Análisis de mercado diario

Starting today, the Hang Seng Index now features the likes of Alibaba, Xiaomi, and WuXi Biologics, after the new lineup on the 50-member index was announced some three weeks ago. The stock benchmark managed to overcome early losses to climb higher as the new trading week got underway, with all three debutants also attempting to start off on the right foot. At the time of writing, Xiaomi shares are edging higher, while Alibaba and WuXi Biologics are in the red.

Still, the inclusion into the city’s benchmark index had been a boon for the three new entrants since the announcement was made on August 14th. Over the past three weeks, Alibaba’s shares in Hong Kong had climbed by over 12 percent, Wuxi Biologics advanced more than 16 percent, while Xiaomi surged nearly 60 percent!

Asian stock markets are mostly in the green on Monday, as it tries to bring a halt to the selloff in global stocks. The MSCI’s flagship global equity index fell 2.28 percent last week, its largest since the week ending June 12th, which brought an end to a run of five consecutive weekly gains.

Investors’ nerves have been left understandably raw after last week’s selloff, led by US tech stocks. US futures are now mixed, with the slight gains in the Dow Jones futures offset by the declines in their Nasdaq 100 counterparts. European futures however are moving decisively into the green at the time of writing.

The rest of the world will have to tow their own line today, with US markets closed for Labour Day. Perhaps US market participants could use the longer weekend to mull decisively whether to extend the slide in US equities or bring a halt to the latest selloff.

Investors will also be eyeing key event risks, such as the fate of the next round of US fiscal stimulus measures, in perhaps deciding how US equities should fare over the near-term. A longer delay to another injection of support for the US economy however could mean further losses in US tech counters, with the Nasdaq 100 having already flirted with a 10 percent correction last week. The resumption of Brexit talks, as well as the ECB policy decision later this week, all add to the potential event risks over the coming days.

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The Hang Seng index is gaining over one percent at the start of the trading week, following last Friday’s announcement of the index’s new lineup effective September 7.

Alibaba Group Holding, Xiaomi Corp., and Wuxi Biologics Cayman Inc. will be taking the place of Sino Land Co., Want Want China Holdings, and China Shenhua Energy Co. on the list of 50 companies included in the city’s benchmark index. Surprisingly, Meituan Dianping didn’t make the cut this time around.

Since it was first published on July 31, 1964 with a base of 100 points, the Hang Seng index climbed to a record closing price of 33,154.12 on January 26, 2018. However, since that all-time peak, it has declined by 24 percent until last week’s close on August 14. Still, the uptrend over the past 50 years remains intact.

Looking ahead to September 7, 2020, the changes to the its list of 50 constituents could shift about US$30 billion worth of pension funds and ETFs that are linked to the index. The inclusion of these tech behemoths such as Alibaba and Xiaomi will also reduce the index’s reliance on financial stocks.

However, Alibaba will only account for a maximum of five percent of the index, which is the maximum allowed for secondary listings under the rules by Hang Seng Indexes. Recall that Alibaba’s shares listed in Hong Kong in November last year, some five years after it went public on the New York Stock Exchange. The lower weightage comes despite Alibaba’s market cap of HKD 5.3 trillion (US$ 680 billion) in Hong Kong being larger than Tencent’s HKD 4.85 trillion (US$ 630 billion) market value, as of August 14, 2020. Yet, Tencent accounts for some 11.2 percent of the index, AIA Group has a 10.5 percent weighting, with HSBC’s 8.5 percent weight rounding up the top three biggest members of the benchmark index. Still, market observers expect Alibaba’s weightage to gradually be increased.

With this change in three weeks, perhaps it could be the catalyst for the index to break out its multi-year slump and keep it above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). After all, the HSI50 has clearly lagged its regional peers, despite gaining some 20 percent since its March 19 trough which was its lowest level since 2016. For comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific index and Alibaba’s stocks in Hong Kong both climbed 40 percent respectively since March 19.

The addition of Alibaba and Xiaomi could help the HSI50 reflect the outperformance of tech stocks amid the pandemic. After all, the tech sector has been the driving force behind the S&P 500 nearing its record-high of late, despite the economic woes wrought upon by the pandemic.

Exención de responsabilidad: El contenido de este artículo incluye opiniones personales, y no debe ser interpretado como asesoramiento sobre inversión personal y/o de otro tipo y/o una oferta y/o solicitud de ninguna transacción con instrumentos financieros y/o garantías y/o pronóstico de rendimiento futuro. ForexTime (FXTM), sus afiliados, agentes, directores, responsables y empleados no garantizan la precisión, validez, puntualidad o compleción de ninguna información o dato disponible, y no asume ninguna responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida que resulte de cualquier inversión realizada en base a ellos.