlook, per ReutersThe GBP/USD pair also faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to optimism over the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government. The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown. The House is set to vote on the bill on Wednesday, sending it to US President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases.Weaker-than-expected Automatic Data Processing (ADP) employment data, released on Tuesday, reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing in December and weakened the US Dollar. Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended October 25, compared with 14,250 previously. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

06:02 Gold consolidates near three-week high as risk-on mood offsets dovish Fed bets
Gold (XAU/USD) is seen hovering near a three-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday, with bulls awaiting a move beyond the $4,150-4,155 horizontal barrier before positioning for any further appreciating move.

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Investors seem convinced that the delayed US macro data will show some weakness in the economy amid a prolonged US government shutdown and prompt the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower borrowing costs further in December. The dovish outlook keeps the US Dollar (USD) close to a nearly two-week low, touched on Tuesday, and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.Meanwhile, a positive development towards reopening the US government triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-on trade and is holding back bulls from placing fresh bets around the safe-haven Gold. Investors also opt to wait for speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members later this Wednesday for more cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the upside, and any corrective pullback is likely to get bought into.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls turn cautious amid receding safe-haven demandThe reopening of the US government shifts market focus back to the deteriorating fiscal outlook and concerns about weakening economic momentum. Economists estimate that the prolonged government closure might have already shaved approximately 1.5 to 2.0% off quarterly GDP growth.The resumption of normal data flow would reinforce that expectation — especially after last week’s weaker-than-expected US employment and consumer sentiment indicators. Moreover, traders continue to assign a meaningful probability for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month.Data from workforce analytics company Revelio Labs showed last week that 9,100 jobs were lost in October, and government payrolls fell by 22,200 positions. Moreover, the Chicago Fed estimated that the unemployment rate edged up last month, pointing to a deteriorating labor market.This reaffirmed dovish Fed expectations and dragged the US Dollar to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday, assisting the non-yielding Gold to build on its breakout momentum beyond the $4,100 mark. However, the upbeat market mood acts as a headwind for the safe-haven commodity.Gold might continue to attract some dip-buyers and find decent support near $4,100From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair seems to struggle to build on its strength beyond the 50% retracement level of the recent sharp corrective decline from the all-time peak, touched in October. However, positive oscillators on daily/4-hour charts favor bullish traders. Some follow-through buying beyond the $4,150-4,155 zone will reaffirm the constructive outlook and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $4,200 mark. The said handle nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which, if cleared decisively, should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $4,100-4,095 region, could offer immediate support ahead of the $4,075 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $4,025 region en route to the $4,000 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. The XAU/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the $3,936-3,935 region before eventually dropping to the $3,900 round figure. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:45 EUR/USD remains near 1.1600 as ECB holds steady, Fed easing eyed
EUR/USD remains steady after five days of gains, trading around 1.1580 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair may continue its winning streak as the Euro (EUR) could further gain amid a cautious tone surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.

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The pair may continue its winning streak as the Euro (EUR) could further gain amid a cautious tone surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for now, backed by steady economic performance and inflation near target.Traders will likely observe the upcoming German inflation data, including Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for October, to gain further impetus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook.The EUR/USD pair maintains its position as the US Dollar (USD) holds gains due to optimism over the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government. The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown. The House is set to vote on the bill on Wednesday, sending it to US President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases.However, the Greenback faced challenges as weaker-than-expected Automatic Data Processing (ADP), on Tuesday, employment data reinforced expectations of policy easing. Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended October 25, compared with 14,250 previously. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

05:12 RBA’s Hauser: Our best guess is monetary policy is still restrictive
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday, “Our best guess is the monetary policy is still restrictive, the committee is debating this.”

05:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth climbed from previous 6.8% to 7.2% in September
South Korea Money Supply Growth climbed from previous 6.8% to 7.2% in September

04:56 USD/CAD holds gains above 1.4000 as US government shutdown nears end
USD/CAD edges higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.4010 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government.

