Forex News Timeline

Friday, June 6, 2025

The International Energy Agency published a report on investments in the energy sector yesterday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

The International Energy Agency published a report on investments in the energy sector yesterday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. US shale Oil production is likely to peak soon"These are expected to reach a record level of $3.3 trillion in the current year and show a clear shift towards investments in ‘green’ energies. Two thirds of investments will be made in low-emission technologies such as renewables, nuclear energy, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency and electrification." "Investments in Oil, gas and coal are expected to account for $1.1 trillion. Investments in the generation, transmission and storage of electricity are expected to exceed investments in fossil fuels by 50%. Upstream Oil investments are expected to fall by 6% year-on-year for the first time since the coronavirus-induced slump in 2020." "The main reason for this is the US shale Oil sector. In recent weeks, some US shale Oil companies have already reported cuts to their investment plans. This reinforces the picture that US shale Oil production is likely to peak soon."

Japanese Yen (JPY) is down 0.4% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of modest USD strength.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is down 0.4% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of modest USD strength. Markets consider reports of a possible recalibration of BoJ policy"The focus remains on fundamentals as market participants consider media reports of a possible recalibration of BoJ policy normalization and a less aggressive slowdown in the pace of bond purchases." "Policymakers will be formulating their longer term bond purchase plans at the next BoJ meeting on June 17. Recent official communication from the BoJ has been decidedly hawkish, with a focus on both rate and balance sheet normalization." "In terms of technicals, USDJPY is quietly consolidating at the lower end of its two year range and its momentum indicators are close to neutral."

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also down 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) with a modest pullback from Thursday’s fresh multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is also down 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) with a modest pullback from Thursday’s fresh multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. BoE/Fed shift is offering fundamental support"As with the ECB (and EUR), the shifting outlook for the BoE is offering support to the pound as market participants reassess their expectations for easing. The BoE is currently priced for no change, and markets are fading their outlook for cuts into year-end – now pricing 41bpts of easing vs. 57bpts in early May." "The near-term domestic release calendar offers some risk as we look to next week’s employment, industrial production, and trade figures." "The trend is bullish and a fresh-multi-year high was reached on Thursday. The RSI’s current reading of 61 leaves ample room for further upside, and the September/April highs around 1.34 are likely to provide meaningful support from here. An extension of gains above 1.36 should find limited resistance ahead of the early 2022 high around 1.3750."

According to a Bloomberg survey, the nine OPEC countries bound by production targets increased Oil production by nearly 200 thousand barrels per day in May, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the nine OPEC countries bound by production targets increased Oil production by nearly 200 thousand barrels per day in May, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. OPEC's May output exceeds target"This means that the increase in production fell slightly short of the agreed level. Nevertheless, the production target was exceeded by almost 350 thousand barrels per day. The deviation is mainly due to the United Arab Emirates and Iraq, although both countries barely increased their production or did not increase it further at all." "Of the three countries not bound by production quotas, Libya increased production to a 13-year high of more than 1.3 million barrels per day. Total OPEC production in May was 27.54 million barrels per day, also 200 thousand barrels per day higher than in the previous month." "In the coming two months, production volumes are likely to rise at a similar rate due to the decision to raise production targets, which should weigh on Oil prices."

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Mario Centeno said on Friday that that the tariffs imposed by the United States will have a deflationary effect in the Eurozone, per Reuters.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Mario Centeno said on Friday that that the tariffs imposed by the United States will have a deflationary effect in the Eurozone, per Reuters.Commenting on the policy outlook, "the rate reduction cycle is likely to continue in 2025, but we do not know at what pace and it will be decided at each meeting," Centeno said and added that the downtrend of inflation could worsen until the beginning of next year, possibly approaching the dangerous level of 1%.Market reactionEUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure on Friday and was last seen losing 0.15% on a daily basis.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed against the generally stronger USD on the session and out-performing its G10 peers as a consequence, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed against the generally stronger USD on the session and out-performing its G10 peers as a consequence, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Carneys talks trade with Trump"Reports yesterday suggested that PM Carney and President Trump are quietly discussing a bilateral trade and security agreement that could be tied up before September. The PM has also been talking trade and other issues with Chinese premier Li. Progress on trade would be a clear positive for CAD sentiment as tariffs continue to squeeze the Canadian economy." "This morning’s labour market report is expected to reflect a drop in employment (Scotia at –25k versus the street’s –10k consensus) and a push higher in unemployment to 7.0% (which would be the highest since late 2021). Soft data may undercut the CAD to some extent and, depending on the USD reaction to NFP, nudge USD/CAD back to the low/mid 1.37s." "Net losses for the USD have steadied in late week price action. The USD’s rebound from its intraday low yesterday suggests some tempering in immediate downside pressure on spot and the potential for a modest USD rebound to develop. But broader trend dynamics are resolutely USD-bearish and scope for USD counter-trend USD gains is limited. USD support is 1.3625/35. Resistance is 1.3745/50."

The USD/JPY pair rises further to near 144.00 during European trading hours on Friday, following the previous day’s recovery move. The pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends recovery ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

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The pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends recovery ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 99.00 after recovering from the six-week low of 98.35 posted the previous day.The US NFP report is expected to show that that the economy added 130K fresh workers, lower than 171K hired in April. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have grown by 0.3% on month, faster than the prior reading of 0.2%. Year-on-year wage growth measure is expected to have risen by 3.7%, slower than 3.8% in April.Financial market participants will pay close attention to the US employment data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.On Thursday, the USD Index bounced back after the post from US President Donald Trump on Truth.Social indicated de-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. “The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Trump wrote.On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board as investors lack clarity on when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again. This week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that interest rate hikes would become appropriate once officials get convinced that the “economy and inflation will re-accelerate after a period of economic sluggishness”.  US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Euro (EUR) is soft, down a marginal 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and trading around levels that had prevailed ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is soft, down a marginal 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and trading around levels that had prevailed ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets are pricing about 30bpts of easing by December"The widely anticipated 25bpt cut was delivered along with muddled guidance, as President Lagarde sought to retain optionality in an environment of elevated, trade-related economic uncertainty. The heavy communication that has since followed has leaned toward further easing while acknowledging the possibility that rates might already be at their terminal level for this cycle." "Rate expectations are fading a portion of Thursday’s push higher but remain off of their recent lows. Markets are currently pricing about 30bpts of easing by December, offering the EUR some possible yield support if policymakers ultimately decide to shift to neutral." "The trend is bullish, with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs. The RSI is confirming and at 57 is well short of the overbought threshold, leaving ample scope for further gains. The 50 day MA (1.1259) is an important medium-term support level. In the near-term, we look to support around 1.1380 and resistance above 1.1480."

India FX Reserves, USD declined to $691.49B in May 26 from previous $692.72B

Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling prices (OSPs) for Oil deliveries to Asia in July only slightly, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Saudi Arabia lowered the official selling prices (OSPs) for Oil deliveries to Asia in July only slightly, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Small price cut is a positive sign for Oil demand"Buyers in Asia have to pay a price premium of $1.2 per barrel for Arab Light compared to the Oman/Dubai benchmark. This is 20 US cents less than in June. Market participants surveyed by Reuters had expected a price reduction twice as large. The small price cut is a positive sign for Oil demand, especially as Saudi Arabia is likely to significantly increase Oil deliveries in July due to the decision to expand Oil production." "For this reason alone, a larger price reduction would not have come as a surprise. The OSPs for customers in the US were increased marginally. A price premium of $3.5 is payable for Arab Light compared to ASCI, a basket of sour Oil types. Remarkably, buyers in Europe will have to pay significantly more for Arab Light in July." "The corresponding OSP over Brent was increased by $1.8 to $3.25 per barrel for north-west Europe and $3.05 for the Mediterranean region. It appears that Saudi Arabia is focussing entirely on defending its market share in Asia, leaving Europe to other suppliers."

The US Dollar (USD) is heading into the end of the week with moderate but broad bid under it.

The US Dollar (USD) is heading into the end of the week with moderate but broad bid under it. Signs of a thaw in US/China relations helped stem pressure on the USD yesterday following the release of higher than expected weekly claims and a sharp drop in US productivity data and the USD has progressed a little more into this morning’s key data reports, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD steadies as signs of US/China trade thaw offset macro worries"The overall downtrend remains intact and the USD has a lot of work to do in order to display any real strength. But the signs of a moderation in overall bearishness are there (via a steady reduction in the premium for dollar puts over calls reflected in risk reversal pricing, for example). It might not last. The NFP report is the key number for markets this morning. The street is looking for a 125k gain in jobs, weaker than April’s 177k rise (Scotia above the market at +180k). Traders are thinking the data will be weaker." "The Bloomberg 'whisper' number has slipped to 110k from around 138k at the start of the week, with the soft ADP number weighing on expectations. A sub-100k outcome will likely renew USD headwinds whereas a print at or near Scotia’s estimate would provide a little—but likely not too much—relief for the USD. With broader market sentiment still quite fragile, a new front of worry has opened up between President Trump and Elon Musk." "Yesterday’s social media fisticuffs are one thing but Musk could muster support against the president’s tax bill, adding to broader market uncertainty while further pressure on TSLA after yesterday’s 14% drop in what is a very expensive (141 P/E) stock may curb tech risk appetite. Short-term price signals indicate better demand emerged around yesterday’s intraday low for the DXY, which may signal a short-term low in place and the risk of a push back towards the 99.50/00 area before renewed selling pressure emerges."

Gold (XAU/USD) is practically flat on Friday, trapped within the last few days' trading range. The broader trend remains positive, but the failure to breach resistance at the $3.400 area this week has shifted the focus towards the $3,440 support area.

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The precious metal is struggling to extend gains on Friday, as the US Dollar pares some losses with investors cautious of betting against the Greenback ahead of the all-important US Non Farm Payrolls report, due later today.

US payrolls are expected to have increased by 130,000 in May, following a 177.000 nincrease in April. Markets, however, are wondering if these numbers are not too optimistic, in light of the grim ADP Employment and PMI figures released earlier this week.XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum is losing steamTechnical indicators show prices moving within an ascending channel but with upside momentum losing steam. A bearish divergence in the 4-Hour chart and a potential Head & Shoulders pattern point to the possibility of a bearish correction.

Price action is now standing at the $3,440 area, which is the neckline off the mentioned H&S figure and the bottom of the ascending channel from mid-May lows..

