Análisis de mercado diario

Our earnings spotlight shines on Facebook which is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday.

Despite regulatory pressure and lingering anti-trust threats, the social-media juggernaut is expected to report another stunning quarterly result this evening.

Such an outcome may boost confidence over the business outlook and possibly elevate Facebook shares which are up over 11% year-to-date. 

Given the optimism over a global economic recovery and countries across the world easing lockdown restrictions, the Q1 earnings will certainly be one of Facebook’s most significant in years.

Market expectations: EPS & Earnings

According to Bloomberg, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stand around $2.61 per share on $23.72 billion in revenues for Q1 2021.

For a full year, EPS are projected at $12.80 while full-year revenues are seen hitting roughly $108.11 billion – marking a 25.8% increase from 2020.

Interestingly, monthly active users are forecast to hit 2.83 billion which is roughly 36% of the world population. Investor sentiment towards Facebook may brighten if the revenues and EPS meet or exceed forecasts.

What to expect?

The hot topic is privacy. Apple plans to change to its iOS 14 software which forces iPhone users to approve Facebook collecting their data.

If Facebook users on iPhone reject, this could hit revenues going forward. But the question is by how much? Investors are likely to turn to the earnings release which may shed more light on this along with management opinions on what Apple’s latest move means for the business outlook.

As the global economic outlook continues to brighten, Facebook remains one of the winners.

It must be kept in mind that small businesses will most likely benefit from the economy re-opening and normality returning. Given how Facebook gets a handsome chunk of its revenues from these small businesses, the business outlook remains encouraging and this may be reflected in the earnings report.

Can Facebook retest all-time highs?

Facebook shares are looking slightly bearish on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs since hitting the all-time high of $315.73 on 8th April.

Although prices are respecting a bearish channel and trading marginally below the 20 SMA, support can be found at $296.00. Should $296.00 prove to be reliable support, a rebound back towards $310 and $315.73 could be on the cards. Alternatively, a breakdown towards $296 may open the doors towards $290.50.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

It's that time again.

Earnings season is finally here with JPMorgan Chase one of the first big banks to report first-quarter results before US markets open on Wednesday. 

Shares of the America's largest bank have appreciated over 21% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 which is up roughly 10%. Banks stocks in general have been supported by the increasingly optimistic outlook for the US economy, vaccine rollouts and more fiscal policies fuelling economic growth. Even Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer (CEO) is optimistic over a prolonged economic rebound lasting until 2023.

Market expectations: EPS & Earnings 

Investor sentiment towards JPMorgan chase will certainly be impacted by the pending earnings report later today. According to Bloomberg, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates stand around $3.01 per share on $30.42 billion in revenues for Q1 2021. For a full year, EPS are projected at $11.25 while full-year revenues are seen hitting roughly $118.02 billion – the first potential decline in six years.

What to look out for…

There seems to be a lot of optimism around the investment bank's first-quarter results. With adjusted EPS in Q1 forecast to grow a whopping 286.38%, this will be the strongest earnings growth since 2010. Although the massive increase may be partly due to earnings recovering from their painful levels last year, such a figure is still likely to boost confidence over JPMorgan’s outlook.

Digging deeper, investors may turn their attention towards the loan loss reserves. 

Higher loan loss reserves in 2020 highlighted serious concerns about a global economic recession. In a single sentence, the loan loss reserve is the amount banks set aside to cover estimated losses on loans due to defaults. These measures hit earnings as banks set aside money to cover expected loan losses. During the final quarter of 2020, JPMorgan released credit reserves of $2.9 billion which helped boost profits. Much attention will be directed to how much it removed during the first quarter of 2021, as this will not only have an impact on its earnings number but may provide insight into how confident the investment bank is on the economic outlook.  

How about the technicals?

As highlighted earlier, shares of JPMorgan are up over 21% since the start of 2021. Since the start of February, there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows on the daily charts while the MACD trades above 0. However, it seems prices have been trapped within an $8 range over the past few weeks with support at $149.00 and resistance at $157.00.

If the first-quarter earnings meet or exceed the market expectations, this may push the bank's shares towards the $157.00 resistance level. A solid breakout above this point could open doors back towards the all-time high of $161.58 as seen on the FXTM MT4 terminal. Should $157.00 prove to be reliable resistance, a descent towards $149.00 and possibly lower could be on the cards.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.