ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

The impact of this week’s US tariff announcement continues to reverberate around global markets. Stocks continue to weaken, havens – bonds – remain strongly bid. China announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on US imports and restrictions on rare earth exports, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD recovers from Thursday’s drubbing"President Trump said that more tariffs (pharma) were coming but suggested concessions could be made in return for 'phenomenal' offers. The global trade war precipitated by the US is weighing heavily on risk sentiment and driving market expectations for slower US growth and lower US interest rates – eroding the 'US exceptionalism' narrative further. Markets are pricing in 110bps of Fed easing by year-end now." "The USD is likely to retain a defensive undertone for the foreseeable future as investors re-allocate capital to more appealing locales. Note that Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook at 11.25ET." "Technically, the DXY may consolidate in the very short run but this week’s break under noted technical support at 103.75/80 (no major resistance) condemns the index to more losses in the medium term – potentially towards the 99/100 area in the next few weeks."

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Unemployment Rate in Canada rose to 6.7% in March as expected.USD/CAD clings to strong daily gains near 1.4200 after the data.The Unemployment Rate in Canada edged higher to 6.7% in March from 6.6% in February, Statistics Canada reported on Friday. This reading came in line with the market expectation.In this period, the Net Change in Employment was -32.6K, down sharply from the 1.1K increase recorded in February. Other details of the report showed that the Participation Rate ticked down to 65.2% from 65.3%, while the Average Hourly Wages rose by 3.5% on a yearly basis, compared to February's 4% increase.Market reactionUSD/CAD preserves its bullish momentum and trades near 1.4200, where it was up more than 0.7% on the day. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.29% 0.73% -0.25% 0.74% 3.25% 2.54% -0.72% EUR -0.29% 0.49% -0.47% 0.50% 2.97% 2.28% -0.96% GBP -0.73% -0.49% -0.93% 0.00% 2.47% 1.79% -1.45% JPY 0.25% 0.47% 0.93% 0.96% 3.46% 2.69% -0.50% CAD -0.74% -0.50% -0.01% -0.96% 2.44% 1.74% -1.45% AUD -3.25% -2.97% -2.47% -3.46% -2.44% -0.67% -3.83% NZD -2.54% -2.28% -1.79% -2.69% -1.74% 0.67% -3.18% CHF 0.72% 0.96% 1.45% 0.50% 1.45% 3.83% 3.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

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AUD/USD falls like there is no tomorrow due to a significant acceleration in RBA dovish bets.The RBA is expected to cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) in all three next policy meetings.US NFP data for March has come in at 228K, beating estimates of 135K.The AUD/USD pair tanks more than 3.5% below 0.6100 during early North American trading hours on Friday. The Aussie pair plummets like a house of cards as the new suite of tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump has prompted market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates aggressively this year. The pair has made an intraday low of 0.6049, the lowest level seen in almost five years. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.15% 0.64% -0.44% 0.85% 3.49% 2.66% -0.89% EUR -0.15% 0.54% -0.58% 0.75% 3.34% 2.55% -0.98% GBP -0.64% -0.54% -1.10% 0.21% 2.82% 2.02% -1.52% JPY 0.44% 0.58% 1.10% 1.36% 3.99% 3.10% -0.39% CAD -0.85% -0.75% -0.21% -1.36% 2.56% 1.76% -1.72% AUD -3.49% -3.34% -2.82% -3.99% -2.56% -0.78% -4.22% NZD -2.66% -2.55% -2.02% -3.10% -1.76% 0.78% -3.46% CHF 0.89% 0.98% 1.52% 0.39% 1.72% 4.22% 3.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Analysts at ANZ Bank expect the RBA to cut interest rates in all the next three policy meetings in May, July, and August. Additionally, the bank also sees the possibility of a larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) in May if global growth deteriorates significantly.In addition to bloating RBA dovish bets, fears of a potential trade war between the US and China have also weighed on the Australian Dollar (AUD). During European trading hours on Friday, Beijing threatened to impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US imports from April 10 as a countermeasure to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday.Escalating concerns over the surrendering Chinese economic outlook weighs on the Aussie dollar, given that Australia relies significantly on its exports to China.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strives to gauge support due to comfort from upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March after surrendering its intraday gains. The US NFP report showed that the economy added 228K fresh workers, significantly higher than estimates of 135K and the former reading of 117K, downwardly revised from 151K. The Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.2% against estimates and the prior release of 4.1%.Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, rose moderately by 3.8% year-on-year compared to expectations of 3.9% and the former reading of 4%. Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Last release: Fri Apr 04, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 228K Consensus: 135K Previous: 151K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.    

The Silver price even slumped by more than 6% at times yesterday and slipped further today to USD 31.2 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Platinum and Palladium also fall significantly"This means that Silver has lost all its gains since the beginning of March in one fell swoop. As a result, the gold/Silver ratio rose to 99 today, the highest level since July 2020. There are apparently concerns that the US tariffs will lead to a noticeable slowdown in the global economy, which would also affect industrial Silver demand." "Platinum and Palladium also fell significantly, albeit less sharply than Silver. It is true that the share of industrial demand for these two precious metals is even greater than for Silver. However, in contrast to Gold and Silver, Platinum and Palladium had hardly risen at all previously."

The Gold price initially rose to a new record high of $3,168 per troy ounce in response to US President Trump's tariff announcements, but then fell back significantly, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Gold is off its record highs for now"At times, the price fell more than $100 from the aforementioned record high in the course of trading. It is not unusual for Gold to initially come under pressure in times of high risk aversion. This is because market participants often liquidate their Gold positions in order to offset losses elsewhere. Gold usually recovers its losses quickly, which could also be the case this time.""After all, the market is now expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year. At the same time, inflation risks are rising in the US due to tariffs. This combination points towards a significantly lower real interest rate and therefore a higher Gold price.""Gold, as well as other precious metals, was exempted from the tariffs. As a result, there is no longer any reason to ship Gold to the US to the same extent as before. Gold inventories on the Comex have risen by 720 tons since the beginning of the year. Yesterday there was a further increase of 18 tons. This additional demand is now likely to cease or at least be significantly lower going forward."

Scope for US Dollar (USD) to weaken to 7.2430 before stabilisation can be expected vs Chinese Yuan (CNH); it is unclear if 7.2150 will come into view. In the longer run, outlook is unclear after sharp and short-lived swings; for the time being, USD could trade between 7.2000 and 7.3000, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD has a chance to trade between 7.2000 and 7.300024-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected 'further USD strength' yesterday, we highlighted that 'the rally appears to be excessive, and any advance is likely part of a higher range of 7.2900/7.3500.' USD then rose to 7.3485 before staging a sharp drop to 7.2746. It continues to decline in early Asian trade today. While deeply oversold, there is scope for USD to weaken to 7.2430 before stabilisation can be expected. Currently, it is unclear if there is enough momentum for USD to reach the major support at 7.2150. On the upside, resistance levels are at 7.2750 and 7.3000."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We indicated yesterday, 03 Apr, when USD was at 7.3100 that 'the recent surge in momentum 'suggests the outlook for USD remains positive' and 'the levels to monitor are 7.3500 and 7.3800.' USD subsequently rose to 7.3485 and then plummeted. The outlook is unclear after the sharp and short-lived swings. For the time being, USD could trade between 7.2000 and 7.3000."

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Brent has pulled back after facing strong resistance around the 200-DMA ($76) recently, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Brent to reach $63 in the near term "It is fast approaching last September/March lows at $68.70/68.10, which is also a trend line connecting troughs of March 2023/September 2024. This remains a crucial support. It will be interesting to see if Brent can form a base near this zone and attempt a bounce." "Failure defend it may result in an extended downtrend. Next objectives could be located at projections of $65.50/64.70 and $63."

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a 145.20/147.50 range vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, too early to expect weakness to stabilise, but USD must break and hold below 145.00 before further decline is likely, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.USD/JPY to continue declining below 145.0024-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp decline in USD two days ago and early yesterday, we indicated that 'although the outsized decline has resulted in a sharp and swift rise in downward momentum, conditions are deeply oversold.' However, we pointed out 'as long as USD remains below 149.40, it could continue to weaken.' We also pointed out 'given the oversold conditions, any decline is unlikely to reach the major support at 146.50 today.' The subsequent steep selloff that reached a low of 145.18 was surprising. The decline remains deeply oversold and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. Today, USD is more likely to trade in a 145.20/147.50 range."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (03 Apr, spot at 148.00), we highlighted that 'the increase in momentum indicates further USD weakness.' We added, 'the level to watch is 146.50.' We did not expect USD to reach 146.50 within hours as it plunged and closed lower by a whopping 2.13% (146.06), its largest one-day drop since Dec 2023. Despite being deeply oversold, it is too early to expect the weakness to stabilise. On the other hand, the 145.00 level is a significant support and USD must break and hold below this level before further decline is likely. On the upside,should USD break above 149.00 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 150.10 yesterday), it would indicate that the weakness has stabilised. In the near-term, 147.50 is already a notable resistance level."