On the downside, immediate support is at the $3,285 area and $3,345. Below here, the H&S measured target is $3,290. On the upside, a break of the mentioned $3,400 resistance cancels this view and clears the way towards the May 6 high, at $3440.XAU/USD 4-Hour Chart
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1660 and 7.1860. In the longer run, mild downward pressure could lead to USD edging lower; it remains to be seen if it can reach 7.1400, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 7.1660 and 7.1860. In the longer run, mild downward pressure could lead to USD edging lower; it remains to be seen if it can reach 7.1400, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Mild downward pressure could lead to USD edging lower24-HOUR VIEW: "Subsequent to the drop in USD to 7.1701 two days ago, we indicated yesterday that USD 'could continue to weaken, but any further decline is unlikely to break below 7.1600.' We were not wrong, as USD dropped to 7.1645 before rebounding to close largely unchanged at 7.1747 (+0.05%). The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, probably between 7.1660 and 7.1860." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Thursday (29 May, spot at 7.2025), we highlighted that USD 'is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300 for now.' After USD dropped to a low of 7.1701, we revised our view and adopted a slight bearish bias yesterday (05 Jun, spot at 7.1730). We indicated that 'mild downward pressure could lead to USD edging lower, but it remains to be seen if it can reach 7.1400.' We also indicated that 'should USD break above 7.1960, it would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has faded.' Our view remains unchanged."

Gold has been showing strength for some time now: it is currently scratching at the $3,400 per troy ounce mark again, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Gold has been showing strength for some time now: it is currently scratching at the $3,400 per troy ounce mark again, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Gold strengthens amid Ukraine-Russia escalation"Gold recently received a boost from the escalation of the trade conflict after the doubling of US import tariffs on steel and Aluminium came into effect on Wednesday night. In addition, there is a threat of escalation of the war in Ukraine after Ukraine destroyed numerous fighter jets deep inside Russian territory a few days ago and, according to its own statements, attacked and severely damaged the bridge to Crimea, which is important for Russia." "Other price drivers include growing concerns about the sharp rise in US government debt and growing doubts about the status of the US dollar as a safe haven. Today's US labour market data could influence expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, which could also have an impact on the Gold price." "If the data is stronger than expected, the recent rise in expectations of an interest rate cut is likely to subside, which would weigh on the Gold price."

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 142.95/144.40 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, price action suggests that USD is still trading in a range, most likely between 142.10 and 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 142.95/144.40 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, price action suggests that USD is still trading in a range, most likely between 142.10 and 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action suggests that USD is still trading in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "USD fell sharply to 142.58 on Wednesday. Yesterday, Thursday, when it was at 142.75, we indicated that 'there is scope for USD to continue to weaken, even though the major support at 142.10 is unlikely to come under threat (there is another support at 142.35).' Our view was incorrect, as USD fluctuated in a range of 142.52/143.97. Despite the choppy price action, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum. However, instead of a sustained rise, USD is more likely to trade in a higher range of 142.95/144.40." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from two days ago (04 Jun, spot at 143.85), wherein the recent price action 'suggests USD is still trading in a range, most likely between 142.10 and 145.50.' We continue to hold the same view."

As expected, the ECB lowered its interest rates by another 25 basis points to 2.0% yesterday. However, the exchange rate only really started to move during the press conference, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

As expected, the ECB lowered its interest rates by another 25 basis points to 2.0% yesterday. However, the exchange rate only really started to move during the press conference, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Only one further ECB rate cut is expected"Although the ECB significantly lowered its inflation forecasts and now expects a price increase of only 1.6% in the coming year, Christine Lagarde sounded surprisingly hawkish. According to the President of the Central Bank, the ECB is well positioned with its current interest rate to support growth and bring inflation back below the 2% mark. For the moment, this does not sound as if further interest rate cuts are planned.""Lagarde also had to admit that not all council members had voted in favor of another cut in the key interest rate, even though the move was based on a broad consensus. It could therefore be that the statements were also intended to appease the minority who were probably against a move, or at least expressed reservations.""Before the ECB meeting, the market was speculating about two further interest rate cuts this year, but after the meeting, only one further cut is now expected. As a result, the EUR/USD gained ground yesterday and almost reached 1.15. It is unlikely to break this mark today unless the US labor market report is very weak, which would weigh on the USD."

Today is that time again – Payroll Friday. The first Friday of the month when, as is traditional, the US labor market report is published. According to Bloomberg, the consensus expectation is that the US economy created 126,000 new jobs in May.

Today is that time again – Payroll Friday. The first Friday of the month when, as is traditional, the US labor market report is published. According to Bloomberg, the consensus expectation is that the US economy created 126,000 new jobs in May. This would be significantly less than in the last two months, but would be roughly in line with the average for the last 12 months, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. Focus is on the unemployment rate and average hourly wages"The JOLT survey published on Tuesday showed a surprising increase in job vacancies in April. And since this figure is always determined on the last working day of the month, this would certainly be a good sign for new jobs in May. The hiring rate also rose again in April to 3.5%, the best figure since last September. However, compared to the low unemployment rate, this figure is still quite low, indicating that the labor market remains sluggish.""Yesterday, initial claims for the week ending May 31 rose to 247,000, the highest level since last October. The four-week average also rose, reaching 235,000, the highest level since last October. This means that initial claims were around 8% higher than in the same week last year. The year-on-year increase has thus accelerated significantly in the last two weeks, after averaging around 4.5% since the beginning of the year. The Conference Board's consumer survey also recently revealed that people feel that jobs are no longer as easy to find and that job vacancies have declined.""All in all, a figure around or slightly below the consensus is unlikely to have a particularly strong impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate. An upward surprise, on the other hand, would certainly give the dollar a temporary boost. However, to put pressure on the greenback, the labor market would probably have to be significantly worse than expected. As always, the focus will be on the unemployment rate and average hourly wages, in addition to the number of new jobs created. However, if these figures are reported as expected, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% and hourly wages slightly lower, it will ultimately be the number of new jobs created that makes the difference."

Risk remains on the upside, but with no clear increase in momentum, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may not be able to break above 0.6080 against US Dollar (USD).

Risk remains on the upside, but with no clear increase in momentum, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) may not be able to break above 0.6080 against US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Upward momentum remains largely unchanged24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: 'NZD could edge higher, but barring a sudden surge in momentum, any advance is unlikely to threaten this week’s high, near 0.6055.' The advance exceeded our expectations, as instead of edging higher, NZD jumped to a high of 0.6080. It pulled back from the high to close at 0.6038 (+0.17%). The risk remains on the upside today, but with no clear increase in upward momentum, NZD may not be able to break above 0.6080. The significant resistance at 0.6095 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 0.6025, followed by 0.6005." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Three days ago (03 Jun, spot at 0.6040), we indicated that 'rapid buildup in upward momentum indicates further NZD strength, and the level to monitor is 0.6095.' Yesterday, NZD rose to 0.6080. Upward momentum remains largely unchanged, but as long as 0.5985 (‘strong support’ level previously at 0.5970) is not breached, there is a chance for NZD to test 0.6095."

The Australian Dollar extends losses below 0.6500 on Friday as traders trim their US Dollar short positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

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The Australian Dollar extends losses below 0.6500 on Friday as traders trim their US Dollar short positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The pair’s broader trend remains positive, but the double top at 0.6530 hints at a strong resistance area.

All eyes today are on the US Nonfarm payrolls report, which will be observed with particular interest, after a string of negative US releases earlier this week revived fears of a recession.

Market forecasts anticipate a 130,000 increment on private employment in May, following a 177,000 rise in April, with the Unemployment Rate steady at the previous 4.2% level.Downbeat NFP figures might boost hopes of Fed easingEarlier this week, ADP Employment figures showed a much lower than expected reading, 37k against the 115K expected. Beyond that, Manufacturing activity contracted beyond forecasts and, unexpectedly, the Services sector showed a similar picture. After these figures, markets are wondering whether a 130K increase in Payrolls is not too optimistic a view.

Another weak release today will increase concerns about the US economic momentum and might convince the Fed to abandon its neutral stance and lower interest rates further to avoid a deeper economic slowdown. This might add pressure on the USD.

The Australian calendar has been light today, although the impact of a softer-than-expected Australian GDP and the RBA’s dovish minutes has been minimal, with US economic data and Trump’s ongoing tariff saga as the main market movers this week. Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

Russia Interest Rate Decision registered at 20%, below expectations (21%)

Switzerland and Ireland were added to the US Treasury's monitoring list when it comes to FX practices, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Switzerland and Ireland were added to the US Treasury's monitoring list when it comes to FX practices, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Substantial break over 0.94 requires a large SNB rate cut"This is unwelcome attention for the Swiss National Bank which faces inflation near zero, a very strong Swiss franc and heavily uses FX intervention as part of its monetary policy." "While the SNB will publicly say that this new US Treasury designation changes nothing when it comes to FX intervention, it will certainly make life more difficult. And with FX intervention potentially constrained, at the margin it could favour a 50bp rate cut from the SNB on 19 June. For reference, the OIS market currently prices a 30bp rate cut.""EUR/CHF has been enjoying a little support from the ECB's end-of-cycle rhetoric yesterday. But a substantial break over 0.94 will likely require that large SNB rate cut later this month."

AUD/USD is showing signs of potential upside as it consolidates above key technical levels, with bullish momentum building if support at 0.6400 holds, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

AUD/USD is showing signs of potential upside as it consolidates above key technical levels, with bullish momentum building if support at 0.6400 holds, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Key support at 0.6400 in focus"AUD/USD has evolved within a tight range since last month. A clear direction has been lacking however signals of a deeper pullback are not yet visible. The pair has established itself above the 50-DMA and is now challenging the upper limit of recent consolidation." "Defence of recent pivot low at 0.6400 can lead to a larger up move. Next objectives could be located at projections of 0.6630/0.6650 and 0.6720."

Silver price (XAG/USD) refreshes over a decade high to near $36.20 on Friday. The white metal performs strongly as market experts quoted it a value buy, citing its secular underperformance in comparison with Gold.

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The white metal performs strongly as market experts quoted it a value buy, citing its secular underperformance in comparison with Gold.Silver has underperformed gold over a long period of time and looks significantly undervalued. This appears to be attracting investors, analysts at Commerzbank said. They added that the silver market is expected to be in a “supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year”. However, the deficit is expected to be “significantly smaller” as “demand will likely decline and supply to increase”,On the global economic front, trade worries between the United States (US) and China have eased after a post from President Donald Trump on Truth.Social signaled that he had a direct conversation with Chinese leader XI Jinping and trade talks between the two will be smooth in the future.“The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Trump wrote.Theoretically, resolving global economic tensions diminish demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver. However, the demand for Silver as an industrial input will increase, given its application in various sectors, such as mining, Electric Vehicles, and semiconductors, etc.In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The labor market data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.Higher interest rates by the Fed for a longer period bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Ahead of the US NFP data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gains ground and rises to near 99.00.Silver technical analysisSilver price advances to near $36.20 after breaking above the key resistance plotted from the October 22 high of $34.87, which will act as a key support now. Advancing 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $33.85 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps above 70.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum.Looking up, psychological level of $40.00 will be the major resistance for the Silver price. On the downside, the October 22 high of $34.87 will act as key support for the asset.Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) had been expected to hold its key rate steady at today’s meeting. This had been a majority view among analysts, including ourselves, until recently, but as of late, the consensus majority has shifted in favour of a 100bp rate cut today.

The Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) had been expected to hold its key rate steady at today’s meeting. This had been a majority view among analysts, including ourselves, until recently, but as of late, the consensus majority has shifted in favour of a 100bp rate cut today. This shift could be driven by a combination of weaker economic news-flow, flattening inflation path – annualised inflation is finally showing better dynamics, decelerating to 9.78%y/y as of 26 May – and possibly, a gradual pricing-out of favourable scenarios relating to a peace-treaty, or removal of sanctions, which would have provided automatic growth support, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. USD/RUB and EUR/RUB to drift upward over the coming year"Even as favourable scenarios are being priced-out however, the USD/RUB and EUR/RUB exchange rates stay fixed at low levels which they reached over the past quarter – this lack of any reaction probably reflects the ‘artificial’ nature of Russia’s exchange rates. Fundamentally speaking, there is not much justification for exchange rate strength right now: the oil price has settled a good $10/bbl lower than its erstwhile $70-75/bbl range and this has already impacted Russia’s oil and gas revenues (which fell by 35.4%y/y in May). Bank lending continued to slow down in April both for household and corporate loans – this is now a major driver of cooling demand.""Of course, there are always some bullish counter-signals: the services PMI picked up in its last reading and retail sales and industrial output accelerated slightly, the latter because of defence spending. But on balance, the signs of economic slowdown are much more prominent. CBR itself has been acknowledging that this time the board might consider a wider range of options, leading some to predict even a 200bp rate cut. All this makes a rate cut the consensus favourite outcome now, even if not quite a done deal. If CBR does cut the rate, it will signal that the central bank realises that there is no further point in waiting for an external impetus from peace discussions or the like." "In the US Senate and in the EU, further sanctions on Russia are being lined up, not the contrary – the EU is preparing its 18th sanctions package, which will target Russian energy and remaining sources of finance. We anticipate that a rate cut today will not impact the USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates, which are ‘technical fixes’ and recently have not moved even in response to significant geo-political developments. In the longer-term, we forecast USD/RUB and EUR/RUB to drift upward over the coming year."

Australian Dollar (AUD) could first test 0.6540 against US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) could first test 0.6540 against US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Bias remains on the upside24-HOUR VIEW: "When AUD was at 0.6490 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that 'although there has been no marked increase in upward momentum, AUD could first test 0.6515 before the risk of a pullback increases.' We added, 'the major resistance at 0.6540 is probably out of reach.' The advance exceeded our expectations, as AUD rose to within two pips of 0.6540 with a high of 0.6538. AUD pulled back from the high to close 0.23% higher at 0.6508. Although there is still no significant increase in upward momentum, AUD could, this time, first test 0.6540 before the risk of a more sizeable pullback increases. A sustained break above this level seems unlikely. Note that above 0.6540, there is a nearby resistance at 0.6555. On the downside, if USD breaks below 0.6480 (minor support is at 0.6495), it would mean that the current upward pressure has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 0.6490), we highlighted that the recent 'price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540.' Yesterday, Thursday, AUD rose to a high of 0.6538. Despite the advance, there is no significant increase in upward momentum. That said, the bias remains on the upside, but it remains to be seen if AUD can break clearly above 0.6555. The upside bias will remain intact, provided the ‘strong support’ at 0.6455 (level previously at 0.6430) holds."

Citing people with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) thinking, Bloomberg reported on Friday that the central bank is “said to consider smaller reductions to its bond buying.”

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BoJ's new bond-buying plan would last to March 2027.Market reactionUSD/JPY is holding higher ground near 144.15 following these headlines, adding 0.50% on a daily basis. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Fortunately, the very public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk has not had broader market implications. Despite the travails for Tesla, the broader S&P 500 was only off 0.5% yesterday and futures now call the S&P modestly higher today.

Fortunately, the very public fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk has not had broader market implications. Despite the travails for Tesla, the broader S&P 500 was only off 0.5% yesterday and futures now call the S&P modestly higher today. Notably, it's been a quiet week for the US Treasury market, where yields are broadly unchanged. The topic of how the US funds its growing fiscal deficit may be back next week, however, when we see three and 10-year auctions, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Soft jobs number can push DXY through 98.00"The main event today is the 1430CET release of the May NFP jobs report. Jobs growth has been holding up reasonably well so far this year, but investors are on alert for any signs that April tariff uncertainty is prompting layoffs. And the Fed has said it stands ready to act should the jobs market deteriorate. On the back of soft ISM business surveys this week, the 'whisper' number for today's jobs number has fallen from +140k to +110k. Official consensus seems somewhere near +125k.""For reference, the market prices 50bp of Fed cuts this year, starting in September. Any soft figure will no doubt bring broader calls from politicians for an immediate cut and get the market thinking about a move from the Fed at the 30 July meeting – when we'll know whether 'Liberation Day' tariffs have been reimposed.""DXY requires quite a soft jobs number to break 98.00, with backup support around 97.20. We suspect any DXY spike on a better number exhausts in the 99.30/50 area as the bearish conviction on the dollar holds sway."

Firmer underlying tone suggests Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3615 level against US Dollar (USD); the next resistance at 1.3655 is unlikely to come under threat.

Firmer underlying tone suggests Pound Sterling (GBP) could retest the 1.3615 level against US Dollar (USD); the next resistance at 1.3655 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, GBP could edge higher; given the current momentum, any advance may not be able to break clearly above 1.3655, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP has a chance to edge higher24-HOUR VIEW: "We stated yesterday that 'a slight increase in momentum suggests an upside bias, but GBP is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3600.' However, the price movements did not quite turn out as we expected. GBP edged higher until the early NY session, when it popped above 1.3600, reaching 1.3616 before retreating quickly and closed slightly higher by 0.11% at 1.3571. The brief rise above 1.3600 did not result in any increase in upward momentum. However, the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP could retest the 1.3615 level before a pullback is likely. The next resistance at 1.3655 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 1.3555; a breach of 1.3530 would indicate that GBP has entered a range-trading phase." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held the same view since Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 1.3555), wherein 'there has been an increase in short-term upward momentum, but for a sustained advance, GBP must first close above 1.3600.' Yesterday, GBP broke above 1.3600 and then pulled back to close at 1.3571. While the slight increase in upward momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained advance just yet, as long as the ‘strong support’ at 1.3500 (level previously at 1.3470) is not breached, GBP could edge higher. That said, given the current momentum, any advance may not be able to break clearly above 1.3655."

We were caught off guard by the main message from ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday that the easing cycle was nearing its conclusion, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

We were caught off guard by the main message from ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday that the easing cycle was nearing its conclusion, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.1.1330/1350 may be the limit of the EUR/USD sell-off"The terminal rate for the ECB easing cycle was subsequently priced 11bp higher, with 1m EUR ESTR priced one year forward now at 1.71%. This compares to the extreme of 1.40% in mid-April. The market still prices a further 25bp ECB cut later this year, but this has now been pushed back to October from September. ECB confidence in the modest growth cycle into 2026 and 2027 is a modest euro-positive."EUR/USD came close to 1.1500 on those Lagarde remarks yesterday. As above, we're going to need quite a soft set of US data today to break that 1.1500 barrier above which the April 1.1575 high comes into play. We suspect 1.1330/1350 may be the limit of the EUR/USD sell-off should US data not be as weak as the market is positioned for.

New Zealand Dollar’s upside attempts were capped at 0.6180 on Thursday, and the pair is extending the reversal on Friday, against a somewhat firmer US Dollar, which brings the 0.6000 support area back into focus.The Greenback is trimming some losses with investors unwinding their USD shorts, after a

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The Greenback is trimming some losses with investors unwinding their USD shorts, after a series of downbeat US releases, awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls Report, due later today. The market consensus anticipates a 130,000 net gain in employment in May, with the jobless rate steady at 4.2%.Technical Analysis: A move below 0.6000 might anticipate a bearish correctionFrom a technical standpoint, the pair maintains the upside bias observed in the last six weeks intact, but the rejection at 0.6080 suggests that there is important resistance above 0.6050.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish divergence on RSI studies, which suggests that the upside move is losing strength, and further downside trading below the 0.6000-0.5990 area (trendline support and June 3 lows) today would form an “Evening Star” candle pattern, a negative signal.

The next support levels below here are 0.5925 and 0.5890. On the upside, resistances are at 0.6080 and 0.6145.NZD/USD 4-Hour Chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Euro (EUR) could potentially retest 1.1495 against US Dollar (USD) or even break above this level; slowing momentum suggests 1.1530 is likely out of reach.

Euro (EUR) could potentially retest 1.1495 against US Dollar (USD) or even break above this level; slowing momentum suggests 1.1530 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, outlook remains positive, but it remains to be seen if EUR can break clearly above 1.1530, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Outlook for EUR remains positive24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR dipped to 1.1356 two days ago before recovering. Yesterday, when it was at 1.1425, we indicated the following: 'The recovery has gained some momentum, and EUR could test this week’s high, near 1.1455. A breach of this level is not ruled out, but the current momentum suggests a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. Any further advance is also unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1495.' Our directional call was correct, but EUR rose more than expected, almost reaching 1.1495 (high of 1.1494). It then pulled back from the high to close at 1.1444 (+0.24%). While upward momentum is slowing, EUR could potentially retest 1.1495 or even break above this level. That said, given the lack of strong momentum, any advance above 1.1495 is unlikely to reach the next major resistance at 1.1530. Support levels are at 1.1425 and 1.1395." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 1.1445). In that update, we revised our EUR outlook to positive, and we indicated that “the immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530.” Yesterday, Thursday, EUR popped to within one pip of 1.1495, pulling back quickly from 1.1494. Although upward momentum has not increased much further, the outlook for EUR remains positive. All in all, as long as the ‘strong support’ at 1.1365 (level previously at 1.1345) is not breached, EUR could rise further. However, it remains to be seen if it can break clearly above 1.1530."

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 93.08 on Friday, down from 94.02 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on the monetary policy outlook during his speech on Friday.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn commented on the monetary policy outlook during his speech on Friday.Key quotesDecision-making at each meeting remains key.

Not committing to any rate path.

ECB keeps full freedom of movement at all coming meetings.Market reactionAt the time of writing, EUR/USD is closing in on 1.1400, down 0.28% so far.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said on Friday,  “I dissented in this week's rate decision.”

