Forex News Timeline

23:43 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose from previous -4.6M to 6.037M in March 28
United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose from previous -4.6M to 6.037M in March 28

23:27 Gold slips from highs ahead of Trump’s Liberation Day
Gold prices retreated on Tuesday as traders booked profits, awaiting April 2’s Liberation Day in the US, an event in which President Donald Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs aimed at improving the trade deficit imbalance.

21:33 US Dollar wavers as soft data dims economic outlook
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, trades near the 104.20 area on Tuesday, showing little directional bias after a series of soft US economic data releases.

21:27 Dow Jones stumbles in pre-tariff volatility
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) kicked around the charts on Tuesday, declining after US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results came in worse than expected, but recovered ground after markets pivoted to hoping for a ramp-up in the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle.

21:24 Mexican Peso firms as weak US data undermines US Dollar
The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovers some ground on Tuesday as traders brace for “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when the United States (US) President, Donald Trump, is expected to announce additional tariffs aimed at reducing the trade deficit.

21:24 Forex Today: It is all about “Liberation Day”
The Greenback treaded water just above the 104.00 mark amid omnipresent trade concerns and investors’ steady caution prior to the dubbed “Liberation Day”.

The Greenback treaded water just above the 104.00 mark amid omnipresent trade concerns and investors’ steady caution prior to the dubbed “Liberation Day”.Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, April 2: The US Dollar Index (DXY) alternated gains with losses in the low-104.00s against the backdrop of a generalised weakness in US yields. President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs will be the salient event, seconded by Factory Orders, the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories, and the speech by the Fed’s Kugler.EUR/USD accelerated losses towards the end of the NA session, revisiting the 1.0780 zone, down for the second day in a row. The speeches by the ECB’s Lane and Schnabel will gather importance in the euro docket.GBP/USD charted an irresolute day near 1.2920 amid the flattish mood in the Greenback. Next on tap across the Channel will be the final S&P Global Services PMI on April 3.USD/JPY quickly left behind Monday’s recovery attempt and put the 149.00 support to the test once again. The next event in the Japanese calendar will be the weekly Foreign Bond Investment and the final Jibun Bank Services PMI on April 3.AUD/USD regained balance, set aside two daily drops in a row and traded close to the key 0.6300 barrier. The Ai Group survey is due, seconded by Building Permits, Private House Approvals and the speech by the RBA’s Kent.WTI prices corrected lower after hitting new highs just north of the $72.00 mark per barrel amid steady tariff concerns.Gold prices receded marginally after hitting an all-time high near the $3,150 mark per troy ounce backed by rising fears surrounding tariffs and concerns over the US economy. Silver prices fell for the third consecutive session, hovering around multi-day lows near $33.50 per ounce.

18:41 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair holds near 1.0800 as mixed technical signals stall further momentum
The EUR/USD pair eased slightly on Tuesday’s session after the European close, holding near the 1.0800 area.

EUR/USD trades near the 1.0800 zone after the European session, keeping within Tuesday’s intraday range.Momentum indicators send mixed signals, with bearish short-term pressure offset by long-term bullish trend support.Support awaits at 1.0777 and 1.0730, while resistance is seen around 1.0810–1.0815 levels.The EUR/USD pair eased slightly on Tuesday’s session after the European close, holding near the 1.0800 area. Despite the marginal decline, the pair remains well within its daily range as traders assess diverging technical cues. Price action stays neutral overall, as short-term weakness contrasts with broader bullish structural support. Daily chart Technical indicators remain inconclusive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) leans slightly bearish, suggesting a lack of upside traction. The Bull Bear Power prints close to zero, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 25.7 also implies a non-trending environment. These mixed signals reflect the current sideways nature of the pair. Among moving averages, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0839 provides immediate overhead resistance, reinforcing the near-term bearish bias. However, longer-term indicators like the 100-day SMA at 1.0520 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0731 continue to signal a broader uptrend. The Ichimoku Base Line at 1.0657 remains neutral, confirming the indecisiveness in market momentum. Looking ahead, key support levels are aligned at 1.0777, followed by 1.0731 and 1.0729. On the upside, resistance emerges around 1.0811, 1.0812, and 1.0815. A break on either side of the current range may define the next directional move.

18:34 GBP/USD steady near 1.2920 as weak ISM and tariff fears pressures US Dollar
The Pound Sterling trades with minuscule losses against the US Dollar following the release of the latest Manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), suggesting that business conditions are deteriorating, with companies feeling the impact of tariffs.

17:58 New Zealand GDT Price Index increased to 1.1% from previous 0%
New Zealand GDT Price Index increased to 1.1% from previous 0%

17:50 US ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 49 in March vs. 49.5 expected
The business activity in the US' manufacturing sector contracted in March, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 49 from 50.3 in February.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped into contraction territory below 50 in March.US Dollar Index holds slightly above 104.00 after the data.The business activity in the US' manufacturing sector contracted in March, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 49 from 50.3 in February. This reading came in below the market expectation of 49.5. The Employment Index fell to 44.7 from 47.6 in the same period, highlighting a decrease in the sector's payrolls at an accelerating pace. In the meantime, the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component of the survey, rose to 69.4 from 62.4. Assessing the survey's findings, "demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to demand confusion," said Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth." Market reaction The US Dollar (USD) struggles to gather strength against its rivals following the disappointing PMI data. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.05% on the day at 104.12.

17:41 USD/JPY tumbles to near 149.00 as Trump tariff fears improve Yen’s safe-haven appeal
The USD/JPY pair falls sharply to near 149.00 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.

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The pair faces intense selling pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) outperforms, given its safe-haven status while investors bracing for the release of a detailed reciprocal tariff plan by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.03% 0.05% -0.45% -0.15% -0.36% -0.35% -0.22% EUR -0.03% -0.03% -0.50% -0.23% -0.44% -0.41% -0.29% GBP -0.05% 0.03% -0.50% -0.21% -0.42% -0.41% -0.28% JPY 0.45% 0.50% 0.50% 0.30% 0.09% 0.08% 0.24% CAD 0.15% 0.23% 0.21% -0.30% -0.21% -0.20% -0.07% AUD 0.36% 0.44% 0.42% -0.09% 0.21% 0.01% 0.14% NZD 0.35% 0.41% 0.41% -0.08% 0.20% -0.01% 0.13% CHF 0.22% 0.29% 0.28% -0.24% 0.07% -0.14% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Though the US Dollar (USD) also carries a safe-haven status, it struggles to attract bids as investors expect Trump tariffs will prompt economic risks in the US economy. It will be US importers who will bear the burden of higher tariffs and will pass on to consumers. Such a scenario will significantly diminish the purchasing power of households. According to the Washington Post, the White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose 20% tariffs on most imports to the US. The strength in the Japanese Yen (JPY) is also driven by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in the May policy meeting. With inflation remaining above 2% due to strong consumption and wage growth, the BoJ could deliver a 25 basis-point hike in May," analysts at ING said. Meanwhile, weak US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for March, and soft JOLTS Job Openings data for February has also exerted some pressure on the US Dollar. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in lower at 49.0 against estimates of 49.5 and February's reading of 50.3. A figure below 50.0 suggests that the manufacturing sector activity contracted. US employers posted 7.57 million jobs in February, slightly lower than the expectations of 7.63 million and the prior release of 7.76 million. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

17:40 United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below forecasts (50.1) in April: Actual (49.1)
United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below forecasts (50.1) in April: Actual (49.1)

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.63M) in February: Actual (7.568M)
United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.63M) in February: Actual (7.568M)

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 69.4 above expectations (65) in March
United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 69.4 above expectations (65) in March

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49, below expectations (49.5) in March
United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49, below expectations (49.5) in March

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index fell from previous 47.6 to 44.7 in March
United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index fell from previous 47.6 to 44.7 in March

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index down to 45.2 in March from previous 48.6
United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index down to 45.2 in March from previous 48.6

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.7%)
United States Construction Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

16:46 Copper price is up compared to the beginning of the year – Commerzbank
Despite the losses of the last few days, the Copper price on the Comex is up a good 25 percent since the beginning of the year, almost on a par with tin.

Despite the losses of the last few days, the Copper price on the Comex is up a good 25 percent since the beginning of the year, almost on a par with tin. But on the LME, too, Copper is trading around 10 percent higher than at the beginning of the year, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Copper is still bullish despite the recent decline "We see the latest price decline being caused, on the one hand, by the general increase in risk aversion in the markets and, on the other, as a ‘healthy’ correction after the almost overheated price rise of the previous weeks. However, there are also some supportive news for the Copper price: the improved sentiment indices in China's industry and construction sector, although it has to be admitted that the escalating tariff dispute could soon put a damper on this again." "The disappointing Chilean Copper production, which fell back below 400 thousand tons in February, or 5.5% below the previous year, after reaching a record high of almost 570 thousand tons in December, a good 14% above the previous year; the low or negative treatment charges (TC/RCs) in China. During a conference of Chinese Copper smelters, no official indication was given for the second quarter, but it was said that the supply of concentrate remained very tight." "Some smelters had therefore started maintenance work early and new political protests in front of a Copper mine in Peru. The mine affected is the country's seventh largest, Antapaccay. As a reminder, in 2023/2024, the expansion of the Las Bambas Copper mine was subject to significant delays in the approval process due to protests by indigenous groups."