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The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government. Traders will likely observe the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and Stephen Miran, later in the day.The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown. The House will vote on the bill on Wednesday, sending it to US President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases.US President Donald Trump, on Monday, backed a bipartisan deal to end the US government shutdown, signaling a likely reopening within days. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he expects Trump to sign the bill once Congress passes it.However, the Greenback faced challenges as weaker-than-expected Automatic Data Processing (ADP), on Tuesday, employment data reinforced expectations of policy easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.Private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended October 25, compared with 14,250 previously. The report suggested the labor market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month.The USD/CAD pair faced challenges as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) advanced on increasing cautious sentiment surrounding the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy outlook, driven by last week’s stronger-than-expected labor market data.Additionally, the commodity-linked CAD received support from higher crude prices, given the status of Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price steadies after three days of gains, trading around $60.80 per barrel at the time of writing.Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, popularly known as OPEC+, is scheduled to publish its monthly market report later in the day, followed by the International Energy Agency’s annual energy outlook. Both reports are expected to provide insights into forecasts through 2026 amid persistent concerns about oversupply. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:51 WTI trades with mild gains above $60.50 on hopes of US government reopening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI trades with mild gains amid renewed investor confidence after a US government deal.

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Hopes for the end of the US government shutdown and concerns about Russian supply boost the WTI price. API weekly crude oil stock report and the OPEC monthly oil market report for November will be the highlights on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $60.85 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI trades with mild gains amid renewed investor confidence after a US government deal. Traders await the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude oil stock report and the OPEC monthly oil market report for November, which will be published on Wednesday. The US Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote on Wednesday on a bill already signed off by the Senate. If it passes in both chambers of Congress, it will head to US President Donald Trump to be signed into law. The bill will restore funding to government agencies through January 30. Trump on Monday voiced support for a bipartisan agreement to end the US shutdown, a significant step that makes it likely the government will reopen within days. An end to the US government shutdown could lead to a rebound in travel and jet fuel consumption, underpinning the WTI price. WTI price also receives support from US sanctions against Russia's two biggest oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft. Additionally, Russian owners have agreed to sell their shares in Serbia’s Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) after the major oil and gas company was slapped with Western sanctions.“Crude is benefiting from several tailwinds today, with concerns around Russian supply not making its way to market as some Indian refiners have reduced purchases and analysts are increasing estimates of the potential impact,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) announced earlier this month that the group will raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December but will then pause the production hikes in the first quarter (Q1) next year, fueling fears of a global glut. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

04:17 Japanese Yen languishes near multi-month low against USD amid BoJ uncertainty
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and languishes near the lowest level since February 13, touched against its American counterpart the previous day.

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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been reluctant to commit to further interest rate hikes on the back of Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's pro-stimulus stance. This, along with the optimism over a potential deal to end the US government shutdown, turns out to be a key factor undermining the safe-haven JPY.Meanwhile, a summary of BoJ policymakers' opinions at the October meeting released on Monday indicated a chance of a rate hike in December. Adding to this, speculation that Japanese authorities may step into the market to stem further weakness in the domestic currency might hold back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. Moreover, a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), undermined by bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and concerns about an economic fallout from the US government closure, could cap gains for the USD/JPY pair.Japanese Yen bears retain control amid uncertainty over the timing for the next BoJ rate hikeTakuji Aida – an economist chosen to join Premier Sanae Takaichi's panel to debate her administration's growth strategy – told the Nikkei newspaper that the Bank of Japan should avoid raising interest rates in December. Aida added that the central bank should wait at least until January next year as Japan's economy likely contracted in the third quarter.The Japanese government is expected to finalise an economic stimulus package on November 21. According to a draft outline, the package will urge the BoJ to focus on achieving strong economic growth accompanied by stable prices, underscoring Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s preference for keeping interest rates low to support a fragile recovery.The US Senate voted to pass legislation to reopen the federal government and end the longest government shutdown in the nation’s history. The positive development triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-on trade, which, along with the BoJ rate hike uncertainties, continues to undermine the safe-haven Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Wednesday.Meanwhile, economists estimate that the prolonged US government closure might have already shaved approximately 1.5 to 2.0% off quarterly GDP growth. Moreover, investors seem tilted towards a more dovish US Federal Reserve and have been pricing in a greater chance of another rate cut in December. This, in turn, keeps the US Dollar depressed.In contrast, a summary of BoJ policymakers' opinions at their October meeting released on Monday reflected a view that the time for another interest-rate hike is approaching. Adding to this, the risk of a government intervention to stem further JPY weakness warrants caution for bears, and before positioning for further upside for the USD/JPY pair.In the absence of any relevant market-moving US economic releases on Wednesday, traders will look forward to speeches from a slew of influential FOMC members for cues about the Fed's future rate-cut path. This will drive the USD demand, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, should provide short-term impetus to the currency pair.USD/JPY awaits a move beyond the 154.45-154.50 supply zone before extending the recent move upFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY bulls need to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 154.45-154.50 pivotal hurdle before placing fresh bets. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, spot prices might then aim to conquer the 155.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 155.60-155.65 intermediate barrier en route to the 156.00 round figure.On the flip side, any corrective pullback below the 154.00 mark could be seen as a buying opportunity near the overnight swing low, around the 153.65 region. This should help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair near the 153.00 mark. A convincing break below, however, could pave the way for deeper losses and drag spot prices to the 152.15-152.10 region. The latter should now act as a strong near-term base for the currency pair, which, if broken decisively, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

