Análisis de mercado diario

US stocks have opened modestly in the red today, while European bourses have been faring worse this morning reflecting the divergent views for the region’s economies based on their progress in the vaccine rollout. The market is also having to consider vaccine diplomacy that is currently pervading the rising number of infections in Europe. The EU’s threat to curb vaccine exports may not be followed through this time around but it definitely remains a drag on euro sentiment.

Dollar technical level in focus

This environment is helping the dollar for sure, as the greenback makes its way past the widely watched 200-day moving average (92.63) on the DXY. With US yields supportive of dollar sentiment so far this year, any fall back in those yields is likely needed to curb the USD’s attractiveness. The final estimate of Q4 GDP ticked up two tenths to 4.3% while the weekly jobs numbers from across the pond were also positive, although we saw a similar decline in the initial jobless claims four weeks ago.

If the bulls can hold above the 200-day moving average, then they will take aim at 93.00 as the next level above which could then see momentum indicators become a little stretched.

Equity and fixed income rebalancing

It’s quarter-end soon (where did those few months go!?) which means many pension funds have to rebalance their portfolios due to the massive selloff in bonds over the past quarter. Essentially, fund managers have to top up their holdings of fixed income which means selling down part of their equity holdings. This is also magnified by the solid performance of stocks over the last few months. Estimates as to the quantities to be bought range between $80 billion to over $140 billion and the peak of rebalancing is generally around the 25^th of the month ie today!

However impactful this is, we see that the S&P 500 is sitting on its 50-day moving average which has acted as decent support over the last several months.

Bearish momentum has picked up recently so if that moving average fails to work its magic again, the 3,800 marker beckons.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Ahead of the “Big Two” (JYELL aka Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen) speaking later today, US stock have opened up mixed, bond yields are off but trying to make a comeback and the dollar is approaching its highs of the day. Consensus thinks there will be more of the same from the world’s most important policy makers with the Fed remaining super accommodative. Remarks released ahead of the hearing have been positive with Yellen seeing it as possible that the US returns to full employment in 2022, while Powell has said the recovery looks to be strengthening. Inflation is seen as increasing but falling back down again so any deviation from this path will see big moves in the major markets.

Virus-related developments have come to the fore once more, with restrictions in Europe weighing on the single currency and commodities. Germany announced an extension of Covid restrictions until mid-April with a five-day circuit breaker around Easter.

This has certainly upset the continent’s recovery apple cart and is set to cause a revision in market hopes around any kind of regional rebound in the second quarter.

Cable clinging on, one year on…

With vaccine optimism in the UK well known, what other reasons are there to buy sterling in the near term?  GBP/USD hit a six-week low earlier in the session as delays in vaccines shipments, strict social restrictions and a spat with the EU are not helping sentiment, especially as the country marks the one-year anniversary of the first national lockdowns. We also had gloomy data this morning that showed the biggest monthly increase in jobless claims since the first pandemic wave.

Cable is weak today having broken the 1.38 level that marked the bottom of the March trading channel and the pair is now trading precariously on the 50-day moving average that has supported the pair since late 2020.

The January highs have acted as support so far today around 1.3750 but bears will be trying to push the pair towards the next floor at 1.37.

Fresh selling in Oil

WTI is suffering more losses today, down over 3% and below the crucial $60 marker. The stronger dollar and increasing worries that new lockdowns and slow vaccine rollouts in Europe will hurt demand recovery are piling the pressure on the bulls. Fresh weakness may be signalling that the brief recovery after last week’s huge fall is over.

Thursday’s lows at $58.30 is pivotal with the broken $60 level now offering solid resistance. Prices are currently toying with the 50-day moving average just below $59.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Last week, investors looked past the political drama surrounding former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial, sending global stocks to fresh record highs. US futures are currently pointing higher, which suggests more record highs for the likes of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 when US markets resume trading on Tuesday.

Such gains in risk assets could be helped along by these key events this week:

• Monday, 15 February: US markets closed for Presidents’ Day; Euro-area industrial production
   
• Tuesday, 16 February: Euro-area Q4 GDP; German ZEW survey expectations
   
• Wednesday, 17 February: FOMC minutes; US retail sales and industrial production
   
• Thursday, 18 February: GameStop saga hearing before House committee; ECB meeting minutes; Walmart Q4 earnings
   
• Friday, 19 February: Markit PMIs for US, Euro-area, UK
   

Asian stocks return on risk-on note

The new trading week is already kicking off on a positive note for Asian markets, with the Nikkei 225 touching the psychologically-important 30,000 mark for the first time since 1990! Japan’s stock benchmark index has climbed about 8.8 percent already so far in 2021, which is line with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 9 percent year-to-date gain.