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.2 above expectations (49.8) in March
United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.2 above expectations (49.8) in March

16:40 European gas price with limited downside – Commerzbank
The European gas price (TTF) has fallen back to around EUR40 per MWh over the past week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

The European gas price (TTF) has fallen back to around EUR40 per MWh over the past week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Scope for further natural gas price weakness is limited "In addition to general economic concerns, a better supply situation is also providing relief. According to Bloomberg data, LNG imports in March reached their highest level for the month since 2017, which should somewhat alleviate fears regarding the current lower filling levels." "According to the GIE, European gas storage facilities were 34% full on 30 March, compared to a 5-year average of 45% at this time. The relatively high gas price compared to last year — it is currently around twice as high as last year — is likely to have helped increase imports." "This in turn means that a permanently high price is necessary to ensure that producers continue to sell large quantities of LNG to Europe. We therefore believe that the scope for further price weakness is limited."

16:37 Brent oil price back at $75 – Commerzbank
The initial market reaction to Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on Russian oil was muted.

The initial market reaction to Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on Russian oil was muted. Oil prices only started to rise in the course of trading yesterday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Trump is set to announce a whole series of tariffs "This morning, Brent reached the $75 per barrel mark for the first time since the end of February. However, it is unlikely to rise much further. This is because the gradual reversal of the voluntary production cuts by eight OPEC+ countries begins today, which will increase the oil supply by just under 140 thousand barrels per day." "At the same time, compensatory production cuts are to be made to offset previous overproduction, which could also reduce the expansion in production. However, last year's experience calls for scepticism regarding the implementation of these cuts." "In addition, US President Trump is set to announce a whole series of tariffs, which could push demand concerns on the oil market back into focus. We can therefore envisage oil prices falling again in the coming days."

16:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces pressure around $34, Trump tariffs remain key
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $34.00 in Tuesday’s North American session.

16:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI down to 46.3 in March from previous 47.8
Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI down to 46.3 in March from previous 47.8

16:27 Stagflation worries push Gold higher – Commerzbank
The price of Gold continues to rush from record high to record high.

The price of Gold continues to rush from record high to record high. It has now broken through the $3,100 per troy ounce mark, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Risk of a setback looms over Gold "The Gold price rose by 19% in the past quarter, which was the strongest quarterly increase since 1986, albeit at a significantly lower price level at the time. The main driver continues to be the high level of uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's US tariff threats." "It remains unclear how broad the reciprocal tariffs announced for 2 April will be, as well as the counter-tariffs that are likely to follow, particularly from Europe and China. The market appears to be particularly fearful of the consequences for the US economy and is therefore increasingly betting on interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve." "As the tariffs also have an inflationary effect, the (expected) US real interest rate is being depressed, which in turn is having a positive impact on the Gold price. In contrast, our economists do not expect the Fed to resume interest rate cuts quickly due to the inflation risks, which is why we continue to see the risk of a setback for Gold."

16:17 GBP/USD: Manufacturing PMI above forecasts but still weak – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering the NA session largely unchanged from Monday’s close, a mid-performer among its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering the NA session largely unchanged from Monday’s close, a mid-performer among its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP little changed on the day "The manufacturing PMI release came in slightly above expectations at 44.9 (vs. 44.6 prev.) but the levels remain well below the expansion/contraction threshold at 50." "Comments from the BoE have focused on rising inflation expectations and unexpectedly persistent wage growth. Markets are currently pricing about 20bpts of easing for the May 8 BoE meeting, offering possible support if policymakers shift toward a neutral stance." "The moderation in momentum reflects the continued consolidation within a one-month range roughly bound between the mid1.28s and levels just above 1.30. Nearer-term price action offers support around 1.2880 and resistance just below 1.30."

16:13 EUR slightly softer but maintains range near 1.08 – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is underperforming with a modest 0.2% decline vs.

Euro (EUR) is underperforming with a modest 0.2% decline vs. the US Dollar (USD), while still trading within a relatively tight range around 1.08, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Near-term price action remains centered around 1.08 "Data releases have offered few surprises with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI coming in at 48.6 (vs. 48.7 exp.) and headline CPI printing 2.2% y/y as expected. Messaging out of the ECB continues to shift toward a pause at the April 17 meeting, which should offer support to the EUR via spreads given that markets are still pricing about 20bps of easing." "Near-term risk will remain centered on trade however, as markets maintain their focus on Wednesdays’ US trade announcement." "Near-term price action remains centered around 1.08 with support in the mid-1.07s and resistance around 1.0850. The moderation in momentum reflects the broader, month-long consolidation bound between the low 1.07 area and the mid-1.09s."

16:11 CAD little changed overnight – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. Spot nudged up to the 1.44 area in overnight trade but remains close to yesterday’s closing levels as markets settle into a holding pattern ahead of US tariffs and the global response to them, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed. Spot nudged up to the 1.44 area in overnight trade but remains close to yesterday’s closing levels as markets settle into a holding pattern ahead of US tariffs and the global response to them, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD trades narrowly around 1.44 "Slower global trade and growth is sure to result which will undercut the appeal of commodity FX—although a lot of bad news is arguably priced into the CAD already at these levels. Fair Value continues to sit a fair way below spot (1.4135) by our estimate but approaching anything close to that sort of level seems unlikely for now." "After a solid rise in the USD yesterday, spot gains have stalled around the 1.44 point. Intraday price signals suggest a high level of indecision at current levels. Long “upper shadows” on the 6-hour candlesticks suggest better selling pressure above the figure but only limited downside movement in the USD has resulted." "More, tight range trading around the figure seems likely this morning. Above 1.400 targets an extension to 1.4450, potentially 1.4520. Support is 1.4330."

16:08 USD trades mixed as markets await tariff news – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to slightly weaker against its major currency peers as markets chop around ahead of tomorrow’s tariff announcement from the White House.

The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to slightly weaker against its major currency peers as markets chop around ahead of tomorrow’s tariff announcement from the White House. Hhigher tariffs will drive a (one-time) increase in the level of US prices and slow US growth; the larger the tariff, the bigger the impact. European stocks are firmer but US equity futures are in the red and bonds are bid, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD mixed to lower versus majors "The Washington Post reported that the tariff plan is centering on a 20% levy on 'most' imports to the US. This is aggressive but the report notes that this a 'draft plan', suggesting nothing is finalized even at this late stage. Things could clearly change but the last-minute nature of strategizing what is a signature policy of the president suggests that issues and potential pitfalls could get overlooked." "Yesterday, the WH press secretary said there would be 'no exemptions at this time' to the reciprocal tariffs the president is due to roll out tomorrow, perhaps providing a glimmer of hope for markets that high tariffs will not persist for any significant period. Yet if that is the case, markets may wonder how the administration can raise the sorts of revenues needed to fund promised tax cuts or effectively encourage manufacturers to reshores supply chains over the long run." "The JPY is outperforming and gold hit a new high ($3149/oz). The DXY is holding its consolidation range but remains prone to more technical weakness at least below support at 103.75/80. This morning’s US data reports may shed more light on the impact of tariff uncertainty on the US economy. ISM Manufacturing may reflect slowing growth and rising price trends across industry. The headline index is forecast to drop back under the expansion/ constriction threshold (50) to 49.5 in March, from 50.3."

16:00 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (March) vs previous 53
Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (March) vs previous 53

15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 4.8% in March 28 from previous 5.6%
United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 4.8% in March 28 from previous 5.6%

15:47 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sellers hold the grip as Liberation Day looms
Financial markets remain wary on Tuesday, although panic seen at the start of the week receded. The EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips below the 1.0800 mark early in the American session, with a slight downward bias as per still finding sellers on intraday spikes.

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0786Upcoming US tariffs announcement on Wednesday keeps investors on their toes.Eurozone inflation eased modestly in March, according to preliminary estimates.EUR/USD under pressure below 1.0800 and poised to extend its slide.
Financial markets remain wary on Tuesday, although panic seen at the start of the week receded. The EUR/USD pair trades a handful of pips below the 1.0800 mark early in the American session, with a slight downward bias as per still finding sellers on intraday spikes.Concerns keep revolving around United States (US) tariffs. President Donald Trump threats left and right with levies on friends and enemies, beyond the already scheduled reciprocal tariffs, set to be announced on Wednesday. US President Trump is set to announce details on the so-called Liberation Day, with speculative interest uncertain on the extend of upcoming levies.Nevertheless, global stocks shrugged of the negative tone, and most Asian and European indexes trade in the green. Wall Street futures, however, maintains the soft tone.Meanwhile, the Eurozone (EU) released the preliminary estimate of the March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which rose at an annual pace of 2.2%, as expected, easing from the 2.3% posted in February. Core annual HICP was up 2.4% against the 2.5% expected and the previous 2.6%.Other than that, the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) published the final estimates of the March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the region, most of which suffered downward revisions. The final EU Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 48.6 vs the previously estimated 48.7.The upcoming American session will bring the March US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the final S&P Global estimate of manufacturing output. Additionally, the country will publish the February JOLTS Job Openings report, relevant ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures scheduled for Friday.EUR/USD short-term technical outlookFrom a technical point of view, the daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that sellers hold the grip. The pair develops below a still bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic resistance at around 1.0850. At the same time, technical indicators extend their slides, although with limited downward strength. The Momentum indicator is already below its midline, in line with another leg south, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 54. Finally, a flat 200 SMA provides support at around 1.0730.The EUR/USD pair’s 4-hour chart suggests the risk skews to the downside. The pair is actually sliding below a flat 20 SMA, while the 100 SMA acts as a weekly roof at around 1.0850. At the same time, technical indicators have turned lower, although the downward momentum is limited, while indicators stand between neutral and bearish territory. Additional slides are likely on a break below 1.0765, where buyers surged on Friday.Support levels: 1.0765 1.0730 1.0690Resistance levels: 10850 1.0885 1.0925

15:34 Reuters Poll: 19 of 51 FX strategists concerned about the USD's safe-haven status
19 of 51 FX strategists polled by Reuters noted that they are concerned about the US Dollar's (USD) status as a safe-haven.

