ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex
23:02 Canadian Dollar continues to gain ground, but momentum is fizzling
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) tested fresh eight-month peaks against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Canadian Dollar tested a new eight-month high against the US Dollar on Thursday.Overall market momentum remains limited ahead of key US NFP labor figures.Loonie gains could get capped from here as Canadian firms fear an economic downturn.The Canadian Dollar (CAD) tested fresh eight-month peaks against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. Loonie gains remain limited, however: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs figures will be closing out the trading week, and investors are growing apprehensive about labor and economic growth factors on both sides of the 49th parallel.The Bank of Canada (BoC) held interest rates flat this week after seven consecutive rate cuts, helping to boost the Loonie. However, topside momentum remains limited as Canadian businesses grow increasingly wary of decaying economic conditions.Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar tests higher ground as Greenback swirlsThe Canadian Dollar briefly tested fresh eight-month highs against the US Dollar, sending USD/CAD below 1.3650 for the first time since October of last year.Market sentiment remains tight as investors head into Friday’s US NFP labor data release window.US NFP net job gains for May are expected to slow to 130K versus the previous print of 177K.Investor sentiment remains further constrained as traders watch US President Donald Trump and former Trump taskmaster Elon Musk go to loggerheads on social media.Canadian labor data is due to get eclipsed on Friday by NFP’s long shadow, however that may be for the best for Loonie longs: Canadian Net Change in Employment is expected to contract by 15K net jobs in May, wiping out April’s scant 7.4K growth.Canadian Dollar price forecastThe Canadian Dollar has gained ground or held steady against the US Dollar for all but two of the last 16 consecutive trading sessions, pushing USD/CAD into fresh multi-month lows below 1.3650. The pair has fallen 2.72% top-to-bottom from May’s swing high into 1.4015, and long-run downward trendline channels are keeping price action locked on bearish rails.USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
22:39 Mexican Peso strengthens ahead of Friday’s NFP data, with US-Mexico relations in focus
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is on track to extend its winning streak for a second consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.
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At the time of writing, USD/MXN is trading near the new yearly lows, around 19.15, as market participants shift their focus to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due Friday, which could provide fresh direction for the pair.USD/MXN continues to weaken with the US labour market in focus ahead of Friday’s NFP dataDuring the European session, risk appetite remained fragile, but confirmation of a productive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping helped ease some market jitters, lifting overall sentiment.For the United States, attention now turns to Friday’s release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, a key labor market indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Analysts expect the US economy to have added 130,000 jobs in May, marking a slowdown from the 177,000 gain in April. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN monitors US-Mexican relations, US labour market conditionsWeekly Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday rose to 247,000, above the expected 235,000. The report followed Wednesday’s weak ADP employment data, which showed that just 37K jobs were added to the US private sector in May.On Wednesday, tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the US increased from 25% to 50%.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum labeled the tariff increase as "unjust," "unsustainable," and lacking a legal basis, asserting that it violates the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard argued that imposing tariffs on a product where the US has a trade surplus with Mexico lacks justification. With Mexico expected to file for an official exemption from the higher tariffs on Friday, in a pivotal meeting with US officials, both Ebrard and President Sheinbaum have stated that Mexico will announce countermeasures against the US if no agreement is reached this week.USD/MXN bears remain in control below 19.20Price action on the USD/MXN daily chart continued to reinforce the broader bearish structure, as the pair posted another red candlestick, closing near the critical support zone between 19.15 and 19.20. This decline keeps the price firmly below both the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.28 and the 20-day SMA at 19.34. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 19.57, derived from the broader October–February rally, now acts as a key resistance level, further capping any recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 38 signals bearish momentum, although the indicator has yet to reach oversold conditions, suggesting potential for further downside.USD/MXN daily chartFrom here, the bearish scenario would involve a decisive break below the 19.15 support, potentially exposing the next downside target at the October low of 19.11. A failure to hold above this level could accelerate selling pressure. On the other hand, the bullish scenario would require a sustained recovery above 19.28 (10-day SMA) and 19.34 (20-day SMA), followed by a breakout above the 19.60 resistance, which aligns with the 23.6% retracement of the same October–February move.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
22:10 WTI Price Forecast: WTI Crude Oil holds gains above $62, momentum builds for further upside
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extends its recovery on Thursday, building on early week gains as bulls capitalize on a bullish flag breakout. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $62.80, up nearly 1.20% on the day, and slightly below the intraday high of $63.30.
WTI trades around $62.80 on Thursday, up 1.20% but below the session high of $63.30.Price action breaks out of bullish flag pattern, confirming short-term upside bias.Immediate resistance seen at $63.00–$63.50; sustained break could target $65.00 and $66.37 (100-day SMA).Support rests at $62.00; a break below may drag prices back to $60.00.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil extends its recovery on Thursday, building on early week gains as bulls capitalize on a bullish flag breakout. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $62.80, up nearly 1.20% on the day, and slightly below the intraday high of $63.30. The recent price action reflects a healthy consolidation phase following Monday’s sharp 3% rally, suggesting that the upward momentum remains intact as traders eye key resistance levels ahead.From a technical standpoint, the recent breakout from a bullish flag formation adds weight to the ongoing upside bias. This continuation setup emerged after Monday’s strong rally and was followed by a modest, downward-sloping pullback — a typical sign of profit-taking within an uptrend. The breakout has so far held above the $62.00 level, but bulls now face a near-term test at the $63.00–$63.50 resistance zone. This range, just shy of the week’s high, has acted as a short-term cap and needs to be cleared decisively to confirm bullish control and open the path toward the $65.00 psychological barrier, which has capped gains since mid-April. Furthermore, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.37 serves as the next major technical target.On the downside, if WTI fails to hold above $62.00, prices could fall back into the flag pattern, with key support near the $60.00 round figure at the lower end of the channel. A break below that would weaken the bullish outlook.Momentum indicators continue to support the upside setup. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gradually rising and currently stands at 54.49 — comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating bullish momentum without flashing overbought conditions. The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator also holds in positive territory, signaling persistent upward pressure. As long as the price holds above $62.00, the bullish breakout remains valid. However, a sustained drop below this threshold would raise the risk of a false breakout, with a potential slide back into the flag channel and the $60.00 area emerging as critical support at the lower end of the pattern.
22:01 Forex Today: Could Nonfarm Payroll figures save the US Dollar?
The Greenback bounced off its weekly lows of 98.35 as China’s media reported a call between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Both parties mentioned the call was good and focused on trade policies and rare earths.
The Greenback bounced off its weekly lows of 98.35 as China’s media reported a call between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Both parties mentioned the call was good and focused on trade policies and rare earths. Eyes shift to May’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures, expected to show a slowdown in the US labor market.Here's what to watch on Friday, June 6:The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained on the back foot throughout the Asian and European sessions. However, an improvement in risk appetite due to easing US-Sino tensions capped the DXY’s decline, and it now sits at around 98.75, virtually unchanged. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls numbers are expected to dip in May from 177K in April. Further data suggests that the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain unchanged compared to the previous month’s figures.EUR/USD was boosted and seems poised to end Thursday’s session above 1.1400 as the ECB cut rates and hinted that the easing cycle could be paused. The docket will feature Retail Sales and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the Eurozone (EU), followed by Germany’s Trade Balance and Industrial Production. Traders would also assess ECB’s President Lagarde’s speech.GBP/USD hit a new three-year high at 1.3616 on Thursday before retreating somewhat, boosted by the UK’s trade agreement with the US, which left steel and aluminum tariffs on UK products unchanged at 25%, as Trump doubled down duties to 50%, for the rest of the world. The schedule will feature Halifax House Prices, bill auctions, and BoE’s Chief Economist Pill speech.Although the USD/JPY resumed its uptrend above 143.50, the recovery appears compromised as the correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield remains tight. If traders reclaim 144.00, expect a leg-up. The Japanese docket will feature All Household Spending data, Foreign Reserves, and Leading Indicators.AUD/USD rallied and tested May’s monthly high of 0.6537 but the move was quickly rejected as traders brace for an absent economic docket on Friday. Market participants’ mood would be the primary driver for the major.Gold prices retreated as bulls took a breather, though uncertainty about US trade policies and heightened geopolitical tensions could drive XAU/USD prices higher. Bullion prices remain above $3,300, which is seen as a crucial support level for the last two weeks.
21:59 EUR/USD holds above 1.1440 as ECB cuts rates; focus shifts to US NFP data
EUR/USD holds onto earlier gains of over 0.20% after the European Central Bank (ECB) grabbed the headlines, reducing rates but leaving the door open for a pause at the upcoming July 24 meeting. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1441 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1404.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD trims intraday spike after Lagarde hints at nearing end of easing cycle.The ECB lowers rates to 2% as expected, but its statement suggests a cautious, data-dependent path ahead.Lagarde signals policy is “well-positioned” and hints a possible pause in July; market reacts with volatility.EUR/USD spikes to 1.1498 before easing; weak US jobless data keeps Fed rate cut hopes alive ahead of NFP.EUR/USD holds onto earlier gains of over 0.20% after the European Central Bank (ECB) grabbed the headlines, reducing rates but leaving the door open for a pause at the upcoming July 24 meeting. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1441 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1404.The ECB decided to reduce interest rates to 2%, as expected by market participants, although it has left the door open for a pause. The decision was not unanimous, with one dissenter, most likely Robert Holzmann, who, in the run-up to the meeting, favored a cut after the June or July meeting.In the statement, the ECB outlined its meeting-by-meeting path and updated its projections for growth and inflation. At ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, she said that monetary policy is “well-positioned” around the current uncertain outlook, adding that the central bank is close to ending the easing cycle.EUR/USD spiked sharply towards its daily high of 1.1498 before retreating somewhat to current exchange rate levels.Across the pond, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed signs of a cooling labor market, as jobless claims rose with more people filing for unemployment insurance. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit narrowed in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, as businesses eased front-loading of goods ahead of incoming tariffs.Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers grabbed the headlines, led by Governor Adriana Kugler and regional Fed Presidents Patrick Harker and Jeffrey Schmid. The Greenback trimmed some of its earlier losses, as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against six peers, is virtually unchanged at 98.75.EUR/USD traders’ eyes are on the US Nonfarm Payroll figures, which are expected to decrease from 177K to 130K in May. The Unemployment Rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Euro PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.82% -0.85% -0.16% -0.56% -1.16% -1.28% -0.34% EUR 0.82% -0.04% 0.67% 0.26% -0.35% -0.50% 0.47% GBP 0.85% 0.04% 0.74% 0.29% -0.30% -0.46% 0.52% JPY 0.16% -0.67% -0.74% -0.40% -1.00% -1.14% -0.27% CAD 0.56% -0.26% -0.29% 0.40% -0.58% -0.75% 0.22% AUD 1.16% 0.35% 0.30% 1.00% 0.58% -0.09% 0.90% NZD 1.28% 0.50% 0.46% 1.14% 0.75% 0.09% 0.98% CHF 0.34% -0.47% -0.52% 0.27% -0.22% -0.90% -0.98% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trims gains as Fed officials turned cautious ahead US jobs dataEUR/USD uptrend remains intact, but it would be premature to assume it will remain so, given the uncertainty on US and Eurozone economic data releases.Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 31 increased by 247K, above estimates of 235K and up from the previous week's 240K. The data reinforced by the ADP Employment Change report for May could be a prelude for a negative Nonfarm Payrolls report.The US Trade Balance revealed that the deficit narrowed sharply in May, contracting by 55.5% to $ 61.6 billion, the lowest since September 2023.Kugler said that monetary policy is well-positioned for any changes in the macroeconomic environment, adding that she’s already seeing the effects of higher tariffs and expects inflation to rise over 2025.Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker said that amid uncertainty, the Fed must wait and see on the next policy steps. He said that the Fed may face climbing inflation and unemployment at the same time. A slow disinflation justified the central bank’s holding steady rates.Kansas City Fed Jeffrey Schmid commented that he’s focused on maintaining the Fed’s credibility regarding inflation and expects tariffs to be reflected in prices in the upcoming months.ECB officials reportedly expect rate cuts to be paused at the July meeting, according to Bloomberg. “Some officials see reductions in borrowing costs as maybe already finished, while others still back another move — probably in September, according to the people.”Financial market players do not expect that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD reclaims 1.1400 but stalls below 1.1440EUR/USD uptrend remains intact, but buyers seem reluctant to push prices to achieve a daily close above 1.1450. Momentum seems to be fading as depicted by price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI’s slope is turning flat, an indication that bulls are taking a respite.For a bullish continuation, the EUR/USD pair must close above 1.1454 on a daily basis. If surpassed, the pair could challenge the current week’s peak of 1.1494, followed by 1.1500 and April highs near 1.1572, ahead of 1.16.Conversely, if EUR/USD falls below the June 2 daily low of 1.1344, a move to 1.13 is on the cards. A breach of the latter would expose the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1284, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1218 and 1.1200. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
20:55 Fed's Schmid: I expect tariffs to start to show through to prices in the coming months
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid took a slightly different approach to other Fed officials who also spoke on Thursday, but still remains focused on the overall difficulty of manipulating Fed policy rates in an uneasy post-tariff environment.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid took a slightly different approach to other Fed officials who also spoke on Thursday, but still remains focused on the overall difficulty of manipulating Fed policy rates in an uneasy post-tariff environment.Key highlightsI'm uncomfortable with look-through policy approach to tariff-driven price increase.
The extent of tariff-driven price push won't be fully apparent for some time.
I expect tariffs to start to show through to prices in the coming months.
I'm optimistic that economic activity can be sustained.
I am focused on maintaining the Fed's credibility on inflation.
Fed policy needs to be nimble to balance two sides of the mandate.
The extent of tariff-driven price push won't be fully apparent for some time.
I expect tariffs to start to show through to prices in the coming months.
I'm optimistic that economic activity can be sustained.
I am focused on maintaining the Fed's credibility on inflation.
Fed policy needs to be nimble to balance two sides of the mandate.
20:52 Fed's Harker: Amid uncertainty, the Fed must wait and see on next policy steps
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker added his own perspective to comments from other Fed officials earlier in the day, noting that whiplash trade policies from the Trump administration are making it difficult for Fed officials to move on policy rates.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker added his own perspective to comments from other Fed officials earlier in the day, noting that whiplash trade policies from the Trump administration are making it difficult for Fed officials to move on policy rates.Key highlightsAmid uncertainty, the Fed must wait and see on next policy steps.
There's still no idea how shifting economic policies will affect the economy.
Slow disinflation by itself justifies the Fed holding steady on interest rates.
It is entirely possible that the Fed may face rising inflation and unemployment at the same time.
Hard data have remained robust.
The US economy is resilient, but there are stresses in the foundation.
The economy faces many different possible paths.
Thus far, the job market has been mostly stable.
There's still no idea how shifting economic policies will affect the economy.
Slow disinflation by itself justifies the Fed holding steady on interest rates.
It is entirely possible that the Fed may face rising inflation and unemployment at the same time.
Hard data have remained robust.
The US economy is resilient, but there are stresses in the foundation.
The economy faces many different possible paths.
Thus far, the job market has been mostly stable.
20:49 Dow Jones Industrial Average remains in consolidation as markets look ahead to NFP jobs data
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held steady on Thursday, chugging quietly near the previous day’s closing bids.
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Investors are braced for this week’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs report, slated to release on Friday, and the Trump administration is hard at work barreling into trade talks with China and exchanging barbs over budget bills with billionaires.Jobs are the headline datapoint for investors this week. ADP job postings sank in May, causing investors to moderate their expectations for this week’s NFP official follow-up. May’s NFP jobs data report is expected to show a net gain of 130K employment positions over the reference period, down from the previous month’s 177K.Also in markets: Fed officials still concerned about tariff impacts on inflationPresident Trump’s former right-hand hatchet man, Elon Musk, has been lobbing potshots at Trump’s ‘big beautiful budget bill’ this week via social media. Posting to the social media platform that he owns, Musk has been openly deriding the Trump budget that he had a hand in creating.Musk is ostensibly incensed that the Trump budget codifies functionally none of the federal spending cuts that he swiftly executed without Congressional oversight at the beginning of Trump’s second term. The relationship between two of the most prominent people in the country is souring quickly as the two exchange barbs over social media platforms or through statements to media personnel. Shares of Tesla (TSLA) were down 8.5% at their lowest on Thursday, slipping below $305 per share after Elon Musk openly claimed that Donald Trump would have lost the federal election without his “involvement”. Earlier this week, Elon Musk also threatened to primary Congressional lawmakers who support the Trump administration’s deficit-heavy spending bill.The Trump team is racing toward trade talks with China following a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to statements by Donald Trump on Thursday, the two had a productive phone call, and tariff negotiations are expected to continue. However, Donald Trump himself and most of his retinue have a poor track record of maintaining their composure when dealing with Chinese trade officials. Trump and Xi exchanged barbs as recently as this week over trade, with both sides accusing each other of violating pre-deal trade terms agreed upon in Geneva, Switzerland, in early May. Read more stock news: Circle Internet Group stock spikes 235% on IPO debutDow Jones price forecastThe Dow Jones Industrial Average remains trapped in a consolidation zone. Investors are awaiting a fundamental shift in either direction, and a routine of nerve-fraying headlines on trade and tariffs has significantly widened the scope of intraday technical signals. The Dow Jones is pinned to the 42,500 region, with bullish price action firmly capped below the 43,000 handle. However, downside pressure remains firmly subdued, with bids strung along the north side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,600.Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
20:31 Gold slips as Trump-Xi call eases trade tensions, markets await US NFP
Gold price pared its earlier gains after breaking news revealed that the call between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, was positive, with the two primarily discussing trade, according to Trump. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,350, down 0.72%.