03:56 US Dollar Index posts modest gains near 99.50 amid hopes of end to US shutdown
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a positive note around 99.55 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY edges higher amid hopes for the end of the US government shutdown.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, trades on a positive note around 99.55 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY edges higher amid hopes for the end of the US government shutdown. Traders will keep an eye on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday for more cues about the US interest rate. The US Senate approved a compromise on Monday that would end the longest government shutdown in US history. The funding bill is headed to the House for a final vote as soon as Wednesday. If it passes in both chambers of Congress, it will head to US President Donald Trump to be signed into law. A potential end to the US government shutdown lifts the US Dollar against its rivals. Nonetheless, traders believe that the resumption of economic data will point to a slowing economy and that would prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in December. This, in turn, might cap the upside for the DXY in the near term. “When the government is closed, the news stream is non-existent. With the government going to reopen, I think we're going to begin seeing more cracks,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.Data last week showed the US consumer sentiment slumped to its lowest level in three and a half years in early November. Additionally, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended October 25, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Tuesday.Traders will take more cues from Fed policymakers later in the day. The Fed’s John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran and Susan Collins are set to speak. Any hawkish remarks could boost the USD, while dovish comments could drag the DXY lower. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

03:51 Australian Dollar declines as US Dollar gains amid nearing government shutdown end
The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, extending its losses for the second successive session. The AUD/USD pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government.