EUR/GBP has crossed above the 200-DMA resulting in a steep up move, Societe Generale's FX analysts report. Defence of 0.8375 is crucial for persistence in uptrend"It is attempting a breakout from a multi-month consolidation. Upper limit of the descending channel drawn since 2023 at 0.8510/0.8530 is next potential resistance zone. If the pair establishes above this hurdle, a larger upside is likely." "Next objectives could be located at projections of 0.8575 and last August high at 0.8625/0.8650. Defence of the MA at 0.8375 will be crucial for persistence in uptrend."

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5850 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, for further sustained rise, NZD must close above 0.5850, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.Above 0.5850, NZD is set to rise further24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected NZD to 'trade in a 0.5670/0.5770 range' yesterday. However, after dropping to a low of 0.5682, NZD surged to 0.5852 before pulling back to close at 0.5794 (+0.85%). The rapid rise appears to be overdone. Instead of continuing to rise, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5850 today."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (03 Apr, spot at 0.5735), we indicated that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 0.5640 and 0.5800.' We did not expect NZD to break above 0.5800. The increase in momentum indicates NZD could continue to strengthen. However, for further sustained rise, it must close above 0.5850. Looking ahead, the next resistance is at 0.5890. The probability of NZD closing above 0.5860 will remain intact as long as 0.5680 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached."

Copper and other industrial metals slumped on Thursday amid concerns about how Trump’s latest tariffs threaten the global growth outlook, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.Beijing can cap the downside for copper and other industrial metals."Although all base and precious metals, including Gold, were exempted from the new levies, concerns about the latest tariffs hurting demand for raw materials is weighing on the sentiment. A global trade war is bearish for copper and other industrial metals in the context of slowing global growth.""Gold joined the sell-off on Thursday, after hitting a fresh record high earlier in the day. Profit-taking pressured prices, while the rush to ship metal to the US will calm down after the precious metal was excluded from new tariffs. However, the sell-off should be short-lived, with escalating trade actions likely to continue to bolster safe-haven buying. Trump’s unpredictable trade policy has been one of the key drivers for Gold so far in 2025.""The impact of tariffs on China is particularly in focus for metals markets. Higher-than-expected US tariffs are likely to drag on Chinese growth and inflation this year. China has been quite measured in its reaction to the first two rounds of tariffs. But a sharp 34% tariff escalation risks a stronger response both in terms of domestic stimulus and potential retaliation. More aggressive stimulus measures from Beijing could cap the downside for copper and other industrial metal prices."

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Greenback is partially recovering lost ground against most major peers. Focus shifts now to the Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking. The US Dollar Index is heading back above 102.00. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is trying to recover while trading around 102.50 at the time of writing on Friday. The dust is settling on United States (US) President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The focus now shifts towards the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech up next. On the economic calendar front, expectations for the NFP range from 80,000 to 200,000, with the consensus view at 135,000 for March’s performance. Seeing the slide in JOLTS Job Openings and the surge in Challenger Job Cuts announcements this week, the question will be if that 135,000 is not an overly-elevated expectation. Markets can look for guidance from Powell, who will speak briefly thereafter. Daily digest market movers: Last NFP standingAt 12:30 GMT, US employment data for March will be released:Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to come in at 135,000 compared to 151,000 in February. A drop below 80,000 could see some more USD weakness whereas a number above 200,000 would see a stronger USD.The monthly Average Hourly Earnings should remain stable at 0.3%.The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in at 4.1% as in February.At 15:25 GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks about the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference. At 16:00 GMT, Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on AI and Banking. Fed Governor Chris Waller will speak at 16:45 GMT on Payments at a New York Fed Conference. Asian and European Equities sink again between 1% to 2% on average. US futures are looking heavy as well ahead of the US opening bell, though losses are contained to less than 1%. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 68.1%, coming from 81.5% last week. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 92.6%, whereas only last week, the odds were roughly 81.1%.The US 10-year yields trade around 3.95%, a fresh five-month low with the next low to bear near 3.69% from the beginning of October 2024.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: There goes the pendulumThe pendulum is swinging for the US Dollar Index, with strength on the left and weakness on the right. On the left, there have been years of US Dollar strength, which was perceived as a market standard. However, since the start of March – with the defense budget spending bill in Germany and US President Donald Trump in office – the pendulum for the DXY has swung. More US Dollar weakness is likely once the tariff impact on the US economy starts to take its effect. As stagflation and recession fears are picking up, the DXY could easily fall below 100.00 later this year.With the sizable downward move on Thursday, some support levels have turned into resistance. The first level to watch out for is 103.18, which has been held as support throughout March. Above there, the 104.00 pivotal level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.89 come into play. On the downside, 101.90 is the first line of defense and it should be able to trigger a bounce as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is issuing warnings of oversold conditions on the daily chart. Maybe not this Friday, but in the coming days, a break below 101.90 could see a leg lower towards 100.00. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Instead of continuing to rise, AUD is more likely to trade in a 0.6260/0.6360 range. In the longer run, AUD must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6410 before further advances can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.AUD/USD to advance further above 0.641024-HOUR VIEW: "AUD fluctuated in a wide range on Wednesday. Yesterday (Thursday), we were of the view that AUD 'could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely between 0.6220 and 0.6320.' AUD then dropped to 0.6226 before soaring to 0.6390, pulling back sharply to close at 0.6329(+0.46%). The pullback in overbought conditions suggests that instead of continuing to rise, AUD is more likely to trade in a 0.6260/0.6360 range."1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (03 Apr, spot at 0.6265), we highlighted that 'the recent sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook.' We added, 'for the time being, AUD could trade in a 0.6185/0.6340 range.' While AUD subsequently broke above 0.6340, after the recentchoppy price movements, the increase in momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained rise. AUD must break and hold above the significant resistance at 0.6410 before further advances can be expected. The likelihood of AUD breaking this resistance will remain intact, provided that it remains above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6235."

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}USD/CAD recovers from the 200-day EMA to near 1.4160 ahead of US/Canada employment data for March.Tariffs by US President Trump are expected to weigh on global economic outlook.Fed Powell is expected to provide cues about how Trump tariffs-driven inflation will impact the monetary policy outlook.The USD/CAD pair rebounds to near 1.4160 during European trading hours on Friday from an almost four-month low of 1.4026 posted on Thursday. The Loonie pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) attracts bids even though the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has raised concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 102.60 from its recent lows of 101.25.Market experts believe that Trump’s tariffs will result in a resurgence in inflation and weigh on economic growth. However, Trump is confident that his protectionist policies will increase manufacturing jobs in the US.Meanwhile, investors await the labor market data from both the United States (US) and Canada, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US and the Canadian economy are expected to have added 135K and 12K fresh workers in March. During the North American session, investors will also focus on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for fresh guidance on the monetary policy outlook.USD/CAD recovers from 1.4026, testing the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the February 17 low around 1.4160. The pair bounced back after attracting bids near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4070.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to recover above 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI fails to climb above the 40.00 level.A fresh downside would appear if the pair breaks below the December 6 low of 1.4020. The scenario would expose the pair to the psychological support of 1.4000, followed by the November 25 low of 1.3927.On the flip side, the pair would strengthen if it breaks above the April 3 high of 1.4320. Such a scenario would send the major higher to near the April 1 high of 1.4415 and the March 14 high of 1.4447.USD/CAD daily chart  Related news Nonfarm Payrolls forecast: US jobs decline expected in March, adding pressure to the Fed rate path Trump administration sued over Chinese import tariffs - Reuters USD/CAD tumbles to near 1.4100 as US Dollar nosedives on US recession risks

Oil prices took a big hit yesterday as a barrage of new tariffs raised concerns over global growth and the outlook for oil demand. ICE Brent settled more than 6.4% lower on the day – the largest sell-off since August 2022, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.OPEC+ announces a surprise agreement to increase supply in May"It wasn’t just tariff concerns weighing on the market, but also OPEC+ announcing a surprise agreement to increase supply in May by more than expected. Under its original plan, OPEC+ was to increase supply by 135k b/d in May. The group will now increase supply by 411k b/d. OPEC+ cited healthy fundamentals and a 'positive market outlook' for the move. However, we believe tariff uncertainty clouds the outlook for demand and prices.""Possibly, the group feels that the prospect of stricter sanctions against Venezuela and Iran allows them to increase supply. Or maybe President Trump has been successful in convincing the Saudis to increase supply. There have also been suggestions that the group seeks to punish producers that consistently produced above their targets. Either way, this brings forward the expected surplus that we see in the oil market this year.""More OPEC+ supply should translate to more medium sour crude oil and a wider Brent-Dubai spread. This spread has seen an unusual discount for much of the year. It's partly driven by OPEC+ withholding large volumes of oil from the market at a time when buyers are looking for alternative supplies amid tougher sanctions on Iran, Venezuela and Russia."