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At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,350, down 0.72%.In his social network, Trump revealed that the call was positive, adding, “There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products.” He said that US and Chinese teams would be meeting in a location to be determined. The news sent Bullion prices downward, as risk appetite improved even though US economic data disappointed investors and increased the chances for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year.The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that, indeed, the labor market is weakening as the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose. Other data showed the trade deficit narrowed in April, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, as the front-load of goods ahead of tariffs ebbed.The Greenback trimmed some of its earlier losses, as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s value against six peers, is virtually unchanged at 98.75.Gold’s faith will lie in Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures. If the data show that the labor market remains solid, the yellow metal could edge lower as the US Dollar rises. Otherwise, expect further upside in XAU/USD as investors would grow confident that the Fed could cut rates earlier than expected.Daily digest market movers: Gold sinks on market mood improvement, high US yieldsGold price dives as Wall Street registers modest gains at the time of writing. Also, a spike in US Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding metal, which is set to reverse Wednesday’s gains. Despite this, Gold, usually a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, is up around 29% this year.The US 10-year Treasury yield rises 4.5 basis points to 4.377%. US real yields have followed suit and are also up two basis points at 2.065%, a headwind for Bullion prices.Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 31 increased by 247K, above estimates of 235K and up from the previous week's 240K. The data reinforced the ADP Employment Change report for May, which could be a prelude for a negative Nonfarm Payrolls report.The US Trade Balance revealed that the deficit narrowed sharply in May, contracting by 55.5% to $-61.6 billion, the lowest since September 2023.According to Reuters, Metals Focus said, “Central banks worldwide are set to buy 1,000 metric tons of Gold in 2025, marking a fourth straight year of massive purchases as they shift reserves away from [US D]ollar assets.”Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 54.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bullish despite losing some ground below $3,360Gold remains upwardly biased, but the ongoing dip could send XAU/USD downward to test $3,300. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays buyers losing steam, it remains above the 50-neutral line. Unless sellers push the RSI below the latter, if XAU/USD remains above the June 3 low of $3,333 an upside move is on the cards.Therefore, Gold's next resistance is $3,350. A breach of the latter exposes $3,400, followed by the May 7 peak at $3,438. On further strength, the $3,450 figure and the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500 are up for grabs.On the other hand, if Gold falls below $3,300, sellers could send XAU/USD on a tailspin, testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,235, followed by the April 3 high, which has since turned into support at $3,167. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
20:19 USD/JPY recovers on de-escalating US-China trade tensions ahead of critical NFP report
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following news of a productive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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Trump’s Truth Social post, which revealed the de-escalation of US-China tensions, has provided relief for the Dollar, lifting USD/JPY.Friday’s focus shifts to key economic data from Japan and the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following news of a productive phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. After an approximate 90-minute discussion between the leaders of the two largest economies in the world, Trump reported that he had a “very good phone call with President Xi”.This de-escalation in geopolitical risk improved overall market sentiment and supported risk-on flows, leading to renewed USD appreciation against the safe-haven Yen. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading above the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing near-term support at 143.60.Japan Coincident Index figures and US NFPs employment data take the spotlight on FridayFor Japan, Friday’s focus turns to the release of the Preliminary Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index figures for April, scheduled at 05:00 GMT. Market expectations are for the Leading Economic Index to print at 104.1, with investors closely monitoring the data for any signals regarding Japan’s current economic performance and future growth outlook.A rise in Japan’s Leading Index may strengthen the Yen, while a fall could weaken it on concerns of slowing momentum.Meanwhile, Friday’s US economic agenda includes the release of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which offers insight into the health of the US labour market. Analysts expect the report to show that 130,000 new jobs were added in May, a slowdown from the 177,000 jobs added in April, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.2%. This release is particularly important as it directly influences Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations, which remain a key driver of USD/JPY price action.USD/JPY recovers above 143.00 with major resistance firming at 144.00In the short term, USD/JPY remains confined within a tight consolidation range between 142.71 and 143.71. The lower bound at 142.71 has provided consistent support throughout the week, limiting downside momentum, while the upper bound at 143.71 corresponds with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September–January rally, acting as firm resistance. This range has repeatedly served as both support and resistance in recent sessions, establishing it as a key technical zone for near-term directional bias. The 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently positioned near 143.60, reinforces the technical importance of the upper boundary, while the 144.00 psychological level looms just above. A decisive break above 143.71 would open the door for bullish momentum, potentially targeting the next resistance at 144.37 (the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the January-April decline). Conversely, a break below 142.71 would likely confirm a bearish continuation, exposing psychological support at 142.00 with the October low providing additional support at 141.65. USD/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
20:14 Australian Dollar climbs despite weak trade balance data, NFP in focus
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally against the US Dollar (USD) for a second day on Thursday, brushing aside weak domestic data as the Greenback loses ground following a string of disappointing US economic releases.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}AUD/USD rises for the second consecutive day, trading near 0.6514; up 1.20% this week.Australian trade surplus narrows, weaker exports partly offset by upbeat China PMI.US Initial Jobless Claims climb to 247K, DXY drops to 98.35 before recovering.Fed speeches due later Thursday; US NFP report on Friday to guide next moves.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally against the US Dollar (USD) for a second day on Thursday, brushing aside weak domestic data as the Greenback loses ground following a string of disappointing US economic releases.At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6514, near the previous week's high, and is up nearly 1.30% so far this week. The 0.6500 mark remains a key technical barrier that has capped upside attempts since mid-May. With the pair now holding slightly above this level, traders are watching closely for a potential breakout that could confirm a shift in short-term momentum.Data released earlier on Thursday showed that Australia's trade surplus in goods narrowed to AUD 5.41 billion in April 2025, down from AUD 6.89 billion in March and below market expectations of AUD 6.10 billion. The weaker print came as exports declined by 2.4%, while imports rose 1.1%, reflecting a slowdown in outbound shipments alongside steady demand for overseas goods. Still, the Aussie found some support from upbeat Chinese data, with the Caixin Services PMI rising to 51.1 in May from 50.7 the previous month. The stronger print helped alleviate concerns about slowing global growth and provided a modest boost to risk sentiment.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, weakened initially after soft economic data, with Initial Jobless Claims rising to 247,000, above the expected 235,000 and marking the highest reading since October. The DXY fell to 98.35 following the release but quickly reversed course, paring all losses to trade near 98.81 at the time of writing.Looking ahead, attention turns to speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Harker and Schmid later on Thursday, which may offer fresh clues on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be key for gauging the strength of the labor market and shaping expectations for future rate cuts. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.20% -0.21% 0.63% -0.09% -0.34% -0.17% 0.18% EUR 0.20% 0.04% 0.82% 0.15% -0.14% -0.03% 0.41% GBP 0.21% -0.04% 0.84% 0.10% -0.16% -0.07% 0.36% JPY -0.63% -0.82% -0.84% -0.71% -1.01% -0.88% -0.45% CAD 0.09% -0.15% -0.10% 0.71% -0.30% -0.17% 0.26% AUD 0.34% 0.14% 0.16% 1.01% 0.30% 0.09% 0.54% NZD 0.17% 0.03% 0.07% 0.88% 0.17% -0.09% 0.45% CHF -0.18% -0.41% -0.36% 0.45% -0.26% -0.54% -0.45% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally against the US Dollar (USD) for a second day on Thursday, brushing aside weak domestic data as the Greenback loses ground following a string of disappointing US economic releases.At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6514, near the previous week's high, and is up nearly 1.30% so far this week. The 0.6500 mark remains a key technical barrier that has capped upside attempts since mid-May. With the pair now holding slightly above this level, traders are watching closely for a potential breakout that could confirm a shift in short-term momentum.Data released earlier on Thursday showed that Australia's trade surplus in goods narrowed to AUD 5.41 billion in April 2025, down from AUD 6.89 billion in March and below market expectations of AUD 6.10 billion. The weaker print came as exports declined by 2.4%, while imports rose 1.1%, reflecting a slowdown in outbound shipments alongside steady demand for overseas goods. Still, the Aussie found some support from upbeat Chinese data, with the Caixin Services PMI rising to 51.1 in May from 50.7 the previous month. The stronger print helped alleviate concerns about slowing global growth and provided a modest boost to risk sentiment.Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, weakened initially after soft economic data, with Initial Jobless Claims rising to 247,000, above the expected 235,000 and marking the highest reading since October. The DXY fell to 98.35 following the release but quickly reversed course, paring all losses to trade near 98.81 at the time of writing.Looking ahead, attention turns to speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials Harker and Schmid later on Thursday, which may offer fresh clues on the policy outlook. Meanwhile, Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be key for gauging the strength of the labor market and shaping expectations for future rate cuts. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.20% -0.21% 0.63% -0.09% -0.34% -0.17% 0.18% EUR 0.20% 0.04% 0.82% 0.15% -0.14% -0.03% 0.41% GBP 0.21% -0.04% 0.84% 0.10% -0.16% -0.07% 0.36% JPY -0.63% -0.82% -0.84% -0.71% -1.01% -0.88% -0.45% CAD 0.09% -0.15% -0.10% 0.71% -0.30% -0.17% 0.26% AUD 0.34% 0.14% 0.16% 1.01% 0.30% 0.09% 0.54% NZD 0.17% 0.03% 0.07% 0.88% 0.17% -0.09% 0.45% CHF -0.18% -0.41% -0.36% 0.45% -0.26% -0.54% -0.45% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
19:39 BoC Deputy Governor Kozicki: Many businesses expect activity to weaken in the near term
Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki warned on Thursday that a growing number of Canadian businesses are bracing for a general slowdown in overall activity in the coming months, which could undercut job growth performance and put downward pressure on the Canadian economy.
Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki warned on Thursday that a growing number of Canadian businesses are bracing for a general slowdown in overall activity in the coming months, which could undercut job growth performance and put downward pressure on the Canadian economy.Key highlightsThe firms and associations were those particularly affected by trade tensions.
The latest consultations took place from mid-April to mid-May after an earlier round in January.
Some firms and industry associations consulted by BoC ahead of June 4th rates decision believe worst-case tariffs scenarios are much less likely to materialize.
Firms spoke about costs increasing, which likely means they will need to raise prices at some point.
While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.
Firms have now started seeing concrete impacts on their performance and are finding it challenging to formulate outlooks.
Many businesses expect activity to weaken in the near term, which puts jobs at risk.
BoC's GC considered this information with other data and analysis in deciding to keep policy rate unchanged.
The BoC is relying more on non-traditional data and surveys as well as outreach to get a better understanding of how the economy is performing.
The latest consultations took place from mid-April to mid-May after an earlier round in January.
Some firms and industry associations consulted by BoC ahead of June 4th rates decision believe worst-case tariffs scenarios are much less likely to materialize.
Firms spoke about costs increasing, which likely means they will need to raise prices at some point.
While uncertainty remains high, there was less talk of catastrophic outcomes.
Firms have now started seeing concrete impacts on their performance and are finding it challenging to formulate outlooks.
Many businesses expect activity to weaken in the near term, which puts jobs at risk.
BoC's GC considered this information with other data and analysis in deciding to keep policy rate unchanged.
The BoC is relying more on non-traditional data and surveys as well as outreach to get a better understanding of how the economy is performing.
19:35 Fed's Kugler: I see greater upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governor member Adrianna Kugler noted on Thursday that although growth remains firm (albeit subdued) and Fed policy appears to be holding at a moderate level, key risks are growing, specifically in regards to inflation and a growing bubble of layoff intentions from bus
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governor member Adrianna Kugler noted on Thursday that although growth remains firm (albeit subdued) and Fed policy appears to be holding at a moderate level, key risks are growing, specifically in regards to inflation and a growing bubble of layoff intentions from businesses and firms.Key highlightsI see greater upside risks to inflation and potential downside risks to employment and output growth.
Labor market appears resilient and stable.
Economic activity continues to grow but at a more moderate pace than second half of 2024.
Trade and other policy changes may raise jobless rate, push employment away from Fed's objective.
Front-loading of imports makes judging current strength of economy difficult.
April spending and income data point to slight moderation in activity.
Notices of layoffs have ticked up since start of year, as have layoff mentions in Beige Book.
View current Fed policy as moderately restrictive.
Core services inflation still above pre-pandemic rate. Progress on core goods inflation has reversed.
Expects reversal of imports surge in coming months to signal larger price increases.
I still see stability in measures of longer-run inflation expectations.
Nontraditional indicators suggest the economy might be starting to slow.
Nontraditional data are consistent with my assessment we might be seeing some moderation in growth but not yet a significant slowdown.
Inflation is a bigger risk right now than weaker employment.
We haven't seen the full extent of impact of tariffs on prices.
Inflation will be the first-order effect, other effects will be down the road.
Pandemic inflation experience is still affecting expectations.
Labor market appears resilient and stable.
Economic activity continues to grow but at a more moderate pace than second half of 2024.
Trade and other policy changes may raise jobless rate, push employment away from Fed's objective.
Front-loading of imports makes judging current strength of economy difficult.
April spending and income data point to slight moderation in activity.
Notices of layoffs have ticked up since start of year, as have layoff mentions in Beige Book.
View current Fed policy as moderately restrictive.
Core services inflation still above pre-pandemic rate. Progress on core goods inflation has reversed.
Expects reversal of imports surge in coming months to signal larger price increases.
I still see stability in measures of longer-run inflation expectations.
Nontraditional indicators suggest the economy might be starting to slow.
Nontraditional data are consistent with my assessment we might be seeing some moderation in growth but not yet a significant slowdown.
Inflation is a bigger risk right now than weaker employment.
We haven't seen the full extent of impact of tariffs on prices.
Inflation will be the first-order effect, other effects will be down the road.
Pandemic inflation experience is still affecting expectations.
18:35 Silver prices surge to multi-year highs, posting intraday gains near 3.50%
Silver (XAG/USD) surged sharply on Thursday, rallying nearly 4% intraday and reaching their highest level in more than a decade, as precious metals continue to attract investors amid escalating trade tensions and increased US Dollar outflows.
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A weakening US Dollar (USD) has made Silver more attractive for buyers, while intensifying trade tensions, rising tariffs, and broader economic uncertainty have reinforced the metal’s appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset. After rising above $36, a level not seen since February 2012, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) surpassed 69. Although this is indicative of strong bullish momentum, it also serves as a potential warning that prices are nearing overbought territory.Interest rate expectations provide an additional tailwind for Silver While the economic outlook remains uncertain, central banks are moving away from the restrictive monetary policies, which have caused interest rates to decrease throughout the year.This has provided an additional boost for Silver prices, which do not yield any returns from holding the metal.With the ECB announcing a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut on Thursday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing pressure to lower rates in response to softening economic data, particularly in the US labour market.On Thursday, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 247,000 for the week, which was higher than last Thursday’s 240,000 print and above analyst expectations of a 235,000 increase. As investors look ahead to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure, which will provide additional insight into the resiliency of the US labour market, these releases are crucial in shaping interest rate expectations for the Fed. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
18:32 United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.215% to 4.17%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 4.215% to 4.17%
18:13 US Pres. Trump: Concluded a very good phone call with President Xi of China
United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday that he had a "very good phone call" with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which they discussed the intricacies of the trade deal.