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The AUD/USD pair declines as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from the ongoing process to reopen the United States (US) government.The AUD may regain support from cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy outlook. On Monday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser mentioned the unusual challenges facing monetary policy and stressed the need to maintain tight conditions to curb inflation. Hauser noted that Australia’s monetary policy is navigating a tricky phase, as the economic recovery began with demand already exceeding potential output, leaving limited room for near-term easing.RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones delivered a speech on Wednesday at the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Conference in Broadbeach. Jones noted that markets are underestimating geopolitical risks and that global valuations remain complacent. He also highlighted early signs of fragmentation appearing in central bank Gold reserves.US Dollar receives support as government shutdown nears endThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is halting its five-day losing streak and trading around 99.50 at the time of writing. Traders will likely observe the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, and Stephen Miran, later in the day.The US Senate completed its job and passed the bill that would end the government shutdown. The House will vote on the bill on Wednesday, sending it to President Donald Trump for signature. That would reopen the government, sending paychecks and unleashing economic data releases.US President Donald Trump, on Monday, backed a bipartisan deal to end the US government shutdown, signaling a likely reopening within days. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he expects Trump to sign the bill once Congress passes it.President Trump issued a premonition that inflation will reach 1.5% "pretty soon", a level of inflation that has evaded the US economy for nearly four years after shooting above that level in February of 2021. 1.5% inflation is also well below the long-run average for US inflation over ten years.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the US federal shutdown's impact is getting worse for the economy. Making substantial progress on inflation and expecting prices to come down over the coming months, Bessent added.Job losses in October, mainly in the government and retail sectors, and a drop in consumer sentiment to a three-and-a-half-year low in early November have reinforced expectations of policy easing. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 68% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in December.China's Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that it would temporarily lift its ban on approving exports of “dual-use items” related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the US. The suspension takes effect from Sunday until November 27, 2026. Any change in the Chinese economy could impact the AUD as China is a major trading partner for Australia.National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on Sunday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.2% year-over-year in October, recovering after a decline of 0.3% in September. The market consensus was for 0% in the reported period. CPI inflation increased 0.2% MoM in October, against 0.1% prior. Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.1% YoY in October, following a 2.3% fall in September. The data came in above the market consensus of -2.2%.University of Melbourne released on Tuesday that Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence jumped 12.8% in November to 103.8, surpassing 100 for the first time since February 2022. The rebound follows a 3.5% decline in October and marks the strongest non-pandemic reading in seven years, driven by improving economic conditions and easing external risks.Australian Dollar tests nine-day EMA support near 0.6500The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6520 on Wednesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating within a rectangle pattern, trading sideways. However, the pair is positioned close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating an unbiased short-term momentum.A successful break below the nine-day EMA of 0.6520, followed by the psychological level of 0.6500, could weaken the short-term price momentum and prompt the AUD/USD pair to approach the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6470 and the five-month low of 0.6414, which was recorded on August 21.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could target the 50-day EMA of 0.6536. A break above this level would improve the medium-term price momentum and support the AUD/USD pair to explore the region around the rectangle’s upper boundary, around 0.6630. Further advances would support the pair to target the 13-month high of 0.6707, recorded on September 17.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.16% 0.11% 0.06% 0.10% -0.01% 0.07% EUR -0.04% 0.11% 0.07% 0.02% 0.06% -0.05% 0.02% GBP -0.16% -0.11% -0.02% -0.09% -0.06% -0.16% -0.09% JPY -0.11% -0.07% 0.02% -0.06% -0.02% -0.14% -0.06% CAD -0.06% -0.02% 0.09% 0.06% 0.04% -0.08% 0.00% AUD -0.10% -0.06% 0.06% 0.02% -0.04% -0.11% -0.03% NZD 0.00% 0.05% 0.16% 0.14% 0.08% 0.11% 0.08% CHF -0.07% -0.02% 0.09% 0.06% -0.00% 0.03% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0833 vs. 7.0866 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.0833 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0866 and 7.1141 Reuters estimate.

03:07 NZD/USD edges lower to near 0.5650 as US government shutdown end in sight
The NZD/USD pair declines to around 0.5655 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Optimism over a potential deal to end the US government shutdown provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

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New Zealand’s two-year-ahead annual inflation expectation was unchanged at 2.28%.The NZD/USD pair declines to around 0.5655 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Optimism over a potential deal to end the US government shutdown provides some support to the US Dollar (USD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. The funding bill that would end a record government shutdown in US history is headed to the House for a final vote as soon as Wednesday, after the Senate approved it in a 60-40 vote on Monday. If it passes in both chambers of Congress, it will head to US President Donald Trump to be signed into law. Trump on Monday voiced support for a bipartisan agreement to end the US shutdown, a significant step that makes it likely the government will reopen within days. Hopes of reopening the US government underpin the Greenback and create a headwind for the pair. Nonetheless, further bets of a rate reduction by the US central bank by year-end might cap the upside for the USD. The markets are now pricing in nearly a 68% possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Data released by the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on Tuesday showed that for the four weeks ended October 25, private sector job creation was down more than 11,250 on average per week. The data stands in contrast to the October gains that the firm reported last week, indicating some labor market weakening.In the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary conditions survey revealed that New Zealand's two-year inflation expectation remained steady at 2.28% versus 2.28% seen in Q3. The NZ average one-year inflation expectations rose to 2.39% in Q4, compared to 2.37% in Q3. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

02:30 Australia Investment Lending for Homes registered at 17.6% above expectations (4%) in 3Q
Australia Investment Lending for Homes registered at 17.6% above expectations (4%) in 3Q

02:30 Australia Home Loans registered at 4.7% above expectations (2.5%) in 3Q
Australia Home Loans registered at 4.7% above expectations (2.5%) in 3Q

02:14 RBA’s Jones says markets struggling to price risk
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones spoke on Wednesday at the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Conference, Broadbeach.