15:26 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales up to 49493 in March from previous 47978
South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales up to 49493 in March from previous 47978

14:39 China: Q1 growth likely remained solid at 5.2% y/y – Standard Chartered
March PMIs beat market expectations, although Q1 momentum softened from Q4-2024.

March PMIs beat market expectations, although Q1 momentum softened from Q4-2024. We raise our 2025 growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% on Q1 outperformance, firm policy assurances. CPI deflation likely eased in March on base effects; the import contraction may have persisted, Standard Chartered's economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding report. Raising GDP growth forecasts "China’s official manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in March from 50.2 in February as demand improved, consistent with the Caixin PMI and our SMEI survey. The new orders and new export orders indices rebounded to nearly one-year highs, supporting solid production activity. Meanwhile, the average manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.9 in Q1 from 50.2 in Q4-2024. In addition, the average services PMI fell 0.5pts from Q4-2024 to 50.2 in Q1, indicating a q/q slowdown." "With both January-February real activity and March PMIs beating expectations, we raise our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 5.2% y/y from 4.8% prior, with q/q growth slowing to 1.3% from 1.6% in Q4-2024. Imports may have continued to decline, resulting in a sizeable trade surplus. While China remains vulnerable to additional US tariffs and restrictions, the authorities’ commitment to roll out more stimulus when needed should help curtail downside risks. We further revise our quarterly growth forecasts to 5.1% y/y for Q2 (4.7% prior), 4.8% for Q3 (4.6%) and 4.2% for Q4 (4.1%); as such, we now forecast 2025 growth at 4.8% (4.5% prior)." "We expect CPI inflation to have stayed negative in March on falling food and fuel prices, albeit easing from February levels, thanks to base effects. Growth in CNY loans outstanding likely eased further in March on soft loan demand and the ongoing debt-to-bond swap programme. Meanwhile, government bond financing remained solid, supporting a m/m increase in new total social financing (TSF)."

14:16 AUD/USD trades flat around 0.6250 after RBA’s monetary policy decision
The AUD/USD pair turns sideways around 0.6250 in Tuesday’s European session.

14:03 US Dollar stuck ahead of Trump’s tariff ‘Liberation Day’
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is consolidating further this week with highs and lows coming in closer to one another at the 104.00 round level this Tuesday.

13:46 USD/CNH seems firmer on the day – BBH
USD/CNH is firmer on heightened trade-related uncertainties, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD/CNH is firmer on heightened trade-related uncertainties, BBH's FX analysts report. Growth outlook remains unimpressive "The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved in March to a four-month high at 51.2 (consensus: 50.6) vs. 50.8 in February." "Nevertheless, the growth outlook will remain unimpressive as long as policymakers fail to address the root cause of weak consumption spending activity: low household income levels, high precautionary savings, and high levels of household debt."

13:43 USD/CNH: Upward momentum has slowed – UOB Group
Brief decline did not lead to a clear increase in downward momentum; USD is likely to trade in a 7.2550/7.2750 range.

Brief decline did not lead to a clear increase in downward momentum; USD is likely to trade in a 7.2550/7.2750 range. In the longer run, upward momentum has slowed; a breach of 7.2500 would indicate that USD has moved into a range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Below 7.2500, USD to move into a range trading phase 24-HOUR VIEW: "USD dropped to 7.2532 yesterday. The decline was, however, brief, as it rebounded quickly to close largely unchanged at 7.2651 (-0.06%). The brief decline did not lead to a clear increase in downward momentum. Today, instead of continuing to decline, USD is more likely to trade in a 7.2550/7.2750 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "When USD was at 7.2655 last Wednesday (26 Mar), we highlighted that 'there appears to be enough momentum for USD to rise to 7.2820.' After USD rose to 7.2822, we highlighted on Thursday (27 Mar, spot at 7.2765) that 'momentum has improved further, and USD could continue to rise to 7.2980.' Yesterday, USD fell to a low of 7.2532. Although upward momentum has slowed, only a breach of 7.2500 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from previously) would indicate that USD has moved into a range trading phase."

13:38 AUD/USD: RBA leaves the cash rate target unchanged – BBH
AUD/USD retraced some of yesterday’s sharp losses triggered by the broad sell-off in risk assets, BBH's FX analysts report.

AUD/USD retraced some of yesterday’s sharp losses triggered by the broad sell-off in risk assets, BBH's FX analysts report. Board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing "As was widely expected, the RBA left the cash rate target unchanged at 4.10%. However, the RBA signaled it’s in no hurry to resume easing. First, the RBA scrapped the sentence from the February statement that 'the Board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing'." "Second, the RBA noted 'the continued decline in underlying inflation is welcome, but there are nevertheless risks on both sides and the Board is cautious about the outlook'. RBA Governor Michele Bullock added during the press conference that the Board does not have '100% confidence' that inflation is moving sustainably towards the midpoint of the 2–3% target range." "Bullock confirmed that the decision to hold was a consensus one and there was no explicit rate cut discussion. Cash rate futures scaled back odds of a 25bps cut at the May 20 meeting to 70% from 80% prior to the rate announcement. Ahead of the May policy meeting, two labor market prints and the Q1 CPI data will help shape near-term RBA rate expectations. The next Statement on Monetary Policy will also be published at the May 20 meeting."

13:34 White House aides draft proposal to impose tariffs of around 20 % on most imports to US – WaPo
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday that White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the United States, per Reuters.

13:27 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 – UOB Group
Instead of continuing to decline, US Dollar (USD) is more likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 vs Japanese Yen (JPY).

Instead of continuing to decline, US Dollar (USD) is more likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD appears to have moved into a 148.40/151.00 consolidation range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD appears to have moved into a consolidation range 24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, USD fell to a low of 148.68 and then staged a strong and sharp rebound to close largely unchanged at 149.95 (+0.09%). The rebound in oversold conditions suggest instead of continuing to decline, USD is more likely to trade in a range today, probably between 149.00 and 150.50." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday, 26 Mar, when USD was at 149.90, we highlighted that 'while there is scope for USD to rise further, it may find the 151.00/151.30 resistance zone difficult to break.' After USD rose to a high of 151.15, in our latest update from last Friday (28 Mar, spot at 151.00), we highlighted that 'if USD breaks and holds above 151.30, it could trigger additional gains toward 152.30.' USD did not break above 151.30, but instead, it fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level at 149.50 yesterday. USD appears to have moved into a consolidation phase. For the time being, we expected USD to trade in a 148.40/151.00 range."

13:22 USD/JPY is trading close to 150.00 – BBH
USD/JPY is consolidating around 150.00, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD/JPY is consolidating around 150.00, BBH's FX analysts report. BOJ to hike rates by less than 75bps over the next three years "Japan’s Q1 Tankan business sentiment survey reinforce the case for a gradual Bank of Japan (BOJ) normalization cycle. The all industries business conditions index printed at 15 for a second consecutive quarter, highest since Q4 2018, and points to a further recovery in real GDP growth. The swaps market still implies less than 75bps of total BOJ rate hikes over the next three years which is an ongoing headwind for JPY." "The details of the Tankan survey showed the large manufacturing index dipped in line with consensus by 0.2 points to a one year low at 12 but the small manufacturing index unexpectedly increased by 1 point to 2 (consensus: -1)." "Meanwhile, the large and small non-manufacturing indexes are both at their highest level since Q3 1991. Finally, inflation expectations for all enterprises rose 0.1pts over the next one, three and five years to 2.5%, 2.4%, and 2.3%, respectively."

13:11 EUR/USD edges higher after preliminary Eurozone HICP release, Trump’s tariffs remain key
EUR/USD attracts some bids and ticks higher to near 1.0820 during the European trading session on Tuesday after the release of the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the Eurozone Unemployment Rate for February.

12:53 Oil prices are trading higher – Danske Bank
Oil prices have rebounded lately, Danske Bank's FX analyst Stefan Mellin reports.

Oil prices have rebounded lately, Danske Bank's FX analyst Stefan Mellin reports. Market is worried about sanctions and related supply side effects "A host of factors are driving the market including trade woes, growth concerns, halt in the USD sell-off and new oil-related sanctions. The fact that oil prices are rising in this environment to us suggests that the market is more worried about sanctions and related supply side effects." "However, we doubt this can drive oil prices much higher since OPEC+ has started hiking output. Rather clarity on global trade policy and preferably fewer tariffs than what has been pre-announced so far could push oil prices another leg higher."

12:48 NZD/USD: Oversold decline has not stabilised – UOB Group
Oversold decline has not stabilised; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could drop further, but a sustained break below 0.5640 is unlikely.

Oversold decline has not stabilised; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could drop further, but a sustained break below 0.5640 is unlikely. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum suggests NZD is likely to continue to head lower; the major support at 0.5610 may not come into view so quickly, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD is likely to continue to head lower 24-HOUR VIEW: "After trading in a range for a few days, NZD lurched lower yesterday, falling sharply to a low of 0.5649. While oversold, the decline has not stabilised. Today, provided that NZD holds below 0.5710 (minor resistance is at 0.5690), it could drop further toward the significant support level at 0.5640. Given the oversold conditions, a sustained break below this level is unlikely." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our most recent narrative from last Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 0.5730), we highlighted that NZD 'is likely to edge lower toward the major support zone between 0.5650 and 0.5670.' We also highlighted that 'while the likelihood of NZD breaking this support zone is not high, the downward bias will remain intact provided that NZD remains below 0.5770 (‘strong resistance’ level).' NZD subsequently traded in a range, holding below 0.5770 until yesterday, when it plummeted below the support zone, reaching a low of 0.5649. The price action has resulted in a rapid increase in momentum, and we continue to expect NZD to trade lower. However, the next support at 0.5610 may not come into view so quickly. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.5725 from 0.5770."