Over recent months, EUR/GBP has tended to sell off on tariff-related headlines, given that the eurozone is far more exposed to US trade than the UK. Yet EUR/GBP surprised yesterday and spiked higher, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.0.8475 is decent resistance for EUR/GBP"Two factors are at play, we think. The first is that the euro has better liquidity than sterling and will benefit more as investors leave the dollar. The second is that the looming global trade war is proving the greater leveller for rate spreads." "The 'exceptionalism' of high UK interest rates is being unwound, where UK two-year swap rates fell 12bp more than their eurozone counterpart yesterday. This may be a dominant theme in the near term.""0.8475 is decent resistance for EUR/GBP, above which 0.8550 will be the target. Sterling is also a liquid reserve currency so can benefit from the shift away from the dollar. However, GBP/USD has come a long way in a short period of time and may be due some consolidation in the 1.30-32 area."

Price action suggests the rally is pausing; Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range between 1.3040 and 1.3200 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, overbought conditions could lead to a couple of days of range-trading; there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3300 later on, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3040 and 1.320024-HOUR VIEW: "After GBP surged on Wednesday, we highlighted yesterday that 'while the sharp rally appears to be excessive, it is not showing any signs of pausing just yet.' However, we pointed out, “given the deeply overbought conditions, GBP is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3080.” GBP easily broke above 1.3080 and reached 1.3207 before pulling back sharply to close at 1.3100 (+0.68%). The price action suggests that the rally is pausing. Today, we expect GBP to trade in a range between 1.3040 and 1.3200." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday, 03 Apr, when GBP was at 1.3030, we highlighted the following: 'Upward momentum is building rapidly, but GBP must break and hold above 1.3080 before further gains are likely. The likelihood of GBP breaking clearly above 1.3080 will remain intact as long as 1.2940 is not breached.' We did not anticipate GBP to surge to 1.3207. While deeply overbought short-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of range-trading, as long as 1.2940 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) is not breached, there is a chance for GBP to test the major weekly resistance at 1.3300 later on."

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD retraces to near 1.0970 as the US Dollar recovers ahead of the US NFP data for March and Fed Powell’s speech.The reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump have underpinned global economic risks.Investors expect the ECB to cut interest rates again in April.EUR/USD corrects below 1.1000 during European trading hours on Friday after posting a fresh six-month high at 1.1145 the previous day. The major currency pair retraces as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs-driven sell-off and ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due to in the North American session.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 102.60 from its six-month low of around 101.25.Economists expect the US economy to have hired 135K fresh workers in March, lower than the 151K in February. The Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained steady at 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings are estimated to have grown at a slower pace of 3.9% year-on-year compared to the 4% increase seen in February, with monthly figures rising steadily by 0.3%. The impact of the employment data is expected to be limited on market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook unless there is a dramatic change in labor market figures, as investors are more concerned over potential inflation risks.According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have become increasingly confident that the central bank could cut interest rates in the June policy meeting after President Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs. The Fed's probability of keeping interest rates in their current range of 4.25%-4.50% has also diminished to 65.8% from 81.5% recorded a week ago.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD falls as US Dollar reboundsEUR/USD declines as the US Dollar recovers from its recent lows. However, the outlook of the USD remains uncertain as the imposition of harsh-than-expected reciprocal tariffs by Donald Trump has led to market experts becoming pessimists on global economic growth, including in the US.Market participants expect the implementation of full-scale tariffs will stoke inflation and weigh on US economic growth. Such a scenario will lead to stagflation in the economy, making the Federal Reserve’s job more complicated.On Wednesday, a 10% baseline levy on all imports into the US was announced, which will become effective on Saturday. Additionally, Trump slapped different tariffs for each country, ranging from 10% to 49%.To get fresh cues on Trump’s tariffs’ impact on the economy, investors will pay close attention to Fed Powell’s speech in which he is expected to hint about the likely monetary policy the central bank will maintain during the year.Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) declines as investors expect Trump’s tariffs would weaken the Eurozone economic growth. Investors worry about a potential trade war between the Eurozone and the US over Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs. European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the consequences will be “dire for millions of people around the globe”. Von der Leyen warned that the Eurozone is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with Washington fail.Additionally, firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in April have also put some pressure on the Euro. ECB officials expect that Trump’s tariffs-driven inflation won’t be persistent in nature. Hence, it is not a major obstacle to further easing the monetary policy.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD surrenders some of Thursday’s gainsEUR/USD gives up some of the prior day’s gains and declines to near 1.0970 during European trading hours on Friday. The major currency pair rallied to 1.1147 on Thursday after a decisive breakout above the prior resistance of 1.0955, which is March’s highest level. The near-term outlook of the major currency pair remains bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resumes its upward journey, trading around 1.0820.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, indicating an active bullish momentum.Looking down, the prior resistance at 1.0955 and the March 31 high of 1.0850 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The US Dollar's direction today is likely to be largely determined by the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will be released at 1:30 pm BST. The employment report has taken a back seat in terms of its impact on the USD in recent months due to US tariff policy. Nevertheless, it remains a very important, if not the most important, economic indicator for the US, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. USD can come under renewed pressure"And today could be an exciting day. After the US labour market added an average of 162,000 jobs per month over the past 12 months, median expectations are slightly lower at 140,000. However, analysts' estimates vary widely. At the lower end, only 80,000 new jobs are expected, while the most optimistic analyst forecasts 200,000 new jobs.""This is probably also due to the fact that the hard data from the labour market are currently telling a different story than the sentiment indicators. For example, initial jobless claims have remained stable at low levels in recent weeks, while the JOLTS report continues to show low quit rates and high vacancy rates. By contrast, there has been more movement in the surveys of late. Yesterday, the employment component of the services ISM fell 7 points, deep into the sub 50 (46.2) range that signals job cuts, and to its second lowest level since the end of the pandemic.""So if today's reading is in line with median expectations or even higher, it should provide significant support for the US dollar. Recession fears, which at the moment are mainly based on sentiment indicators, would then ease somewhat. On the other hand, if the reading is at the lower end of expectations or even below, as our economists expect, the US dollar will come under renewed pressure."

Outsized rally seems excessive; instead of continuing to rise, Euro (EUR) is more likely to pause and trade in a 1.0950/1.1150 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, upside risk is intact; it remains to be seen if EUR can break the significant weekly resistance zone of 1.1215/1.1230, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR can target the significant weekly resistance zone of 1.1215/1.123024-HOUR VIEW: "After EUR traded in a volatile manner the previous day and early yesterday, we highlighted that 'the outlook is unclear' and we held the view that USD 'could continue to trade in a choppy manner, probably between 1.0810 and 1.0955.' We did not anticipate the surge in EUR that resulted in a daily gain of 1.80% (1.1050), its biggest one-day rise since Nov 2022. The outsized rally seems excessive and instead of continuing to rise, EUR is more likely pause and trade in a 1.0950/1.1150 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted yesterday, 03 Apr, when EUR was at 1.0890 that 'the bias for EUR is on the upside.' We also highlighted that 'the 1.0955/1.0985 zone is expected to offer solid resistance.' However, EUR not only blew past the resistance zone, but it also surged further to 1.1144. While the upside risk is intact, it remains to be seen if EUR can break the significant weekly resistance zone of 1.1215/1.1230. The upside risk will stay intact as long as 1.0850 is not breached (‘strong support’ level was at 1.0770 yesterday)."