01:55 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends upside to near $4,150 as ADP report shows US job losses
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally to around $4,140 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum on further bets of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) by year-end. Traders will keep an eye on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday.

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US companies shed jobs in late October. The reopening of the US government could weigh on the Gold price, a safe-haven asset. Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally to around $4,140 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum on further bets of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) by year-end. Traders will keep an eye on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. The Fed’s John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran and Susan Collins are scheduled to speak. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) revealed on Tuesday that for the four weeks ended October 25, private sector job creation was down more than 11,250 on average per week. The data stands in contrast to the October gains that the firm reported last week, indicating some labor market weakening. Weaker-than-expected employment data from the ADP reignited speculation that the Fed could deliver additional easing, which supports the yellow metal. Markets are currently priced in nearly a 68% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in December, with odds rising to about 80% by January, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding a potential deal to end the US government shutdown. Signs that a resolution to the US government shutdown is nearing could undermine safe-haven assets like Gold. A record US government shutdown is on a path to end as soon as Wednesday after the Senate passed a temporary funding measure backed by a group of eight centrist Democrats, Bloomberg reported late Tuesday. The spending package would keep most of the government open through January 30. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

01:53 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) remains unchanged at 1.6% in October
Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) remains unchanged at 1.6% in October

01:30 GBP/USD rebound challenged by downbeat UK labor data
GBP/USD hit a fresh bearish challenge on Tuesday, hitting a snag and snapping a four-day winning streak. The pair remains hamstrung just south of the 1.3200 handle, and Cable traders will need a fresh shock to push Pound Sterling (GBP) bids back onto the high side.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD snapped a four-day win streak on Tuesday after UK labor data missed expectations.1.3200 is forming into an immediate technical ceiling as bulls look to regather steam.UK job creation is proving more challenging than expected, and the US government shutdown remains ongoing.GBP/USD hit a fresh bearish challenge on Tuesday, hitting a snag and snapping a four-day winning streak. The pair remains hamstrung just south of the 1.3200 handle, and Cable traders will need a fresh shock to push Pound Sterling (GBP) bids back onto the high side.UK employment figures broadly missed the mark on early Tuesday, with the ILO Unemployment Rate rising faster than expected, and more consumers seeking unemployment benefits than markets anticipated. Baseline wages info came in more or less as expected, but wages plus bonuses eased back more than expected, highlighting consumers’ difficulties in negotiating for higher employment remuneration amid rising unemployment.A smattering of mid-tier Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker speeches are due on Wednesday, and while the show of a widening array of opinions at the typically uniform Fed will be entertaining, little of note is likely to materialize. UK datawatchers will be looking ahead to Thursday for another chance at an upbeat data push. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures for the third quarter are due, and are expected to come in more or less unchanged. US markets would have been getting their hands on the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, but the ongoing government shutdown has ended the flow of official data. A resolution is in the works after passing a vote in the US Senate, and now a short-term funding proposal needs to pass a lower house vote.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:09 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Extends slide toward 0.8000
The USD/CHF dives for the fourth consecutive day, trades at around 0.8000 after losing 0.55% late Tuesday, during the North American session. Worse than expected US economic data, and a tariff reduction to Switzerland, boosted the Swiss Franc during the trading session.

01:01 USD/JPY holds positive ground above 154.00 as US Senate moves to end shutdown
The USD/JPY pair trades in positive territory near 154.10 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid optimism over a potential deal to end the US government shutdown.

01:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate up to 2.6% in October from previous 2.5%
South Korea Unemployment Rate up to 2.6% in October from previous 2.5%

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Forex News Timeline

21:02 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 2.4% above expectations (2.2%) in October Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 2.4% above expectations (2.2%) in October

21:02 Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (2.2%) in October: Actual (2.3%) Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (2.2%) in October: Actual (2.3%)

20:41 USD/JPY holds near nine-month highs as Japan’s fiscal stance weighs on Yen The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with USD/JPY hovering near nine-month highs around 154.64, despite a broadly softer Greenback.

20:07 WH Economic Advisor Hassett: Historically, the dollar is strong now White House Senior Advisor Kevin Allen Hasset spoke at a White House conference on Wednesday, talking about the GDP and the government shutdown.

20:04 United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.117% to 4.074% United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.117% to 4.074%

19:41 Fed’s Bostic: Moving policy lower risks feeding the “inflation beast Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic spoke about economic trends at the Atlanta Economic Club on Wednesday. Bostic says he will step down as president of the Fed Bank of Atlanta early next year.

17:15 AUD/USD edges higher on RBA hawkish tone, labor market resilience eyed AUD/USD climbs slightly on Wednesday toward 0.6530 at the time of writing, supported by renewed demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) ahead of the release of October’s employment report due on Thursday.

16:10 GBP is trading defensively – Scotiabank The Pound Sterling (GBP) is soft, down 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) as we head into Wednesday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

16:08 EUR quiet and tentatively extending last week’s bullish reversal – Scotiabank The Euro (EUR) is trading quietly in the mid/upper 1.15s as it tentatively extends last week’s bullish reversal.

16:04 USD mixed as markets mull reopening – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to slightly firmer as markets consolidate in quiet trade following the break in North American trading yesterday, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

15:40 EUR/JPY climbs to multi-year high above 179.00 as Yen weakness persists EUR/JPY trades higher around 179.20 at the time of writing, after hitting a new multi-year high at 179.29 on Wednesday, gaining 0.40% on the day, supported by the persistent weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY).

15:30 Germany Current Account n.s.a.: €18.6B (September) vs €8.3B Germany Current Account n.s.a.: €18.6B (September) vs €8.3B

15:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at 4.5% above expectations (1%) in September Canada Building Permits (MoM) registered at 4.5% above expectations (1%) in September

14:05 DXY slips to two-week low as shutdown nears end – DBS The US Dollar (USD) weakened further, with the Dollar Index (DXY) falling 0.2% to 99.4 – its lowest since late October – as hopes grow that the US government shutdown will soon end.

14:01 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Extends losing streak for sixth trading day The USD/CHF pair extends its losing streak for the sixth trading day on Wednesday. The Swiss Franc pair trades 0.15% lower to near 0.7990 during the European trading session.

14:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 0.6% (November 7) vs -1.9% United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 0.6% (November 7) vs -1.9%

13:49 EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Bulls test YTD highs near 0.8830 amid Pound's weakness The Euro is heading north for the second consecutive day against a weak British Pound.

13:37 India M3 Money Supply up to 9.3% in October 27 from previous 9.2% India M3 Money Supply up to 9.3% in October 27 from previous 9.2%

12:55 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery stalls below $4,150 resistance Gold (XAU/USD) remains practically flat on the daily chart on Wednesday, as hesitant market, as investors are reluctant to take risks ahead of the US government’s reopening.

12:34 Germany 30-y Bond Auction up to 3.26% from previous 3.17% Germany 30-y Bond Auction up to 3.26% from previous 3.17%

12:28 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 153.10 and 155.00 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range for now, likely between 153.10 and 155.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

12:23 Japan’s PM Takaichi: Stresses on coordination with BoJ to achieve growth objectives Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said after the fiscal and economic policy council meeting during the day that members exchanged views on “package and growth strategy”.

12:22 NZD/USD: Might edge higher and test 0.5675 before levelling off – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge higher and test 0.5675 before levelling off; any further advance is unlikely to reach 0.5695.

12:19 INR: RBI likely to favor stability – Commerzbank India’s macro backdrop remains resilient, with growth projected at 6.8% and inflation at the lower end of the RBI’s 2–6% target range.