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I didn't affect the outcome of the Governing Council meeting with my lone vote.

We are currently expansive in our monetary policy.

Lagarde said we are at the end of the cycle, I wanted to discuss whether that is the case.

Current nominal neutral rate is around 3%.Market reactionThese comments fail to inspire the Euro (EUR), keeping EUR/USD 0.28% lower on the day at 1.1411 as of writing. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a moderately positive tone on Friday, with investors trimming US Dollar lows ahead of May’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Dollar trims previous losses ahead of the NFP reading.Investors are paring USD shorts after a string of negative US releases.A downbeat employment report would boost hopes of Fed easing.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a moderately positive tone on Friday, with investors trimming US Dollar lows ahead of May’s US Nonfarm Payrolls release. The DXY is nearing the 99.00 level, after hitting six-week lows, at 98.35 on Thursday, on track for a flat weekly performance.

Market forecasts anticipate a 130,000 increment on private payrolls in May, following a 177,000 rise in April, but the weak macroeconomic data seen earlier this week casts doubts about these figures.

The unemployment rate is expected to have remained steady at a 4.2% rate, but, according to some market sources, there is a chance of an increase to 4.3%, which would put additional pressure on the US Dollar.Weak US Data has weighed on the USDThe USDollar suffered this week on the back of a string of downbeat economic releases, ISM PMI readings revealed contractions in both manufacturing and services sectors, suggesting a poor contribution to the Q2 GDP.Beyond that, ADP figures revealed a much lower-than-expected increase in employment in May, which raised speculation that a 130K NFP forecast might be too optimistic.

Against this background, a weak employment report today might urge the Fed to end its wait-and-see stance and lower interest rates in the coming months. Such a scenario would push the Dollar lower against its main peers. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.29% 0.28% 0.45% 0.07% 0.34% 0.19% 0.28% EUR -0.29% -0.00% 0.13% -0.22% -0.01% -0.09% -0.01% GBP -0.28% 0.00% 0.12% -0.21% 0.00% -0.09% -0.01% JPY -0.45% -0.13% -0.12% -0.33% 0.01% -0.14% -0.23% CAD -0.07% 0.22% 0.21% 0.33% 0.27% 0.13% 0.21% AUD -0.34% 0.00% -0.00% -0.01% -0.27% -0.08% 0.00% NZD -0.19% 0.09% 0.09% 0.14% -0.13% 0.08% 0.08% CHF -0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% -0.21% -0.01% -0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
 

Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY) down to 2.2% in 1Q from previous 2.6%

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in April

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) above expectations (1.2%) in 1Q: Actual (1.5%)

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (1.4%) in April: Actual (2.3%)

Eurozone Employment Change (YoY) below forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q: Actual (0.7%)

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 0.6%, above forecasts (0.4%) in 1Q

Eurozone Employment Change (QoQ) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in 1Q

The Pound Sterling (GBP) corrects slightly to near 1.3550 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Friday, falling from a fresh three-year high of 1.3620 posted the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling corrects to near 1.3550 against the US Dollar as the Greenback gains ground ahead of the US NFP data release for May.The US Dollar attracted bids after US President Trump expressed confidence over the Sino-US trade talks.Data from a survey shows that the number of UK firms worried about US tariffs declined sharply following the UK-US trade agreement.The Pound Sterling (GBP) corrects slightly to near 1.3550 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Friday, falling from a fresh three-year high of 1.3620 posted the previous day. The GBP/USD pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks up to near 98.85.The US official employment data is expected to influence the next move in the US Dollar as it will likely impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the estimates, US employers are expected to have hired 130K fresh workers, lower than the 171K added in April. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%.Average Hourly Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have risen 3.7% on year, slower than 3.8% increase in April. Month-on-month, wage growth is expected to come in at 0.3%, faster than the prior reading of 0.2%.This week, traders raised bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in July after the ADP Employment Change and ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for May exhibited poor labor demand and a decline in economic activity. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in the July meeting has increased to 32.8% from 22.5% a week ago.However, in their public speeches, Fed officials are still endorsing a wait-and-see approach on interest rates, citing upside risks to inflation due to the US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and the apparent resilience in labor demand.“I see greater upside risks to inflation and potential downside risks to employment and output growth,” Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler said at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday. She added that the labor market appears “resilient and stable”, and the economic activity continues to grow but at a “more moderate pace than the second half of 2024”.FXStreet’s speech tracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Kugler’s words as hawkish with a score of 6.4.”Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades lower against its major peersThe Pound Sterling underperforms its major peers, except against the Japanese Yen (JPY), on Friday. The Bank of England’s (BoE) latest Decision Maker Panel survey shows that the number of firms citing US trade policy as a major concern has decreased. According to the survey, the percentage of firms citing international risk as one of the top three concerns has been reduced to 12% from 22% seen last month following the trade agreement between the UK and the US.Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have also eased somewhat after a post from US President Donald Trump on Truth.Social confirmed a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping and suggested that trade negotiations between the two nations would proceed smoothly. “The call lasted approximately one and a half hours and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries,” Trump wrote.On the monetary policy front, traders have pared bets supporting another BoE interest-rate cut this month due to accelerating inflationary pressures. During the last meeting, when the UK central bank cut rates by 25bps to 4.25%, the BoE guided a “gradual and careful” monetary expansion approach.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above key 20-day EMAThe Pound Sterling retraces to near 1.3550 against the US Dollar on Friday, holding above the key horizontal support plotted from the September 26 high of 1.3434. The outlook for the pair remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3443.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60.00, suggesting that a bullish momentum is intact.On the upside, the January 13, 2022, high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as a major support area.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades sideways around $62.20 during European trading hours on Friday. The Oil price consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

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The Oil price consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data as it will influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Signs of cooling labor demand would force traders to raise Fed dovish bets, a scenario that will be favorable for the Oil price.The black gold remains well-supported as the comments from US President Donald Trump in a post on Truth.Social have indicated that trade negotiations with China will be smooth in the future. “The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Trump wrote.Meanwhile, Beijing has also confirmed that US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call on Trump's request to engage in discussions and reflect ongoing diplomatic communication amidst tensions, Xinhua news agency reported.De-escalating trade tensions between China and the US is favorable for the Oil price, given that China is the largest importer of Oil in the world.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

EUR/USD is trading moderately lower on Friday, moving near the 1.1430 level at the time of writing, after having reached levels near 1.1500 the previous day.

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EUR/USD is trading moderately lower on Friday, moving near the 1.1430 level at the time of writing, after having reached levels near 1.1500 the previous day. A hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) statement boosted the common currency on Thursday, but the market is turning more cautious while awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due later.

The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the key Rate On Deposit Facility to 2.0% as widely expected after Thursday’s monetary policy meeting. Still, President Christine Lagarde struck an exceptionally hawkish tone, suggesting that the easing cycle might be nearly over.

Investors pared back hopes of further ECB monetary easing for the coming months, and the Euro (EUR) rallied alongside the German Treasury bond’s appreciation.

The US Dollar (USD), on the contrary, remained on its back foot, weighed by a string of downbeat macroeconomic releases this week and the lack of progress in US President Donald Trump’s negotiations with trading partners.

The long-awaited phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has failed to bring any advance on the uncertain trade relationship between the world’s two major economies, but the positive comments from the republican have contributed to soothing investors. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.16% 0.16% 0.26% -0.08% 0.12% -0.12% 0.12% EUR -0.16% 0.01% 0.07% -0.23% -0.09% -0.26% -0.04% GBP -0.16% -0.01% 0.04% -0.23% -0.09% -0.26% -0.05% JPY -0.26% -0.07% -0.04% -0.30% -0.03% -0.27% -0.22% CAD 0.08% 0.23% 0.23% 0.30% 0.20% -0.03% 0.19% AUD -0.12% 0.09% 0.09% 0.03% -0.20% -0.17% 0.06% NZD 0.12% 0.26% 0.26% 0.27% 0.03% 0.17% 0.22% CHF -0.12% 0.04% 0.05% 0.22% -0.19% -0.06% -0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: The ECB signals the end of the cycleThe ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the central bank is “in a good place to navigate uncertainties,” and suggested that it is nearing the end of the monetary easing cycle.
Regarding the economic outlook, Lagarde warned about downside risks to the economy and observed the highly uncertain inflation outlook. Her tone, however, was more optimistic than in previous meetings, which prompted investors to dial down hopes for further easing in the coming months.
Futures markets are now pricing only a 20% chance of another rate cut in July, from about 30% before the meeting, according to data by Reuters. The market is now betting on the possibility of just one more rate cut, which will probably take place in December.
In the Eurozone economic calendar, April’s retail sales will be the main attraction on Friday. Consumption year-over-year (YoY) is expected to remain growing at a steady pace in April, 1.4%, following a 1.5% growth in March.
Apart from that, ECB’s Lagarde will speak again, although she is unlikely to say anything new, before the release of the Eurozone’s final Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is expected to be revised to a 0.4% quarterly growth from the previous 0.3% estimation. The yearly rate will probably be confirmed at 1.2%.
The highlight of the day, however, will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be closely watched after a string of weak US releases this week. Private payrolls are expected to have grown by 130,000 in May from the previous 177,000, but the unemployment rate might have increased to 4.3% from the previous 4.2%. The US Dollar is likely to be more vulnerable to a negative surprise today.Technical analysis: EUR/USD needs to stay above 1.1400 to confirm the bullish biasEUR/USD is trading on a positive trend, printing higher highs and higher lows since mid-May as seen in the 4-hour chart below. The pair found sellers at the psychological 1.1500 level on Thursday, but the overall trend remains positive despite the weaker bullish momentum.

The pair is pulling back on Friday, with investors cautious ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, as prices approach a key support area at 1.1400 (round number, upward-sloping trendline). Below there, the bullish trend would be challenged, with bears focusing on 1.1360 and 1.1315, which have been acting as support and resistance since mid-April.

On the upside, resistances are at 1.1495, which limited the recovery on Thursday, and the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.1585. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Friday, “the rate cutting is nearly done.”

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The best thing for the ECB is to wait and see.

Given uncertainty, you can never say it is done.

ECB may cut if the economy weakens and inflation falls.

There are downside risks to growth.