Thursday's trading session saw a number of interesting moves, one of which was the upward movement in EUR/GBP. At first glance, this was a bit surprising, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes. 20% tariff on EU imports was largely expected"After all, the UK only got the minimum 10% tariff, while the EU got twice that – and at the same time the German car industry in particular got tariffs of up to 25%. The relative outperformance of the euro is probably due to the fact that the c, while the UK was always expected to be exempt from tariffs given its current account deficit with the US. So it does not help that the UK is relatively less affected than the EU.""But the tariffs raise a number of questions that go beyond the performance of sterling. The US government's aim in imposing reciprocal tariffs is to eliminate the current account deficit with other countries, i.e. the US government's aim seems to be to have balanced trade balances with all countries. Whether or not this has been thought through, countries that import more US goods than they export are also being punished symmetrically (e.g. Brazil in addition to the UK).""It would actually make sense for the UK to import less US goods (or export significantly more goods to the US, e.g. coming from the EU, which has a higher tariff) and thus run a current account surplus with the US, to the point where the UK would receive a 10% tariff. It's hard to imagine that this is the US government's aim. But it shows how little thought has been given to these tariffs in some cases."

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price breaks below $3,100 as market rout continues. Markets are still looking for direction after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. Gold is still pressured by profit-taking and looking for support to bounce off from. Gold price (XAU/USD) is falling near 1% on Friday and, in the process, is snapping back below $3,100 to $3,082 at the time of writing. Bullion was able to avoid a complete meltdown by paring back Thursday’s losses, which were at one point over 2.50%, by closing off at only a loss of -0.65% just above $3,115. More selling pressure is currently at play while market participants mull their next moves and positioning. Meanwhile, the focus this Friday will shift to the United States (US) economic data with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Expectations for the Nonfarm Payrolls range from 80,000 to 200,000, with the consensus view at 135,000. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell might soothe markets with comments just thereafter, while investors are adding to the conviction that the central bank might cut interest rates four times by the end of this year. Daily digest market movers: Stagflation fears on the agendaGold stands to benefit this year from an increasingly volatile trade, macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, having surged almost 18% this year, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool sees chances for an interest rate cut in May standing at 33.2% and growing. A  cut in June is still the most plausible outcome, with only a 9.4% chance for rates to remain at current levels. In the overall yield curve since Thursday, markets are betting on three or even four markets. More and more scenarios are coming out for the possibility of the US sliding into a period of stagflation. In that case, Bullion would emerge as the winner, Reuters reports. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index currently stands at -2.84%.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Look for the big pivotal levelsIt is pretty normal that the Gold price rally was due to some profit-taking. This opens the door for opportunities, as the rally is not done yet. However, the tailwind for the next leg in the rally will change from tariff angst now to recession or stagflation fears. Looking up, the daily Pivot Point at $3,112 must be reclaimed before aiming to revisit the all-time high at $3,167. That might be the limit on Friday, with the R1 resistance just above it at $3,170 and reinforcing this area as a strong barrier for further gains. There are very slim chances that the R2 resistance at $3,226 would be visited this Friday.On the downside, the S1 support at $3,057 makes sense as the first support, seeing the bounce it triggered on Thursday. Further down, the $3,000 level is being exposed this Friday as the S2 support only comes in just below it at $2,998.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $31.39 per troy ounce, down 1.46% from the $31.85 it cost on Thursday. Silver prices have increased by 8.63% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 31.39 1 Gram 1.01
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 98.40 on Friday, up from 97.80 on Thursday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The euro is proving the surprise beneficiary of the trade-driven sell-off in risk assets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD faces s massive trend resistance in the 1.11-1.12 area"Normally, EUR/JPY has a strong positive correlation with risk assets, whereas this week, the euro has been holding its own. That has nothing to do with a positive re-assessment of eurozone growth prospects. No, the news there is terrible and could get worse should EU trade officials - meeting on Monday in Luxembourg - decide to retaliate." "Recall that it's really only the trade blocs of the EU and China which have the economic muscle to retaliate. Instead, we believe it is the alternative liquidity offered by the euro. No doubt this is something European policymakers are keen to explore - and we'll be writing on the subject over coming weeks on what needs to happen to make the euro a more attractive asset for FX reserve managers.""For EUR/USD, there is some massive trend resistance in the 1.11-1.12 area – marking its bear trend off its 1.60 high in 2008. We'll probably need to see another big move lower in US equities to take out that area near term. However, we suspect buyers will emerge in the 1.1020 as doubts continue to grow about a sea-change in the dollar's pre-eminient position as a store of value."

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver continues losing ground for the second straight day and drops to a one-month low.The technical setup favors bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.Any attempted recovery might now be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.
Silver (XAG/USD) adds to the previous day's heavy losses and attracts some follow-through selling for the second successive day on Friday. This also marks the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six and drags the white metal to a one-month low, around the $31.15 region during the first half of the European session.
With the latest leg down, the XAG/USD confirms a breakdown through a multi-month-old ascending channel and now seems to have found acceptance below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the December-March move-up. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the white metal is to the downside.
Hence, a subsequent fall towards testing sub-$31.00 levels, or confluence support comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fbo. level, looks likely a distinct possibility. A convincing break below the said support will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. This would pave the way for an extension of the recent sharp retracement slide from the $34.55-$34.60 region, or the year-to-date high touched on March 28.
On the flip side, any recovery above the 50% Fibo. level, around the $31.65-$31.70 region, could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $32.00 round-figure mark, or the ascending channel support breakpoint. However, some follow-through buying, leading to a further move up beyond the $32.30-$32.35 region (38.2% Fibo. level), might prompt a short-covering rally and allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $33.00 mark.
Silver daily chart

Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling trades firmly above 1.3000 against the US Dollar as Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have dampened the US economic outlook. Investors await the US NFP data for March and Fed Powell’s speech.The UK economy appears to be in a better position among all US trading partners after the release of Trump’s detailed reciprocal tariff plan.The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto Thursday’s gains above 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Friday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday has resulted in shockwaves for the global and the domestic outlook.On the so-called “Liberation Day”, Trump swept a universal 10% baseline import duty, along with reciprocal tariffs on almost all of its trading partners, which were half of what they charge from the US. Trump's tariffs have jolted global equity markets as plans for fresh investments by business owners have been jeopardized. Market experts believe that the imposition of full-scale import duties and potential countermeasures by US trading partners could temper global economic growth for a longer term. On Thursday, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva commented that higher levies by US President Trump clearly represent a “significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth”. Georgieva urged the US and its trading partners to work constructively to “resolve trade tensions and reduce uncertainty”.In the US, firms were already worried that tariffs could potentially impact business activity, and now, harsher-than-expected duties would weaken their confidence further. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed this week that the New Orders Index of March in both the manufacturing and the services sector came in significantly lower than in February.In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which are scheduled in the North American session. The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy added 135K workers, lower than 151K hired in February. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 4.1%. The impact of the employment data would be limited on market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook as officials are more concerned about upside risks to inflation due to Trump’s tariffs.Investors will pay close attention to Fed Powell’s speech to know how the central bank will battle potential tariff-driven inflation. Market participants would like to know whether the Fed will compromise its 2% inflation objective to address likely economic shocks.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades lower against its peersThe Pound Sterling underperforms its major peers, except antipodeans, on Friday. The British currency faces pressure as investors expect the United Kingdom (UK) economy to face significant pressure from potential global economic risks even though the country is in a better position among trading partners of the US after the “Liberation Day”. No country can work in isolation as globalization has provided a platform to all nations to explore new markets for their products.US President Trump imposed 10% tariffs on the UK, the lowest figure on duty rates for all trading partners. Investors worry that nations that have attracted higher tariffs, such as China, the Eurozone, India, and South Africa, would look for other avenues to export their products. Such a scenario would promote activities like dumping, making products from the UK less competitive in the global market.Ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement, the UK Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) warned on Monday that Trump’s policies could wipe out the government fiscal buffer and cut the economy’s size by as much as 1%.Meanwhile, investors brace for more inflation in the UK as business owners would look to pass on the impact of higher contributions to social security schemes. In the Autumn Statement, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves raised employers’ contributions to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15%, which became effective this month.Fears of a resurgence in inflation in the UK would firm market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a moderate policy-easing approach.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling remains firm above 1.3000The Pound Sterling grips gains above 1.3000 against the US Dollar on Friday. The GBP/USD pair rallied on Thursday after building base around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from late-September high to mid-January low, near 1.2930. The upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2934 suggests that the near-term outlook is bullish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, indicating an active bullish momentum.Looking down, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2930 will act as a key support zone for the pair. On the upside, the September 26 high of 1.3434 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. for