12:44 AUD/USD risks declining further – Societe Generale
AUD/USD downtrend has stalled after reaching 0.6080 in February.

AUD/USD downtrend has stalled after reaching 0.6080 in February. It has evolved within a base however a breakout from this consolidation is crucial for confirming a larger up move, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. 0.6185/0.6165 and 0.6080 are next short-term supports "The pair recently failed to overcome the upper limit of its range near 0.6410 resulting in a pullback. If it fails to cross last week high of 0.6330, there could be a risk of continuation in decline. Last month low of 0.6185/0.6165 and 0.6080 are next short-term supports."

12:35 SNB continues to intervene only cautiously – Commerzbank
Yesterday's figures on the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) foreign exchange interventions, which amounted to around 100 million in the fourth quarter, once again confirmed that the SNB is currently intervening in the foreign exchange market rather cautiously, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.

Yesterday's figures on the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) foreign exchange interventions, which amounted to around 100 million in the fourth quarter, once again confirmed that the SNB is currently intervening in the foreign exchange market rather cautiously, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. SNB is likely to be comfortable with the franc at the moment "In total, the SNB bought around 1.2 billion CHF in foreign currencies last year to weaken the franc - not a particularly large sum compared with the 22.6 billion CHF in foreign currency sales in the fourth quarter 2023 alone, when the SNB was still trying to strengthen the franc." "But the new figures will have come as little surprise to market participants. While the SNB has emphasised its willingness to intervene more forcefully in the foreign exchange market if necessary, it has also repeatedly warned of the risks of an excessively large balance sheet." "And with Donald Trump in the White House and the risk of being hit with tariffs for intervening to weaken the franc, the SNB is likely to remain cautious in the coming months. However, with EUR/CHF now trading higher than at the end of February due to a stronger euro, the SNB is likely to be more comfortable with the franc at the moment than it was last year."

12:30 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:29 AUD/USD: Chance to retest the 0.6220 level – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6220 level; any further decline is not expected to reach 0.6185.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6220 level; any further decline is not expected to reach 0.6185. Increase in momentum indicates AUD could continue to decline, but it is too early to determine if it can reach 0.6185, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Momentum indicates AUD can continue to decline 24-HOUR VIEW: "AUD fell sharply yesterday, dropping to a low of 0.6219 before closing on a weak note at 0.6250 (-0.64%). While the rapid drop appears to be overdone, there is no sign of stabilisation just yet. Today, AUD could retest the 0.6220 level, but given the oversold conditions, any further decline is not expected to reach the major support at 0.6185. Resistance is at 0.6265, followed by 0.6280." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (26 Mar, spot at 0.6305), wherein AUD 'appears range-bound for now, likely between 0.6240 and 0.6355.' AUD subsequently traded sideways until yesterday, when it plummeted to a low of 0.6219. The sharp drop has resulted in an increase in downward momentum, and AUD is likely to continue to decline. Currently, it is too early to determine if AUD has enough momentum to reach last month’s low, near 0.6185. To sustain the buildup in momentum, AUD must remain below the ‘strong resistance’ level, currently at 0.6300."

12:25 USD: Data tests before tariffs – ING
The currency market caught up with the tariff threat at the start of this week, with the dollar stronger across the board, the yen supported, and high-beta currencies under pressure.

The currency market caught up with the tariff threat at the start of this week, with the dollar stronger across the board, the yen supported, and high-beta currencies under pressure. Again, the big underperformers have been AUD and NZD, likely on the view that China will remain a big focus of US protectionism, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes. DXY can move above 104.50 before the big announcement "Despite yesterday’s moves, the dollar has plenty of room to rally should tomorrow’s tariff announcement surprise on the hawkish (risk-negative) side, but remains at risk of data-led downside pressure." "The US macro calendar will have a big say on today’s FX moves, but if we don’t see any data surprise we would not fight the dollar’s tentative recovery, as the latest comments from the US administration are quelling hopes for a lenient tariff announcement tomorrow. We could see DXY move above 104.50 before tomorrow’s big announcement." "JOLTS job openings for February are expected to show a moderate decline to 7.6 million today, with some focus also on the layoff figures. The ISM manufacturing index for March is expected to drop back below 50.0, mirroring the deterioration in sentiment in the sector given tariff uncertainty."

12:18 ECB’s Rehn: If data verifies baseline, the right reaction should be to cut in April
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on the Bank’s interest rate outlook on Tuesday.

12:15 Gold price hits new all-time high ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher again for a second day this week and for the first day of the second quarter of 2025.

12:07 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session.

12:06 USD/CAD consolidates near multi-week top, below 1.4400 ahead of Trump’s tariffs
The USD/CAD pair touches a two-and-half-week top on Tuesday, though it struggles to find acceptance or build on the intraday uptick beyond the 1.4400 mark.

12:04 Eurozone Preliminary HICP inflation ticks down to 2.2% YoY in February as expected
The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annual pace of 2.2% in March after increasing by 2.3% in February, the official data released by Eurostat showed Tuesday. The data matched the market forecast of 2.2% in the reported period.

The Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annual pace of 2.2% in March after increasing by 2.3% in February, the official data released by Eurostat showed Tuesday. The data matched the market forecast of 2.2% in the reported period.The core HICP accelerated 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) in March, compared with a 2.6% growth in February, missing the 2.5% market estimate.more to come ....

12:02 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.1%, below expectations (6.2%) in February
Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.1%, below expectations (6.2%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 1% in March from previous 0.5%
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 1% in March from previous 0.5%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 0.6% in March from previous 0.4%
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 0.6% in March from previous 0.4%

12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 8.6% (February) vs previous 8.7%
Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 8.6% (February) vs previous 8.7%

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in March
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in March

11:57 BoE’s Greene: Rising inflation expectations are a concern
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Tuesday that “rising inflation expectations are a concern.”

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Tuesday that “rising inflation expectations are a concern.”Further commentsInflation expectations remain anchored.Slack is opening in the UK labour market.Disinflation continues to be underway.Wage growth is above what our models can explain.Worried supply is weaker than expected.I am more worried about supply than demand.It's possible people are now more sensitive to inflation.The risk is that this leads to second-round effects.There are moderate upside risks to gas prices.The quality of UK stats is another source of uncertainty.Wage growth is not slowing as fast as I'd like to see.Tariffs on balance are disinflationary for UK.Trade diversion could happen very quickly. Related news Pound Sterling flattens against US Dollar as investors await new suite of Trump’s tariffs UK inflation cools down Pound GBP/USD: Any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880 – UOB Group

11:49 RBA: No change due to caution – Commerzbank
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% this morning.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% this morning. In its statement, the RBA made it clear that its priority was to return inflation to the middle of its 2-3% target range and that there were still too many uncertainties about the economic outlook, both in Australia and globally, to cut rates again at this time, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. RBA to make a move at the next meeting in May "On the domestic front, the RBA is particularly concerned that the labour market remains very tight and that persistently low unemployment and weak productivity could lead to wage growth that could reignite inflation. On the global front, the central bank is particularly concerned about a potential trade war, which could weaken the economy but still fuel inflation." "More surprisingly, the central bank says that there is uncertainty about the time lag with which changes in monetary policy take effect. The statement itself is absolutely correct – but it can hardly refer to the interest rate hikes, because the majority of them took place more than two years ago. And the RBA only cut rates six weeks ago, and then only by 25 basis points. In the current global environment of high uncertainty, it will be probably be difficult to discern the impact of a single 25 basis point move at all, regardless of the time lag. It would have to cut rates by a larger amount." "In the coming weeks, much will depend on the development of the labour market, which has shown some weakness recently. I continue to believe that both the economy and inflation will prove less robust than the RBA currently anticipates, and therefore expect a rate move at the next meeting in May."

11:47 Oil: Secondary tariff threat – ING
Oil prices rose yesterday amid growing threats to oil supplies, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Oil prices rose yesterday amid growing threats to oil supplies, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Oil prices to push much higher "ICE Brent settled almost 2.8% higher after with President Trump threatened secondary tariffs on Russia and Iran. This follows an executive order last week taking similar action against Venezuela. For now, it appears to be just a threat to Russia and Iran. However, if it becomes a reality, it creates plenty of upside risk to the market given the significant oil export volumes from both countries." "Russia exports around 7.4m b/d of crude oil and refined products, while Iran exports around 1.4m b/d of crude oil. This tool could be very effective in persuading buyers to shun the targeted oil, with the impact on the buying country’s economy potentially far outweighing the benefits of buying discounted crude oil." "The key buyers of Russian crude oil are China and India, whose top export markets are the US. However, taking such action, particularly against Russia, would make it harder for Trump to lower oil prices, as promised. Instead, it would push prices much higher."

11:44 US: Looming tariff threats put Asia at risk – UOB Group
As the 2 April 'Liberation Day' approaches, financial markets have turned more jittery with exporters and businesses bracing for potentially hard-hitting import tariffs imposed by US President Trump, UOB Group's economists Suan Teck Kin and Alvin Liew note.