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United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Truth Social on Thursday that he had a "very good phone call" with Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which they discussed the intricacies of the trade deal."The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both countries," Trump added. "There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of rare earth products."Trump also noted that his representatives, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will soon meet the Chinese team for the next round of talks at a yet-to-be determined date and location.Market reactionThe US Dollar Index recovers from session lows following this headline and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day at 98.65. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite cling to modest daily gains, rising 0.25% and 0.5%, respectively. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
18:06 USD/CAD slips below 1.3650 as US jobless claims rise, Canada’s PMI contract
USD/CAD extended its losses on Thursday amid a busy schedule on both sides of the border, with US unemployment benefits data coming in above forecasts. At the same time, Canada’s Ivey PMI shows that business activity contracted for the second straight month.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Canadian Dollar boosted by Greenback’s weakness as US jobless claims jump to 247KCanada’s Ivey PMI contracts for second month, but trade deficit widens sharply on plunging exports.Market focus shifts to NFP and Canadian jobs data; US expected to add 130K, Canada seen losing 12.5K jobs.USD/CAD extended its losses on Thursday amid a busy schedule on both sides of the border, with US unemployment benefits data coming in above forecasts. At the same time, Canada’s Ivey PMI shows that business activity contracted for the second straight month. At the time of writing, the pair is down 0.22% at 1.3646.Loonie edges higher despite weak domestic data, as traders await Friday’s US and Canadian labor market reportsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) rose to 247K exceeding the previous week reading of 240K, up from forecasts of 235K. The data followed a dismal ADP Employment Change report that showed that companies added just 37K people to the workforce in May, revealed on Wednesday.At the same time, the US trade deficit narrowed in April, according to the US Department of Commerce.In Canada, May’s Ivey PMI shrank for the second straight month, though improved from 47.9 to 48.9. Earlier, Statistics Canada revealed that the Trade Balance deficit widened from -0.51 billion to -7.14 billion, as exports plunged 10.8% in April its lowest level since June 2023.Traders’ investors turn to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls figures and Canada’s Employment Change. The former is expected to show the economy added 130K jobs in May. Canada’s economy is projected to shed 12.5K jobs from the workforce.USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CAD has fallen to yearly lows of 1.3633 amid uncertainties regarding the US trade policies. Although recent news emerged that Trump and Xi’s call was a positive and improved mood, investors are augmenting their Canadian dollar long positions.Technically speaking, the pair is forming a bullish wedge, which suggests the USD/CAD could be poised for a breakout above the May 29 high of 1.3861. If surpassed, the pair could challenge 1.40.Conversely, a daily close below 1.36 sets the stage for a downward move to the October 24, 2024, low of 1.3471. Canadian Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.93% -0.95% -0.24% -0.64% -1.37% -1.53% -0.41% EUR 0.93% -0.03% 0.69% 0.28% -0.44% -0.64% 0.52% GBP 0.95% 0.03% 0.76% 0.31% -0.41% -0.60% 0.55% JPY 0.24% -0.69% -0.76% -0.41% -1.12% -1.31% -0.25% CAD 0.64% -0.28% -0.31% 0.41% -0.71% -0.92% 0.24% AUD 1.37% 0.44% 0.41% 1.12% 0.71% -0.14% 1.04% NZD 1.53% 0.64% 0.60% 1.31% 0.92% 0.14% 1.16% CHF 0.41% -0.52% -0.55% 0.25% -0.24% -1.04% -1.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (111B) in May 30: Actual (122B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (111B) in May 30: Actual (122B)
17:15 EUR/USD climbs to six-week high as ECB cuts interest rates, US Jobless Claims disappoint
The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following choppy price action, as traders react to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) widely expected interest rate cut and disappointing US Initial Jobless Claims, which weigh on the Greenback.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}EUR/USD extends its gains, reaching its highest level since April 22 on Thursday.The ECB cuts its key interest rate by 25 bps, signaling a data-dependent approach moving forward.US Initial Jobless Claims rise to 247,000, adding pressure on the US Dollar ahead of the May NFP report due on Friday.The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following choppy price action, as traders react to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) widely expected interest rate cut and disappointing US Initial Jobless Claims, which weigh on the Greenback.At the time of writing, EUR/USD extends gains, trading around 1.1480 during the American session — a level last seen on April 22. The Euro’s upward momentum comes as the US Dollar softens across the board, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six different currencies, edging lower toward 98.50. The US Dollar remains under pressure after US Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected in the week ending May 31, reinforcing dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and further tilting the short-term bias in favor of the Euro.The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut its interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, lowering the Rate On Deposit Facility to 2.00% and the Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2.15%. This marks the seventh consecutive cut – the eighth since the central bank started the current easing cycle in June last year – aimed at supporting the Euro area economy amid easing inflation and global trade uncertainties.The ECB's updated projections indicate that headline inflation is expected to average 2.0% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth anticipated at 0.9% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to future monetary policy decisions, refraining from pre-committing to a specific rate path.In the US, Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly rose to 247,000 in the week ending May 31, up from 240,000 the previous week and defying forecasts for a drop to 235,000. The unexpected rise points to emerging softness in the labor market and added pressure on the US Dollar, as traders look ahead to the highly anticipated May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday for further monetary policy clues by the Fed. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.49% -0.31% 0.30% -0.19% -0.45% -0.46% -0.10% EUR 0.49% 0.23% 0.79% 0.33% 0.05% -0.04% 0.41% GBP 0.31% -0.23% 0.60% 0.09% -0.16% -0.27% 0.18% JPY -0.30% -0.79% -0.60% -0.50% -0.78% -0.84% -0.38% CAD 0.19% -0.33% -0.09% 0.50% -0.30% -0.38% 0.09% AUD 0.45% -0.05% 0.16% 0.78% 0.30% -0.11% 0.36% NZD 0.46% 0.04% 0.27% 0.84% 0.38% 0.11% 0.47% CHF 0.10% -0.41% -0.18% 0.38% -0.09% -0.36% -0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
17:02 GBP/USD advances to multi-year highs above 1.3600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD gained traction in the American session on Thursday and climbed to its highest level since February 2022 above 1.3600. At the time of press, the pair was up 0.4% on the day at 1.3605.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
17:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 48.9, above expectations (48.3) in May
Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 48.9, above expectations (48.3) in May
16:23 Lagarde speech: Facing significant uncertainty
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Key quotes"We have not discussed neutral rate.""Neutral is predicated on absence of shock.""Facing significant uncertainty.""Had extensive discussions on impact of disruption of supply chains.""Getting to the end of the monetary policy cycle." Interest rates FAQs What are interest rates? Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%.
If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
16:13 Lagarde speech: We are in a good place after 25 bps rate cut today
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Key quotes"We are in a good place after 25 bps rate cut today.""Decision was almost unanimous, there was one dissenter.""Risks to growth are to the downside.""Outlook for inflation more uncertain than usual.""Fragmentation of global supply chains could raise inflation.""While Euro area banks remain resilient, broader financial stability risks remain elevated." Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
16:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $678.5B to $678.7B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $678.5B to $678.7B
15:58 Lagarde speech: Survey data point to some weaker prospects in near term
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.
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Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to lower key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.Key quotes"Survey data point to some weaker prospects in near term.""Serivces sector is slowing.""Higher tariffs, stronger Euro to make exports harder.""Defence, infrastructure investment to bolster growth.""Most core inflation figures suggest inflation will stabilize at target.""Labour costs are gradually moderating." ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
15:55 US President Trump and Chinese President Xi hold phone call – Xinhua
According to Xinhua news agency, United States (USD) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call on Trump's request to engage in discussions and reflect ongoing diplomatic communication amidst tensions.
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According to Xinhua news agency, United States (USD) President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a phone call on Trump's request to engage in discussions and reflect ongoing diplomatic communication amidst tensions.Market reactionThe US Dollar (USD) Index edged higher with the immediate reaction to this headline and was last seen trading flat on the day at 98.80.Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade little changed. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
15:37 US weekly Initial Jobless Claims rise to 247K vs. 235K expected
There were 247,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending May 31, according to data published Thursday by the United States (US) Department of Labor (DOL). This figure followed the previous week's print of 239,000 (revised from 240,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 235,000.
Initial Jobless Claims in the US rose by 8,000 in the week ending May 31.The US Dollar Index declines toward 98.50 after the data.There were 247,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending May 31, according to data published Thursday by the United States (US) Department of Labor (DOL). This figure followed the previous week's print of 239,000 (revised from 240,000) and came in worse than the market expectation of 235,000.Further details of the publication revealed that the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2%."The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 24 was 1,904,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level," the DOL noted in its press release.Market reactionThe US Dollar stays under bearish pressure after this data. At the time of press, the USD Index was down 0.2% on the day at 98.62.
15:31 United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 6.6%, above expectations (5.7%) in 1Q
United States Unit Labor Costs came in at 6.6%, above expectations (5.7%) in 1Q
15:31 United States Goods Trade Balance climbed from previous $-87.62B to $-87.4B in April
United States Goods Trade Balance climbed from previous $-87.62B to $-87.4B in April
15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.904M below forecasts (1.91M) in May 23
United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.904M below forecasts (1.91M) in May 23
15:30 Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $-7.14B, below expectations ($-1.5B) in April
Canada International Merchandise Trade came in at $-7.14B, below expectations ($-1.5B) in April
15:30 Canada Exports down to $60.44B in April from previous $69.9B
Canada Exports down to $60.44B in April from previous $69.9B
15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average up to 235K in May 30 from previous 230.75K
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average up to 235K in May 30 from previous 230.75K
15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K, above expectations (235K) in May 30
United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 247K, above expectations (235K) in May 30
15:30 Canada Imports down to $67.58B in April from previous $70.4B
Canada Imports down to $67.58B in April from previous $70.4B
15:30 United States Goods and Services Trade Balance above forecasts ($-94B) in April: Actual ($-61.6B)
United States Goods and Services Trade Balance above forecasts ($-94B) in April: Actual ($-61.6B)
15:28 USD/INR pulls back from 86.00 as the US Dollar softens, RBI rate decision in focus
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, ending a two-day losing streak as the Greenback softened following Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected US economic data.
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The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, ending a two-day losing streak as the Greenback softened following Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected US economic data. At the time of writing, USD/INR is trading near 85.80, down from the intraday high of 86.05, and remains confined within Wednesday’s range. The modest Rupee gains are supported by a pullback in the US Dollar and stable Crude Oil prices.On the equity front, Indian stocks posted mild gains, further boosting sentiment. The BSE Sensex rallied 444 points to close at 81,442, while the NSE Nifty advanced 131 points to finish at 24,751. The risk-on tone in equities lent additional support to the Rupee, easing concerns over capital outflows and reinforcing expectations of continued foreign inflows.All eyes are now on the RBI’s monetary policy announcement, scheduled for Friday. Markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut — the third consecutive reduction — amid easing inflation and the central bank’s push to support growth momentum. The outcome could play a key role in shaping the near-term direction for the INR.Market movers: Weak US data, RBI policy, and upcoming jobs numbers in the spotlight
The US economy showed signs of cooling in May. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April, falling short of the 52.0 market forecast and marking the first contraction in the services sector since 2024. The ADP Employment Change showed US private sector payrolls rose by just 37,000, well below expectations of 115,000, and sharply lower than April’s revised 60,000.US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, urging immediate rate cuts in response to the disappointing ADP report. “ADP number out. ‘Too Late’ Powell must now lower the rate. He is unbelievable. Europe has lowered NINE times,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.Following Wednesday’s data, markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2025, with the first move likely in October. According to LSEG data, traders have priced in 56 basis points of total cuts this year. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 75% probability of a rate cut in September.The HSBC India Composite PMI declined to 59.3 in May from the flash estimate of 61.2, though it remained slightly above April’s 59.7. The drop was mainly attributed to softer factory output. Meanwhile, the Services PMI was revised down to 58.8 from 61.2 but still edged higher than April’s 58.7, marking the fastest pace of expansion since February, supported by a continued rise in output and new orders.Oil prices steady on Thursday following a sharp midweek sell-off. Lower energy costs are typically favorable for the Indian Rupee, helping ease trade deficit concerns and import-driven inflation.Traders now turn their focus to upcoming US data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims due later Thursday, with consensus expectations at 235,000, slightly below the previous week's 240,000. The spotlight then shifts to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could provide the next major cue for Fed policy expectations and the direction of the USD.Technical analysis: USD/INR trapped in a narrow rangeThe USD/INR pair remains stuck in a tight range, with price action consolidating between key support at 85.00 and resistance near the 86.00 handle. Thursday’s pullback from the intraday high of 86.05 highlights the pair’s failure to sustain upside momentum, keeping it pinned below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 86.10.Momentum indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 mark at 55.12, indicating modest bullish strength without signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, with a fresh bullish crossover suggesting buying interest could return if the pair clears 86.10 decisively. Until then, USD/INR is likely to stay rangebound, with traders eyeing upcoming US data and the RBI decision for breakout cues. RBI FAQs What is the role of the Reserve Bank of India? The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India affect the Rupee? The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR. Does the Reserve Bank of India directly intervene in FX markets? Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, ending a two-day losing streak as the Greenback softened following Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected US economic data. At the time of writing, USD/INR is trading near 85.80, down from the intraday high of 86.05, and remains confined within Wednesday’s range. The modest Rupee gains are supported by a pullback in the US Dollar and stable Crude Oil prices.On the equity front, Indian stocks posted mild gains, further boosting sentiment. The BSE Sensex rallied 444 points to close at 81,442, while the NSE Nifty advanced 131 points to finish at 24,751. The risk-on tone in equities lent additional support to the Rupee, easing concerns over capital outflows and reinforcing expectations of continued foreign inflows.All eyes are now on the RBI’s monetary policy announcement, scheduled for Friday. Markets widely anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut — the third consecutive reduction — amid easing inflation and the central bank’s push to support growth momentum. The outcome could play a key role in shaping the near-term direction for the INR.Market movers: Weak US data, RBI policy, and upcoming jobs numbers in the spotlight
The US economy showed signs of cooling in May. The ISM Services PMI dropped to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April, falling short of the 52.0 market forecast and marking the first contraction in the services sector since 2024. The ADP Employment Change showed US private sector payrolls rose by just 37,000, well below expectations of 115,000, and sharply lower than April’s revised 60,000.US President Donald Trump renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, urging immediate rate cuts in response to the disappointing ADP report. “ADP number out. ‘Too Late’ Powell must now lower the rate. He is unbelievable. Europe has lowered NINE times,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.Following Wednesday’s data, markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2025, with the first move likely in October. According to LSEG data, traders have priced in 56 basis points of total cuts this year. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 75% probability of a rate cut in September.The HSBC India Composite PMI declined to 59.3 in May from the flash estimate of 61.2, though it remained slightly above April’s 59.7. The drop was mainly attributed to softer factory output. Meanwhile, the Services PMI was revised down to 58.8 from 61.2 but still edged higher than April’s 58.7, marking the fastest pace of expansion since February, supported by a continued rise in output and new orders.Oil prices steady on Thursday following a sharp midweek sell-off. Lower energy costs are typically favorable for the Indian Rupee, helping ease trade deficit concerns and import-driven inflation.Traders now turn their focus to upcoming US data, including weekly Initial Jobless Claims due later Thursday, with consensus expectations at 235,000, slightly below the previous week's 240,000. The spotlight then shifts to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could provide the next major cue for Fed policy expectations and the direction of the USD.Technical analysis: USD/INR trapped in a narrow rangeThe USD/INR pair remains stuck in a tight range, with price action consolidating between key support at 85.00 and resistance near the 86.00 handle. Thursday’s pullback from the intraday high of 86.05 highlights the pair’s failure to sustain upside momentum, keeping it pinned below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 86.10.Momentum indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the 50 mark at 55.12, indicating modest bullish strength without signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, with a fresh bullish crossover suggesting buying interest could return if the pair clears 86.10 decisively. Until then, USD/INR is likely to stay rangebound, with traders eyeing upcoming US data and the RBI decision for breakout cues. RBI FAQs What is the role of the Reserve Bank of India? The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is "..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India affect the Rupee? The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR. Does the Reserve Bank of India directly intervene in FX markets? Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
15:22 Gold extends gains ahead of ECB rate decision, US Jobless Claims, and trade talks
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its upward move during the European session on Thursday, with markets focusing on the European Central Bank (ECB) decision, US employment data, and developments surrounding trade talks ahead of US President Donald Trump’s meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz.