The ECB is quite confident on forecasts.Market reactionAt the press time, EUR/USD is down 0.15% on the day to 1.1425. Euro PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.69% -0.61% 0.00% -0.55% -1.02% -1.29% -0.32% EUR 0.69% 0.06% 0.71% 0.13% -0.33% -0.64% 0.36% GBP 0.61% -0.06% 0.66% 0.07% -0.39% -0.70% 0.29% JPY 0.00% -0.71% -0.66% -0.55% -1.02% -1.31% -0.41% CAD 0.55% -0.13% -0.07% 0.55% -0.47% -0.77% 0.23% AUD 1.02% 0.33% 0.39% 1.02% 0.47% -0.25% 0.77% NZD 1.29% 0.64% 0.70% 1.31% 0.77% 0.25% 1.00% CHF 0.32% -0.36% -0.29% 0.41% -0.23% -0.77% -1.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 93.60 during early European hours on Friday. A technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross remains within an ascending channel pattern, confirming a sustained bullish bias.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/JPY may target the initial resistance at its three-month high of 95.65.Bullish bias prevails as the 14-day RSI is positioned above the 50 mark.The immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of 93.06 near the ascending channel’s lower boundary.AUD/JPY extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 93.60 during early European hours on Friday. A technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross remains within an ascending channel pattern, confirming a sustained bullish bias.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves above the 50 level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Additionally, the AUD/JPY cross continues to trade above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating strong short-term price momentum.On the upside, the AUD/JPY cross could approach the three-month high at 95.65, which was marked on May 13. A break above this level could reinforce the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 99.40.The AUD/JPY cross is testing the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 93.05, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary. A break below the channel could cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to test the six-week low at 91.65, recorded on May 23.AUD/JPY: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.19% 0.20% 0.33% -0.04% 0.20% -0.07% 0.17% EUR -0.19% 0.02% 0.10% -0.23% -0.04% -0.24% -0.02% GBP -0.20% -0.02% 0.08% -0.23% -0.05% -0.25% -0.03% JPY -0.33% -0.10% -0.08% -0.31% 0.00% -0.26% -0.21% CAD 0.04% 0.23% 0.23% 0.31% 0.24% -0.02% 0.19% AUD -0.20% 0.04% 0.05% -0.00% -0.24% -0.20% 0.04% NZD 0.07% 0.24% 0.25% 0.26% 0.02% 0.20% 0.22% CHF -0.17% 0.02% 0.03% 0.21% -0.19% -0.04% -0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The USD/CAD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day on Friday and trades around the 1.3665 region during the early European session. Spot prices remain close to the year-to-date low touched on Thursday and seem vulnerable to sliding further.

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Spot prices remain close to the year-to-date low touched on Thursday and seem vulnerable to sliding further.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to draw support from reports that a trade deal between the US and Canada could happen before the G7 Summit on June 15, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. However, a goodish pickup in the US Dollar (USD) demand helps limit the downside ahead of the crucial monthly employment details from the US and Canada, due later today. From a technical perspective, the overnight close below the 1.3700 mark for the second straight day and negative oscillators on the daily chart validate a bearish breakdown. Hence, some follow-through weakness below the 1.3635 region, the YTD low, en route to the 1.3600 round figure, looks like a distinct possibility before the USD/CAD pair eventually drops to the 1.3545 region and the 1.3500 psychological mark.On the flip side, any attempted recovery might now confront an immediate strong barrier near the 1.3700-1.3710 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 1.3735-1.3740 area, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/CAD pair towards the 1.3775 intermediate hurdle. The momentum could extend further beyond the 1.3800 mark, towards the 1.3850-1.3860 heavy supply zone.USD/CAD daily chart Economic Indicator Net Change in Employment The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Fri Jun 06, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: -15K Previous: 7.4K Source: Statistics Canada Why it matters to traders? Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.

Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) declined to 0.1% in 1Q from previous 0.2%

Austria Trade Balance down to €-888.1M in March from previous €44.9M

Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves: 704B (May) vs 703B

Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 6:

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Earlier in the day, the European economic calendar will offer revisions to first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Employment Change data, alongside Retail Sales figures for April. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.79% -0.64% 0.12% -0.53% -0.95% -1.23% -0.23% EUR 0.79% 0.14% 0.92% 0.25% -0.15% -0.48% 0.56% GBP 0.64% -0.14% 0.80% 0.11% -0.29% -0.61% 0.41% JPY -0.12% -0.92% -0.80% -0.66% -1.06% -1.37% -0.44% CAD 0.53% -0.25% -0.11% 0.66% -0.41% -0.73% 0.30% AUD 0.95% 0.15% 0.29% 1.06% 0.41% -0.26% 0.79% NZD 1.23% 0.48% 0.61% 1.37% 0.73% 0.26% 1.03% CHF 0.23% -0.56% -0.41% 0.44% -0.30% -0.79% -1.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it cut key rates by 25 basis points after the June policy meeting, as expected. In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that they are confident that inflation will stabilize at their target level noted that they were getting to the end of the current monetary policy cycle. EUR/USD gained traction with the immediate reaction to Lagarde's comments and reached its highest level since late April near 1.1500. Although the pair corrected lower later in the American session, it ended the second consecutive day in positive territory. Early Friday, EUR/USD trades in a narrow channel below 1.1450.The US Dollar (USD) came under renewed selling pressure following the disappointing Jobless Claims data on Thursday, which showed that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000 from 239,000. Meanwhile, news of United States (US) President Donald Trump holding a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade helped the risk mood improve and limited the USD's losses.Later in the American session, markets turned risk-averse as President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk got into a heated argument. Trump said that the easiest way to save money in the budget would be to terminate Musk's governmental subsidies and contracts. In response, Musk said that SpaceX will decommission its Dragon spacecraft, which is used to transport crews to and from the space station, immediately. When asked by a user whether he thinks that Trump should be impeached, Musk replied, "Yes." Tesla Inc stocks fell nearly 15% following this development and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended the day with a 0.8% loss. Early Friday, US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day and the USD Index holds steady slightly below 99.00. Nonfarm Payrolls in the US are expected to rise by 130,000. Related news Buckle up for NFPs US May Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing Gold price reaction to NFP surprises Jobs, jobs, jobs: It’s becoming a mini-theme USD/CAD dropped to a fresh 2025-low below 1.3650 on Thursday before erasing its losses to close flat. In the European morning on Friday, the pair holds steady above 1.3670. Statistics Canada will publish employment data for May later in the day.After reaching its strongest level since February 2022 above 1.3600 on Thursday, GBP/USD lost its traction. At the time of press, the pair was trading in negative territory at around 1.3550. USD/JPY continues to stretch higher and trades near 144.00 after posting modest gains on Thursday.Gold benefited from the broad-based USD weakness in the first half of the day on Thursday and climbed above $3,400. Growing optimism about improving US-China trade relations, however, weighed on XAU/USD. After losing about 0.6% on Thursday, XAU/USD stays in a consolidation phase above $3,350 in the European morning on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs What are Nonfarm Payrolls? Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. How does Nonfarm Payrolls influence the Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions? The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect the US Dollar? Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD. How does Nonfarm Payrolls affect Gold? Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest. Sometimes Nonfarm Payrolls trigger an opposite reaction than what the market expects. Why is that? Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

France Imports, EUR declined to €57.225B in April from previous €58.799B

France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (0.3%) in April

France Trade Balance EUR registered at €-7.968B, below expectations (€-6B) in April

France Current Account dipped from previous €1.4B to €-4.1B in April

France Exports, EUR down to €49.256B in April from previous €52.551B

France Trade Balance EUR below expectations (€-6B) in April: Actual (€-8B)

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Friday that “we have won battle against inflation in Europe.”

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Friday that “we have won battle against inflation in Europe.”“Important to keep full flexibility,” he further noted.Market reactionEUR/USD is losing 0.11% on the day to trade at 1.1430 when writing. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

EUR/GBP extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 0.8430 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross remained stable after the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, and reduced interest rates to 2.0% from 2.25%.

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The currency cross remained stable after the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, and reduced interest rates to 2.0% from 2.25%.In its accompanying statement, the European Central Bank (ECB) ensured to stabilize inflation at the central bank’s 2% medium-term target. The ECB reiterated that a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach will be followed to determine monetary policy stance, especially in current conditions of exceptional uncertainty.Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a post-meeting press conference that monetary policy is “well-positioned,” while the current uncertain outlook is more than usual. Lagarde also added that the central bank is close to ending the easing cycle.Moreover, ECB policymaker Madis Muller noted that he “agrees with President Christine Lagarde that the cycle is almost finished.” On Friday, ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said, “It may well be the case that we pause in July.” Kazaks also noted that inflation has been below 2% for some time, but remains vigilant.The EUR/GBP cross may face challenges as the Pound Sterling (GBP) could receive support from increased risk sentiment. Market sentiment in the United Kingdom (UK) improves as US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday, granting temporary relief to UK exporters from the steep 50% US tariffs on steel and aluminum. The UK still faces the previous 25% tariff rate. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The EUR/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Friday and trades near the mid-164.00s heading into the European session. Spot prices remain close to over a three-week high touched on Thursday and remain well supported by a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/JPY adds to the previous day’s strong move up amid a broadly weaker JPY.Japan’s disappointing macro data and a positive risk tone undermine the JPY.The technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for further appreciation.The EUR/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buying for the second straight day on Friday and trades near the mid-164.00s heading into the European session. Spot prices remain close to over a three-week high touched on Thursday and remain well supported by a broadly weaker Japanese Yen (JPY).The disappointing release of Household Spending data from Japan comes on top of a fall in Japan's real wages for the fourth consecutive month and concerns that global trade tensions may weaken wage momentum. This is expected to complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) efforts to normalize monetary policy, which, along with trade optimism, undermines the safe-haven JPY and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross. From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent move up favor bullish traders. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/JPY cross is to the upside. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 165.00 round figure, en route to the 165.20 area or the year-to-date top touched in May, looks like a distinct possibility. The momentum might then lift the EUR/JPY cross the 165.60-165.65 intermediate hurdle before bulls eventually aim to reclaim the 166.00 mark for the first time since November 2024. On the flip side, the daily swing low, around the 164.25-164.20 area could offer immediate support to the EUR/JPY cross ahead of the 164.00 round figure and the 163.70-163.65 region. Any further weakness could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited near the 163.00 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.12% 0.16% 0.33% -0.07% 0.19% -0.09% 0.21% EUR -0.12% 0.06% 0.20% -0.18% 0.02% -0.19% 0.10% GBP -0.16% -0.06% 0.12% -0.23% -0.03% -0.25% 0.04% JPY -0.33% -0.20% -0.12% -0.35% -0.02% -0.29% -0.18% CAD 0.07% 0.18% 0.23% 0.35% 0.25% -0.01% 0.27% AUD -0.19% -0.02% 0.03% 0.02% -0.25% -0.21% 0.10% NZD 0.09% 0.19% 0.25% 0.29% 0.00% 0.21% 0.28% CHF -0.21% -0.10% -0.04% 0.18% -0.27% -0.10% -0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Friday, “it may well be the case that we pause in July.”