There appears to be plenty of reasons to be positive over Japanese stocks over the near-term.

On Monday morning, it announced a better-than-expected Q4 GDP growth of 12.7 percent compared to the previous quarter. Although for the full-year, the economy contracted by 4.8 percent, that is still less than 2009’s 5.7 percent decline following the global financial crisis.

This is testament to the Japanese economy’s ability to recover, once virus-curbing measures are removed.

Japan has imposed a state of emergency on Tokyo and other big cities, which suggests another economic contraction for this quarter. However, with vaccination efforts set to begin starting this Wednesday, the world’s third largest economy could well rebound in the coming quarter, especially if it can demonstrate the same resilience that it had shown in the final quarter of 2020.

Post-Lunar New Year catch up?

Although Hong Kong and China's stock markets will not reopen until later this week, they too could join the risk-on party, should this momentum hold over the coming days.

With the Hang Seng index having already broken out of its downtrend which began in early 2018, it is now coming up to a key resistance level around the 30,250 mark. This resistance region held fast in April 2019 and it remains to be seen whether the same pattern will play out once more over the near-term.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

The UK Parliament is set to approve the historic Brexit trade deal at 2:30PM UK time today, which nullifies the threat of the UK crashing out of the European Union without a deal. While the agreement signaled relief to the markets, this may not be the last time we’ll hear about potential Brexit-induced chaos.

It’s important to note that the deal in hand, which was struck on Christmas eve, includes a “review” clause. That means that if either the UK or the EU is unhappy with how this new arrangement is working out (or not), they could renegotiate the part of the deal that’s being disputed.

This also suggests that tariffs could yet be imposed on UK-EU trade further down the line. The accord that’s set to go into effect by this Friday also lacks clarity on key issues, such as financial services, data flows, and even control over Gibraltar.

This sets us up for potentially more confrontational discussions between London and Brussels, as both try and navigate life in the post-Brexit era.

UK markets join the global party

Such potentially disruptive risks further down the line didn’t stop UK equities from offering a positive reaction on its first trading day since the post-Brexit trade deal was struck on Christmas Eve. Yesterday, the FTSE 100 climbed by 1.55 percent, which was its largest single-day advance in four weeks. Still, the UK benchmark stock index remains nearly 14 percent lower from its 2020 high. At the time of writing, FTSE 100 futures are relatively steady.

Meanwhile, the Pound is firmly within its uptrend against the US Dollar since September, with GBPUSD on course to post a new two-year high above the 1.36 line.

However, Sterling is having less success against the Euro in the post-Christmas sessions, with the former unwinding recent gains against the shared currency. Still, EURGBP remains in a sideways tranche that the pair has adhered to since June.

Dollar declines set to continue next year

Considering the Pound’s 11.9 percent weightage on the Dollar index (DXY), more clarity on the UK outlook could heap more downward pressure on the DXY.

Although the DXY's 14-day relative strength index is flirting with oversold territory once more, any near-term pullback isn’t likely to change the Greenback’s downward trajectory.

And with speculative traders ramping up their bearish bets against the Dollar to the highest levels since March 2011, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the DXY appears destined to extend this year’s near-7 percent decline into 2021 as well.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

It is official.

After more than four years of drama and uncertainty, the United Kingdom and the European Union have finally reached an agreement on terms of a post-Brexit deal.

This is a historical development that is set to lift sentiment and remove a layer of uncertainty for the UK ahead of the New Year. Considering how this agreement comes less than a week before the transition deadline, investors and businesses are breathing a sigh of relief. Given how the trade agreement has to be ratified, the two sides now face a race against time to put the trade deal into law.

For the time being, the deal will allow tariff-free trade to continue between the UK and the EU – a welcome development for business on both sides of the English Channel. However, the UK can eventually expect widespread new barriers to trade and even travel with the European continent – a discussion for another day.

Looking at the technical picture, the GBPUSD offered a muted reaction to the announcement before later slipping against the Dollar. With the agreement largely priced in, the Pound could be experiencing some profit-taking ahead of the Christmas holiday. Prices still remain bullish on the weekly timeframe. A weekly close above 1.3500 could open the doors towards 1.3650 and higher. Should 1.3500 prove to be unreliable support, the GBPUSD may slip towards 1.3300.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.