Análisis de mercado diario

The mood across financial markets was fragile on Tuesday as investors kept a close eye on the troubled property giant China Evergrande Group.

Although Asian stocks closed mixed and European shares rebounded, an air of caution lingered amid worries about contagion risks associated with Evergrande. U.S stock futures pointed to recovery this afternoon, but gains may be capped if market players adopt a defensive stance ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. US equity bulls already seem to be losing steam with the S&P500 and Nasdaq down over 3.6% this month. Given how US stocks remain sensitive to taper talks and rate hike expectations, the pending Fed meeting could spark some movements across the board.

OECD trims global growth forecast

Adding to the shaky sentiment, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) trimmed the global growth forecast to 5.7% for 2021 from 5.8% in May.

The OECD warned Tuesday of an “uneven” global economic recovery and stated that “sizeable uncertainty remains”. It also lowered the growth forecast for the United States but raised the outlook for Europe. The growth forecast for the United States was slashed from 6.9% to 6.0% this year while Europe was raised by 1% to 5.3% from 4.3%.

All in all, markets offered a muted reaction to the announcement with gold lingering below $1770 and the Dollar Index trading marginally below 93.20. Investors are likely to remain on the fence ahead of the heavily anticipated Fed meeting.

Currency spotlight – GBPUSD

The past few days have not been pretty for the GBPUSD. After kissing the 100 Simple Moving Average last week, it has tumbled over 200 pips with prices wobbling around 1.3670 as of writing.

Of course, the major risk event for the Pound this week will be the Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday. The central bank is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged. However, investors will be closely watching what the BoE has to say about the recent jump in inflation. It is also worth keeping in mind that the BoE was split evenly last month on whether the minimum conditions for a rate hike had been met. All eyes will be on whether the two new committee members would impact this balance.

Looking at the technical picture, the GBPUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts. Sustained weakness below 1.3670 could open a path back towards 1.3570. Alternatively, should 1.3670 prove to be reliable support, a rebound towards 1.3750 could be on the cards.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

After staging a strong rebound yesterday, gold has edged slightly higher today with price slowly approaching the $1770. It is safe to say that where the precious metal concludes this week may be heavily influenced by what happens during the Federal Reserve meeting. 

Taking a look at the technical, prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Average. Although bears remain in a position of power, prices may push higher before resuming the downtrend. Key levels of interest can be found at $1800, $1777, and $1745.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.

Most Asian stocks and currencies are advancing, despite the S&P 500 having slipped further from its record high, as investors are fed a string of conflicting signals on the US-China trade deal. Media reports suggest a fresh round of trade talks in Beijing is on the cards, as well as a possible postponement of tariffs slated for December. However, US President Donald Trump’s potential support for the Hong Kong protests may complicate the path towards reconciliation between the world’s two largest economies. Gold declined by 0.5 percent to hover around $1464 at the time of writing, while US 10-year Treasury yields have climbed over two percent since Wednesday.

Investors are mindful of the trade deal’s importance in supporting hopes of a global economic recovery next year, even as they take into account the OECD’s lowered forecasts which point to a lackluster 2.9 percent global GDP for this year and 2020. A further escalation in trade tensions would only undermine the world economy’s growth momentum while amplifying chatter about a global recession, which would weigh negatively on emerging-market assets and bolster demand for safe havens such as Gold and US Treasuries.

EURUSD holds above 1.10 ahead of PMIs

The Euro has remained within a tight range against the US Dollar this week, as investors now look ahead to the PMI data releases out of EU member countries. With Germany having just avoided a technical recession in Q3, investors would be looking for signs whether the worst is over for its manufacturing sector, which last month remained firmly in contraction territory. However, any sign that the manufacturing slump may have bottomed out could translate into limited gains for EURUSD, although more upside might only be crystalised upon greater certainty surrounding the US-China trade deal.

Brent cools after surging to 2-month high

Brent futures breached the $64/bbl mark for the first time since the mid-September attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil assets, before moderating slightly. Brent is set to register three consecutive weeks of gains, due to the relatively staunch optimism that a US-China trade deal remains a likely scenario.

As long as the US and China keep engaging positively with one another, Oil is likely to hang on to most of its recent gains. However, the risk of another flare-up in US-China tensions cannot be fully ruled out at this juncture, which leaves Oil prices vulnerable to developments surrounding the trade-talks.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.