As the 2 April 'Liberation Day' approaches, financial markets have turned more jittery with exporters and businesses bracing for potentially hard-hitting import tariffs imposed by US President Trump, UOB Group's economists Suan Teck Kin and Alvin Liew note. Market in turmoil ahead of 2 Apr 'Liberation Day' "Ahead of the 2 Apr 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement by US President Trump, it is highly uncertain how Asian exporters will be affected, as a number of them are likely to be on the 'Dirty 15' list, including Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India, Thailand, and Malaysia." "The upcoming tariff announcements could be a combination of: 1) countryspecific tariff, e.g. the earlier announcement of 25% imposed on all imports from Canada and Mexico; 2) reciprocal tariff i.e. the US would implement tariff rate on imports from others that match tariffs that those countries impose on US products; and 3) product specific, e.g. the 25% duty on all automobile imports into the US that is slated to take effect from 2 April." "For Asian countries, particularly ASEAN-5, reciprocal tariff would be relatively easier to manage, since the average rates in those countries hover around 7- 8%. However, product specific tariff rates, especially in the double-digit range, could cause significant impact to these exporters and their supply chain partners. It is too early to assess the potential implications at this point, and we will await 2 April for better clarity."

11:39 GBP/USD: Any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is under mild downward pressure vs US Dollar (USD); it is expected to edge lower, but any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is under mild downward pressure vs US Dollar (USD); it is expected to edge lower, but any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP is under mild downward pressure 24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP dropped to 1.2886 yesterday, closing slightly lower at 1.2918 (-0.10%). The price action has resulted in a modest increase in downward momentum. Today, we expect GBP to edge lower, but as momentum is not strong, any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880. The major support at 1.2850 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 1.2940; a breach of 1.2960 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (28 Mar, spot at 1.2950), wherein 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050.' There is no change in our view."

11:36 Euro bulls must now hope for the ECB – Commerzbank
Yesterday brought us three pieces of news that could be relevant for the euro.

Yesterday brought us three pieces of news that could be relevant for the euro. Italian inflation in March was much higher than expected, while German inflation was slightly lower. In France, Marine Le Pen was found guilty of embezzling EU funds and sentenced to prison and a fine, as well as banned from standing in elections for the next five years. Finally, reports emerged overnight that an increasing number of ECB Governing Council members are open to the idea of leaving interest rates unchanged in April. As a result, market expectations were slightly corrected and the euro gained some ground, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. ECB can leave interest rates unchanged "With the Dutch figures published this morning, almost 85% of the figures for the euro area as a whole are now known. The figures so far point to slight upside risks with 0.68% for month-on-month and 2.23% for year-on-year inflation (0.6% and 2.2% are expected). However, as we are not the only ones to derive an estimate for the euro area as a whole from the already known figures, the surprise should be limited – if it comes at all and the missing 15% does not prevent it." "In France, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National, was found guilty of embezzling EU funds and sentenced to prison and a fine, as well as banned from standing in elections for the next five years. The latter is immediate and cannot be delayed by a possible lengthy appeal process through the courts. This is a major setback for Le Pen, especially with the French presidential elections in 2027, and fuels fears that France is becoming ungovernable, which does not bode well for the euro area." "This ECB point is likely to be the most important for the euro for the time being. Now that the appreciation of the euro in the wake of the German fiscal package has corrected somewhat in recent days, the euro's future strength is likely to depend primarily on how much the ECB delays further interest rate cuts. If the ECB refrains from cutting rates in April and instead emphasises the uncertainties regarding inflation due to possible US tariffs, this would be a strong signal for the euro. Anyone who is bullish on the euro will be hoping for further reports between now and then that the ECB wants to take a slower approach."

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered at 44.9 above expectations (44.6) in March
United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered at 44.9 above expectations (44.6) in March

11:26 EUR/USD: Expected to trade in a sideways range between 1.0780 and 1.0840 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a sideways range between 1.0780 and 1.0840 vs US Dollar (USD).

Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a sideways range between 1.0780 and 1.0840 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase; EUR is expected to trade in a 1.0730/1.0845 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase 24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR traded between 1.0783 and 1.0849 yesterday, closing little changed at 1.0817 (-0.09%). The price movements did not result in any increase in either downward or upward momentum. Today, we expect EUR to trade sideways, probably between 1.0780 and 1.0840." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest update from last Friday (28 Mar), when EUR was at 1.0800, we indicated that 'if EUR breaks above 1.0825, it would mean that it is likely to trade in a range instead of declining.' EUR subsequently rose above 1.0825. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, and EUR is expected to trade in a 1.0730/1.0895 range for now."

11:22 EUR: CPI can keep markets dovish on ECB – ING
EUR/USD traded briefly below 1.080 yesterday before revering later in the session.

EUR/USD traded briefly below 1.080 yesterday before revering later in the session. The euro remains rather resilient to the whole tariff story anyway: despite the EU being among the biggest victims of this week’s round of tariffs, European currencies are faring much better than China proxies or CAD, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. A move to 1.070-1.073 can be on the cards in the coming days "What also may have helped the euro is a Bloomberg report suggesting that more ECB officials are ready to accept a pause in April. There is a possibility the ECB tipped the media as policymakers were uncomfortable with markets pricing in over 20bp of easing for the April meeting yesterday morning. The ECB probably wants to avoid a situation where it is led by market pricing to take a decision (cut) with the alternative (hold) being delivering a blow to an already turbulent bond market." "Anyway, the implied probability of a cut as of this morning is still high (74%). We’ll see what the flash CPI report for March tells us today, but the indications were modestly dovish from Germany yesterday and the consensus is for a decline from 2.6% to 2.5% in core eurozone inflation." "We remain generally cautious about following any EUR/USD rally into the tariff event and instead see mostly downside risks, barring any meaningful US data surprise. We still think a move to 1.070-1.073 can be on the cards in the coming days if the US goes ahead with an aggressive tariff plan."

11:09 Austria Unemployment fell from previous 347.4K to 316.3K in March
Austria Unemployment fell from previous 347.4K to 316.3K in March

11:08 Austria Unemployment Rate down to 7.4% in March from previous 8.1%
Austria Unemployment Rate down to 7.4% in March from previous 8.1%

11:01 Italy Unemployment below expectations (6.3%) in February: Actual (5.9%)
Italy Unemployment below expectations (6.3%) in February: Actual (5.9%)

11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52.6 to 55 in March
Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52.6 to 55 in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (48.7) in March
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (48.7) in March

11:00 JOLTS job openings expected to dip slightly in February as markets eye March employment data
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the March employment report on Friday.Job openings are forecast to decline toward 7.63 million in February.The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting policy.The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in February, alongside the number of layoffs and quits. JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since coming in above 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In September 2024, the number of jobs declined to 7.44 million, marking the lowest reading since January 2021, before rising to 7.8 million and 8.09 million in October and November, respectively. At the end of 2024, the data came in at 7.5 million before rebounding to 7.74 million in January. What to expect in the next JOLTS report? Markets expect job openings to decline to 7.63 million on the last business day of February. Following the March policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that the Unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level and labor market conditions remain solid. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that Fed policymakers project a 4.4% unemployment rate at the end of 2025, compared to 4.3% in December’s SEP. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated that the labor market seemed to be broadly in balance. It is important to note that while the JOLTS data refers to the end of February, the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for March. Additionally, market participants could refrain from taking large positions based on this data before US President Donald Trump announces the details of the new tariff regime on Wednesday. In February, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000, falling short of the market expectation for an increase of 160,000. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets are pricing in a less-than-20% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in May. Although the job openings data is unlikely to influence the Fed rate outlook, a significant negative surprise, with a reading at or below 7 million, could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, the market positioning suggests that the USD doesn’t have a lot of room on the upside, even if the data comes in better than forecast. "Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million,” the BLS said in its January JOLTS report. “Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.” Economic Indicator JOLTS Job Openings JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month. Read more. Next release: Tue Apr 01, 2025 14:00 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 7.63MPrevious: 7.74MSource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD? Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD: “EUR/USD clings to a bullish stance but lacks momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holding slightly above 50. On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a key support level at 1.0730 before 1.0585-1.0570 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the October-January downtrend).” “Looking north, the first resistance level could be spotted at 1.0900 (static level) ahead of 1.1000 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.1100 (static level).” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (48.3) in March
Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (48.3) in March

10:53 Pound Sterling flattens against US Dollar as investors await new suite of Trump’s tariffs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) ranges around 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session.

10:53 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

10:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (48.9) in March
France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (48.9) in March

10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations (48) in March
Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations (48) in March

10:40 EC President von der Leyen: EU has strong plan to retaliate against US tariffs if necessary
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday, “we do not necessarily want to retaliate. But if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to do so and we will use it.”

10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (49.8) in March: Actual (48.9)
Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (49.8) in March: Actual (48.9)

10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50) in March: Actual (49.5)
Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50) in March: Actual (49.5)

10:05 USD/CHF retreats below 0.8850 as Trump’s tariffs loom
The USD/CHF pair softens to near 0.8840 during the early European session on Tuesday.