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The precious metal is trading near $3,400 at the time of writing. A break of this critical psychological resistance level could open the door for a potential retest of April’s all-time high at $3,500.ECB prepares for a 25 bps interest rate cutThe European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, while the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims figures will provide additional insight into the health of the labor market ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.Later in the day, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz will be meeting US President Donald Trump at the White House to discuss current geopolitical issues.Gold daily digest: ECB rate decision, trade talks, and US employment data aheadWeekly US Initial Jobless Claims are expected to fall to 235K, from 240K reported last Thursday. A reading above analysts' forecasts could highlight further softening in the health of the US labour market.Friday’s NFP figures are expected to show that 130,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in May, down from 177,000 in April.Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 4.2% in May, reflecting a resilient US labour market.The weak ADP employment data released on Wednesday showed that just 37K jobs were added to the US private sector in May.Market sentiment remains cautious due to a series of developments, including the US tariff increase on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, which took effect on Wednesday. The growing tariff threats and escalating trade tensions have posed a significant risk to risk assets, while a weaker US Dollar has been supportive of Gold prices.On Thursday, Reuters reported that Canadian Prime Minister called US tariffs “illegal” while Mexico and the European Union expressed similar frustration.On Wednesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called the new tariffs "unjust, unsustainable, and without legal grounds," warning that if a deal is not reached, Mexico will be forced to respond with retaliatory measures.Canada and the EU have also threatened to retaliate if no progress is made in trade talks this week.Gold technical analysis: Bulls drive prices to psychological resistance at $3,400Gold (XAU/USD) is exhibiting signs of renewed bullish momentum after breaking out of a well-defined symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The breakout above the upper trendline and the key horizontal resistance at $3,392 suggests growing bullish sentiment, reinforced by a rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 59.The sustained close above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,298 could pave the way for a move toward the psychological resistance at $3,500, marking a retest of the prior swing high. However, a move below the $3,350 psychological level and below the 20-day SMA could initiate bearish momentum toward the $3,291, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April rally. A daily close below this zone would expose the lower boundary of the triangle near $3,240, and potentially trigger a deeper correction toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,057. Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)
Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)
15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.15%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets expectations (2.15%)
15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a increased to 46.7 in May from previous 45.3
Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a increased to 46.7 in May from previous 45.3
15:01 Mexico Consumer Confidence up to 46.5 in May from previous 45.5
Mexico Consumer Confidence up to 46.5 in May from previous 45.5
14:45 USD/CAD dips to test YTD lows at 1.3650 amid generalised Dollar weakness
The US Dollar’s recovery has been short-lived.
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A combination of downbeat US macroeconomic data, investors’ frustration amid a lack of progress on US trade negotiations, the uncertain tariffs scenario, and rising concerns about US debt keeps feeding a “sell America” trade that has hammered the Dollar over the last two months.Weak US data boosts hopes of Fed easingUS data released on Wednesday revealed an unexpected contraction of the services sector’s activity, and ADP figures showed that private payrolls grew well below expectations in May. These releases challenge the optimistic forecasts for Friday’s Nonfarm payrolls and have revived fears of an upcoming economic recession.
US President Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates immediately following Wednesday’s figures. This is the last in a series of attacks by the republican leader, which questions the Fed's independence and boosts speculation about a rate cut. In both cases, bad news for the USD.
The CME Fed Watch tool shows a 57% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, up from 32% a month ago.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 2.75%, as widely expected, and warned about tariff uncertainty. Governor Macklem, however,¡ highlighted the positive economic developments and curbed hopes of further rate cuts in the near-term. All in all, a “hawkish hold” that kept the Canadian Dollar’s downside attempts limited. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
A combination of downbeat US macroeconomic data, investors’ frustration amid a lack of progress on US trade negotiations, the uncertain tariffs scenario, and rising concerns about US debt keeps feeding a “sell America” trade that has hammered the Dollar over the last two months.Weak US data boosts hopes of Fed easingUS data released on Wednesday revealed an unexpected contraction of the services sector’s activity, and ADP figures showed that private payrolls grew well below expectations in May. These releases challenge the optimistic forecasts for Friday’s Nonfarm payrolls and have revived fears of an upcoming economic recession.
US President Trump urged Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates immediately following Wednesday’s figures. This is the last in a series of attacks by the republican leader, which questions the Fed's independence and boosts speculation about a rate cut. In both cases, bad news for the USD.
The CME Fed Watch tool shows a 57% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, up from 32% a month ago.
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold at 2.75%, as widely expected, and warned about tariff uncertainty. Governor Macklem, however,¡ highlighted the positive economic developments and curbed hopes of further rate cuts in the near-term. All in all, a “hawkish hold” that kept the Canadian Dollar’s downside attempts limited. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
14:35 JPY is soft and fading from range high – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies as it fades a portion of Wednesday’s push toward the upper end of its local range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft, down 0.3% against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies as it fades a portion of Wednesday’s push toward the upper end of its local range, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets eye softer data in context of fluid BoJ outlook"The release of disappointing labor cash earnings data appears to be weighing on the currency as market participants consider its implications for broader inflationary pressures and the BoJ’s response." "The outlook for BoJ policy has been in flux in recent weeks, as bond turmoil called into question the possibility of a change in the overall tightening stance. Official communication has since affirmed policymakers’ resolve to continue tightening, however subsequent media reporting have suggested otherwise." "Ultimately, JPY remains well supported by narrowing spreads as JGB yields have failed to keep pace with the decline in US Treasury yields."
14:33 GBP is extending recent gains – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD), outperforming most of the G10 currencies as it pushes toward last week’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD), outperforming most of the G10 currencies as it pushes toward last week’s multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP is threatening fresh multi-year highs"Domestic releases have been of secondary importance, with a modest (but still contractionary) surprise in the construction PMI and slightly softer inflation expectations figures. UK-US spreads have widened modestly since mid-May, offering the pound critical fundamental support." "Commentary from the BoE has leaned toward a cautiously neutral stance, with policymakers leaning toward leaving rates unchanged – for now – while signaling a willingness to provide additional easing if needed. The BoE’s next meeting is on June 19 and markets are pricing a hold." "Expectations for medium-term easing are also fading, and markets have pared back nearly 20bpts of easing by December and are now only expecting 43bpts into year-end."
14:31 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Sets to rally towards 0.6100
The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh seven-month high near 0.6055 on Thursday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms across the board despite growing uncertainty over trade relations between the United States (US) and China.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD refreshes seven-month high near 0.6055 as the NZ Dollar outperforms across the board.The NZD gains despite growing US-China trade worries.Disappointing US economic data weighs on US Treasury yields and the US Dollar.The NZD/USD pair posts a fresh seven-month high near 0.6055 on Thursday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperforms across the board despite growing uncertainty over trade relations between the United States (US) and China. New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% -0.11% 0.32% -0.11% -0.25% -0.21% 0.15% EUR 0.00% -0.05% 0.33% -0.08% -0.23% -0.28% 0.19% GBP 0.11% 0.05% 0.41% -0.03% -0.16% -0.23% 0.23% JPY -0.32% -0.33% -0.41% -0.44% -0.62% -0.63% -0.16% CAD 0.11% 0.08% 0.03% 0.44% -0.17% -0.19% 0.27% AUD 0.25% 0.23% 0.16% 0.62% 0.17% -0.07% 0.41% NZD 0.21% 0.28% 0.23% 0.63% 0.19% 0.07% 0.48% CHF -0.15% -0.19% -0.23% 0.16% -0.27% -0.41% -0.48% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump expressed difficulties in trade negotiations with Chinese leader XI Jinping. "I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!" Trump wrote in a post on Truth.Social.Technically, the Kiwi Dollar underperforms when investors express concerns over China’s trade outlook, given that the New Zealand (NZ) economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing.Meanwhile, lower Treasury yields due to poor US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for May have weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD). At the time of writing, 10-year US bond yields extend its Wednesday’s downside move to near 4.33%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles to hold the six-week low of 98.60.Soft US data has slightly prompted market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower interest rates in the July policy meeting.NZD/USD is almost set to break the Bullish Flag formation on the upside. Historically, the asset resumes its strong rally after a breakout of the consolidation seen in the chart pattern, which is in the range of 0.5846-0.6024. The near-term trend of the pair is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 0.5925.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. Bulls would come into action if the RSI holds above the 60.00 level.The Kiwi pair is expected to rise towards the September 11 low of 0.6100 and the October 9 high of 0.6145 after staying above the key level of 0.6050.In an alternate scenario, a downside move below the May 12 low of 0.5846 will expose it to the round-level support of 0.5800, followed by the April 10 high of 0.5767.NZD/USD daily chart
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
14:31 CAD holds near yesterday’s high on soft USD, unfazed by BoC – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady, holding near yesterday’s high against the US Dollar (USD). The BoC’s 'dovish hold' outcome yesterday was largely as expected, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is steady, holding near yesterday’s high against the US Dollar (USD). The BoC’s 'dovish hold' outcome yesterday was largely as expected, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Trend signals are aligned bearishly"Policymakers noted uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on Canada’s economy as grounds for caution at the moment. Canada has not responded to the latest ratcheting up of trade headwinds from the doubling in steel and aluminium tariffs. PM Carney said the US and Canada are in 'intensive' negotiations but will retaliate if talks fail. None of that appears to be bothering the CAD as it takes advantage of the weak USD. Spot continues to trade well below our estimated fair value (1.3733)." "New cycle lows for spot yesterday continues to reverse the late 2024/early 2025 surge in the USD. USD/CAD has closed lower for four consecutive months (since the early February jump to 1.48) and might stretch that to five net monthly USD losses through June. That would be a pretty rare run for the CAD. The last time that happened was 2020 when spot was reversing from the COVID jump to 1.47. That move extended to 1.20 the following year." "We’ve noted previously that USD's slide under the mid-1.37 area opened the door for a push to the 1.34 area (full retracement of that USD run higher over the turn of the year). We had overlooked weekly trend support at 1.3645 but it’s not clear that this can offer a sustainable foothold for the USD. Trend signals are aligned bearishly across the intraday daily and weekly charts which suggest more losses for the USD ahead and a likely drop to that 1.34 area in the next few weeks."
14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts: 93.816K (May) vs previous 105.441K
United States Challenger Job Cuts: 93.816K (May) vs previous 105.441K
14:28 EUR quietly consolidating on mixed data ahead of ECB – Scotiabank
EUR is quietly consolidating in a tight range just above 1.14, entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged from Wednesday’s close, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
EUR is quietly consolidating in a tight range just above 1.14, entering Thursday’s NA session unchanged from Wednesday’s close, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. The multi-month trend is bullish "The release calendar has so far been limited to slightly softer euro area PPI data and unexpectedly strong Germany factory orders data. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the ECB’s policy decision and the release of the latest economic projections." "A 25bpt cut has been widely anticipated and fully priced, but markets have been shifting their expectations for further easing as some policymakers have spoken to the possibility of today’s cut marking the end of the latest easing cycle. A repeat of Wednesday’s BoC could deliver material EUR strength.""The multi-month trend is bullish with a clear sequence of higher lows and higher highs since early February. The RSI is bullish but only modestly so, leaving ample room for further gains. Recent support has been observed at the 50 day MA (1.1247) and the latest resistance has been observed in the mid-1.14s. A break of the local high would shift the focus to the April 21 high in the upper 1.15s."
14:24 USD little changed as markets await NFP data – Scotiabank
Markets are trading in relatively subdued fashion, leaving the USD soft overall but little changed on the session and holding near the past week’s low, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Markets are trading in relatively subdued fashion, leaving the USD soft overall but little changed on the session and holding near the past week’s low, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD soft but little changed"High beta FX is leading limited gains on the USD in the major currency space. Stocks are modestly higher in Europe after a mixed session in Asia. US equity futures are little changed. Bonds are mostly firmer but Treasurys are underperforming a little. Markets are short on incentives to move today—an ECB rate cut is largely discounted and US data reports this morning take a bit of a back seat ahead of Friday’s jobs report. Yesterday’s round of US data provided some further evidence that tariff uncertainty was starting to bite." " ISM Service sector activity contracted in May, in contrast to expectations for a pick up in growth. Prices rose and new orders dropped. The ADP data delivered another downbeat report, with private sector hiring of just 37k in May (against forecasts of a 114k gain). ADP tracking with NFP data has been weak but the broader trend in the two data series is similar. Soft ADP data do suggest some risk of the headline NFP report weakening in the near future at least. Market expectation appear to be adjusting in anticipation of a soft NFP report Friday but a weak number will undercut the USD further." "Beyond the data, news of tariff negotiation progress remains scant and signs of friction in the Republican part around President Trump’s tax cut bill adds to the unhelpful uncertainty around the outlook. The overall technical look of the DXY remains bearish, we think. The downtrend in place since the start of the year remains intact and entrenched. Technical momentum signals remain aligned bearishly (for the DXY) across a range of time frames. Typically, that means little scope for counter trend corrections and an ongoing bias towards weakness. We think the DXY could lose as much as another 5-10% in the next few months."
13:58 BOC leaves the policy rate at 2.75% for the second time – BBH
USD/CAD is breaking lower. The downward shift in US rate expectations outweighed the Bank of Canada (BOC) slightly dovish hold, BBH FX analysts report.
USD/CAD is breaking lower. The downward shift in US rate expectations outweighed the Bank of Canada (BOC) slightly dovish hold, BBH FX analysts report. USD/CAD slides despite dovish lean in BOC statement"As was largely expected, the BOC left the policy rate at 2.75% for a second consecutive time. The BOC pointed out 'there was a clear consensus to hold policy unchanged' while adding that 'the Canadian economy is softer but not sharply weaker' and 'underlying inflation could be firmer than we thought'.""However, the BOC left the door open for more easing noting: 'On balance, members thought there could be a need for a reduction in the policy rate if the economy weakens in the face of continued US tariffs and uncertainty, and cost pressures on inflation are contained'.""The next BOC meeting is July 30, alongside the release of its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. There was minimal reaction in the swaps curve after yesterday’s BOC policy decision. The swaps market continues to price in roughly 40% probability of a 25bps cut in July and a total of almost 50bps of easing over the next 12 months. If so, the policy rate would bottom at the lower end of the BOC’s neutral range estimate of between 2.25% to 3.25%."
13:55 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD refreshes four-week high as Sino-US trade worries fuel safe-haven demand
Gold price (XAU/USD) posts a fresh four-week high, advances to near $3,400 during European trading hours on Thursday.
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The yellow metal strengthens as uncertainty over potential trade deal between the United States (US) and China has accelerated, technically increasing the demand for safe-haven assets.On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump signaled in a post on Truth.Social that a trade deal with Beijing is very difficult. "I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!" Trump wrote.Another reason behind strength in the Gold price is the significant decline in the US bond yields. Theoretically, lower yields on interest-bearing assets increase demand for non-yielding assets, such as Gold. 10-year US Treasury Yields have extended their downside to near 4.35%, the lowest level seen in four weeks.US bond yields tumbled on Wednesday after an array of disappointing US economic data, notable a sharp slowdown in the private sector labor demand. The ADP reported that the private sector added 37K fresh workers, which were lowest since January 2021. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI report indicated an unexpected decline in the service sector activity and poor demand outlook.Soft US data has led to a slight increase in dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates in July has increased to 30% from 22.5% seen a week ago.Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.Gold technical analysisGold price jumps to near $3,400 on Thursday. The yellow metal gains after stabilizing above the upward-sloping trendline on a daily timeframe around $3,335, which is plotted from December 12 high of $2,726. The near-term trend of the precious metal is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around $3,317.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above that level.Looking up, the Gold price could advance to near the May 7 high around $3,440 and the psychological level of $3,500 after stabilizing above $3,400.Alternatively, a downside move by the Gold price below the May 29 low of $3,245 would drag it towards the round-level support of $3,200, followed by the May 15 low at $3,121.Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
13:43 USD/CNH: Any further decline is unlikely to break below 7.1600 – BBH
US Dollar (USD) could continue to weaken against Chinese Yuan (CNH); any further decline is unlikely to break below 7.1600. In the longer run, mild downward pressure could lead to USD edging lower; it remains to be seen if it can reach 7.1400, BBH FX analysts report.
US Dollar (USD) could continue to weaken against Chinese Yuan (CNH); any further decline is unlikely to break below 7.1600. In the longer run, mild downward pressure could lead to USD edging lower; it remains to be seen if it can reach 7.1400, BBH FX analysts report. Downward pressure can lead to USD edging lower24-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we held the view that USD 'is likely to trade between 7.1800 and 7.2050.' We did not expect USD to drop to 7.1701. USD could continue to weaken today, but given the oversold conditions, any further decline is unlikely to break below 7.1600. On the upside, a break of 7.1900 (minor resistance is at 7.1810) would suggest the weakness has stabilised." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "In our latest narrative from last Thursday (29 May, spot at 7.2025), we highlighted that USD “is likely to trade in a range between 7.1800 and 7.2300 for now.” After trading within the range for several days, USD fell and broke below 7.1800 yesterday, reaching a low of 7.1701. Despite the decline, there has only been a slight increase in downward momentum. From here, we expect USD to edge lower, but it remains to be seen if there is sufficient momentum for it to reach 7.1400. On the upside, should USD break above 7.1960, it would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has faded."
