Análisis de mercado diario

Monday’s panic selling has climbed down several notches, after market sentiment has been left raw by the massive sell-offs across many asset classes yesterday. Asian stocks are currently mixed, after the major US indices fell to within one percentage point of a bear market, which is marked by a 20 percent drop from its high. US futures are now pointing slightly higher, which could erase some of the losses when US markets open Tuesday.

Oil to have easier path to downside amid risk of global oversupply

Investors are now having to contend not just with the uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus outbreak, but also with the global implications that come with sub-$40bbl Oil prices. Such levels could put the risk the fiscal standings of Oil-dependent nations, threaten a swath of corporate defaults in the industry, while eroding support for currencies that are linked to the commodity.

At the time of writing, Brent Oil is testing the $37/bbl psychological level, after falling by as much as 31 percent in the day prior to register its biggest single-day drop since the 1991 Gulf War. Still, the expected supply-shock compounds the languishing demand outlook. As Saudi Arabia and Russia get ready to unleash cheaper Oil supplies into the markets, at a time when global economic activity is being curtailed by the ill-effects of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, such supply-demand dynamics should maintain a downward bias for Oil prices.

Risk aversion elevates Gold to higher trading range

With investors nervous over the near-term outlook, safe haven assets have been the clear beneficiaries over the apparent risk aversion in the markets. Gold breached the $1700 level for the first time since December 2012, and has now found a new support level around the $1662 region. Bullion is expected to hold around these levels, barring any surer signs that the downside risks to the global economy are diminishing.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Markets are panicking, and investors are finding few places to hide after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,500 intraday before closing 1,175 points lower at 4.6% on Monday. The hysterical sell-off showed no signs of letting up in Asia with the Nikkei and Topix indices falling more than 6% with the Nifty, ASX and STI straights all declining more than 3%.

With U.S. equities wiping out all gains for January and turning lower for the year, new Fed Chief, Jay Powell will be under a leadership test. The key trigger for the sell-off was the fear of rising inflation, and thus the Fed will need to tighten monetary policy at a faster pace.

Although economic data releases from the U.S. are continuing to impress following last week’s jobs report, with the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index hitting 59.9 in January, this didn’t help to calm the markets. In fact, it had an opposite impact, suggesting that monetary policy needs to tighten faster to avoid the economy from overheating.

Bond yields, which have been a key source of pressure on stocks over the week declined significantly as investors found few places to go for. U.S. 10-year yields declined more than 20 basis points from yesterday’s highs, and if more outflows occur from stocks, I expect to see yields declining further.

We have been anticipating a correction for a long time now, but when markets become over-confident, corrections also become steeper. It’s hard to tell how far markets may decline, but given that economic fundamentals remain strong, I think investors will start buying the dips sooner than later.

Cryptocurrencies are also being dumped with Bitcoin falling towards $6,000 early Monday. The most famous digital currency has fallen 69% from December’s record high, and almost 56% from the start of the year. The slide comes after many banks in the U.S. and U.K. considered banning customers from buying cryptocurrencies using their credit cards. It seems the war against the crypto-world is far from over, and how the situation involves from here remains unknown, but risks are certainly high.

Currency markets have been relatively quiet when compared to the action in equities and bonds, but expect the Yen to strengthen further, if stocks continue to plunge throughout the U.S. trading session.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.