09:47 Forex Today: Markets remain on edge, await US tariff announcements
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 1:

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In the European session, March inflation data from the Euro area will be watched closely and the US economic calendar will feature JOLTS Job Openings data for February and ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for March. US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.06% 0.01% -0.57% 0.53% 0.47% 1.00% 0.09% EUR 0.06% 0.06% -0.53% 0.58% 0.55% 1.05% 0.14% GBP -0.01% -0.06% -0.60% 0.52% 0.49% 1.00% 0.04% JPY 0.57% 0.53% 0.60% 1.11% 1.09% 1.58% 0.66% CAD -0.53% -0.58% -0.52% -1.11% -0.02% 0.47% -0.48% AUD -0.47% -0.55% -0.49% -1.09% 0.02% 0.50% -0.42% NZD -1.00% -1.05% -1.00% -1.58% -0.47% -0.50% -0.95% CHF -0.09% -0.14% -0.04% -0.66% 0.48% 0.42% 0.95% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The US Dollar (USD) benefited from the risk-averse market atmosphere in the first half of the day on Monday. Following a bearish opening, Wall Street's main indexes staged a rebound later in the American session and limited the USD's gains. US President Donald Trump reiterated late Monday that his reciprocal tariffs plan will target all countries.During the Asian trading hours, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that it left the policy rate unchanged at 4.1%, as expected. In its policy statement, the RBA noted that the uncertainty about the outlook abroad remains significant. While speaking in the post-meeting press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said policymakers did not discuss a rate cut and explained that they will be waiting for more data before taking the next step. After losing nearly 0.7% on Monday, AUD/USD holds its ground and trades marginally higher on the day at around 0.6250 in the European morning. Meanwhile, the data from China showed that the Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February.EUR/USD struggles to gain traction and trades near 1.0800 after posting small losses on Monday.GBP/USD recovered modestly after dipping below 1.2900 on Monday and ended the day marginally lower. The pair stays relatively quiet and fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.2920 to start the European session.The Unemployment Rate in Japan edged lower to 2.4% in February from 2.5% in January. Other data from Japan showed that the Tankan Large Industry Capex rose by 3.1% in the first quarter. USD/JPY showed no reaction to these data and was last seen moving sideways slightly below 150.00.Gold set a new all-time high near $3,150 during the Asian session on Tuesday after rising more than 1% on Monday. XAU/USD corrects lower toward $3,130 in the European morning.
Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

09:31 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM): 53.6 (March) vs 53.5
Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM): 53.6 (March) vs 53.5

09:30 Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.5%) in February: Actual (1.6%)
Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.5%) in February: Actual (1.6%)

09:08 EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0800, eyes on Eurozone inflation data, ECB’s Lagarde speech
The EUR/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.0815 during the early European session on Tuesday.

09:00 Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 50.2 to 48.2 in March
Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped from previous 50.2 to 48.2 in March

09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.9% in March
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) remains unchanged at 3.9% in March

09:00 United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in March: Actual (0%)
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in March: Actual (0%)

08:35 India Gold price today: Gold kicks off FY 2025-26 with a bang
At the onset of the new fiscal year (FY) 2025-2026 in India, the Gold price stands tall on Tuesday after gaining 32% in FY 2024-2025.

08:34 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds steady above $34.00, seems poised to climb further
Silver (XAG/USD) oscillates in a narrow trading band following the previous day's good two-way price moves, though it holds above the $34.00 mark through the Asian session on Tuesday.

08:31 Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) climbed from previous -8.2% to -6.5% in March
Australia RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) climbed from previous -8.2% to -6.5% in March

08:00 Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 50 to 49.6 in March
Netherlands, The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 50 to 49.6 in March

07:57 WTI climbs above $71.00 as Trump threatens Russia with oil tariffs
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $71.35 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

07:37 NZD/USD holds steady around 0.5675-80 area, above multi-week low ahead of Trump’s tariffs
The NZD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 0.5650-0.5645 region or a nearly four-week low and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Tuesday.

07:37 RBA’s Bullock: Board did not discuuss a rate cut
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is addressing a press conference following the announcement of the April monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

07:33 Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) down to -0.5% in February from previous 5.3%
Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) down to -0.5% in February from previous 5.3%

07:27 FX option expiries for Apr 1 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 1 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.0840 590m1.0860 411m1.0900 615m1.0930 937mGBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2850 481mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 150.00 2bAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6265 410mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5700 460m0.5930 598m

06:47 Gold price buying remains unabated ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement
Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's breakout momentum beyond the $3,100 mark and gains positive traction for the fourth successive day on Tuesday.

06:45 AUD/JPY flat lines around 93.70, moves little after RBA decides to leave rates unchanged
The AUD/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the 93.00 neighborhood, or over a two-week low, and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Tuesday.

06:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (4.1%)
Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (4.1%)

05:53 Australian Dollar regains traction ahead of RBA rate decision
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains traction on Tuesday, bolstered by the upbeat Chinese economic data.

05:42 Japan PM Ishiba: Need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation
Japan Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Tuesday that “we need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation, which is imminent task and key growth strategy for Japan.”

Japan Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Ishiba said on Tuesday that “we need to achieve wage gains that exceed pace of inflation, which is imminent task and key growth strategy for Japan.”Additional quotes"Will compile measures to push up Japan’s minimum wage by May.""We will deploy all available means to broaden wage hikes across the country."Market reactionAt the press time, USD/JPY loses 0.13% on the day to trade near 149.80.

05:19 Japanese Yen trades with mild positive bias against USD; bulls seem non-committed
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's retracement slide from over a one-week high.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through.Concerns that Trump’s tariffs would impact Japan’s industries cap gains for the JPY.The divergent BoJ-Fed expectations favor USD/JPY bears amid subdued USD demand.The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's retracement slide from over a one-week high. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Tankan survey showed that Japanese enterprises raised their inflation forecasts for one year, three years, and five years ahead. This, in turn, backs the case for more rate increases from the BoJ and turns out to be a key factor supporting the JPY. Moreover, a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick keeps the USD/JPY pair depressed below the 150.00 psychological mark. The JPY bulls, however, lack conviction amid a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven currency. Apart from this, receding expectations that the BoJ would raise the policy rate at a faster pace, amid worries about an economic slowdown on the back of US tariffs, act as a headwind for the JPY. Nevertheless, the BoJ's hawkish outlook still marks a big divergence in comparison to bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY remains to the upside. Japanese Yen draws support from bets that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey released earlier this Tuesday showed that business confidence at large manufacturers in Japan eased in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. The headline large Manufacturers' Sentiment Index came in at 12.0 in Q1 from the previous reading of 14.0, in line with consensus estimates. Additional details revealed that the large Manufacturing Outlook for the first quarter arrived at 12.0 versus 13.0 prior and the 9.0 expected. Furthermore, Japanese enterprises projected consumer prices to rise 2.5% in one year and 2.4% in three years versus 2.4% and 2.3% increase, respectively, in the prior survey. They also forecast inflation to rise 2.3% in five years compared to a 2.2% increase in the prior survey. This comes on top of Friday's strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo – Japan's capital city – and reaffirms bets that the BoJ might continue raising interest rates in 2025. US President Donald Trump last week unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and will announce reciprocal tariffs later today, at 19:00 GMT. Investors remain worried that the new levies would have a far-reaching impact on Japan's key industries and force the BoJ to keep the policy steady for the time being. Apart from this, a positive tone around the Asian equity markets might hold traders from placing bullish bets around the safe-haven Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, on the other hand, continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid concerns that Trump's trade tariffs would dent economic growth. Furthermore, the global flight to safety and expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve drag the US Treasury bond yields lower. The resultant narrowing of the US-Japan rate differential lends additional support to the lower-yielding JPY during the Asian session on Tuesday. Traders now look forward to this week's important US macro releases, scheduled at the beginning of a new month, starting with the JOLTS openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. This will be followed by the ADP report on Wednesday, the US ISM Services PMI on Thursday, and the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY seems vulnerable; pullback to broken multi-month-old lower ascending channel boundary in play From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown below the lower end of a multi-week-old ascending trend channel was seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bears. However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart and the overnight resilience below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart warrant caution before positioning for further losses. Hence, any subsequent slide could find some support near the 149.00 mark ahead of the overnight swing low, around the 148.70 area. Some follow-through selling will reaffirm the negative bias and make spot prices vulnerable to resuming a well-established downtrend witnessed over the past three months or so. On the flip side, momentum beyond the previous day's peak, around the 150.25 area, could lift the USD/JPY pair beyond the 150.75-150.80 hurdle and allow bulls to reclaim the 151.00 mark. This is followed by the March monthly swing high, around the 151.30 region and a technically significant 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 151.60 zone. A sustained strength beyond the latter might shift the bias in favor of bulls and lift the pair to the 152.00 mark en route to the 152.45-152.50 region and the 100-day SMA, around the 153.00 round figure. Economic Indicator Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Tankan major production growth forecast published by Bank of Japan is the forecast of growth in the Manufacturing sector in the next quarter. It is considered an indicator of future business expectations. A high index is considered positive (or bullish) for JPY, while a low index is seen as negative (or bearish) for JPY. Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 31, 2025 23:50 Frequency: QuarterlyActual: 12Consensus: 9Previous: 13Source: Bank of Japan

04:46 China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI climbs to 51.2 in March vs. 51.1 expected
China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February, according to the latest data released on Tuesday.

04:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.2 above expectations (51.1) in March
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.2 above expectations (51.1) in March

04:26 USD/INR gains traction on global trade concerns, US PMI data in focus
The Indian Rupee (INR) softens on Tuesday, pressured by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand.

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1775 vs. 7.1782 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1775 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1782 and 7.2606 Reuters estimate.

03:33 Australia’s Retail Sales rise 0.2 % MoM in February vs. 0.3% expected
Australia’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.2% MoM in February, compared to a rise of 0.3% in January, the official data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Tuesday.