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish March employment data, which will feature Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and wage inflation figures. Later in the session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be delivering a speech. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.76% -0.66% -2.50% -1.13% 1.05% 0.40% -2.81% EUR 1.76% 1.22% -0.69% 0.68% 2.94% 2.24% -1.03% GBP 0.66% -1.22% -1.94% -0.49% 1.69% 1.03% -2.18% JPY 2.50% 0.69% 1.94% 1.41% 3.68% 3.01% -0.40% CAD 1.13% -0.68% 0.49% -1.41% 2.23% 1.54% -1.70% AUD -1.05% -2.94% -1.69% -3.68% -2.23% -0.66% -3.85% NZD -0.40% -2.24% -1.03% -3.01% -1.54% 0.66% -3.20% CHF 2.81% 1.03% 2.18% 0.40% 1.70% 3.85% 3.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The USD Index fell more than 1.5% on Thursday as US President Donald Trump's tariff announcements revived fears over a stagflation in the US economy. Wall Street's main indexes declined sharply as well. The Nasdaq Composite registered its largest one day loss in about 5 years, with a nearly-6% decline, the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4%. US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.6% and 0.3%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that sweeping tariffs announced by the Trump administration represent a significant risk to the global economy at a time when growth has been sluggish. In the meantime, Fitch Ratings said that the US growth in 2025 is likely to be slower than the 1.7% that they had projected in March, given higher-than-anticipated tariffs. "Tariff hikes will result in higher consumer prices and lower corporate profits in the US," the agency noted.Nonfarm Payrolls in the US are forecast to rise by 135,000 in March, following the 151,000 increase reported in February. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver his prepared remarks on the economic outlook and join a moderated discussion at the annual conference for the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing in Arlington, Va. Related news Nonfarm Payrolls forecast: US job growth expected to slow in March as uncertainty weighs on outlook Trump administration sued over Chinese import tariffs - Reuters Quick comments on the markets reaction to tariffs EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in six months above 1.1100 on Thursday. The pair corrects lower and trades at around 1.1050 in the European morning on Friday.GBP/USD surged above 1.3200 but erased a portion of its daily gains in the second half of the day on Thursday. The pair turns south to begin the European session and trades below 1.3050.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Friday that US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and the global economies. USD/JPY stays in a consolidation phase slightly above 146.00 after falling more than 2% on Thursday.Gold fluctuated in a wide range on Thursday and ended the day in negative territory. Following an impressive rally to a new record-high of $3,167 during the Asian session, XAU/USD dropped all the way to $3,054 before closing above $3,110. The pair stays on the back foot and trades below $3,100 in the European morning. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.31 per barrel, down from Thursday’s close at $66.33. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.63 after its previous daily close at $69.63. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia. Disclaimer: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil prices mentioned above are based on FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $928.97 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $934.80. In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $946.34 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also under pressure after the XPT/USD pair settled at $952.77 at the previous close. Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium? Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities. What is Palladium in trading? In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike. Is Palladium more expensive than Gold? Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary. What does the price of Palladium depend on? Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Friday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 94.21, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 94.25 Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades at 111.26 against the INR in the early European trading hours, also losing ground after the GBP/INR pair settled at 111.58 at the previous close. Indian economy FAQs How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee? The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR. What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee? India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee. How does inflation in India impact the Rupee? Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee. How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee? India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee. Rates for Indian Rupee crosses mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs). (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF tumbles to near 0.8550 in Friday's early European session, losing 0.55% on the day. The economic uncertainty under fresh Trump’s tariff policy boosts the safe haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc.The Swiss CPI rose by 0.3% YoY in March, softer than expected. 
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8550 during the early European session on Friday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The Swiss Franc (CHF) gathers strength against the Greenback amid an increased risk-off mood by investors. Investors will keep an eye on the US employment data from March, which is due later on Friday. 

The markets flock to safe-haven assets in response to US President Donald Trump's unexpectedly aggressive tariffs on major trading partners. Trump's reciprocal tariff plans call for a 10% tariff on all US imports except those that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The Trump administration imposed a 31% levy on Swiss imports.

Nonetheless, the concerns over the economic slowdown in the United States on the tariff news and related further fall in US stocks continue to undermine the USD. Risks to the US economy were also seen in rising bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate reduction, which might contribute to the USD’s downside. 

Short-term interest-rate futures are now pricing in nearly 70% odds of a Fed rate cut in the June meeting, up from about 60% before the tariffs were announced, according to the CME FedWatch tool.  

On the Swiss front, the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% YoY in March, compared to an increase of 0.3% prior, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported on Thursday. This figure came in slightly below market forecasts of 0.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was flat, in line with the consensus and following a spike in February of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the CHF has benefited from the massive uncertainty in the financial markets and the ongoing geopolitical tensions.  Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

FX option expiries for Apr 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1000 1.1b1.1030 844m1.1050 1.8bGBP/USD: GBP amounts     1.2875 656mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 147.00 1.4b149.00 557mUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.8875 659mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6180 951m0.6200 1.6b0.6300 1.4b0.6350 2.3bUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3950 590m1.4050 857m1.4200 1.3b

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} The official data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed Friday that Germany's Factory Orders showed no growth in February, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector is stagnating.Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ arrived at 0% in February after plunging by a revised 5.5% in January. Data missed the estimates of 3.5%.Germany’s Industrial Orders declined 0.2% year-over-year (YoY) in February, compared with the previous upward revision of 0.1%.FX implicationsThe Euro is losing ground after the mixed German data, with EUR/USD still adding 0.19% on the day to trade near 1.1075, as of writing. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.13% 0.08% -0.07% -0.00% 1.29% 1.22% -0.49% EUR 0.13% 0.25% 0.10% 0.17% 1.44% 1.39% -0.31% GBP -0.08% -0.25% -0.15% -0.08% 1.20% 1.14% -0.56% JPY 0.07% -0.10% 0.15% 0.06% 1.34% 1.21% -0.40% CAD 0.00% -0.17% 0.08% -0.06% 1.24% 1.19% -0.47% AUD -1.29% -1.44% -1.20% -1.34% -1.24% -0.06% -1.74% NZD -1.22% -1.39% -1.14% -1.21% -1.19% 0.06% -1.68% CHF 0.49% 0.31% 0.56% 0.40% 0.47% 1.74% 1.68% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD climbs to around 1.1080 in Friday’s early European session, adding 0.67% on the day. Trump announced a 20% tariff on European Union imports, effective on April 9. Money markets have priced in nearly 80% odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut in April. The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.1080 during the early European session on Friday bolstered by the broader US Dollar weakness. Investors await the German Factory Orders and US employment report, which will be published later on Friday. 

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled sweeping global tariffs of at least 10% on goods imported from most US trading partners. The Trump administration plans to impose a 20% tariff on EU goods and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners. The tariffs will take effect on April 9. 

Worries about the impact of an escalating global trade war and a slew of weaker-than-expected US data raise the fear of a sharp global economic slowdown. This, in turn, drags the USD lower and acts as a tailwind for EUR/USD. 

Across the pond, the markets increased their bets on future European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts on Thursday as the tariff announcement by Trump increased fears of a trade war that would hurt the Eurozone growth. Money markets have priced in a nearly 80% possibility of a 25 basis points (bps) ECB rate cut in the April meeting, according to the Reuters poll.  The rising expectation of ECB rate reduction could weigh on the shared currency in the near term.  Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} After the overnight corrective pullback in Comex Gold from all-time highs, Gold price in India also follows suit on Friday. Traders resort to taking profits off the table after the record rally backed by US President Donald Trump's tariff war, bracing for the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech later in the day.  When writing, Gold price is seen trending lower at 8,495.89 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, following Thursday's close of INR 8,529.00, according to data compiled by FXStreet. At the same time, the price for Gold declines to INR 99,094.37 per tola from INR 99,480.59 per tola a day seen on Thursday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,495.89 10 Grams 84,958.75 Tola 99,094.37 Troy Ounce 264,251.80   Global Market Movers: Gold price catches a breather ahead of key US event risks Gold price attracts some sellers for the second successive day on Friday, though a combination of factors should continue to act as a tailwind and limit any meaningful corrective slide from the record high. US President Donald Trump rattled global financial markets late Wednesday and unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which could negatively impact the world economy. Traders ramped up expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs four times by the year-end as Trump's trade policies reignite US recession fears. The yield in the benchmark 10-year US government bond slides below 4.0% for the first time in six months and fails to assist the US Dollar to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-month trough. Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that economic activity in the US services sector eased momentum in March, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 50.8 from 53.5 in February and missing estimates. Separately, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 219K for the week ending March 29 from the 225K previous. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the XAU/USD bulls. Hence, the modest downtick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the release of the monthly US employment details. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the US economy added 135K new jobs in March, though the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1%. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD attracts some sellers to around 0.5720 in Friday’s early European session, down 1.22% on the day. Potential US-China trade war and RBNZ rate cut bets weigh on the Kiwi. Investors will closely monitor the US NFP data, which is due later on Friday.The NZD/USD pair falls to near 0.5720 during the early European session on Friday. The fears of an escalation of a trade war between the United States (US) and China exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi. The highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for March will be released later on Friday.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its April meeting next week. The New Zealand central bank has cut rates by a cumulative 175 bps since August last year. UBS analysts suggested that the RBNZ would maintain a dovish stance throughout this cycle, and the central bank may consider a more aggressive 50 bps rate cut in its upcoming meeting. The rising bets of RBNZ rate reductions could weigh on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Greenback. 