13:39 China’s services PMI edges up in May – BBH
China private sector services activity picked-up in May, BBH FX analysts report.
China private sector services activity picked-up in May, BBH FX analysts report. China services sector expands modestly"The Caixin services PMI increased 0.1pts more than expected to 51.1 vs. 50.7 in April. Nevertheless, the recovery remains fragile, and we expect more stimulus measures in the second half of the year.""Earlier this week, Caixin reported that is manufacturing PMI dropped to the lowest level since September 2022 at 48.3 vs. 50.4 in April. The result is the Caixin composite PMI fell to 49.6 (lowest since December 2022) vs. 51.1 in April."
13:35 USD/JPY: Likely to trade between 142.10 and 145.50 – UOB Group
There is scope for US Dollar (USD) to continue to weaken against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major support at 142.10 is unlikely to come under threat.
There is scope for US Dollar (USD) to continue to weaken against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major support at 142.10 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, price action suggests that USD is still trading in a range, most likely between 142.10 and 145.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY is set to continue weakening 24-HOUR VIEW: " In wake of the strong rebound in USD two days ago, we stated yesterday that 'the sharp rebound appears to be excessive, and any further rebound is likely part of a higher range of 143.30/144.30 instead of a sustained advance.' USD then rose above 144.30 (high of 144.38) and then in a sudden move during the NY session, plummeted to a low of 142.58. This time around, the sharp decline appears to be excessive. However, there is scope for USD to continue to weaken, even though the major support at 142.10 is unlikely to come under threat (there is another support at 142.35). Resistance is at 143.00; a breach of 143.40 would suggest that the weakness has stabilised." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from yesterday (04 Jun, spot at 143.85) remains valid. As highlighted, the recent price action 'suggests USD is still trading in a range, most likely between 142.10 and 145.50'.”
13:31 Limited inflation pressures allow BOJ to stay cautious – BBH
JPY is underperforming all major currencies, BBH FX analysts report.
JPY is underperforming all major currencies, BBH FX analysts report. BOJ patience remains justified amid mixed wage data"Japan’s April labor cash earnings report was mixed. Nominal cash earnings were softer than expected at 2.3% y/y (consensus: 2.6%) vs. 2.3% in March but the less volatile scheduled pay growth for full-time workers ran hot at 2.5% y/y (consensus: 2.3%) vs. 2.1% in March.""Regardless, wage growth in Japan is not a source of significant inflation pressures given annual total factor productivity growth of around 1%. As such, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) can afford to be patient with its normalization cycle which is an ongoing headwind for JPY. The swaps market still implies about 50bps of BOJ rate hikes to 1.00% over the next two years."
13:29 EUR/JPY recovery loses steam at 163.60 with all eyes on the ECB
The Euro keeps trading on a moderate positive bias on Thursday, fuelled by a positive surprise on Eurozone services PMI data, but remains trading within previous days’ ranges, with investors awaiting the ECB’s monetary policy decision.The bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth
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The bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, bringing its benchmark rate to 2%, and President Lagarde will stick to her neutral “meeting by meeting” message, avoiding committing to any particular rate path.ECB-BoJ monetary divergence might limit Euro ralliesAfter having slashed rates by 200 basis points in about one year, investors are pricing a pause in July. Longer-term, however, the soft Eurozone Economic growth and cooling inflation figures suggest that there is room for some more cuts later this year.
Eurozone Producer Prices Index has contracted at a faster-than-expected pace in May, -2.2% against expectations of a -1.8% monthly decline, following a 1.7% contraction in April. Darta, released on Tuesday, showed that consumer prices fell below the ECB’s 2% target rate.In Japan, recent comments by BoJ Governour Ueda keep hopes of further monetary tightening alive, which is keeping Yen’s downside attempts limited. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
The bank is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, bringing its benchmark rate to 2%, and President Lagarde will stick to her neutral “meeting by meeting” message, avoiding committing to any particular rate path.ECB-BoJ monetary divergence might limit Euro ralliesAfter having slashed rates by 200 basis points in about one year, investors are pricing a pause in July. Longer-term, however, the soft Eurozone Economic growth and cooling inflation figures suggest that there is room for some more cuts later this year.
Eurozone Producer Prices Index has contracted at a faster-than-expected pace in May, -2.2% against expectations of a -1.8% monthly decline, following a 1.7% contraction in April. Darta, released on Tuesday, showed that consumer prices fell below the ECB’s 2% target rate.In Japan, recent comments by BoJ Governour Ueda keep hopes of further monetary tightening alive, which is keeping Yen’s downside attempts limited. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
13:26 NZD/USD: Any advance is unlikely to threaten this week’s high, near 0.6055 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge higher against US Dollar (USD), but any advance is unlikely to threaten this week’s high, near 0.6055.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could edge higher against US Dollar (USD), but any advance is unlikely to threaten this week’s high, near 0.6055. In the longer run, rapid buildup in upward momentum indicates further NZD strength; the level to monitor is 0.6095, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Rapid buildup in upward momentum indicates further NZD strength24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that NZD 'appears to have entered a consolidation phase, and today, we expect it to trade between 0.5985 and 0.6030.' NZD then traded in a higher range of 0.5995/0.6039, closing on a firm note at 0.6028 (+0.28%). Today, NZD could edge higher, but barring a sudden surge in momentum, any advance is unlikely to threaten this week’s high, near 0.6055. Support levels are at 0.6010 and 0.5995." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive in NZD two days ago (03 Jun, spot at 0.6040). We indicated that 'the level to monitor is 0.6095.' While there has been no further increase in upward momentum, our view remains unchanged for now. All in all, only a breach of 0.5970 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the buildup in momentum has faded."
13:24 BOE seen pausing June 19 – BBH
GBP/USD is firm just under key resistance at 1.3600. UK inflation expectations were anchored in May, BBH FX analysts report.
GBP/USD is firm just under key resistance at 1.3600. UK inflation expectations were anchored in May, BBH FX analysts report. 60bps of cuts still priced over 12 months"The BOE’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey showed 1-year expectations dipped to 3.0% (consensus: 3.2%) vs. 3.1% in April and 3-year expectations printed at 2.7% for a second consecutive month. Both series are still above their series lows of 2.5% in October 2024 and will likely keep the Bank of England (BOE) on a cautious easing path.""Indeed, the BOE is expected to pause easing at the next June 19 meeting. Looking ahead, the swaps market continues to imply 60bps of cuts over the next 12 months and the policy rate to bottom between 3.50% and 3.75%.""The Office for National Statistics (ONS) flagged an error to its April CPI report but that won’t shift the dial on BOE rate expectations. According to the ONS, April headline CPI was revised down by 0.1pts to 3.4% y/y, aligning with the BOE’s projection and down from the initial 3.5% print."
13:19 AUD/USD is close to testing 0.6540 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) could first test 0.6515 against the US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) could first test 0.6515 against the US Dollar (USD) before the risk of a pullback increases. In the longer run, price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD can continue to rise24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to 'trade in a range between 0.6445 and 0.6490' yesterday. However, after dipping to 0.6452, AUD rose, reaching a high of 0.6504. Although there has been no marked increase in upward momentum, AUD could first test 0.6515 before the risk of a pullback increases. The major resistance at 0.6540 is probably out of reach. Support is at 0.6475; a breach of 0.6460 would indicate the current upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Tuesday (03 Jun, spot at 0.6490), we highlighted that the 'price action suggests AUD could continue to rise and test the significant resistance level at 0.6540.' Since then, AUD has not been able to make much headway on the upside. That said, we will maintain our view provided that the ‘strong support’ at 0.6430 (no change in level) is not breached."
13:09 ECB seen cutting rate to 2.00% – BBH
The ECB is widely expected to cut the policy rate 25bps to 2.00% (8:15am New York, 1:15pm London), BBH FX analysts report.
The ECB is widely expected to cut the policy rate 25bps to 2.00% (8:15am New York, 1:15pm London), BBH FX analysts report. Focus turns to Lagarde and split vote"President Christine Lagarde’s press conference is 30mins later. The ECB will publish updated macroeconomic projections. At the last April 16-17 policy meeting, the ECB unanimously decided to cut the policy rate by 25bps to 2.25% citing 'the disinflation process is well on track' and 'the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions'.""This time around we doubt the decision to cut the policy rate will be unanimous as a few ECB policymakers (Holzmann, Nagel, Müller, and Schnabel) have recently signaled preference for a pause. A split vote can lead to a modest upward adjustment to ECB rate expectations in favor of EUR. Interest rate futures imply 60bps of ECB easing over next 12 months and the policy rate to bottom between 1.50% and 1.75%."
13:00 Ireland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 22.2% above expectations (13.3%) in 1Q
Ireland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 22.2% above expectations (13.3%) in 1Q
13:00 Ireland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 9.7%, above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q
Ireland Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 9.7%, above expectations (3.2%) in 1Q
12:59 USD/JPY: Weak US data & JGB auction in focus – MUFG
The US dollar has been consolidating at weaker levels overnight following yesterday’s sell-off triggered by weak US economic data releases. It has resulted in the dollar index falling back towards recent lows at just below the 99.000-level.
The US dollar has been consolidating at weaker levels overnight following yesterday’s sell-off triggered by weak US economic data releases. It has resulted in the dollar index falling back towards recent lows at just below the 99.000-level. The US dollar came under renewed selling pressure yesterday following the releases of the latest ADP and ISM services surveys for May. The ADP survey estimated that private employment growth slowed more sharply than expected to 37k in May which was well below the consensus forecast of 114k, MUFG economist Lee Hardman reports. BoJ is also set to announce updated JGB tapering plans"It has heightened expectations that the release of the NFP on Friday could similarly reveal a bigger slowdown in the US labour market which has encouraged market participants to price back in more Fed easing. The 2-year US Treasury bond yield fell sharply yesterday by 8bps taking it back to its lowest level in a month. Looking back at the recent accuracy of the ADP survey as a predictor for NFP private employment growth, one can see that it has underestimated NFP private employment growth for the last three months to April by an average of -74k/month based on the initial data releases." "At the same time, the release of the ISM services survey revealed that business confidence continued to deteriorate in May falling to its lowest level since June of last year at 49.9. Weakness was most evident in the new orders sub-component which fell by 5.9 points to 46.4 and to the lowest level since December 2022. The impact of tariff hikes and heightened policy uncertainty is weighing on business confidence and lifting input costs. The decline in US yields indicates that market participants are putting more weight on loosening labour market conditions than higher inflation from tariff hikes when determining the outlook for Fed policy.""The drop in US yields contributed to USD/JPY hitting a low overnight at 142.53 although it has since risen back above the 143.00-level. The main focus overnight in Japan has been the latest 30-year JGB auction after the recent sharp sell-off at the long-end of the curve. JGBs have reacted positively overnight with the 30-year yield dropping by 6bps to 2.89% as it moves further below last month’s high of 3.20%. According to Bloomberg, the outcome from the 30-year auction was largely seen as being within the expected range providing some initial relief. The BoJ is also set to announce updated JGB tapering plans at their 17th June policy meeting. Recent comments from Governor Ueda have signalled that they are unlikely to slow the pace of tapering."
12:52 USD/JPY rises above 143.00 as Japanese Yen underperforms across the board
The USD/JPY pair is up 0.25% to near 143.10 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair trades firmly as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY climbs slightly above 143.00 as Yen weakens on fears that Japan could face economic turbulence due to the fallout of the US tariff policy.BoJ’s Ueda warned that US tariffs could hurt domestic wage growth.Poor US private employment data weighs on the US Dollar.The USD/JPY pair is up 0.25% to near 143.10 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair trades firmly as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board. The Japanese currency faces a sharp selling pressure as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda has warned that the United States (US) tariff policy could hurt domestic wage growth, a scenario that could delay central bank’s plans to raise interest rates in the near term. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% -0.04% 0.29% -0.11% -0.29% -0.23% 0.17% EUR -0.06% -0.04% 0.25% -0.14% -0.34% -0.35% 0.14% GBP 0.04% 0.04% 0.33% -0.10% -0.28% -0.31% 0.17% JPY -0.29% -0.25% -0.33% -0.42% -0.63% -0.61% -0.12% CAD 0.11% 0.14% 0.10% 0.42% -0.22% -0.21% 0.27% AUD 0.29% 0.34% 0.28% 0.63% 0.22% -0.03% 0.49% NZD 0.23% 0.35% 0.31% 0.61% 0.21% 0.03% 0.50% CHF -0.17% -0.14% -0.17% 0.12% -0.27% -0.49% -0.50% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
On Tuesday, Kazuo Ueda warned that US tariffs could weigh somewhat on “Japanese companies' winter bonus payments and next year's wage talks with unions”, Reuters reported. However, Ueda expressed confidence that the “economic and wage growth would re-accelerate, and keep consumption on a moderate uptrend”.About the monetary policy outlook, BoJ Ueda stated that interest rate hikes would become appropriate once officials get convinced that the economy and inflation will re-accelerate after a period of economic sluggishness.However, the upside in the pair is expected to remain limited as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain ground due to disappointing US economic data for May, notable poor ADP Employment Change. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, appears vulnerable near the six-week low of 98.60.On Wednesday, the ADP report showed that the private sector added 37K fresh workers, which were lowest since January 2021. Economists anticipated a robust hiring of 115K against 60K seen in April. Additionally, an unexpected decline in the Service PMI also battered the US Dollar.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be released on Friday. The official employment data will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
12:46 GBP/USD: Unlikely to break clearly above 1.3600 – UOB Group
A slight increase in upward momentum suggests an upside bias, but Pound Sterling (GBP) is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3600. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3600 before a sustained advance can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
A slight increase in upward momentum suggests an upside bias, but Pound Sterling (GBP) is unlikely to break clearly above 1.3600. In the longer run, GBP must first close above 1.3600 before a sustained advance can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A sustained advance can be expected above 1.360024-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3530, we pointed out that 'the current price movements are likely part of a 1.3490/1.3555 range trading phase.' GBP traded in a wider range than expected, between 1.3501 and 1.3580, closing at 1.3556 (+0.27%). The slight increase in momentum suggests an upside bias today, but currently, GBP does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly above 1.3600 (there is another resistance at 1.3580). Support levels are at 1.3530 and 1.3510." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Two days ago (03 Jun, spot at 1.3555), we indicated that 'there has been an increase in short-term upward momentum, but for a sustained advance, GBP must first close above 1.3600.' GBP traded in a relatively stable manner over the past couple of days, and we continue to hold the same view. Overall, only a breach of 1.3470 (no change in the ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the potential for GBP breaking clearly above 1.3600 has faded."
12:42 Fed: Powell's policy problem – UBS
A total of 52 out of 52 surveyed economists expect a quarter point ECB rate reduction today. 'How could so many economists possibly be wrong?', UBS' economist Paul Donovan asks.
A total of 52 out of 52 surveyed economists expect a quarter point ECB rate reduction today. 'How could so many economists possibly be wrong?', UBS' economist Paul Donovan asks. US economy is plagued by growth and inflation uncertainty"US President Trump is likely to become even more irate after criticizing the Federal Reserve for not cutting rates. Fed Chair Powell’s insistence on data dependency certainly increases the risk of policy error (policy operates with a lag, and real time data is increasingly unreliable). While data dependency is normally a bad option, there may be little choice now. Per yesterday's Beige Book, the US economy is plagued by growth and inflation uncertainty.""US first quarter productivity data is not market moving. Actual productivity matters enormously to long-term trend growth. Technology should boost productivity, but also increases fear of the future. That encourages scapegoat economics—scared populations blame others for their insecurities. Groups whose status recently improved (e.g., LGBTQ+ groups) and foreigners are traditional scapegoats. The resulting prejudice politics undermines long-term growth. How we use technology is what really matters, which requires the right person, the right job, and the right time. Random immigration bans, attacks on LGBTQ+ people, and economic nationalism undermine trend growth." "German April factory orders were stronger than consensus expectations, but this is so volatile a series the consensus is a huge spectrum."
12:37 EUR/USD clears channel resistance, eyes 1.1470 next – Société Générale
EUR/USD is showing renewed upward momentum after defending key support, breaking out of its recent channel and regaining technical strength. With bullish signals in place, the pair appears poised for further gains in the near term, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
EUR/USD is showing renewed upward momentum after defending key support, breaking out of its recent channel and regaining technical strength. With bullish signals in place, the pair appears poised for further gains in the near term, Société Générale's FX analysts note. 50-DMA hold at 1.1245/1.1200 reinforces bullish bias"EUR/USD broke out from a short-term channel after defending the 50-DMA near 1.1065 (now at 1.1245). Daily MACD remains anchored within positive territory and has crossed above its trigger line highlighting regaining upward momentum." "The pair looks poised to head higher gradually towards 1.1470 and April high of 1.1570. The 50-DMA and recent pivot low of 1.1245/1.1200 is an important support zone near term."