03:30 South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (March) vs previous 49.9
South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (March) vs previous 49.9

03:30 Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.4, above expectations (48.3) in March
Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.4, above expectations (48.3) in March

03:30 Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February
Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in February

03:02 Iran warns will respond swiftly, decisively, to act of aggression or attack by US, Israel
Iran's U.N. Ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, wrote in a letter that Tehran "strongly warns against any military adventurism and will respond swiftly and decisively to any act of aggression or attack by the United States or its proxy, the Israeli regime, against its sovereignty, territorial integrity, or national interests,” per Reuters.

03:01 Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing fell from previous 51.9 to 51.6 in March
Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing fell from previous 51.9 to 51.6 in March

03:00 South Korea Trade Balance registered at $4.99B, below expectations ($6.1B) in March
South Korea Trade Balance registered at $4.99B, below expectations ($6.1B) in March

03:00 EUR/USD holds steady ahead of this week’s tariff showdown
EUR/USD flubbed a bullish run at the 1.0850 level on Monday, kicking off the new trading week on decidedly tepid footing.

02:55 Japan's Large Manufacturing Index eases to 12.0 in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 – Tankan survey
Business confidence at large manufacturers in Japan eases in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, according to the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey on Tuesday.

02:51 GBP/USD treads water as markets await tariff blowback
GBP/USD churned chart paper in familiar territory on Monday, grinding out a familiar congestion zone as investors brace for the latest iteration of US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

02:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook registered at 28, below expectations (29) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook registered at 28, below expectations (29) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook came in at 12, above expectations (9) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook came in at 12, above expectations (9) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (12) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index meets forecasts (12) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index came in at 35, above forecasts (33) in 1Q
Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index came in at 35, above forecasts (33) in 1Q

02:50 Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell from previous 11.3% to 3.1% in 1Q
Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex fell from previous 11.3% to 3.1% in 1Q

02:30 Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in February
Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.4% below forecasts (2.5%) in February

02:30 Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.24, below expectations (1.26) in February
Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.24, below expectations (1.26) in February

02:20 US President Donald Trump says reciprocal tariffs will start with all countries
US President Donald Trump said late Monday that his reciprocal tariffs plan will target all other countries when they are unveiled Wednesday, adding more uncertainty to the much-anticipated trade policy just days before its implementation.

02:02 United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): -0.4% (March) vs -0.7%
United Kingdom BRC Shop Price Index (YoY): -0.4% (March) vs -0.7%

02:02 USD/CAD strengthens to near 1.4400 amid rising risk aversion
The USD/CAD pair edges higher to near 1.4390 during the late American session on Monday.

01:47 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Stalls below 200-day SMA as bulls struggle for momentum
The GBP/JPY begins Tuesday’s Asian session mostly unchanged, trading at 193.63, below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 193.91, as it consolidates on top and below of the latter.

01:03 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 52.6 to 52.1 in March
Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 52.6 to 52.1 in March

00:45 RBA set to hold interest rate as markets await Bullock’s speech for clues on next policy steps
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is having its monetary policy meeting and will announce its decision early on Tuesday.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold in March.RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s comments could trigger some market reactions.The Australian Dollar is weak ahead of the announcement amid ruling risk aversion.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is having its monetary policy meeting and will announce its decision early on Tuesday. The RBA is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10% following the interest cut delivered in February. Back then, the central bank announced a 25 basis points (bps) trim, the first one since late in 2020. The new decision will be announced at 03:30 GMT, and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference will follow at 04:30 GMT. RBA to hold, eyes on Governor Bullock’s clue on interest rate The RBA had maintained the OCR at multi-year highs for longer than any other central bank, however, tepid economic growth took its toll on policymakers, which finally delivered in February. “The Board’s assessment is that monetary policy has been restrictive and will remain so after this reduction in the cash rate. Some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased and there are signs that disinflation might be occurring a little more quickly than earlier expected. There are nevertheless risks on both sides,” the February statement reads. Even further, policymakers added: “The forecasts published today suggest that, if monetary policy is eased too much too soon, disinflation could stall, and inflation would settle above the midpoint of the target range. In removing a little of the policy restrictiveness in its decision today, the board acknowledges that progress has been made but is cautious about the outlook.” Subtly, officials suggested they would have a cautious approach to interest rate cuts. With that in mind, market players anticipated no movements in March, moreover considering the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will not be released until the end of April. Policymakers will likely wait for the growth update and additional inflation data before deciding on the next movement. It is worth remembering that the Australian economy grew 1.3% in the final quarter of 2024, slightly better than the 1.2% anticipated by market participants. Exports supported broad-based growth, which, anyway, was considered “modest” by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Meanwhile, headline inflation dropped to a three-year low of 2.4% in the three months to December, according to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while underlying inflation shrank to a three-year low of 3.2%. The figures made it easy for the RBA to deliver a rate cut. Still, the next quarterly inflation report will be out in roughly a month, giving RBA policymakers another reason to delay modifying rates until May. With no changes expected in the OCR, the focus will be on Governor Michele Bullock’s words and any hint she may offer about the future of monetary policy. Whereas the Board discussed rate cuts or not would give a picture of how concerned officials are. The more dovish the perspective, the more chances of an interest rate trim in the foreseeable future. How will the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision impact AUD/USD? Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is under strong selling pressure, with the AUD/USD pair approaching the 0.6200 mark and trading at its lowest since March 4. The ongoing slump has little to do with Australia and is purely linked to market panic amid United States (US) tariffs. President Donald Trump is set to launch his “Liberation Day,” that is, massive reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, while threatening to add more levies on US imports. Financial markets fear this will take its toll on global growth. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair is bearish ahead of the announcement, and the odds that the RBA can trigger a recovery seem limited. The anticipated on-hold decision, the most likely outcome, and the fact that the Board will wait for more data, anticipate that the decision could be a non-event. Tariff-related concerns are expected to keep overshadowing macro announcements.” “Indeed, a surprise announcement, such as an unexpected rate cut or hike, could result in crazy volatility around the AUD/USD,” Bednarik adds, although clarifying that both are quite unlikely scenarios. Finally, Bednarik notes: “From a technical point of view, the risk skews to the downside, given that the AUD/USD pair daily chart shows it develops below all its moving averages, while the downward momentum remains strong. Below the 0.6200 mark, the next relevant support is the March monthly low at 0.6186, followed by the 0.6130 price zone. Resistance, on the other hand, comes at around 0.6300, followed by the recent highs in the 0.6330 region.” Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative. Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD. Read more. Next release: Tue Apr 01, 2025 03:30 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 4.1%Previous: 4.1%Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

00:35 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi extends losses toward mid-0.5600s as bearish tone prevails
NZD/USD extended its decline on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, slipping to the mid-0.5600s and pressing into the lower half of the recent range.

NZD/USD trades near the 0.5670 zone ahead of the Asian session, slipping further within Monday's intraday range.The bearish bias strengthens as the pair breaks below key averages while technical indicators remain broadly negative.Support lies below recent lows, while resistance aligns near the 0.5700–0.5710 congestion area.NZD/USD extended its decline on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, slipping to the mid-0.5600s and pressing into the lower half of the recent range. The pair remains under pressure as technical indicators flash bearish cues, with sellers gaining the upper hand after a failed attempt to consolidate around the 0.5730 zone. Daily chart The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a fresh sell bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) prints at 42.7 is gradually moving lower. The Awesome Oscillator echoes a similar neutral tone, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction in the short term. From a trend perspective, selling pressure is confirmed by key moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57347, 100-day SMA at 0.57269, and the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.59120 all slope downward, reinforcing a bearish structure. Additional short-term signals from the 10-day EMA at 0.57267 and 10-day SMA at 0.57449 also support the downside outlook. On the downside, the next line of support may emerge below 0.5670, with previous swing lows and psychological barriers likely to be tested. Resistance remains capped near 0.5700, followed by 0.57050 and 0.57084. A break above these could ease short-term pressure, but the broader structure remains tilted to the downside unless buyers reclaim ground above the 20 and 100-day SMAs.

00:32 Canadian Dollar extends declines as tariff pressures weigh on Loonie markets
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) headed lower on Monday, kicking off the new trading week by shedding half of a percent against the US Dollar (USD) as the Trump administration’s April 2 deadline for sweeping tariffs looms ahead.

00:14 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bearish pressure builds as pair slips below 94.00 zone
The AUD/JPY pair drifted lower on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, trading around the 93.80 zone and extending its decline toward the bottom of its intraday range.

AUD/JPY trades near the 93.80 area ahead of the Asian session, posting losses within the lower end of its daily range.The pair is flashing bearish signals despite a buy reading from the MACD, with momentum indicators and moving averages skewing negative.Support lies near 93.78, while resistance appears around the 94.05–94.27 zone.The AUD/JPY pair drifted lower on Monday’s session ahead of the Asian open, trading around the 93.80 zone and extending its decline toward the bottom of its intraday range. The pair remains under mild pressure as market sentiment turns cautious. Technical indicators and trend signals are increasingly skewed to the downside, even though some momentum readings offer mixed signals. Daily chart Looking at trend indicators, all key moving averages reinforce selling pressure. The 20-day SMA at 94.05, 100-day SMA at 96.76, and 200-day SMA at 98.63 are all tilted downward, with shorter-term averages like the 10-day EMA (94.33) and SMA (94.43) also pointing south. These align with the broader bearish technical tone for the pair. Immediate support can be found at 93.78, with further downside targets near 93.05. On the upside, resistance levels are stacked at 93.92, 94.05, and 94.26. Unless the pair reclaims ground above these zones, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

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Forex News Timeline

23:43 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose from previous -4.6M to 6.037M in March 28 United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock rose from previous -4.6M to 6.037M in March 28

21:33 US Dollar wavers as soft data dims economic outlook The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies, trades near the 104.20 area on Tuesday, showing little directional bias after a series of soft US economic data releases.