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks said on Friday, “it may well be the case that we pause in July.”Additional quotesMarkets should not expect cuts at every meeting.

Inflation seen below 2% for some time, we have to remain vigilant.

Further cuts would be fine-tuning unless we shift out of baseline scenario. Related news ECB’s Muller: Agree with Lagarde that cycle almost finished German Industrial Production declines 1.4% MoM in April vs. -1% expected EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1440 ahead of US NFP data

South Africa Net $Gold & Forex Reserve climbed from previous $64.318B to $64.804B in May

Germany’s industrial sector activity fell more than expected in April, according to the latest data published by Destatis on Friday.

Germany’s industrial sector activity fell more than expected in April, according to the latest data published by Destatis on Friday.In the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse, Industrial Output dropped by 1.4% MoM, the federal statistics authority Destatis said in figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, against the expected 1% decrease and a revised 2.3% growth reported in March.German Industrial Production dropped 1.8% year-over-year (YoY) in April versus March’s -0.7% revision.Separately, Germany’s Trade Balance for April came in at EUR14.6 billion versus EUR20.2 billion expected and EUR21.2 billion previous.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.43 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $62.65.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.83 after its previous daily close at $65.05.

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Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.83 after its previous daily close at $65.05. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

South Africa Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve rose from previous $67.585B to $68.12B in May

Germany Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) down to -1.8% in April from previous -0.2%

Germany Imports (MoM) up to 3.9% in April from previous -1.4%

Germany Trade Balance s.a. below expectations (€20.2B) in April: Actual (€14.6B)

Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.4% below forecasts (-1%) in April

Germany Exports (MoM) came in at -1.7% below forecasts (-0.5%) in April

United Kingdom Halifax House Prices (MoM) came in at -0.4%, below expectations (0.4%) in May

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday that “we have won battle against inflation in Europe.”

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Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

The EUR/USD pair trades in a limited range around 1.1440 during Asian trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.1440 as investors await the US NFP data for May.Easing US-China trade worries have supported the US Dollar.The ECB reduced its key borrowing rates by 25 bps on Thursday.The EUR/USD pair trades in a limited range around 1.1440 during Asian trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. According to the estimates, the US economy added 130K fresh workers, lower than 171K hired in April. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%.Ahead of the US employment data, the US Dollar (USD) ticks up after holding late-Thursday’s recovery move. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, edges higher to near 98.80.The USD Index bounced back on Thursday after comments from US President Donald Trump in a post on Truth.Social suggested de-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. "The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries.” Trump wrote. The scenario of stable trade relations between the US and China is favorable for the US Dollar, given that Beijing is key exporter to the US.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) underperforms across the board while comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials suggest that the monetary expansion cycle has been concluded for now. ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Estonia Madis Muller stated during early European trading hours that he is comfortable with President Christine Lagarde’s comments, which indicated that the “policy-easing cycle is almost finished”. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.11% 0.05% 0.30% -0.08% 0.17% -0.12% 0.17% EUR -0.11% -0.05% 0.16% -0.18% 0.00% -0.22% 0.06% GBP -0.05% 0.05% 0.21% -0.12% 0.06% -0.16% 0.11% JPY -0.30% -0.16% -0.21% -0.32% -0.02% -0.30% -0.20% CAD 0.08% 0.18% 0.12% 0.32% 0.24% -0.04% 0.22% AUD -0.17% -0.00% -0.06% 0.02% -0.24% -0.22% 0.08% NZD 0.12% 0.22% 0.16% 0.30% 0.04% 0.22% 0.28% CHF -0.17% -0.06% -0.11% 0.20% -0.22% -0.08% -0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). The comments from Christine Lagarde came in the press conference after the monetary policy announcement in which the ECB reduced the Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2%, as expected. This was the seventh straight interest rate cut by the ECB and eighth since June last year when it started the monetary expansion cycle.  Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Next release: Fri Jun 06, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 130K Previous: 177K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

FX option expiries for Jun 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jun 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1300 3.1b1.1400 2.3b1.1500 1.2bUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 142.00 2b146.00 1.3bGBP/USD: GBP amounts1.3410 896m1.3600 413mUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.8250 470m0.8300 415mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6300 1.6bUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3600 1.1b1.4040 1.1b

The USD/CHF pair extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 0.8200 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the bearish bias is prevailing as the pair moves downwards within the descending channel pattern.

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European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Madis Muller said on Friday that he “agrees with President Christine Lagarde that the cycle is almost finished.”

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Hard to say what's coming next on rates.

We are facing more than average uncertainty.Market reactionEUR/USD keeps the red near 1.1436 following these comments, losing 0.06% on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) and falls to near 86.00 during Asian trading hours on Friday. The USD/INR pair strengthens as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unexpectedly cut its Repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%.

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The USD/INR pair strengthens as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has unexpectedly cut its Repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5%.Economists had anticipated that the RBI would cut its repo rate by 25 bps for the third time in a row. An unexpected jumbo rate cut is expected to widen the policy divergence with other central banks, potentially keeping the INR on the backfoot in the near-to-medium term.RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra has stated that a jumbo rate cut was needed to boost economic growth. “Front-loading rate cuts to support growth were felt necessary,” Malhotra said. The RBI has revised inflation guidance for FY26 to 3.7% from 4.0% projected earlier, but has expressed concerns that the last leg of inflation appears to be stickier. “Last mile of inflation turning out a little more protractive,” Malhotra said. Meanwhile, the RBI has changed its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral”, which suggests that the next monetary policy decision could be on either side.Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee falls on RBI’s jumbo rate cutThe upside move in the USD/INR pair is also driven by the US Dollar, which is trading calmly ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to late-Thursday’s recovery move around 98.80. Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. The probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates in the July policy meeting has slightly increased after disappointing US ADP Employment Change and an unexpected contraction in the Services PMI for May, released on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed cutting its borrowing rates in July have increased to 32.8% from 22.5% seen a week ago.Contrary to a slight increase in Fed dovish bets, officials have signaled that interest rates should remain at their current levels for longer as tariffs have prompted upside risks to inflation for an uncertain period. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Thursday that tariffs are likely to “push up prices by an unknown amount in coming months”, Reuters reported. Schmid added that the "likely effect will not be fully apparent for some time." His comments suggested that he was a little concerned about the economic growth and employment. “The extent of the tariffs’ drag on growth and employment is unclear, but I'm optimistic that economic activity can be sustained,” Schmid said.The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy added 130K fresh workers, slightly lower than 171K hired in April. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have grown moderately by 3.7% on year, compared to the prior reading of 3.8%. On month, the wage growth measure is expected to have risen by 0.3%, faster than 0.2% in April. On late Thursday, the US Dollar recovered sharply after US President Trump expressed optimism in a post on Truth.Social that there will be harmony in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. "The call lasted approximately one and a half hours and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries. "There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of rare earth products," Trump wrote.Technical Analysis: USD/INR advances to near 86.00The Indian Rupee slides to near 86.00 against the US Dollar on Friday. The near-term trend of the pair is already bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.47. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles around 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would come into action if the RSI breaks above that level.Looking up, the pair could revisit an over 11-week high around 86.70 after breaking above the May 22 high of 86.10. On the downside, the June 3 low of 85.30 is a key support level for the major. A downside break below the same could expose it to the May 26 low of 84.78. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 103.4 below forecasts (104.1) in April

Japan Coincident Index: 115.5 (April) vs previous 115.9

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), one of the most high-impact economic data releases in the United States (US), is expected to show a further cooling of the jobs market.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 130K in May, down from the 177,000 increase recorded in April.The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the employment report at 12:30 GMT.The US employment report could influence the odds of a July Fed rate cut, rocking the US Dollar.Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), one of the most high-impact economic data releases in the United States (US), is expected to show a further cooling of the jobs market. The main question surrounding the report is whether it will show that labor market conditions are healthy enough for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue to wait before cutting the policy rate.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the NFP data for May at 12:30 GMT. The data could have a strong bearing on the US Dollar (USD) performance in the near term.What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls to show a 130,000 job gain in May after the better-than-forecast 177,000 increase reported in April. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is seen unchanged at 4.2%.Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) in April, following a 3.8% increase in March and April.Previewing the April employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “Job growth should have cooled to its slowest pace in three months, with payrolls registering a below-consensus 110k gain in May.”“We anticipate cooling in job creation for the goods and government sectors, as well as for leisure & hospitality. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay unaltered at 4.2% for a second consecutive month, while wage growth likely picked up to 0.3% m/m,” they added. Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Next release: Fri Jun 06, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 130K Previous: 177K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish. How will US April Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?The US Dollar (USD) struggles to stay resilient against its rivals this week as investors await clarity on US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Additionally, disappointing macroeconomic data releases, such as the Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) monthly report that showed a meager increase of 37,000 in private sector payrolls, contributed to the USD decline.In response to the weak ADP data, US President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell of being too late and called upon him to lower interest rates.Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged earlier this week that the labor market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, Kashkari argued that the central bank must still stay in a wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the best approach for monetary policy is “patient,” adding that the job market appears to be broadly healthy despite showing some signs of weakness.In case the NFP data disappoints with a reading below 100,000, investors could reassess the possibility of a Fed rate cut in July and cause the USD to come under renewed selling pressure. In this scenario, EUR/USD is likely to gather bullish momentum heading into the weekend. Conversely, a significant positive surprise, with an NFP print between 160,000 and 200,000, or higher, could convince markets of at least two more meetings (June and July) in which the Fed will hold interest rates steady. The USD could gather strength with the immediate reaction to such a print and trigger a leg lower in EUR/USD. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 30% probability of a 25 bps reduction in the policy rate in July.Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “EUR/USD clings to a bullish bias in the near term, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holding comfortably well above 50. Moreover, the pair continues to pull away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located near 1.1300, after stabilizing above it in late May.”“On the upside, 1.1500 (static level, round level) aligns as the first resistance level for EUR/USD ahead of 1.1575 (April 21 high) and 1.1700 (static level from February 2021). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.1300 (20-day SMA), 1.1250 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the January-May uptrend, 50-day SMA) and 1.1050 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement)." Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

India Reverse Repo Rate remains at 3.35%

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stronger for the second successive session, maintaining its position near the highest level since February 2012. The price of the grey metal is trading around $36.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.