Additionally, US President Donald Trump would impose a 54% total tariff rate on imports from China, starting April 9. Chinese imports had already been subject to a 20% tariff. An additional 34% in reciprocal tariffs will be imposed, according to the official.  The potential trade war between the world's two largest economies could drag the China-proxy Kiwi lower as China is a major trading partner to New Zealand.

The broader US Dollar weakness might help limit the NZD’s losses. The US March employment data is due on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could undermine the Greenback and cap the downside for the pair. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are scheduled to speak later on the same day. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices trade with negative bias for the fourth straight day on Friday and slide back below the $66.00/barrel mark during the Asian session. The commodity languishes near its lowest level in over three weeks and remains on track to register heavy weekly losses.
US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs announced late Wednesday raised concerns about a widening trade war, which could slow economic growth and dent fuel demand. Adding to this, eight OPEC+ members unexpectedly advanced their plan to phase out production cuts and raise combined crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day in May. This, in turn, sparks oversupply concerns and turns out to be a key factor weighing on the black liquid.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) languishes near the lowest level since October touched on Thursday amid bets that a tariff-driven US economic slowdown might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This is seen offering some support to USD-denominated commodities and holding back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around Crude Oil prices. Investors now look forward to the US employment details for a fresh impetus.
The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the US economy added 135K new jobs in March, though the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1%. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics later during the North American session and produce short-term trading opportunities around Crude Oil prices. The market focus, however, will remain glued to trade-related headlines. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to rise by 135K in March, following a 151K gain reported in February.The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the jobs data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.US labor data could impact the Fed’s interest rate path, potentially affecting the US Dollar's price action.The all-important United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday at 12:30 GMT.Amidst US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies-induced increased recession risks and escalating trade war fears, the details of the March employment report will be closely scrutinised to gauge the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next interest rate move and the US Dollar’s (USD) performance in the near term.Trump announced on Wednesday a 10% baseline tariff on most goods imported to the US, with much higher duties on products from dozens of countries, including its major trading partners  – China, Japan and the European Union (EU).What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 135,000 jobs in March, following a 151,000 job gain in February. The Unemployment Rate (UER) is likely to remain at 4.1% during the same period.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to increase by 3.8% year-over-year (YoY) in March, following a 4.0% growth in February.Following the March policy meeting, the Fed left its benchmark policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but the Bank’s updated quarterly projections, the so-called Dot Plot chart, signalled two interest rate cuts this year. The Fed also raised its inflation forecast while lowering its growth and employment outlook due to the impact of Trump's tariffs, fueling concerns about potential stagflation in the US.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post-policy press conference, stated that “uncertainty around policy changes and economic effects is high” due to US tariffs. “If the labor market weakens, we can ease if needed,” Powell noted before quickly adding that “we are not going to be in any hurry to move on rate cuts.”Therefore, the March jobs data will likely hold the key to gauging the US labor market conditions, which could alter expectations for this year's Fed rate cuts. Markets are fully pricing in the US central bank's likely resumption of its rate-cutting cycle in June.Previewing the March employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “Payrolls likely lost modest momentum in March amid rising uncertainty around the US economic outlook and given DOGE-related layoffs.”“We also look for the UE rate to rise for a second month straight to 4.2%,” they added.How will US March Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?The US Dollar has been on the losing end against its major currency rivals due to heightened fears of a recession, primarily driven by US President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Will the US NFP report help change the USD’s fate?  Earlier in the week, the BLS reported that the JOLTS Job Openings declined to 7.56 million in February, down from 7.76 million in January. The reading hit the lowest level since September 2024. Meanwhile, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) published data on Wednesday, which showed that the American private sector added 155,000 jobs in March, a sharp increase from the upwardly revised 84,000 in February and better than the forecast for 105,000.That said, the stakes are high as the US employment data release approaches, amid increased expectations that the Fed will need to opt for aggressive rate cuts in the wake of the economic fallout from Trump’s tariffs.Hence, a disappointing labor market report, with an NFP reading below 120,000, could bring forward expectations for a May Fed rate cut. In this scenario, the USD is expected to see a fresh leg lower, driving EUR/USD further northward. Conversely, market participants could refrain from pricing in a May rate cut if the NFP data offers a positive surprise with a reading above 150,000.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: “The main currency pair trades close to its highest level in seven months above the 1.1050 level, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding within the overbought region. This suggests that there is a scope for a fresh pullback. Buyers look for acceptance above the 1.1050 psychological level for a sustained uptrend. Further north, the seven-month high of 1.1147 could be retested.”“In case EUR/USD fails to sustain above 1.1050, the immediate support will come in at 1.0900. A daily close below this support level could prompt a test of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0860. A deeper correction will likely challenge the 200-day SMA at 1.0731.” Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 04, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 135K Previous: 151K Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

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The AUD/USD pair comes under intense selling pressure during the Asian session on Friday and retreats further from a nearly three-week high, around the 0.6400 neighborhood touched the previous day. The steep intraday downfall drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, around the 0.6245 region in the last hour, and is sponsored by a combination of factors.
US President Donald Trump unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, with China facing 54% levies under this new regime. In response, China’s Commerce Ministry stated that it will resolutely take countermeasures to safeguard its rights and interests. This, in turn, raises the risk of a further escalation of a trade war between the world's two largest economies and turns out to be a key factor undermining the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD).
Meanwhile, Trump's sweeping trade tariffs sparked concerns about global economic growth and a recession in the US, which continues to weigh on investors' sentiment, which is evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets. This, along with speculations that a tariff-driven slowdown might force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates up to four times in 2025, further contributes to driving flows away from the perceived riskier Aussie.
The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest bounce from the lowest level since October amid bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon. This, however, does little to lend any support to the AUD/USD pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for a fresh impetus. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register modest weekly losses. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's late rebound from the $3,054 area, or a one-week low, and attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity slid back below the $3,100 mark in the last hour, though the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful corrective slide from the all-time peak touched on Thursday.
Concerns that US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs could dent global economic growth and trigger a recession in the US might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, the US Dollar (USD) languishes near a multi-month low amid rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon and should help limit losses for the non-yielding yellow metal.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains depressed despite a combination of supporting factorsGold price attracts some sellers for the second successive day on Friday, though a combination of factors should continue to act as a tailwind and limit any meaningful corrective slide from the record high.US President Donald Trump rattled global financial markets late Wednesday and unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which could negatively impact the world economy. Traders ramped up expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs four times by the year-end as Trump's trade policies reignite US recession fears.The yield in the benchmark 10-year US government bond slides below 4.0% for the first time in six months and fails to assist the US Dollar to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-month trough. Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that economic activity in the US services sector eased momentum in March, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 50.8 from 53.5 in February and missing estimates.Separately, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 219K for the week ending March 29 from the 225K previous. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the XAU/USD bulls. Hence, the modest downtick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the release of the monthly US employment details.The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the US economy added 135K new jobs in March, though the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1%.
Gold price might continue to find support near the overnight swing low, around $3,056-3,054 pivotal supportFrom a technical perspective, any subsequent fall might continue to find decent support near the $2,056-2,054 horizontal zone. The said area nears the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the corrective slide further towards the $3,036-3,035 intermediate support en route to the $3,000 psychological mark,
On the flip side, the $3,115-3,125 congestion zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. This is followed by resistance near the $3,143 area and the all-time peak, around the $3,157-3,158 region touched on Thursday, which if cleared could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the Gold price's recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD trades with negative bias for the fourth successive day amid the prevalent USD selling bias.Worries that Trump’s tariffs might trigger a US recession lift Fed rate cut bets and weigh on the buck.The overnight downfall in Crude Oil prices undermines the Loonie and lends some support to the major.Traders also seem reluctant to place fresh directional bets ahead of the US/Canadian jobs reports.
The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure for the fourth straight day on Friday and currently trades around the 1.4070 area, down 0.15% for the day. Spot prices hang near a four-month low touched on Thursday and seem poised to heavy weekly losses, though a combination of diverging factors warrants caution for bearish traders.
The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the overnight modest bounce from its lowest level since October amid concerns that US President Donald Trump's tariffs might trigger a recession and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its rate-cutting cycle. This led to the overnight slump in US Treasury bond yields and kept the USD bulls on the defensive, which continues to exert downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
However, the risk of a further escalation of the US-Canada trade war might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD). In fact, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that the previously announced retaliatory tariffs will remain in effect and that Canada will impose 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA trade deal.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil prices consolidated Thursday's steep decline to a multi-week low amid worries that the widening trade war may dent global economic growth and dampen fuel demand. This could further undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and contribute to limiting the downside for the USD/CAD pair. Furthermore, traders might opt to wait for the US/Canadian jobs report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee steadies in Friday’s Asian session. Recovery in foreign inflows, weaker US Dollar and lower crude oil prices could support the INR. The Indian HSBC PMI and US employment data will be the highlights later on Friday. 
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades flat on Friday after gaining in the previous session. A robust recovery in local equities could provide some support to the Indian currency. Additionally, the safe haven status of the US Dollar (USD) might be diminished due to concerns about how trade policy may impact growth in the US. This, in turn, might help limit the INR's losses. The fall in crude oil prices could also help the Indian Rupee rebound as India is the world's third-largest oil consumer. 