21:24 Forex Today: It is all about “Liberation Day” The Greenback treaded water just above the 104.00 mark amid omnipresent trade concerns and investors’ steady caution prior to the dubbed “Liberation Day”.

18:41 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair holds near 1.0800 as mixed technical signals stall further momentum The EUR/USD pair eased slightly on Tuesday’s session after the European close, holding near the 1.0800 area.

17:58 New Zealand GDT Price Index increased to 1.1% from previous 0% New Zealand GDT Price Index increased to 1.1% from previous 0%

17:50 US ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 49 in March vs. 49.5 expected The business activity in the US' manufacturing sector contracted in March, with the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dropping to 49 from 50.3 in February.

17:41 USD/JPY tumbles to near 149.00 as Trump tariff fears improve Yen’s safe-haven appeal The USD/JPY pair falls sharply to near 149.00 during North American trading hours on Tuesday.

17:40 United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below forecasts (50.1) in April: Actual (49.1) United States RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) below forecasts (50.1) in April: Actual (49.1)

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.63M) in February: Actual (7.568M) United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.63M) in February: Actual (7.568M)

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 69.4 above expectations (65) in March United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid registered at 69.4 above expectations (65) in March

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49, below expectations (49.5) in March United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 49, below expectations (49.5) in March

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index fell from previous 47.6 to 44.7 in March United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index fell from previous 47.6 to 44.7 in March

17:00 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index down to 45.2 in March from previous 48.6 United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index down to 45.2 in March from previous 48.6

17:00 United States Construction Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.7%) United States Construction Spending (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

16:46 Copper price is up compared to the beginning of the year – Commerzbank Despite the losses of the last few days, the Copper price on the Comex is up a good 25 percent since the beginning of the year, almost on a par with tin.

16:45 United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.2 above expectations (49.8) in March United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.2 above expectations (49.8) in March

16:40 European gas price with limited downside – Commerzbank The European gas price (TTF) has fallen back to around EUR40 per MWh over the past week, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

16:37 Brent oil price back at $75 – Commerzbank The initial market reaction to Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on Russian oil was muted.

16:31 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD faces pressure around $34, Trump tariffs remain key Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously around $34.00 in Tuesday’s North American session.

16:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI down to 46.3 in March from previous 47.8 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI down to 46.3 in March from previous 47.8

16:27 Stagflation worries push Gold higher – Commerzbank The price of Gold continues to rush from record high to record high.

16:17 GBP/USD: Manufacturing PMI above forecasts but still weak – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering the NA session largely unchanged from Monday’s close, a mid-performer among its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

16:13 EUR slightly softer but maintains range near 1.08 – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is underperforming with a modest 0.2% decline vs.

16:08 USD trades mixed as markets await tariff news – Scotiabank The US Dollar (USD) is trading mixed to slightly weaker against its major currency peers as markets chop around ahead of tomorrow’s tariff announcement from the White House.

16:00 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (March) vs previous 53 Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.8 (March) vs previous 53

15:55 United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 4.8% in March 28 from previous 5.6% United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 4.8% in March 28 from previous 5.6%

15:34 Reuters Poll: 19 of 51 FX strategists concerned about the USD's safe-haven status 19 of 51 FX strategists polled by Reuters noted that they are concerned about the US Dollar's (USD) status as a safe-haven.

15:26 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales up to 49493 in March from previous 47978 South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales up to 49493 in March from previous 47978

14:39 China: Q1 growth likely remained solid at 5.2% y/y – Standard Chartered March PMIs beat market expectations, although Q1 momentum softened from Q4-2024.

14:16 AUD/USD trades flat around 0.6250 after RBA’s monetary policy decision The AUD/USD pair turns sideways around 0.6250 in Tuesday’s European session.

13:46 USD/CNH seems firmer on the day – BBH USD/CNH is firmer on heightened trade-related uncertainties, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:43 USD/CNH: Upward momentum has slowed – UOB Group Brief decline did not lead to a clear increase in downward momentum; USD is likely to trade in a 7.2550/7.2750 range.

13:38 AUD/USD: RBA leaves the cash rate target unchanged – BBH AUD/USD retraced some of yesterday’s sharp losses triggered by the broad sell-off in risk assets, BBH's FX analysts report.

13:27 USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 – UOB Group Instead of continuing to decline, US Dollar (USD) is more likely to trade in a range between 149.00 and 150.50 vs Japanese Yen (JPY).

13:22 USD/JPY is trading close to 150.00 – BBH USD/JPY is consolidating around 150.00, BBH's FX analysts report.

12:53 Oil prices are trading higher – Danske Bank Oil prices have rebounded lately, Danske Bank's FX analyst Stefan Mellin reports.

12:48 NZD/USD: Oversold decline has not stabilised – UOB Group Oversold decline has not stabilised; New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could drop further, but a sustained break below 0.5640 is unlikely.

12:44 AUD/USD risks declining further – Societe Generale AUD/USD downtrend has stalled after reaching 0.6080 in February.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:29 AUD/USD: Chance to retest the 0.6220 level – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6220 level; any further decline is not expected to reach 0.6185.

12:25 USD: Data tests before tariffs – ING The currency market caught up with the tariff threat at the start of this week, with the dollar stronger across the board, the yen supported, and high-beta currencies under pressure.

12:18 ECB’s Rehn: If data verifies baseline, the right reaction should be to cut in April European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on the Bank’s interest rate outlook on Tuesday.

12:15 Gold price hits new all-time high ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher again for a second day this week and for the first day of the second quarter of 2025.

12:07 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session.

12:06 USD/CAD consolidates near multi-week top, below 1.4400 ahead of Trump’s tariffs The USD/CAD pair touches a two-and-half-week top on Tuesday, though it struggles to find acceptance or build on the intraday uptick beyond the 1.4400 mark.

12:02 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

12:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.1%, below expectations (6.2%) in February Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 6.1%, below expectations (6.2%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 1% in March from previous 0.5% Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 1% in March from previous 0.5%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 0.6% in March from previous 0.4% Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) up to 0.6% in March from previous 0.4%

12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 8.6% (February) vs previous 8.7% Greece Unemployment Rate (MoM): 8.6% (February) vs previous 8.7%

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 2.4%, below expectations (2.5%) in March

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in March Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in March

11:57 BoE’s Greene: Rising inflation expectations are a concern Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Tuesday that “rising inflation expectations are a concern.”

11:49 RBA: No change due to caution – Commerzbank The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% this morning.

11:47 Oil: Secondary tariff threat – ING Oil prices rose yesterday amid growing threats to oil supplies, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

11:39 GBP/USD: Any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880 – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is under mild downward pressure vs US Dollar (USD); it is expected to edge lower, but any decline is likely limited to a test of 1.2880.

11:36 Euro bulls must now hope for the ECB – Commerzbank Yesterday brought us three pieces of news that could be relevant for the euro.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered at 44.9 above expectations (44.6) in March United Kingdom S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI registered at 44.9 above expectations (44.6) in March

11:26 EUR/USD: Expected to trade in a sideways range between 1.0780 and 1.0840 – UOB Group Euro (EUR) is expected to trade in a sideways range between 1.0780 and 1.0840 vs US Dollar (USD).

11:22 EUR: CPI can keep markets dovish on ECB – ING EUR/USD traded briefly below 1.080 yesterday before revering later in the session.

11:09 Austria Unemployment fell from previous 347.4K to 316.3K in March Austria Unemployment fell from previous 347.4K to 316.3K in March

11:08 Austria Unemployment Rate down to 7.4% in March from previous 8.1% Austria Unemployment Rate down to 7.4% in March from previous 8.1%

11:01 Italy Unemployment below expectations (6.3%) in February: Actual (5.9%) Italy Unemployment below expectations (6.3%) in February: Actual (5.9%)

11:00 Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52.6 to 55 in March Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52.6 to 55 in March

11:00 Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (48.7) in March Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.6 below forecasts (48.7) in March

11:00 JOLTS job openings expected to dip slightly in February as markets eye March employment data The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

10:55 Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (48.3) in March Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI in line with forecasts (48.3) in March

10:53 Pound Sterling flattens against US Dollar as investors await new suite of Trump’s tariffs The Pound Sterling (GBP) ranges around 1.2900 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session.

10:53 EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates edge higher at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade on the front foot at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

10:50 France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (48.9) in March France HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.5 below forecasts (48.9) in March

10:45 Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations (48) in March Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.6, below expectations (48) in March

10:40 EC President von der Leyen: EU has strong plan to retaliate against US tariffs if necessary European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday, “we do not necessarily want to retaliate. But if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to do so and we will use it.”

10:30 Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (49.8) in March: Actual (48.9) Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index below forecasts (49.8) in March: Actual (48.9)

10:15 Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50) in March: Actual (49.5) Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI below expectations (50) in March: Actual (49.5)

10:05 USD/CHF retreats below 0.8850 as Trump’s tariffs loom The USD/CHF pair softens to near 0.8840 during the early European session on Tuesday.

09:47 Forex Today: Markets remain on edge, await US tariff announcements Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 1:

09:31 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM): 53.6 (March) vs 53.5 Sweden Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM): 53.6 (March) vs 53.5

09:30 Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.5%) in February: Actual (1.6%) Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.5%) in February: Actual (1.6%)

09:08 EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0800, eyes on Eurozone inflation data, ECB’s Lagarde speech The EUR/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.0815 during the early European session on Tuesday.