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The price of the grey metal is trading around $36.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.The prices of precious metals, including Silver, surge as safe-haven demand increases amid soft economic data from the United States (US), fueling the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut expectations. Thursday’s Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 247,000, above the expected 235,000.On Wednesday, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, far below the market expectation of 115,000. ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0.Moreover, traders adopt caution ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is expected to have added 130,000 jobs in May, below the 177,000 increase in April. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.2%.However, the upside of the safe-haven Silver could be restrained as market sentiment improved following a productive call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump expressed that the call was productive and prepared to continue tariff negotiations.Traders would likely observe Monday’s slew of data from China, including consumer, producer prices, and trade data. Given China's status as one of the world's largest manufacturing hubs, the country's industrial demand for Silver is significant. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) below forecasts (5.75%): Actual (5.5%)

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,299.85 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,244.87 it cost on Thursday. The price for Gold increased to INR 108,471.60 per tola from INR 107,830.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,299.85 10 Grams 92,996.99 Tola 108,471.60 Troy Ounce 289,257.90   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold sinks on market mood improvement, high US yields Gold price dives as Wall Street registers modest gains at the time of writing. Also, a spike in US Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding metal, which is set to reverse Wednesday’s gains. Despite this, Gold, usually a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, is up around 29% this year. The US 10-year Treasury yield rises 4.5 basis points to 4.377%. US real yields have followed suit and are also up two basis points at 2.065%, a headwind for Bullion prices. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 31 increased by 247K, above estimates of 235K and up from the previous week's 240K. The data reinforced the ADP Employment Change report for May, which could be a prelude for a negative Nonfarm Payrolls report. The US Trade Balance revealed that the deficit narrowed sharply in May, contracting by 55.5% to $-61.6 billion, the lowest since September 2023. According to Reuters, Metals Focus said, “Central banks worldwide are set to buy 1,000 metric tons of Gold in 2025, marking a fourth straight year of massive purchases as they shift reserves away from [US D]ollar assets.” Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 54.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from levels just above the $3,400 mark or over a four-week peak.

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A modest USD uptick might contribute to capping the commodity ahead of the US NFP report.Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from levels just above the $3,400 mark or over a four-week peak. The commodity, however, remains confined in a multi-day-old range as traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.Heading into the key data risk, some repositioning trade assists the USD to gain some positive traction and move away from its lowest level since April 22 touched on Thursday. Moreover, the optimism over renewed trade talks between the US and China – the world's two largest economies – might contribute to capping the upside for the safe-haven Gold price. This makes it prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the $3,400 round figure before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register modest weekly gains and the supportive fundamental backdrop favors bullish traders. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from repositioning trades ahead of US NFP reportUS President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed to further talks to settle trade disputes. Moreover, Trump said that the call was focused almost entirely on trade and resulted in a very positive conclusion, triggering an intraday pullback in the Gold price from over a four-week high on Thursday.The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived on the back of Trump's rapidly shifting stance on trade policies. Adding to this, some repositioning trade ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report assists the XAU/USD pair to regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Friday.The impactful US monthly employment data is expected to show that the world's largest economy added 130,000 new jobs in May following the stronger-than-expected 177,000 rise recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.2% during the reported month.A host of other employment readings released this week pointed to a cooling in the US labor market, which should give the Federal Reserve more impetus to cut interest rates. Traders are currently pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will deliver at least two 25 basis points rate cuts by the year-end.However, recent comments from a slew of Fed officials suggested that the US central bank might stick to the wait-and-see approach amid persistent trade-related uncertainties. Hence, the crucial US employment details will be looked upon for fresh insight into the Fed's policy outlook and drive the US Dollar.Gold price bulls might now wait for sustained strength beyond $3,400 before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, the top boundary of a multi-day-old range, around the $3,400 round figure, now seems to have emerged as an immediate barrier. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory, a sustained strength beyond the said handle will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. The subsequent move-up could lift the Gold price to the $3,433-3,435 intermediate hurdle en route to the $3,500 neighborhood, or the all-time peak set in April. On the flip side, the $3,334-3,333 area, or the lower end of the range, might continue to protect the immediate downside. Some follow-through selling, leading to a subsequent slide below the $3,326-3,324 horizontal resistance breakpoint, now turned support, could drag the Gold price below the $3,300 round figure, to the $3,286-3,285 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume declined to 0.2% in April from previous 0.9%

GBP/USD maintains its position near 1.3616, the highest since February 2022, which was recorded on June 5. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3570, with little moves ahead of labor market data from the United States (US).

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At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3570, with little moves ahead of labor market data from the United States (US).The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading higher at around 98.80 at the time of writing. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to have added 130,000 jobs in May, below the 177,000 increase in April. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.2%.Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 247,000, above the expected 235,000, as data released by the US Department of Labor. Thursday’s US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.UBS' economist Paul Donovan noted that the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell faces challenges in deciding on monetary policy amid increased uncertainty US economy. The risk of policy error increases as Powell insists on data dependency. Policy operates with a lag, and real-time data, which is unreliable and normally a bad option.The GBP/USD pair receives support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) finds support amid increased risk sentiment in the United Kingdom (UK) markets following US President Donald Trump’s executive order signed on Tuesday. UK exporters still face the previous 25% tariff rate as Trump granted temporary relief to the UK from the steep 50% US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Next release: Fri Jun 06, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 130K Previous: 177K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

The USD/CAD pair strives to hold an almost eight-month low of 1.3635 during Friday’s Asian trading session, posted the previous day.

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The Loonie pair is expected to remain on the sidelines, with investors awaiting the official labor market data from the United States (US) and Canada for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data is expected to show that the economy added 130K fresh workers, slightly lower than 171K hired in April. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have grown moderately by 3.7% on year, compared to the prior reading of 3.8%.This week, the US Dollar saw a sharp sell-off after the US ADP data showed a significant slowdown in private sector labor demand, reflecting the consequences of ever-changing statements on tariff policy by President Donald Trump.Ahead of the key employment data, the US Dollar holds its Thursday recovery move, which came on the back of optimism that the US and China will secure a trade deal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 98.80.On Thursday, US President Trump signaled through a post on Truth.Social that he had a very good call with Chinese leader XI Jinping. "The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries," Trump wrote and added that both nations will meet for the next round of trade talks, but didn’t mention any timeframe.In the Canadian region, the labor market report is expected to show that firms laid off 15K workers in May after adding a mere 7.4K job-seekers in April. This reflects that business owners have held their hiring process in standby, waiting for more clarity on Trump’s tariff agenda. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have increased to 7% from the prior release of 6.9%. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.  

NZD/USD is trading around 0.6030 during the Asian hours on Friday after retreating from the eight-month high of 0.6081, reached on Thursday.

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The currency cross holds losses as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground, with traders’ cautious awaiting of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is expected to have added 130,000 jobs in May, below the 177,000 increase in April. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.2%.UBS' economist Paul Donovan said that the uncertain economic outlook in the United States (US) makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to decide on monetary policy. The risk of policy error increases as Powell insists on data dependency. Policy operates with a lag, and real-time data, which is unreliable and normally a bad option.A productive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has improved the market sentiment. Trump expressed that the call was productive and prepared to continue tariff negotiations. Traders would likely observe Monday’s slew of data from China, including consumer, producer prices, and trade data. Any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), as China and New Zealand are close trade partners.Markets now expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to hold rates steady at its July meeting after delivering a 25 basis point rate cut last week. The central bank is expected to deliver its last rate cut of the cycle in August. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Canadian Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) published a statement on Friday, citing that Canada’s PM Mark Carney spoke with Chinese Premier Li Qiang about trade and bilateral relations.

Canadian Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) published a statement on Friday, citing that Canada’s PM Mark Carney spoke with Chinese Premier Li Qiang about trade and bilateral relations.Key quotesCarney and China’s Li exchanged views on bilateral relations, including the importance of engagement, and agreed to regularize channels of communication between Canada and China.

Carney and China’s Li also discussed trade between the two countries.

Carney and China’s Li committed their governments to working together to address the fentanyl crisis.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices oscillate in a narrow band, around mid-$62.00s during the Asian session on Friday, and remain on track to register gains for the first time in three weeks.

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Hopes for the resumption of US-China trade talks lift expectations for strong fuel demand in the world's two largest economies, which, in turn, act as a tailwind for the black liquid. In fact, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday and agreed that officials from both sides will meet soon for more talks to resolve the ongoing trade war.Furthermore, a hit to Canadian supply from wildfires turns out to be another factor lending support to Crude Oil prices amid persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East. Adding to this, the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) is seen underpinning the USD-denominated commodity. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets around Crude Oil prices and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future rate-cut path and driving the USD demand. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the second consecutive day on Friday in reaction to the disappointing release of Japan's Household Spending data.

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This comes on top of a fall in Japan's real wages for the fourth consecutive month and concerns that global trade tensions may weaken wage momentum, which might complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) efforts to normalize monetary policy. Adding to this hopes for the resumption of US-China trade talks and a positive risk tone turn out to be other factors undermining the safe-haven JPY. This helps the USD/JPY pair to hold steady above mid-143.00s during the Asian session.Meanwhile, market players are still pricing in the possibility that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates in 2025 amid the broadening inflation in Japan. This, along with persistent geopolitical risks, could limit deeper JPY losses. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, languishes near its lowest level since April 22 touched on Thursday amid worries about the worsening US deficit outlook and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further. This could further offer support to the lower-yielding JPY and cap the USD/JPY pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Japanese Yen is pressured by weaker Household Spending data, trade optimismGovernment data released earlier this Friday showed that Japan's Household Spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% from a year earlier in April as compared to the 2.1% increase recorded in the previous month. On a monthly basis, spending declined more than anticipated, by 1.8% during the reported month. The monthly wage data released on Thursday showed that real wages in Japan fell for a fourth consecutive month in April as rising prices continued to outpace pay hikes. This could further undermine private consumption, which contributes to over 50% of Japan’s GDP, and trigger an economic recession. The US Treasury Department, in its exchange-rate report to Congress, said on Thursday that the Bank of Japan should continue to proceed with monetary tightening. The report argued that doing so would support a healthier exchange rate and facilitate needed structural adjustments in trade flows. Japan reportedly is softening its stance on the 25% US auto tariff and instead is proposing a flexible framework to reduce the rate based on how much countries contribute to the US auto industry. Japan’s chief tariff negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, is in Washington for the fifth round of talks with US officials.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on Thursday and agreed that officials from both sides will meet soon for more talks to resolve the ongoing trade war. Trump said that the call was focused almost entirely on trade and resulted in a very positive conclusion. The US Dollar remains close to its lowest level since April 22 touched the previous day amid increasing odds of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets around the USD/JPY pair ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later today. USD/JPY could attract fresh sellers near the 144.00 round figureFrom a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating in a familiar range since the beginning of this week, forming a rectangle on the daily chart. Against the backdrop of the downfall from the May monthly swing low, this might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Moreover, slightly negative oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Hence, any further move up is more likely to attract fresh sellers near the 144.00 round figure. This is followed by the weekly high, around the 144.40 region. The latter coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which if cleared might shift the bias in favor of bullish traders and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 145.00 psychological mark.On the flip side, weakness below the 143.50-143.45 area could be seen as a buying opportunity near the 143.00 round figure. Some follow-through selling, leading to a subsequent slide below the 142.75-142.70 region, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall to the 142.10 region, or last week's swing low. A convincing break below the latter could make spot prices vulnerable to the recent downward trajectory and slide further to the next relevant support near the 141.60 area en route to sub-141.00 levels. Economic Indicator Overall Household Spending (YoY) The Overall Household Spending released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by households. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Thu Jun 05, 2025 23:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: -0.1% Consensus: 1.4% Previous: 2.1% Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan

EUR/USD continues to lose ground after pulling back from a two-month high of 1.1495, marked on June 5, currently trading around 1.1440 during the Asian hours on Friday.