Traders brace for the final readings of India’s HSBC Composite and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which are due later on Friday. On the US docket, all eyes will be on the US March employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could boost the Greenback against the INR in the near term. Indian Rupee flat lines ahead of highly-anticipated US NFP dataTrump said on Wednesday that he would impose 26% tariffs on imports from India effective from April 9, a component of his comprehensive plan to place duties on all US imports.The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February. This reading came in lower than the estimation of 53.0.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said late Thursday that interest rates remain well positioned despite a high degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook. Jefferson added that there is no need to be in a hurry on policy rate adjustments.Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted that the US central bank can take its time to assess a highly unsettled environment before moving interest rates again, amid risks inflation could worsen due to tariffs, per Reuters.Short-term interest-rate futures are now pricing in nearly 70% odds of a Fed rate cut in the June meeting, up from about 60% before the tariffs were announced, according to the CME FedWatch tool. USD/INR’s bearish bias lingers despite mild recoveryThe Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. The USD/INR pair paints a negative picture on the daily chart as the price remains capped below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaches oversold territory below the 30.00 mark, suggesting that a temporary recovery or further consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term. 

In the bearish case, the low of April 3 at 85.20 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Further south, the next contention level is seen at the 85.00 psychological level, followed by 84.84, the low of December 19. 

On the bright side, the immediate resistance level to watch is 85.87, the 100-day EMA. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to 86.48, the low of February 21, en route to 87.00, the round mark.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen bulls take a brief pause amid worries about the economic fallout from Trump’s tariffs.The risk-off mood and relatively hawkish BoJ expectations could reinstate a bullish tone for the JPY. The USD selling bias contributes to capping USD/JPY ahead of the release of the crucial US NFP report.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday amid worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. The concerns forced investors to scale back their bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates at a faster pace and undermine the JPY. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for further policy tightening by the BoJ.
This, along with the prevalent risk-off environment, could offer some support to the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, sustained US Dollar (USD) selling, fueled by expectations that Trump's tariffs will trigger a US recession and bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, should contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Japanese Yen draws support from Trump’s tariffs-inspired risk-off mood, divergent BoJ-Fed expectations
In a major blow to Japan's auto industry, which accounts for around 3% of gross domestic product, US President Donald Trump's 25% tariff on car imports takes effect as scheduled on Thursday. Moreover, bets for early interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan retreated amid concerns that harsher US reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday could negatively impact Japan's economy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond tanked on Thursday, posting its biggest drop since August 5 and hitting its lowest level since February 26. This, in turn, is seen weighing on the Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Friday and assisting the USD/JPY pair to register a modest recovery from the lowest level since October touched the previous day. Meanwhile, Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Thursday that he will not hesitate to directly approach US President Donald Trump, if appropriate, and will continue to demand the US to reconsider tariff measures. Separately, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Kato warned earlier this Friday that tariffs could have a significant impact on trade systems and global economies. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Trump tariffs are likely to put downward pressure on Japan, and global economies, though reiterated that the BoJ will guide monetary policy appropriately from the standpoint of sustainably achieving a 2% inflation target. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said that the central bank will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens. This comes on top of strong Tokyo consumer inflation figures on Friday, which backs the case for further tightening by the BoJ. In contrast, traders are ramping up expectations for the Federal Reserve to start lowering borrowing costs again in June and cut interest rates four times this year amid concerns that Trump's policies will trigger an all-out trade war and a global recession.The outlook, in turn, led to the overnight slump in the US Treasury bond yields, dragging the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond and the US Dollar to their lowest level since October. This might keep a lid on the USD/JPY pair's attempted recovery. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US monthly employment details before placing aggressive bets.
USD/JPY seems vulnerable to further downside extension below the 145.00 mark, toward the 144.50-144.45 support

From a technical perspective, the overnight break below the previous year-to-date low, around the 146.55-146.50 area, was seen as a fresh trigger for the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside and supports prospects for a further depreciating move. Hence, a subsequent fall below the overnight swing low, around the 145.20-145.15 region en route to the 145.00 mark and the next relevant support near the 144.50-144.45 zone, looks like a distinct possibility.
On the flip side, any attempted recovery back above the 146.50-146.55 region (the previous YTD low) is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 147.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 147.75-147.80 hurdle. This is closely followed by the 148.00 mark, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for additional gains towards the 148.60 intermediate barrier en route to the 149.00 mark and the 149.20 horizontal zone. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Friday that US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and the global economies.Key quotesUS tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies.

Hard to say now how US tariffs will affect Japan’s price moves.

Will closely monitor US tariff impact on Japan, overseas economic and price developments in deciding monetary policy.

We will scrutinise data, including from hearings, available at the time of each policy meeting to gauge US tariff impact on Japan’s economy, prices.

We will guide monetary policy appropriately from the standpoint of sustainably achieving 2% inflation target.

When the external environment changes sharply, our growth and price forecasts will change, so will guide monetary policy accordingly in an appropriate manner.Market reaction  At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.17% on the day to trade at 146.33. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD trades with mild gains near 0.6330 in Friday’s early Asian session. The US ISM Services PMI dropped to 50.8 in March, weaker than expected. China threatens retaliation after Trump hits it with a total of 54%, the highest US tariff on any country.The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6330 during the early Asian session on  Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as US President Donald Trump's fresh trade tariffs stoke fears of a global recession. Traders will closely monitor the US Nonfarm Payrolls data from March, which will be released later on Friday. 
Worries about the impact of an escalating global trade war and a slew of weaker-than-expected US data raise the fear of a sharp global economic slowdown, which drags the USD lower broadly. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Thursday showed that the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February. This reading came in lower than the estimation of 53.0.

The Trump administration on Wednesday announced that the US will impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States (US). China was hit hard, facing a tariff of at least 54% on many goods. Chinese authorities threaten retaliation after Trump hits it with the highest US tariff on any country. This, in turn, might exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Aussie, as China is the major trading partner to Australia. 

However, the encouraging Chinese economic data might help limit the AUD’s losses. China’s Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.9 in March from 51.4 in February. This figure came in stronger than the 51.6 expected.  Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Friday that the central bank will raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against the background of continued improvements in the economy. Key quotesWill raise interest rates if underlying inflation heightens against background of continued improvements in the economy. 

We will examine, without any preset idea, whether our economic, price forecasts laid out in our quarterly report will be achieved.

We will scrutinise at each meeting economic, price developments and risks including the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Trump tariffs are likely to put downward pressure on Japan, global economies.

