Análisis de mercado diario

On 14th September 1960, OPEC was born in Baghdad, aiming to “co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries”. 60 years later, the alliance is being strained by a global pandemic.

OPEC’s birthday week holds key events that could influence the near-term performance of Oil prices. Later today, OPEC is set to release its Monthly Oil Market Report, complete with its outlook on global demand and output. Then on Thursday, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is scheduled to meet and discuss the efficacy of its supply cuts, while assessing the level of compliance among members.

Recall that back in April, OPEC+ agreed to an unprecedented supply cuts deal, shaving off 9.7 million barrels per day (bdp) from its collective output, only to then ease off by about two million bpd starting last month in hopes that global demand will stage a sustained recovery.

However, things haven’t quite panned out as they hoped.

Both Crude and Brent are coming off back-to-back weekly drops for the first time since April. On a month-to-date basis, Brent and WTI futures have fallen by over 12 percent respectively, leaving both to be ‘scooped up’ by their 100-day simple moving averages. Both these instruments are also trying to claw themselves out of the ‘oversold’ domain, judging by their respective 14-day relative strength indices having dipped into sub-30 levels recently. At the time of writing, Brent and WTI futures are about 35 percent lower so far in 2020.

The slide in Oil prices comes amid signs that the global demand recovery appears to have stalled. Diesel stockpiles in Singapore are at their highest since 2011, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Gulf producers have slashed the pricing on their respective crude grades to the US and Asia. Oil supermajor, BP, recently cited the risk that global demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels, while traders are buying up tankers in case they need to hold crude supplies for months. According to CFTC data, short-selling on Oil has risen to its highest levels since the historic crash in April this year, when WTI futures were sent into negative territory.

This week, investors will be monitoring how much sway the alliance could still have over global markets, even as these major Oil-producing nations aim to shore up prices. While its 60th birthday celebrations had to be put on hold due to Covid-19 restrictions, OPEC may not be able to hold off further intervention for much longer if Oil prices keep unwinding more of its recovery from the past five months.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Asian currencies and equities are offering a tepid response following news that the death toll from the coronavirus’ spread has climbed to 25, with new cases being reported in more countries, such as Vietnam and Singapore. The subdued trading volumes in the region ahead of the Lunar New Year festivities are likely preventing a more pronounced reaction in the markets.

Market participants perhaps can take heart from China’s efforts to lock down the epicenter of the outbreak by imposing travel curbs on seven cities, and the World Health Organization’s holding back from labelling the situation as a global health emergency. With several Asian markets seeing a holiday-shortened trading week ahead, investors will be hoping that the outbreak doesn’t worsen over the coming days. Still, regional markets could see an outsized reaction when trading resumes should pent-up concerns be unleased if the virus’ spread worsens drastically over the near-term.

However, any such reaction may eventually prove transitory, as long as the still-fragile expectations for a stabilising global economy in 2020 aren’t shattered. Once investors’ fears thin out, that could allow risk-on catalysts such as positive US corporate earnings or macroeconomic data to punch through meaningfully in the markets.

Gold, Yen offer muted reaction so far to coronavirus concerns

In a rather subdued response to the spread of the coronavirus, Gold and the Japanese Yen have seen limited moves over recent days. Bullion prices have refused to stray too far from the mid-$1500 range, while USDJPY appears content trading around the 109 to 110 range.

While not wanting to get too far ahead, fears over a potential pandemic are still supporting these safe haven assets. As the situation stabilises, investors may gradually eschew safe haven assets in favour of more risk-taking activities in the markets, which should prompt eventual softness in Gold and JPY.

Oil prices set to extend weekly losing streak

Unlike Gold and JPY, Oil traders apparently have fewer qualms offering a starker reaction to the viral outbreak. Brent crude dipped below the $62/bbl handle and is on course to mark three consecutive weeks of declines, while winding back most of its gains from December.

The price action of late highlights the notion that demand-side uncertainties are in the driver’s seat when dictating the overall mood in the Oil markets, with investors apparently more willing to brush aside supply-side risks, given recent geopolitical events involving Iran, Iraq, and Libya.

However, from a technical perspective, Brent futures are moving closer to oversold territory. Oil prices could see a rebound once the fears surrounding the coronavirus’ spread can begin retreating, allowing for global trade and travel conditions to stabilise, and by extension, prop up the world’s demand for Oil.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Oil markets continue to drift lower on the charts as the USD strengthens on the back of recent hawkish comments from the FED and in the build up to non-farm payroll this week. With the market expectation likely to be for a strong reading as the labour market has continued to deliver in the wake of expectations it will weaken. There has been calls internally from OPEC to support a production cut and moments ago Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abdai was looking to support an oil output freeze in an effort to stabilize prices and stop oil sliding any further, as the financial stress continues to be an issue for OPEC nations and even Saudi Arabia which is burning through cash reserves. The only issue for this is that many nations including Saudi Arabia have done this to fight of other oil producing nations and establish OPEC as a dominant player, however so far supply has not fallen at all and continued to increase in some regards, especially with Iran looking to boost production to 4.75 million barrels from 3 million and Libya which is rebuilding production as well. So a freeze may be some time off, especially with how fical OPEC can be internally. 

Oil on the charts has been very bearish as of late and I expect it to continue to stretch lower in the short term as the bears have complete control. The next level of major support can be found at 45.78 and the expectation is that it will likely continue to slide lower to this level. If there is no output freeze then I would anticipate further sliding to 44.58 as the next level of support; beyond this level I would struggle to see further major gains unless market conditions change rapidly.

The Australian dollar has been looking weaker against the bears as of late as it struggled to gain any sort of traction on the charts. Data earlier in the week was lacklustre, but the recent building approval data was strong with a rise of 11.6% on the back of a rush for apartment approvals helping to boost the numbers. This comes on the back of the previous months data which showed a decline of -4.7% which worried economists as interest rates were looking to shift lower. Despite the good result it's the USD strength which is driving markets at present, and the weak Australian economy has so far failed to find any sort of ground for future rate rises to encourage fixed interest traders.

On the charts the AUDUSD has been well and truly taken by the bears and is getting pushed through support at 0.7517 and the 38.2 fib retracement and testing the 100 moving average. A push through here will signal strong bullish momentum and we could see the AUDUSD slide lower to 0.7450 which is currently just below the 0.50 fib retracement level and likely to be the next major zone traders look to target. Either way while the USD continues to be the in-trade all eyes will be on the AUDUSD to see how much it can take before traders look to take some of those gains.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.