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Traders adopt caution ahead of the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is expected to have added 130,000 jobs in May, below the 177,000 increase in April. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.2%.The US Department of Labor released Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which rose to 247,000, above the expected 235,000. On Thursday, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.US President Donald Trump has a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump said that the call was productive and prepared to continue tariff negotiations. However, Trump and his team struggled to stay composed with Chinese trade officials. Last week, Trump accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs after a Washington-Beijing agreement of temporarily lowering reciprocal tariffs in a meeting in Geneva.On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis points rate cut, as widely expected, and reduced interest rates to 2.0% from 2.25%. The ECB outlined, in its accompanying statement, its meeting-by-meeting approach moving forward and updated its projections for growth and inflation. Moreover, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a post-meeting press conference that monetary policy is “well-positioned,” while the current uncertain outlook is more than usual. Lagarde also added that the central bank is close to ending the easing cycle. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, extending its winning streak for the third successive day. Traders await the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later in the day, seeking fresh insights into the United States (US) economy.

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Traders await the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later in the day, seeking fresh insights into the United States (US) economy.Market sentiment improved following a productive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump expressed that the call was productive and prepared to continue tariff negotiations. However, Trump and his team struggled to stay composed with Chinese trade officials. It is essential to note that any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the AUD, as China and Australia are close trade partners.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes of its May meeting suggested that the policymakers viewed the case for a 25 basis point cut as stronger, preferring a policy to be cautious and predictable. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter expressed caution on Tuesday that “higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy,” and warned that higher uncertainty could dampen investment, output, and employment in Australia.Australian Dollar edges higher as US Dollar struggles ahead of Nonfarm PayrollsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is trading lower at around 98.70 at the time of writing. The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls is expected to have added 130,000 jobs in May, below the 177,000 increase in April. The Unemployment Rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.2%.Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 247,000, above the expected 235,000, as data released by the US Department of Labor. Thursday’s US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile,US President Donald Trump called upon, in a post published on Truth Social on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to lower the policy rate. "ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES," Trump said.On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the labor market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, persistent uncertainty prevails over the economy, and the Fed must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.House Republicans passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over the US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under the “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by July 4.The former biggest Donald Trump backer, Elon Musk, has been attacking Trump’s ‘big beautiful budget bill’ this week via social media. Musk has been openly mocking the Trump budget, which he had played a key role in creating. He criticized that the Trump budget codifies functionally none of the federal spending cuts that he swiftly executed at the start of Trump’s second term without Congressional oversight.Last week, Trump accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs reached earlier this month. Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower reciprocal tariffs in a meeting in Geneva. Trump said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us." US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said that China had failed to remove non-tariff barriers as agreed. In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that China had complied with the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at US "reciprocal tariffs."China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, falling short of the market expectations of a 50.6 expansion. However, the weekend data showed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 from the previous 50.4 figure, falling short of the expected reading of 50.6. The Aussie Dollar could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.Australia’s Trade Balance posted a 5,413M surplus month-over-month in April, below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, declining from the previous 0.6% growth. Australia’s economy fell short of the expected 0.4% rise. Meanwhile, the annual GDP growth rate remained consistent at 1.3%, below the expected 1.5%.Australian Dollar stays above 0.6500, could target seven-month highsThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6510 on Friday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggests the prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. Additionally, the short-term price momentum remains stronger as the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish outlook.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target a seven-month high of 0.6538, which was recorded on June 5. The pair can also explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6680, aligned with the eight-month high at 0.6687.The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6478, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6470. Further decline could weaken the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6405.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.00% -0.04% 0.14% -0.09% 0.07% -0.14% 0.06% EUR 0.00% -0.03% 0.12% -0.08% 0.01% -0.12% 0.06% GBP 0.04% 0.03% 0.14% -0.04% 0.05% -0.09% 0.10% JPY -0.14% -0.12% -0.14% -0.17% 0.05% -0.15% -0.13% CAD 0.09% 0.08% 0.04% 0.17% 0.15% -0.04% 0.14% AUD -0.07% -0.01% -0.05% -0.05% -0.15% -0.13% 0.06% NZD 0.14% 0.12% 0.09% 0.15% 0.04% 0.13% 0.18% CHF -0.06% -0.06% -0.10% 0.13% -0.14% -0.06% -0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1845 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1865 and 7.1935 Reuters estimate.

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Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, when asked about the US Treasury report on exchange rate, said that the monetary policy decision is up to the Bank of Japan.

Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato, when asked about the US Treasury report on exchange rate, said that the monetary policy decision is up to the Bank of Japan. The US Treasury Department said on Thursday that the BoJ should continue to proceed with monetary tightening, arguing that doing so would support a normalization of the yen’s weakness and contribute to a more balanced trade relationship.Market Reaction:The USD/JPY pair sticks to its modest intraday gains for the second straight day and currently trades around the 143.65-143.70 region, though it remains confined in the weekly range ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Japan JP Foreign Reserves down to $1298.1B in May from previous $1298.2B

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) below forecasts (1.4%) in April: Actual (-0.1%)

GBP/USD tested its highest bids in over three years on Thursday, briefly climbing above the 1.3600 handle in intraday trading for the first time in 40 months.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD tested above 1.3600 for the first time in almost four years.Pound Sterling gains march ahead unguarded as USD flows crumple.Markets sentiment is coiling ahead of key US NFP labor figures due on Friday.GBP/USD tested its highest bids in over three years on Thursday, briefly climbing above the 1.3600 handle in intraday trading for the first time in 40 months. Bullish momentum remains tepid, however, with investor sentiment getting hobbled by approaching US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs data due on Friday, as well as a rapidly-accelerating blowout between US President Donald Trump and his (now former) right-hand hatchet man Elon Musk.Jobs are a key focus for investors this week. ADP job postings dropped in May, leading investors to adjust their expectations for the upcoming NFP report. May’s NFP data is projected to show a net gain of 130K jobs, down from last month’s 177K.Elon Musk, former head of the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has been criticizing Trump’s ‘big beautiful budget bill’ on social media. Musk is upset that the budget lacks the federal spending cuts he implemented without Congressional approval at the start of Trump’s second term. Their relationship is deteriorating with ongoing exchanges on social platforms.The Trump team is preparing for trade talks with China after a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump described the call as productive, with tariff negotiations set to continue. However, Trump and his team historically struggle to stay composed with Chinese trade officials. They recently traded insults regarding alleged trade violations related to pre-deal terms agreed upon in Geneva earlier this month.GBP/USD price forecastThursday’s fresh push into three-and-a-half-year highs leaves GBP/USD firmly buried deep in bull country; the pair is already on pace to close in the green for a fifth straight month, and is up over 12.5% bottom-to-top from January’s bottom bids near 1.2100.GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

NZD/JPY climbed over 0.75% on Thursday amid a session that witnessed an escalation of the Trump-Musk fight on social media, which ultimately sent Testla (TSLA) stocks plunging over 14% during the day.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}NZD/JPY holds neutral-to-bullish structure, eyeing 87.01 and May 13 high at 87.73.Broader risk sentiment shrugs off Tesla’s 14% plunge as high-beta FX outperforms.Drop below 86.17 Kijun-sen could expose Kiwi to downside toward 85.00 and 84.30 support zone.NZD/JPY climbed over 0.75% on Thursday amid a session that witnessed an escalation of the Trump-Musk fight on social media, which ultimately sent Testla (TSLA) stocks plunging over 14% during the day. Despite this, high-beta currencies in the FX space, like the Kiwi and the Aussie Dollar, advanced as tensions between Washington and Beijing eased. The pair trades at 86.55 at the time of writing.NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe NZD/JPY is neutral-biased, though it could shift slightly upwards if traders push prices above the May 29 high of 87.01, paving the path to challenge the May 13 high at 87.73. If cleared, the next stop would be the year-to-date (YTD) high of 89.70, ahead of the 90.00 figure.Conversely, If NZD/JPY falls below the Kijun-sen at 86.17, it opens the door to fall toward the Tenkan-sen at 86.10. In the event of further weakness, the following support levels are 86.00, the 85.00 mark, and the top of the Ichimoku cloud (Kumo), which is around the 84.30/50 range.NZD/JPY Price Chart – Daily New Zealand Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.88% -0.81% -0.24% -0.49% -1.08% -1.21% -0.48% EUR 0.88% 0.04% 0.62% 0.37% -0.19% -0.37% 0.39% GBP 0.81% -0.04% 0.62% 0.32% -0.25% -0.42% 0.35% JPY 0.24% -0.62% -0.62% -0.24% -0.83% -0.99% -0.31% CAD 0.49% -0.37% -0.32% 0.24% -0.59% -0.75% 0.02% AUD 1.08% 0.19% 0.25% 0.83% 0.59% -0.10% 0.69% NZD 1.21% 0.37% 0.42% 0.99% 0.75% 0.10% 0.77% CHF 0.48% -0.39% -0.35% 0.31% -0.02% -0.69% -0.77% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

The AUD/JPY prolonged its gains on Thursday and edged up over 0.76% amid a risk-on impulse sparked by news that the US and China might reach an agreement as President Trump spoke with China’s President Xi Jinping during the day. At the time of writing the cross-pair trades at 93.30.

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At the time of writing the cross-pair trades at 93.30.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/JPY is upwardly biased, as the pair has formed a series of successive higher highs and lows, indicating that buyers are gathering momentum. Additionally, price action during the last two trading days formed a ‘bullish engulfing’ candle chart pattern, providing traders with two technical reasons the pair is tilted to the upside.For a bullish continuation, the AUD/JPY needs a daily close above 94.00 if surpassed, the next stop will be the May 13 high of 95.63, followed by February’s high at 97.32, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) high of 99.15, the January 7 peakConversely, if AUD/JPY tumbles below 93.00, expect a drop to challenge May’s 30 low of 92.00; a fall toward the Senkou Span B at 90.83 is on the cards.AUD/JPY Price Chart – Daily Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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