There are various upside, downside impacts on prices that could come from Trump tariffs,

Trump tariffs could push down prices if they cool the economy, but may push up prices via impact on global supply chains.

Trump tariffs could affect prices via market, FX moves.Market reaction  At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.08% on the day to trade at 146.19.  Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Kato said late Thursday that he is concerned about US tariffs that will impact the Japanese economy and could have a significant impact on trade systems. However, Kato does not comment on foreign exchange. Key quotesWarns tariffs could have a significant impact on trade systems.

Also impacts economies.

Says has no comment on foreign exchange.  Market reaction  At the press time, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.15% on the day to trade at 146.28.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} New Civil Liberties Alliance, a conservative legal group, on Thursday filed what it said was the first lawsuit seeking to block US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports, claiming that the president overstepped his authority, per Reuters. Key quotes
The suit claims Trump exceeded his legal authority by imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

It was filed in federal court in Florida and targets both the April 2 sweeping tariffs and those from February 1.

The NCLA argues Trump has misused emergency powers, violated the Constitution’s separation of powers, and overstepped Congress’s authority on tariff policy.

The lawsuit seeks a court order to block the tariffs’ enforcement and reverse changes to the U.S. tariff schedule.

The White House has not yet commented on the case.
Market reactionAt the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.05% on the day at 102.01.  US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rose 1.8% on Thursday, breaking north of 1.1000.Bullish momentum cooled later in the day, but the Greenback remains notably on weaker footing.US NFP net job gains are on deck next, due on Friday.EUR/USD rallied hard on Thursday, with the Euro getting pushed higher alongside the rest of the market as the US Dollar tumbles on the heels of the Trump administration’s combined flat and “reciprocal” tariff packages that were unveiled this week. Forex Today: US NFP will be in the limelightThis week, the European side of the economic data docket is relatively sparse, but a new report on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be published on Friday. This NFP data could significantly influence markets as the US economy transitions to a post-tariff landscape, with March’s labor figures expected to serve as a “bellwether” for the effects of the Trump administration’s tariff strategies. US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures through March further hampered investor sentiment on Thursday, falling to a nine-month low of 50.8 and declining at one of its fastest month-on-month rates since the pandemic. Business activity and consumer confidence evaporated in the run-up to the Trump administration’s tariffs, and post-tariff realities are unlikely to see sentiment recover quickly.Fed's Jefferson warns Fed is not in a rush to change ratesFed's Cook expects inflation progress to stall after tariffsThe Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff proposals have ignited global backlash, with former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers claiming the government calculated tariffs without proper data. This claim aligns with the Trump team’s publications, which explain that their reciprocal tariffs are computed by dividing a country’s net exports to the US by imports from the US and then halving that figure, with a minimum tariff of 10%. As a result of the Trump administration’s tariff “methodology”, the US has imposed a 10% “reciprocal” tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands, A territory that remains entirely uninhabited by humans. US President Donald Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports effective April 5, with calculated “reciprocal” tariffs starting on April 9. According to Fitch Ratings, US economic growth will dip below the downgraded forecast from March. The Fitch Ratings agency has warned that the effects of Trump's tariffs will also reach the Federal Reserve (Fed), which may delay interest rate cuts as it monitors the inflation and employment impacts of these tariffs. EUR/USD price forecast On Thursday, EUR/USD experienced a significant rally, climbing substantially and settling close to the 1.1100 mark following the European session. The pair achieved notable intraday gains, propelled by ongoing bullish momentum that moved it toward the upper half of its broad daily range. Despite some oscillators signaling caution, the moving average configuration supports the bullish trend as it heads into the Asian session. The technical outlook still leans toward the bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) increased to 72.32, indicating overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a sell signal, suggesting possible exhaustion. Nevertheless, other momentum indicators, such as the Williams Percent Range at -18.88 and Momentum at 0.022, provide a mixed to bullish perspective. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japanese media Asahi reported on Thursday that the Japanese government is considering what actions to take over the new tariffs, including an extra budget.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Thursday highlighted its disappointment and "serious concern" over the US move to impose reciprocal tariffs on the Asian nation's products. Ishiba said that he will continue to urge the US to reconsider. Market reaction At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 0.01% on the day at 146.06.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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The precious metal trims losses after falling over 2% from an all-time high, as a broader market selloff triggered by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs policy infected Gold traders. Traders attributed gold’s dip to profit-taking and investors selling some of their bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

However, the downside for the yellow metal might be capped amid the fears that Trump's tariffs could dampen economic growth. The heightened uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. "As the market sold-off on the deleveraging pressures, the market was looking for buying opportunities on the dip," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
All eyes will be on the US March employment data on Friday, including Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the Greenback and cap the upside for the USD-denominated commodity price. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, and Christopher Waller are set to speak later on the same day.  Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that sweeping tariffs announced on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump represent a significant risk to the global economy at a time when growth has been sluggish. Key quotes Says U.S. tariff measures represent a ‘significant risk to the global outlook’ at a time of sluggish growth. Says it is important to avoid steps that could further harm the world economy. We appeal to the US and its trading partners to work constructively to reduce tensions.  

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The Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariffs and a flat tariff have kicked the legs out from beneath market sentiment, despite a delayed reaction to tariff announcements that came after US markets closed on Wednesday.Forex Today: US NFP will be in the limelightThis week, the UK economic data release schedule is relatively sparse, but a new report on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be published on Friday. This NFP data could significantly influence markets as the US economy transitions to a post-tariff landscape, with March’s labor figures expected to serve as a “bellwether” for the effects of the Trump administration’s tariff strategies. US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures through March further hampered investor sentiment on Thursday, falling to a nine-month low of 50.8 and declining at one of its fastest month-on-month rates since the pandemic. Business activity and consumer confidence evaporated in the run-up to the Trump administration’s tariffs, and post-tariff realities are unlikely to see sentiment recover quickly.Fed's Jefferson warns Fed is not in a rush to change ratesFed's Cook expects inflation progress to stall after tariffsThe Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff proposals have ignited global backlash, with former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers claiming the government calculated tariffs without proper data. This claim aligns with the Trump team’s publications, which explain that their reciprocal tariffs are computed by dividing a country’s net exports to the US by imports from the US and then halving that figure, with a minimum tariff of 10%. As a result of the Trump administration’s tariff “methodology”, the US has imposed a 10% “reciprocal” tariff on Heard Island and McDonald Islands, A territory that remains entirely uninhabited by humans. US President Donald Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports effective April 5, with calculated “reciprocal” tariffs starting on April 9. According to Fitch Ratings, US economic growth will dip below the downgraded forecast from March. The Fitch Ratings agency has warned that the effects of Trump's tariffs will also reach the Federal Reserve (Fed), which may delay interest rate cuts as it monitors the inflation and employment impacts of these tariffs. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD caught a firm bid on Thursday on the back of weakening Greenback flows. However, Pound Sterling bulls caught a firm technical rejection from the 1.3200 handle and pushed bids back to the 1.3100 region. Despite a flubbed bullish extension, Cable has broken out of a near-term consolidation range and is poised for further upside as the pair continues to trade north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2735. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

NZD/USD trades near the 0.5800 zone on Thursday, extending gains ahead of the Asian session.Momentum remains positive with MACD showing a buy signal, while RSI and other oscillators hold in neutral territory.Support rests at 0.5776 and 0.5749, while 0.5850 and the 200-day SMA cap upside potential.The NZD/USD pair continued its positive run on Thursday, holding firm near the 0.5800 area and gaining momentum ahead of the Asian session. Price action remains contained within the upper section of the daily range, signaling steady demand even as short-term momentum indicators remain mixed. Overall, the pair is supported by key short-term averages that lean in favor of further upside. Daily chart From a technical perspective, the outlook leans bullish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flash a buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.87 remains neutral but tilted higher. Other oscillators such as the Williams Percent Range (WPR) at -27.16 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12.35 also reflect a neutral tone, indicating a lack of extreme conditions in momentum. Key short-term moving averages, including the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.57495, 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.57362, and the 20-day SMA at 0.57449, all suggest upside support. The 100-day SMA at 0.57199 reinforces the positive bias. On the flip side, the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.59049 stands as a key resistance level, alongside the 0.58517 zone, which could limit bullish continuation in the near term. Support is seen at 0.57766, followed by 0.57629 and 0.57495. These levels could cushion any pullbacks should momentum stall. Overall, while the pair remains buoyant, further gains may depend on a break above the 200-day SMA, which would strengthen the bullish case further.