12:31 Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.
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Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $34.88 per troy ounce, up 1.14% from the $34.49 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have increased by 20.72% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD Troy Ounce 34.88 1 Gram 1.12
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 96.78 on Thursday, down from 97.79 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 96.78 on Thursday, down from 97.79 on Wednesday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
12:27 AUD/USD returns above 0.6500 amid broad-based USD weakness
The Australian Dollar is trading higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday as US Dollar weakness offsets the impact of the downbeat Australian GDP figures seen on Wednesday, pushing the pair to one-week highs above 0.6500.The US Dollar weakness is the main driver of an otherwise calm market
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The Australian Dollar is trading higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday as US Dollar weakness offsets the impact of the downbeat Australian GDP figures seen on Wednesday, pushing the pair to one-week highs above 0.6500.
The US Dollar weakness is the main driver of an otherwise calm market on Thursday. The Greenback was hit on Wednesday by an unexpected contraction of US Services activity, as reported by the ISM PMI index, and a lower-than expected increase on ADP payrolls, which cast doubts on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and revived fears of a recession in the US.
Beyond that, the tariffs turmoil has returned to the forefront, as Trump deemed trade negotiations with Chinese Premier Xi as “extremely hard” amid a lack of progress in deals with any other country, on the day that levies in Steel and Aluminium increased to 50% from the previous 25% level.The AUD is weathering global trade uncertainty for nowThe uncertain trade scenario, curiously, is hurting the US Dollar, rather than the traditionally risk-sensitive Aussie so far. The soft macroeconomic data seen in the US this week, coupled with trade restrictions that would hamper economic growth further, and the rising concerns about the ballooning US debt, are driving traders away from US assets, looking for alternative assets.
These figures have offset the impact of a poor Australian GDP, which grew at a 0.2% pace in Q1, disappointing expectations of a 0.4% rise and highlighting a significant slowdown from the previous quarter’s 0.6% growth.
Apart from that, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting revealed that the bank considered a 0.5% rate cut, and that they are ready to deliver rapid-fire rate cuts if Trump’s tariffs hurt economic growth. This stance might limit the Australian Dollar’s rallies. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Australian Dollar is trading higher for the second consecutive day on Thursday as US Dollar weakness offsets the impact of the downbeat Australian GDP figures seen on Wednesday, pushing the pair to one-week highs above 0.6500.
The US Dollar weakness is the main driver of an otherwise calm market on Thursday. The Greenback was hit on Wednesday by an unexpected contraction of US Services activity, as reported by the ISM PMI index, and a lower-than expected increase on ADP payrolls, which cast doubts on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and revived fears of a recession in the US.
Beyond that, the tariffs turmoil has returned to the forefront, as Trump deemed trade negotiations with Chinese Premier Xi as “extremely hard” amid a lack of progress in deals with any other country, on the day that levies in Steel and Aluminium increased to 50% from the previous 25% level.The AUD is weathering global trade uncertainty for nowThe uncertain trade scenario, curiously, is hurting the US Dollar, rather than the traditionally risk-sensitive Aussie so far. The soft macroeconomic data seen in the US this week, coupled with trade restrictions that would hamper economic growth further, and the rising concerns about the ballooning US debt, are driving traders away from US assets, looking for alternative assets.
These figures have offset the impact of a poor Australian GDP, which grew at a 0.2% pace in Q1, disappointing expectations of a 0.4% rise and highlighting a significant slowdown from the previous quarter’s 0.6% growth.
Apart from that, the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting revealed that the bank considered a 0.5% rate cut, and that they are ready to deliver rapid-fire rate cuts if Trump’s tariffs hurt economic growth. This stance might limit the Australian Dollar’s rallies. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
12:26 BoE DMP Survey: UK firms’ inflation expectations remain at 3.2% in the May quarter
The latest Bank of England (BoE) Decision Maker Panel (DMP) quarterly survey released on Thursday showed that “one-year ahead expected CPI inflation by the UK firms remained unchanged at 3.2% in the quarter to May.”
The latest Bank of England (BoE) Decision Maker Panel (DMP) quarterly survey released on Thursday showed that “one-year ahead expected CPI inflation by the UK firms remained unchanged at 3.2% in the quarter to May.”Key takeawaysUS trade policy remains one of the top three sources of uncertainty for UK businesses.
But the share of firms seeing that to be the case is now down to 12% (previously 22%).
70% of UK firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their business.
Firms' expected year-ahead wage growth now seen at 3.7%, down by 0.1% from before.The survey is one of the most closely watched by members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).Market reactionAt the press time, GBP/USD is defending bids near 1.3570, up 0.05% on the day.
But the share of firms seeing that to be the case is now down to 12% (previously 22%).
70% of UK firms reported that changes to US trade policy would have no material impact on their business.
Firms' expected year-ahead wage growth now seen at 3.7%, down by 0.1% from before.The survey is one of the most closely watched by members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).Market reactionAt the press time, GBP/USD is defending bids near 1.3570, up 0.05% on the day.
12:17 USD/CHF holds gains above 0.8200 following Swiss Unemployment Rate
USD/CHF recovers its recent losses of over 0.50% registered in the previous session, trading around 0.8200 during the European hours on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted Swiss Unemployment Rate rose to 2.9% month-over-month in May, indicating a lack of expansion within the Swiss labor market.
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The seasonally adjusted Swiss Unemployment Rate rose to 2.9% month-over-month in May, indicating a lack of expansion within the Swiss labor market. The market expected the unemployment rate to remain consistent at April’s 2.8%.The upside of the USD/CHF pair could be restrained as the US Dollar may face challenges, as rising tariff uncertainty could potentially dampen growth in the US economy. This scenario worsened after the weaker economic data was released in the United States (US).Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.US economic concerns worsened following the weaker economic data from the United States (US). Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Wednesday, calling upon Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to lower the policy rate. "ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES," Trump said. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
12:03 Spain 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.375% to 2.386%
Spain 5-y Bond Auction climbed from previous 2.375% to 2.386%
12:02 Spain 3-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.251% to 2.118%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 2.251% to 2.118%
12:01 France 10-y Bond Auction down to 3.17% from previous 3.37%
France 10-y Bond Auction down to 3.17% from previous 3.37%
12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (1.2%) in April
Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (1.2%) in April
12:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -2.2%, below expectations (-1.8%) in April
Eurozone Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -2.2%, below expectations (-1.8%) in April
12:00 Greece Unemployment Rate (QoQ) increased to 10.4% in 1Q from previous 9.5%
Greece Unemployment Rate (QoQ) increased to 10.4% in 1Q from previous 9.5%
11:59 On the surface, things are still going well in the US – Commerzbank
The hard US data still looks pretty good and that there are no real signs of the feared stagflation yet. This is hardly surprising, as most tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, so markets are unlikely to see any effects until the tariffs are actually put in place.
The hard US data still looks pretty good and that there are no real signs of the feared stagflation yet. This is hardly surprising, as most tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, so markets are unlikely to see any effects until the tariffs are actually put in place. Unless they are suspended further, this would be the case in mid-July, i.e. in the second half of the year, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. Hard US data still looks reasonable"The great uncertainty is certainly already having an impact on corporate decisions, even if this is not yet really visible in the hard data. At least weakening sentiment indicators such as the ISM index for manufacturing and services suggest that something is afoot among businesses and consumers. But for now, we will probably have to accept that the fundamentals in the US will remain quite strong for some time, especially the labor market, as tomorrow's June labor market report is likely to confirm." "Don't let the weak ADP index ('only' 37k private sector jobs created), which already weighed on the US Dollar (USD) yesterday, scare you – it underestimated the official data by 63k in February, 54k in March, and 105k in April. We have often repeated that the ADP index is not a good indicator for NFP numbers.""The fact that the hard data still looks reasonable would be one – albeit very simple – explanation for why interest rate and currency markets are diverging somewhat: the interest rate market is reacting more strongly to the inflation outlook influenced by tariffs, whereas the FX market is focusing more on the (still) decent growth figures and outlook. However, the sword of Damocles in the form of the tarnished status of the USD and US government bonds as safe havens affects both equally."
11:55 USD: 'Slightly pessimistic and uncertain' – ING
'Slightly pessimistic and uncertain' was the characterisation of the US outlook expressed in the Fed's Beige Book released last night and ahead of the next FOMC meeting on 19 June.
'Slightly pessimistic and uncertain' was the characterisation of the US outlook expressed in the Fed's Beige Book released last night and ahead of the next FOMC meeting on 19 June. Yet business sentiment did not show any clear deterioration over prior Beige Books, and the report also noted that 'there were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward'. This latter point is keeping the Fed resistant to growing political pressure to cut rates, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.USD is susceptible to further downside"Softer US data has weighed on the USD a little, even as the trade war has had a relatively quiet week. Instead, there continues to be focus on the progress – or otherwise – of President Trump's tax bill. In an update yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office now expects the bill to add $2.4tr to the US budget deficit over the next decade. Despite this, the US Treasury market is calmer. The 10-year swap spread has narrowed back to 52bp. And bond market volatility is dropping. However, next week's auctions of three and 10-year Treasuries could easily refocus on market stress."Despite this week's relative calm – including the MSCI world equity index pushing up to a new all-time high – traded FX volatility remains relatively high. These levels for EUR/USD and USD/JPY are still trading above 8% and 11% respectively for the one month. And, notably, the term structure of the traded volatility curve shows a kink in the two-month tenor – no doubt wary that President Trump's 90-day pause on 'Liberation Day' tariffs ends on 9 July and could be followed by another wave of harsh tariff rhetoric.""This all leaves the USD gently offered and susceptible to further downside should US data point in that direction. Today's narrowing in the April trade data should actually be a positive for 2Q GDP, but the market will probably take more notice of the initial weekly jobless claims data, given that investors are on the lookout for signs of layoffs. FX moves may be muted, however, in advance of tomorrow's NFP data. DXY should stay soft in a 98.50-99.50 range, but could get a small lift if a dovish ECB today knocks EUR/USD."
11:50 EUR: No big surprises from the ECB – Commerzbank
The market is convinced that the ECB will cut its key rates by another 25 basis points today. This will lower the deposit rate to 2.00%.
The market is convinced that the ECB will cut its key rates by another 25 basis points today. This will lower the deposit rate to 2.00%. ECB Council members have signaled such a move too often in recent weeks – only a few super hawks such as Robert Holzmann of the Austrian National Bank have expressed reservations, Commerzbank's FX analyst Antje Praefcke notes. ECB to lower rates one last time in September to 1.75%"At the same time, the ECB is likely to lower its growth and inflation forecasts for 2025 slightly, which would underpin the interest rate move. These forecast changes are likely to be based on the expected growth-dampening effect of US tariffs and lower energy prices. The stronger Euro may also be mentioned, as it further reduces inflationary risks. The inflation figures for May, which were published the day before yesterday, are entirely in line with this – they provide an excellent basis for a revision of the projections and today's cut. The ECB meeting will therefore be in line with market expectations and have little impact on the Euro.""The question is, at most, what the ECB might envisage for later in the year. Our experts assume that the c. This is supported by growth concerns and inflation, which could even remain below the 2% target for a short period. In the medium term, however, the ECB is likely to assume that the trade war will tend to push up prices, meaning that inflation will pick up again if the tariffs are introduced. The ECB is therefore likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach after its last interest rate step in the fall.""However, following the inflation figures released on Tuesday, the market currently sees a chance that the ECB could take one more step before the end of the year, bringing the deposit rate to 1.50%. Until then, however, anything is possible in these uncertain times (keyword: US tariff policy). At least a dovish surprise from the ECB is not really possible today. This also suggests that the Euro will show little reaction to the interest rate decision."
11:43 EUR: Dovish ECB could keep Euro gains in check – ING
The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today. This will take the deposit rate to 2.00%. The market currently prices a further 25bp cut by the 30 October meeting.
The ECB is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today. This will take the deposit rate to 2.00%. The market currently prices a further 25bp cut by the 30 October meeting. There's a risk of the pricing of the next cut, after today, being brought forward to the 11 September meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.EUR/USD can go back to the 1.1330/1360 area today"The ECB is widely expected to be dovish today. And there could be some big downward revisions to the inflation forecasts, which would argue that the policy rate needs to go below neutral and into the accommodative area. Currently, the 1m EUR ESTR rate priced one year forward sits at 1.60%. This could easily dip back to the 1.50% area and had seen 1.40% priced amid the April trade tumult.""The Euro has been a slight laggard in the soft USD environment, and actually the G10 commodity currencies have been the best performers against the USD over the last week. A dovish ECB today could briefly send EUR/USD back to the 1.1330/1360 area today, but we would expect more buying to emerge there ahead of what could be USD bearish NFP release tomorrow."
11:35 EUR/USD: Likely to test 1.1455 in the near term – UOB Group
Recovery has gained momentum; Euro (EUR) could test 1.1455 against US Dollar (USD), but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely.
Recovery has gained momentum; Euro (EUR) could test 1.1455 against US Dollar (USD), but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. In the longer run, EUR outlook is revised to positive; the immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR outlook is revised to positive24-HOUR VIEW: "EUR pulled back to 1.1362 on Tuesday. Yesterday, Wednesday, when EUR was at 1.1385, we indicated that 'there is no significant increase in downward momentum, and instead of continuing to pull back, EUR is more likely to trade in a range of 1.1360/1.1430.' EUR subsequently dipped to 1.1356 before recovering, reaching 1.1434. The recovery has gained some momentum, and today, EUR could test this week’s high, near 1.1455. A breach of this level is not ruled out, but the current momentum suggests a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. Any further advance is also unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1495. Support is at 1.1400, followed by 1.1380." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from two days ago, 03 Jun, when EUR was at 1.1445. We revised our EUR outlook to positive, and we indicated 'the immediate levels to watch are 1.1495 and 1.1530.' Although EUR has not been able to make much headway on the upside since then, we will maintain our view as long as 1.1345 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is intact."
11:30 US Dollar Index (DXY) remains depressed below 99.00 as recession fears return
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading practically flat on Thursday, consolidating losses after a bearish reversal on Wednesday, as downbeat Services and employment data, coupled with the ongoing tariffs uncertainty, revived fears of an upcoming recession.The US Institute of Supply Management’s Servic
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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading practically flat on Thursday, consolidating losses after a bearish reversal on Wednesday, as downbeat Services and employment data, coupled with the ongoing tariffs uncertainty, revived fears of an upcoming recession.
The US Institute of Supply Management’s Services PMI reading revealed that business activity in the sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year. The index dipped to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April against an improvement to the 52.0 level forecasted by the market.Weak US data and trade concerns keep the USD on the defensiveThese figures follow another negative surprise in the Manufacturing sector, and a sharper-than-expected decline in Factory orders, all in all figures that hints to a weak US economic growth in the second quarter.
Somewhat earlier, the US ADP Employment report posted a poor 37K increase on May’s private payrolls against expectations of a 115K increase. These figures cast doubt on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and have heightened fears of a significant slowdown in employment creation.
Beyond that, US President Trump complained that reaching a deal with Chinese President Xi is “extremely hard”, which brought the lack of progress on the trade negotiations back to the forefront, dampening sentiment further and adding pressure to a battered US Dollar. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading practically flat on Thursday, consolidating losses after a bearish reversal on Wednesday, as downbeat Services and employment data, coupled with the ongoing tariffs uncertainty, revived fears of an upcoming recession.
The US Institute of Supply Management’s Services PMI reading revealed that business activity in the sector contracted for the first time in nearly a year. The index dipped to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April against an improvement to the 52.0 level forecasted by the market.Weak US data and trade concerns keep the USD on the defensiveThese figures follow another negative surprise in the Manufacturing sector, and a sharper-than-expected decline in Factory orders, all in all figures that hints to a weak US economic growth in the second quarter.
Somewhat earlier, the US ADP Employment report posted a poor 37K increase on May’s private payrolls against expectations of a 115K increase. These figures cast doubt on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report and have heightened fears of a significant slowdown in employment creation.
Beyond that, US President Trump complained that reaching a deal with Chinese President Xi is “extremely hard”, which brought the lack of progress on the trade negotiations back to the forefront, dampening sentiment further and adding pressure to a battered US Dollar. US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
11:30 NZD/USD appreciates to near 0.6050 despite a stable US Dollar, Initial Jobless Claims eyed
NZD/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 0.6030 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair maintains its position near an eight-month high at 0.6055, recorded on June 3.