11:58 HUF: The market absorbs a higher public finance deficit – ING Tuesday's inflation in Hungary was slightly lower than expected, at 4.3% versus 4.5% expected, confirming the downside risk of a stronger HUF. Detailed figures show some stagnation, but it is still not a success story.

11:41 USD: Focus on Fed's Williams speech today – ING In our 2026 FX outlook published this week, we make the call that the low-volatility environment will extend into 2026 and carry trade strategies will remain popular.

11:36 GBP: Downside risks – ING EUR/GBP is trading back above 0.88 again after yesterday's release of surprisingly soft September unemployment data in the UK, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:31 Probably, not much happened – Commerzbank Today, Wednesday, marks the 43rd day of the US government shutdown, and there is a good chance that it will be ended by the House of Representatives and a subsequent signature by the US President.

11:22 NZD/USD treads water below 0.5670 with both currencies on the back foot The New Zealand Dollar is trading practically flat, right above 0.5650 against the US Dollar, with both currencies losing ground against their main peers on Wednesday.

11:20 USD/SGD: Consolidation on the daily chart – OCBC USD/SGD continued to trade subdued in absence of fresh catalyst. Pair continues to hold around 1.3030 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

11:00 Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 2.8%, above forecasts (1.5%) in September Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) came in at 2.8%, above forecasts (1.5%) in September

11:00 Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) above expectations (-0.5%) in September: Actual (1.5%) Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) above expectations (-0.5%) in September: Actual (1.5%)

10:45 EUR/USD steadies near two-week highs favoured by a weaker US Dollar EUR/USD shows marginal gains on Wednesday, trading at 1.1685 at the time of writing, not far from the two-week highs above 1.1600 reached on Tuesday, after a downbeat US employment report.

10:44 DXY: 2-way trades likely to persist – OCBC US Dollar (USD) continued to trade mixed in absence of fresh catalyst. DXY was last at 99.50 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

10:40 EUR: Dining out on the softer USD – ING EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

10:36 Refined products push Oil higher – ING Oil prices rallied yesterday, with ICE Brent settling more than 1.4% higher on the day, moving back above $65/bbl.

09:33 Forex Today: Markets await Fed commentary, US House vote on funding bill Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 12:

09:14 EUR/GBP holds gains above 0.8800 following German HICP inflation data EUR/GBP extended its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.8810 during the early European hours on Wednesday.

09:00 Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $1.112B above expectations ($1B) in September Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $1.112B above expectations ($1B) in September

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in October Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.3%) in October Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets expectations (2.3%) in October

09:00 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.3%) in October

08:57 ECB's Villeroy: French economy is resilient despite political uncertainty European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that French economy is resilient despite political uncertainty.

07:42 Japan’s Katayama: It is important for currency to move in stable manner Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Wednesday that she recently sees one-sided and rapid moves in the currency, adding that she will be closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.

06:40 EUR/JPY advances to 179.00 neighborhood; highest since August 1992 The EUR/JPY cross scales higher for the fourth straight day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to a fresh high since August 1992 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

05:12 RBA’s Hauser: Our best guess is monetary policy is still restrictive Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on Wednesday, “Our best guess is the monetary policy is still restrictive, the committee is debating this.”

05:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth climbed from previous 6.8% to 7.2% in September South Korea Money Supply Growth climbed from previous 6.8% to 7.2% in September

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0833 vs. 7.0866 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Wednesday at 7.0833 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0866 and 7.1141 Reuters estimate.

02:30 Australia Investment Lending for Homes registered at 17.6% above expectations (4%) in 3Q Australia Investment Lending for Homes registered at 17.6% above expectations (4%) in 3Q

02:30 Australia Home Loans registered at 4.7% above expectations (2.5%) in 3Q Australia Home Loans registered at 4.7% above expectations (2.5%) in 3Q

02:14 RBA’s Jones says markets struggling to price risk Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial System) Brad Jones spoke on Wednesday at the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) Conference, Broadbeach.

01:53 Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) remains unchanged at 1.6% in October Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) remains unchanged at 1.6% in October

01:00 South Korea Unemployment Rate up to 2.6% in October from previous 2.5% South Korea Unemployment Rate up to 2.6% in October from previous 2.5%

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