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The pair maintains its position near an eight-month high at 0.6055, recorded on June 3. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might have received support from China’s Caixin Services PMI, which rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-China trade talks. US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, saying, "I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!"The upside of the NZD/USD pair could be restrained as the US Dollar appreciates, potentially driven by a technical correction. However, the Greenback may lose ground due to weakening risk sentiment as rising tariff uncertainty could potentially dampen growth in the US economy.Economic uncertainty worsened following the weaker economic data from the United States (US). Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.Traders will likely observe the US Balance of Trade and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims later in the North American session. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls will be eyed, seeking further impetus regarding the Fed’s policy outlook. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI registered at 47.9 above expectations (47.2) in May
United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI registered at 47.9 above expectations (47.2) in May
11:03 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains positive, supported above $34.00
Silver prices (XAG/USD) maintain their bullish structure intact, with bulls aiming for the $34.60-$34.80 resistance area, with downside attempts contained above the $34.00 support level.A US Dollar on its back foot is contributing to keeping the precious metal buoyed.
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A US Dollar on its back foot is contributing to keeping the precious metal buoyed. US ISM Services PMI data showed an unexpected contraction in the sector’s activity in May, and the ADP Employment report posted a poor increase in payrolls, which revived fears of an economic recession.
Beyond that, the global trade scenario remains highly uncertain. The negotiations between the US and its trade partners are failing to yield any significant breakthrough, and Trump has complained about the difficulties of cutting a deal with China’s President, Xi, revealing that the world’s two major economies are far from reaching a trade agreement.XAG/USD is showing an ascending triangle patternThe technical picture shows a bullish structure in place, from mid-May lows at $31.75, with price action testing the top of an ascending triangle pattern, which points to an eventual bullish outcome.
Prices are about to test the top of the triangle, at the lower limit of the $34.60-34-80 resistance area, which has been holding the pair over the last few days. Above here, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension awaits at the $36.10 area.
On the downside, a breach of $34.00 would invalidate this view, and add pressure towards the previous top, at $33.65 ahead of the $32.70 level.XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
A US Dollar on its back foot is contributing to keeping the precious metal buoyed. US ISM Services PMI data showed an unexpected contraction in the sector’s activity in May, and the ADP Employment report posted a poor increase in payrolls, which revived fears of an economic recession.
Beyond that, the global trade scenario remains highly uncertain. The negotiations between the US and its trade partners are failing to yield any significant breakthrough, and Trump has complained about the difficulties of cutting a deal with China’s President, Xi, revealing that the world’s two major economies are far from reaching a trade agreement.XAG/USD is showing an ascending triangle patternThe technical picture shows a bullish structure in place, from mid-May lows at $31.75, with price action testing the top of an ascending triangle pattern, which points to an eventual bullish outcome.
Prices are about to test the top of the triangle, at the lower limit of the $34.60-34-80 resistance area, which has been holding the pair over the last few days. Above here, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension awaits at the $36.10 area.
On the downside, a breach of $34.00 would invalidate this view, and add pressure towards the previous top, at $33.65 ahead of the $32.70 level.XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart
Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
11:01 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.2%) in April
Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.2%) in April
11:00 Pound Sterling edges higher on continued US Dollar weakness
The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits strength above 1.3550 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly while the US Dollar struggles to gain ground after a sharp sell-off on Wednesday.
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The GBP/USD pair trades firmly while the US Dollar struggles to gain ground after a sharp sell-off on Wednesday. The USD suffers due to a string of disappointing United States (US) economic data for May in the wake of the tariff policy imposed by US President Donald Trump after returning to the White House.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles near the six-week low around 98.60 posted on Tuesday.On Wednesday, the US ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector hired 37K fresh workers, surprisingly lower than 60K in April and missing the market expectation of 115K by a wide margin. This was the lowest reading since January 2021, raising concerns about labor market stability. Additionally, an unexpected decline in service sector activity prompted the risk of an economic contraction, given that the service sector accounts for two-thirds of the overall economic activity in the US. This week, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for May also showed that the factory sector activity declined at a faster pace. The overall contraction in business activity reflects the consequences of tariff uncertainty driven by the ever-changing statements from US President Trump. The “stop and go” announcements on the tariff policy by Washington have forced domestic manufacturers to hold their strategic developments and expansion plans.This week, Donald Trump doubled import duties on steel and aluminum to 50%, aiming to boost domestic steel production. However, market experts have warned that this could lead to an increase in inflation, a move that would discourage the Federal Reserve (Fed) from lowering interest rates.On Wednesday, President Trump reiterated his criticism of the Fed after the release of the poor ADP Employment data in a post on Truth Social for not lowering interest rates. “ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES," Trump wrote.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling steadies as BoE’s Bailey reaffirms gradual monetary easing approachThe Pound Sterling shows strength against its major peers on Thursday in a light United Kingdom (UK) economic calendar week. The major triggers for the British currency in the remaining week will be market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook and trade discussions between the US and China.This month, the BoE is unlikely to lower interest rates again, given escalating inflationary pressures and stable labor market conditions. Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reaffirms a “gradual and careful” monetary expansion approach amid uncertainty over the global economic front.Andrew Bailey said before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on Tuesday, "I think the path remains downwards, but how far and how quickly is now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty," Reuters reported.The uncertainty over trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing is also expected to keep the UK economy under pressure. Given that China enjoys a low-cost competitive advantage across the globe, UK business owners would face the heat of a price war in the international market if the world’s two largest nations fail to close a trade deal.On Wednesday, US President Trump signaled in a post on Truth Social that it is difficult to make a deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. "I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!" Trump wrote. However, market experts are slightly optimistic on the US and China closing a trade deal as Trump’s post indicated that he has started direct conversations with President Xi.This week, the US NFP data will be a key trigger for the GBP/USD pair, which is scheduled to be released on Friday.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling wobbles around 1.3550The Pound Sterling trades back-and-forth around 1.3550 against the US Dollar on Thursday after an upside move the previous day. The GBP/USD pair holds the key horizontal support plotted from the September 26 high of 1.3434. The outlook for the pair remains firm as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher around 1.3443.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds above 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is intact.On the upside, the January 13, 2022, high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the 20-day EMA will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
11:00 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -2.8% to 3.7% in April
Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) climbed from previous -2.8% to 3.7% in April
10:52 GBP/JPY rises above 194.00 as Japan’s real wages falls in April
GBP/JPY recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 194.30 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross appreciates as the Japanese Yen (JPY) loses ground following the labor market data.
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If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation. How do interest rates impact currencies? Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. How do interest rates influence the price of Gold? Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank.
If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold. What is the Fed Funds rate? The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure.
Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
10:50 EUR/GBP ticks down to near 0.8400 ahead of ECB’s monetary policy decision
The EUR/GBP pair trades slightly lower around 0.8410 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair faces moderate selling pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.
.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}}EUR/GBP edges lower to near 0.8410 ahead of the monetary policy announcement by the ECB.The ECB is almost certain to lower interest rates by 25 bps.The BoE is unlikely to reduce its key borrowing rates in the policy meeting this month.The EUR/GBP pair trades slightly lower around 0.8410 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair faces moderate selling pressure ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.The ECB is all set to reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the seventh consecutive time. This will be the eighth interest rate cut by the ECB since June last year, when it started the monetary expansion cycle.The return of Eurozone inflation to the ECB’s target of 2% and growing concerns over the trading bloc’s economic outlook in the wake of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump have increased investors’ confidence that the central bank will reduce interest rates.Investors would look for cues about whether the ECB will continue lowering its key borrowing rates in the second half of the year through the monetary policy statement and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference after the interest rate decision.In late May, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Greece Yannis Stournaras indicated that he is comfortable with traders’ dovish bets for the policy meeting in June, but anticipates a pause after that. "I expect one more interest rate cut in June and then a pause," Stournaras said, Greek News media reported.On the economic front, German Factory Orders data for April has come in better than projected. Fresh Orders in the manufacturing sector rose moderately by 0.6% on month, compared to a 3.4% increase seen in March, revised lower from 3.6%. However, economists anticipated the data to have declined by 1%.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is being driven by market expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement on June 19 in a light economic calendar week. The BoE is less likely to cut interest rates again due to a significant increase in inflation in April. However, there will be May United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data a day before the BoE’s interest rate decision. Related news European Central Bank set for another interest-rate cut amid questions of how many more will come German Factory Orders rise 0.6% MoM in April vs. -1% expected EUR/USD trades cautiously around 1.1400 ahead of ECB’s interest rate policy
10:39 EUR/USD recovery stalls above 1.1400 ahead of ECB decision
EUR/USD edged lower in a calm Asian session on Thursday and trades right above the 1.1400 level at the time of writing.
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The Euro hesitates as markets brace for an ECB interest rate cut.Weak Eurozone growth and soft inflation figures point to further easing this year.The US Dollar struggles after downbeat US services data.EUR/USD edged lower in a calm Asian session on Thursday and trades right above the 1.1400 level at the time of writing. The US Dollar (USD) was hit by downbeat US macroeconomic data on Wednesday before stalling at 1.1435 and the focus has shifted to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision due later in the day.
The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, and is highly likely to signal a pause in July. The bank’s President Christine Lagarde will try to convey a neutral message, but the Eurozone’s weak economic growth and the moderating inflation point to further easing down the road.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains frail, as downbeat US data has revived fears of an economic recession, amid uncertainty over tariffs and looming concerns about US debt.
The US services sector’s activity contracted against expectations in May, according to the ISM PMI release. This is the first contraction in almost a year and follows another decline in manufacturing activity and poor factory orders seen early this week, which has revived concerns of an economic recession.
Beyond that, US ADP figures revealed a shorter-than-expected increase in employment, dampening enthusiasm about the upbeat job openings seen on Tuesday and casting doubts about Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Wednesday’s data soured market sentiment and triggered a significant reversal on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% -0.08% 0.32% -0.08% -0.21% -0.09% 0.14% EUR -0.02% -0.05% 0.29% -0.08% -0.22% -0.18% 0.14% GBP 0.08% 0.05% 0.39% -0.03% -0.15% -0.13% 0.19% JPY -0.32% -0.29% -0.39% -0.42% -0.57% -0.50% -0.18% CAD 0.08% 0.08% 0.03% 0.42% -0.16% -0.10% 0.22% AUD 0.21% 0.22% 0.15% 0.57% 0.16% 0.02% 0.35% NZD 0.09% 0.18% 0.13% 0.50% 0.10% -0.02% 0.34% CHF -0.14% -0.14% -0.19% 0.18% -0.22% -0.35% -0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Euro hesitates ahead of the ECB decisionThe Euro is trading sideways, right above the 1.1400 level, buoyed by a US Dollar on the back foot. Investors, however, are wary of placing large Euro bets, awaiting the ECB monetary policy decision and further insight into the next steps.
The ECB will, most likely, cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 2% level. The main attraction of the event will be President Lagarde’s press conference, from which markets are expected to draw some fresh cues into the central bank’s plans.
Lagarde will stick to the “meeting by meeting” line, but recent Eurozone data has shown a frail economic growth and cooling inflationary pressures, which suggest that the ECB might cut rates further later this year to support economic activity.
In the US, ISM Services PMI fell against expectations and soured market sentiment. May’s PMI declined to 49.9 from April’s 51.6, against market expectations of a 52.00 level. Prices paid increased, and the employment subindex expanded after having contracted in the previous months.
The negative impact of the PMI was heightened by a downbeat ADP Employment Change report, which showed a 37K increase in May’s private payrolls, well below the 115K rise anticipated by the market consensus.
Beyond that, trade uncertainty remains high. US President Donald Trump’s 50% levies on Steel and Aluminum came into effect on Wednesday amid a lack of progress on any significant trade deal. He complained that it is “extremely hard to make a deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which confirms that the world’s major economies are far from solving their trade issues.Technical analysis: EUR/USD wavers around 1.1400 lacking a clear biasEUR/USD reversal from the six-week highs hit on Tuesday has been contained at the mid-range of the 1.1300s, but the pair has lost momentum above 1.1400 with investors looking from the sidelines, a few hours ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision.
The four-hour chart RSI is turning flat near the 50 level, suggesting that the pair’s bullish momentum is ebbing. The lower high on Wednesday, despite the weak US data, is a negative sign.
The pair would need to breach 1.1460 to confirm the bullish trend and aim to 1.1545, where the April 22 high and the trendline resistance meet. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
The Euro hesitates as markets brace for an ECB interest rate cut.Weak Eurozone growth and soft inflation figures point to further easing this year.The US Dollar struggles after downbeat US services data.EUR/USD edged lower in a calm Asian session on Thursday and trades right above the 1.1400 level at the time of writing. The US Dollar (USD) was hit by downbeat US macroeconomic data on Wednesday before stalling at 1.1435 and the focus has shifted to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision due later in the day.
The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, and is highly likely to signal a pause in July. The bank’s President Christine Lagarde will try to convey a neutral message, but the Eurozone’s weak economic growth and the moderating inflation point to further easing down the road.
The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains frail, as downbeat US data has revived fears of an economic recession, amid uncertainty over tariffs and looming concerns about US debt.
The US services sector’s activity contracted against expectations in May, according to the ISM PMI release. This is the first contraction in almost a year and follows another decline in manufacturing activity and poor factory orders seen early this week, which has revived concerns of an economic recession.
Beyond that, US ADP figures revealed a shorter-than-expected increase in employment, dampening enthusiasm about the upbeat job openings seen on Tuesday and casting doubts about Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report. Wednesday’s data soured market sentiment and triggered a significant reversal on the US Dollar Index (DXY). Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% -0.08% 0.32% -0.08% -0.21% -0.09% 0.14% EUR -0.02% -0.05% 0.29% -0.08% -0.22% -0.18% 0.14% GBP 0.08% 0.05% 0.39% -0.03% -0.15% -0.13% 0.19% JPY -0.32% -0.29% -0.39% -0.42% -0.57% -0.50% -0.18% CAD 0.08% 0.08% 0.03% 0.42% -0.16% -0.10% 0.22% AUD 0.21% 0.22% 0.15% 0.57% 0.16% 0.02% 0.35% NZD 0.09% 0.18% 0.13% 0.50% 0.10% -0.02% 0.34% CHF -0.14% -0.14% -0.19% 0.18% -0.22% -0.35% -0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: Euro hesitates ahead of the ECB decisionThe Euro is trading sideways, right above the 1.1400 level, buoyed by a US Dollar on the back foot. Investors, however, are wary of placing large Euro bets, awaiting the ECB monetary policy decision and further insight into the next steps.
The ECB will, most likely, cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a 2% level. The main attraction of the event will be President Lagarde’s press conference, from which markets are expected to draw some fresh cues into the central bank’s plans.
Lagarde will stick to the “meeting by meeting” line, but recent Eurozone data has shown a frail economic growth and cooling inflationary pressures, which suggest that the ECB might cut rates further later this year to support economic activity.
In the US, ISM Services PMI fell against expectations and soured market sentiment. May’s PMI declined to 49.9 from April’s 51.6, against market expectations of a 52.00 level. Prices paid increased, and the employment subindex expanded after having contracted in the previous months.
The negative impact of the PMI was heightened by a downbeat ADP Employment Change report, which showed a 37K increase in May’s private payrolls, well below the 115K rise anticipated by the market consensus.
Beyond that, trade uncertainty remains high. US President Donald Trump’s 50% levies on Steel and Aluminum came into effect on Wednesday amid a lack of progress on any significant trade deal. He complained that it is “extremely hard to make a deal” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which confirms that the world’s major economies are far from solving their trade issues.Technical analysis: EUR/USD wavers around 1.1400 lacking a clear biasEUR/USD reversal from the six-week highs hit on Tuesday has been contained at the mid-range of the 1.1300s, but the pair has lost momentum above 1.1400 with investors looking from the sidelines, a few hours ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision.
The four-hour chart RSI is turning flat near the 50 level, suggesting that the pair’s bullish momentum is ebbing. The lower high on Wednesday, despite the weak US data, is a negative sign.
The pair would need to breach 1.1460 to confirm the bullish trend and aim to 1.1545, where the April 22 high and the trendline resistance meet. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
10:19 WTI Price Forecast: Recovery halts at $63.00 amid fears of an Oil glut
Crude prices have been capped again at the $63.00 area, before dropping to levels right above $62.00 at the time of writing.
U.S. Gasoline stocks increased beyond expectations last week.Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ countries to hike output again in August.WTI Oil prices remain contained within a $60.00 to $63.00 range. Crude prices have been capped again at the $63.00 area, before dropping to levels right above $62.00 at the time of writing. A larger-than-expected increase in US gasoline supplies, ongoing global trade uncertainty, and news that OPEC is considering another supply hike have revived fears about an oversupply.
The recovery from the psychological $60.00 level was hit on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline stocks surged by 5.2 million barrels in the last week of May, against market expectations of a 600,00 rise.OPEC+ countries plan another supply hikeBeyond that, Saudi Arabia revealed that they are pressuring the OPEC+ group to hike output further in the coming months, attempting to gain market share. The Saudis are pursuing another 411,000 bpd increase in August, following an identical hike in July.
This news, coupled with the ongoing global trade uncertainty. which is expected to weigh on future demand for crude, has revived fears of an oil glut, and is keeping crude prices on their back foot on Thursday.çTechnical analysis: Sideways movement between $60.00 and $63.00The technical picture shows choppy and volatile trading between the $60.00 level and $63.30 on the upside.
From a wider perspective, a potential double bottom at the 55.00 area suggests the possibility of a deeper recovery, but prices should break the $64.65 neckline to confirm that scenario.
On the downside, supports are at the $61.55 intra-day low and the mentioned $60.00 area.WTI OIL 4-Hour Chart
The recovery from the psychological $60.00 level was hit on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration reported that gasoline stocks surged by 5.2 million barrels in the last week of May, against market expectations of a 600,00 rise.OPEC+ countries plan another supply hikeBeyond that, Saudi Arabia revealed that they are pressuring the OPEC+ group to hike output further in the coming months, attempting to gain market share. The Saudis are pursuing another 411,000 bpd increase in August, following an identical hike in July.
This news, coupled with the ongoing global trade uncertainty. which is expected to weigh on future demand for crude, has revived fears of an oil glut, and is keeping crude prices on their back foot on Thursday.çTechnical analysis: Sideways movement between $60.00 and $63.00The technical picture shows choppy and volatile trading between the $60.00 level and $63.30 on the upside.
From a wider perspective, a potential double bottom at the 55.00 area suggests the possibility of a deeper recovery, but prices should break the $64.65 neckline to confirm that scenario.
On the downside, supports are at the $61.55 intra-day low and the mentioned $60.00 area.WTI OIL 4-Hour Chart
10:10 USD/CAD languishes near YTD low, seems vulnerable around 1.3670-1.3665 region
The USD/CAD pair extends its bearish consolidative price action heading into the European session on Thursday and currently trades around the 1.3670-1.3665 area, just above the lowest level since October 2024 touched the previous day.
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Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside. Reports that a trade deal between the US and Canada could happen before the G7 Summit on June 15, along with the Bank of Canada's (BoC) decision to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday, might continue to underpin the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Adding to this, a modest uptick in Crude Oil prices could benefit the commodity-linked Loonie and validate the negative outlook for the USD/CAD pair amid the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD). Traders lifted bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at the September policy meeting following Wednesday's weaker-than-expected US economic releases. This led to the overnight slide in the rate-sensitive two-year and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields to the lowest level since May 9. Furthermore, concerns about the worsening US fiscal conditions and persistent trade-related uncertainties should contribute to capping any meaningful USD appreciation. The aforementioned negative factors suggest that any attempted recovery could be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped. Traders now look to the release of US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should produce short-term opportunities around the USD/CAD pair in the run-up to the crucial monthly employment details from the US and Canada. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
10:02 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.4% to -0.3% in May
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM) rose from previous -0.4% to -0.3% in May
10:02 Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) increased to -0.5% in May from previous -1%
Austria Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY) increased to -0.5% in May from previous -1%
10:00 Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) registered at 2.9% above expectations (2.8%) in May
Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) registered at 2.9% above expectations (2.8%) in May
10:00 Forex Today: ECB rate decision and US data to ramp up volatility
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 5:
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Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 5:Major currency pairs fluctuate within their weekly ranges early Thursday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions and the US economic calendar will offer Challenger Job Cuts data for May, weekly Initial Jobless Claims reading, alongside the Goods Trade Balance figures for April. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on the outlook and respond to questions in the post-meeting press conference. Finally, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches in the second half of the day. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.54% -0.62% -0.43% -0.48% -0.91% -1.13% -0.46% EUR 0.54% -0.08% 0.11% 0.05% -0.36% -0.63% 0.08% GBP 0.62% 0.08% 0.21% 0.13% -0.28% -0.54% 0.16% JPY 0.43% -0.11% -0.21% -0.05% -0.45% -0.71% -0.09% CAD 0.48% -0.05% -0.13% 0.05% -0.41% -0.68% 0.03% AUD 0.91% 0.36% 0.28% 0.45% 0.41% -0.20% 0.52% NZD 1.13% 0.63% 0.54% 0.71% 0.68% 0.20% 0.71% CHF 0.46% -0.08% -0.16% 0.09% -0.03% -0.52% -0.71% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure following disappointing macroeconomic data releases on Wednesday. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that employment in the private sector rose by 37,000 in May, missing the market expectation of 115,000 by a wide margin. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May from 51.6 in April. The USD Index fell more than 0.4% on Wednesday before entering a consolidation phase at around 99.00 early Thursday. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally lower after Wall Street's main indexes closed mixed.The data from Germany showed early Thursday that Factory Orders grew by 0.6% on a monthly basis in April. This print followed the 3.4% increase reported in March and came in better than the market expectation for a decrease of 1%. The ECB is widely expected to lower key rates by 25 basis points (bps) following the June meeting. Alongside the policy statement, the ECB will also release the updated staff projections. EUR/USD holds steady above 1.1400 in the European morning on Thursday.GBP/USD benefited from the selling pressure surrounding the USD and closed in positive territory on Wednesday. The pair fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.3550 early Thursday.USD/JPY declined sharply and lost nearly 0.9% on Wednesday. The pair corrects higher and trades above 143.00 to begin the European session.AUD/USD holds steady at around 0.6500 after rising nearly 0.5% on Wednesday. The data from China showed earlier in the day that the Caixin Services PMI improved to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in April.Gold continues to trade in a narrow band above $3,350 after posting small gains on Wednesday. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
10:00 European Central Bank set for another interest-rate cut amid questions of how many more will come
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to reduce key interest rates for the seventh time in a row. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank is set to deliver another 25 bps cut to key rates on Thursday.The ECB’s updated staff projections and President Christine Lagarde’s presser will be closely scrutinized.The EUR/USD pair could move sharply depending on the ECB policy announcements.The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to reduce key interest rates for the seventh time in a row. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.The interest rate decision will be accompanied by the quarterly staff projections about inflation and growth, while ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will follow at 12:45 GMT.The Euro (EUR) could experience intense volatility on the ECB announcements against the US Dollar (USD).What to expect from the European Central Bank interest rate decision?The ECB is expected to lower the benchmark rate on the deposit facility by another 25 basis points (bps) to 2% from 2.25%, following the conclusion of the June monetary policy meeting.The main reason behind the rate cut is the decline in inflation towards the ECB’s 2% target. Data released by Eurostat showed that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Eurozone rose 1.9% year-over-year (YoY) in May, after increasing by 2.2% in April. Additionally, the annual core HICP inflation dipped to 2.3% from 2.7% in the same period.Still, a bunch of ECB policymakers considered hawks have been vocal last month about their preference for a rate cut pause, given the heightened uncertainty on the economic outlook amid the US-EU trade war.ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann said that “the ECB should pause further interest rate cuts until at least September.” Board member Isabel Schnabel warned of “new shocks posing new challenges” even as disinflation remains on track. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel argued: “Given the continuing high level of uncertainty, we should therefore remain cautious in monetary policy."On the trade front, US President Donald Trump threatened on May 23 to impose 50% tariffs on European Union (EU) goods, complaining that the 27-member bloc had been "very difficult to deal with" on trade and that negotiations were "going nowhere." Those tariffs would have kicked in starting June 1.A couple of days later, Trump said that the United States (US) will delay the implementation of a 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1 until July 9 to buy time for negotiations.Last Friday, US President announced the doubling down of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50% from 25%. The measure, which would hit Europe hard, is supposed to take effect from June 4.Amidst lingering uncertainty over the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the old continent’s economic activity and the continued progress in disinflation, the ECB policy statement, quarterly inflation and growth forecasts and President Christine Lagarde’s speech will be closely scrutinized for fresh hints on the central bank’s next interest rate move.Previewing the ECB’s April meeting, TD Securities analysts said: “We expect a 25 bps cut, with markets and consensus converging on the same. Projections are likely to be lowered for growth and inflation due to global trade policy developments since March.”“However, citing resilience in the economy and convergence on the inflation target, this cut is likely to be paired with a hawkish tilt in language, suggesting a pause in July,” analysts noted.How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?EUR/USD has maintained its bullish momentum so far this year, courtesy of the US Dollar’s underperformance (USD) on growing fears over an economic downturn, likely driven by Trump’s tariff war.Heading into the ECB showdown, the main currency pair is losing traction due to the renewed buying interest seen around the USD.Odds of more rate cuts in the future would ramp up in case President Lagarde or the quarterly forecasts suggest that disinflation remains on track despite the tariff-related uncertainty. In this scenario, EUR/USD could extend its correction from six-week highs. If Lagarde voices concerns about the economic outlook, it could reaffirm this dovish view.Conversely, the Euro could resume its uptrend against the USD if the ECB indicates potential upside risks to inflation and Lagarde suggests prudence ahead in order to assess the tariff impact, fanning expectations of a pause in its easing cycle.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:“EUR/USD holds well above all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stays firm near 56, suggesting that upside risks remain intact for the pair.”“On the upside, the immediate resistance aligns at the six-week high of 1.1456, above which the 1.1500 round level will be tested. The April 21 high of 1.1574 will be next on buyers’ radars. Alternatively, healthy supports could be spotted at the 21-day SMA of 1.1285, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1220 and the 1.1150 psychological barrier,” Dhwani added. Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Jun 05, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2.25% Source: European Central Bank Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
09:43 EUR/GBP holds steady below 0.8450 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/GBP cross trades on a flat note near 0.8420 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision later on Thursday.
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The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
09:03 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.07 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $62.16.
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $62.07 per barrel, down from Wednesday’s close at $62.16.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $64.58 after its previous daily close at $64.67. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY): 4.8% (April) vs 3.8%
09:01 German Factory Orders rise 0.6% MoM in April vs. -1% expected
Germany's Factory Orders unexpectedly rose in April, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector sustained its recovery, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday.
Germany's Factory Orders unexpectedly rose in April, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector sustained its recovery, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday.Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ ticked up 0.6% in April after rebounding by 3.6% in March. Data beat the estimates of -1%.
09:01 Sweden Current Account (QoQ): 119.3B (1Q) vs 111.9B
Sweden Current Account (QoQ): 119.3B (1Q) vs 111.9B
09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.6%, above expectations (-1%) in April
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.6%, above expectations (-1%) in April
08:58 GBP/USD remains below 1.3550 as US Dollar recovers ground, signals a technical correction
GBP/USD retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 1.3550 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amid a technical correction.
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Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
08:35 AUD/JPY steadily climbs back closer to 93.00 mark amid a broadly weaker JPY
The AUD/JPY cross attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's retracement slide from the 93.60 area, or the weekly high.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/JPY regains positive traction, though it remains confined in a familiar range.The Aussie bulls reacted little to China’s Services PMI, which rose to 51.1 in May.The divergent BoJ-RBA policy outlooks should contribute to capping spot prices.The AUD/JPY cross attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's retracement slide from the 93.60 area, or the weekly high. Spot prices move little following the release of Chinese data and currently trade around the 92.85-92.90 region, up 0.20% for the day.In fact, a private survey showed that China's services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in May, with the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inching higher to 51.1 from 50.7 in April. The data matched consensus estimates and failed to provide any meaningful impetus to the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). However, hopes for potential talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping continue to act as a tailwind for the Aussie, lending some support to the AUD/JPY cross.Meanwhile, a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick exerts some downward pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY), which contributes to the intraday move higher. However, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates holds back the JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. The bets were reaffirmed by data showing that Japan's real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month in April amid stubborn inflation. This, along with geopolitical risks, should limit JPY losses and cap the AUD/JPY cross. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish tilt should contribute to keeping a lid on the AUD. Even from a technical perspective, the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past two weeks or so warrants some caution before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, a sustained move and a daily close above the 93.00 round figure is needed to back the case for any further near-term appreciating move amid persistent trade-related uncertainties and US-China trade war fears. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
08:18 USD/CHF wobbles near six-week low around 0.8200, US NFP in focus
The USD/CHF pair trades with caution near the six-week low around 0.8200 during late Asian trading hours on Thursday.
.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF trades cautiously around 0.8200, while investors await key US NFP data for May.Disappointing US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI data for May have battered the US Dollar.The Swiss CPI deflated by 0.1% in May, paving the way for more interest rate cuts from the SNB.The USD/CHF pair trades with caution near the six-week low around 0.8200 during late Asian trading hours on Thursday. Investors brace for significant volatility in the pair as the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data takes centre stage, which will reflect the current status of the labor market.The US Dollar (USD) fell sharply on Wednesday after the release of a string of disappointing US economic data for May, notably a sharp slowdown in the private sector labor demand. The ADP Employment Change data showed that the private sector added 37K fresh workers, the lowest reading seen since the Covid era in February 2021.Additionally, weak Services PMI and rising input costs in the services sector, which accounts for the two-third of the overall economic activity, have prompted stagflation risks. According to the US ISM Services PMI report, activities in the sector unexpectedly declined, and the sub-component Prices Paid grew at a faster pace. The scenario of rising input costs and contraction in business activity often leads to stagflation.On the trade front, investors seek fresh cues on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. On Wednesday, the comments from US President Donald Trump in a post on Truth.Social signaled that trade negotiations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping won’t be easy. "I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!" Trump wrote.In the Swiss region, the scenario of deflation has raised expectations of an interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the monetary policy meeting on June 19. On Tuesday, the data showed that the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) deflated by 0.1% on year, as expected, in May after remaining flat in April.SNB President Martin Schlegel already warned in an event in Basel in the last week of May that Swiss inflation could enter negative territory, Reuters reported. However, he ruled out expectations that short-term inflation hiccups could lead to monetary policy adjustments, stating that the central bank is more focused on maintaining price stability in the medium term."Even negative inflation figures cannot be ruled out in the coming months," Schlegel said and added, "The SNB does not necessarily have to react to this.” US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
08:16 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Retains bullish bias above 163.00
The EUR/JPY cross edges higher to around 163.15 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the Euro (EUR) amid the expectation that the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not come soon.
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Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
EUR/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
EUR/JPY daily chart
08:00 Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0.3% in April from previous -2.8%
Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0.3% in April from previous -2.8%
08:00 Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 1.1% to 0.3% in April
Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 1.1% to 0.3% in April
07:56 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady near 0.6030; moves little after Chinese PMI
The NZD/USD pair trades with a positive bias for the second straight day, though it remains below the 0.6050 level through the Asian session on Thursday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.
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Spot prices hold steady around the 0.6030 region and move little following the release of China's Caixin Services PMI, which rose to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in the previous month.From a technical perspective, the recent move up along a multi-week-old ascending channel points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Moreover, oscillators on hourly/daily charts are holding comfortably in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside.However, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 0.6050 hurdle – representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024-April 2025 downfall – before positioning for additional gains. The subsequent move up could lift the NZD/USD pair to the ascending channel resistance, around the 0.6080 area, en route to the 0.6100 round figure. On the flip side, dips below the 0.6000 psychological mark might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the lower boundary of the aforementioned trend channel, currently pegged around the 0.5955-0.5950 region. The latter coincides with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should act as a pivotal point for the NZD/USD pair.A convincing break below will negate the near-term positive outlook and prompt aggressive selling, paving the way for some meaningful corrective decline from the year-to-date touched on Tuesday.NZD/USD 4-hour chart Economic Indicator Caixin Services PMI The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at both private-sector and state-owned companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY. Read more. Last release: Thu Jun 05, 2025 01:45 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 51.1 Consensus: 51.1 Previous: 50.7 Source: IHS Markit
07:41 USD/MXN Price Forecast: Finds resistance around 19.20 ahead of nine-day EMA
USD/MXN inches higher after registering losses in the previous session, trading around 19.20 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggests a prevailing bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern.
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The daily chart’s technical analysis suggests a prevailing bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern.The USD/MXN remains below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating weaker short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned below the 50 level, indicating a strengthening bearish bias.On the downside, the USD/MXN could target the eight-month low of 19.16, which was recorded on June 4. A break below this level could prompt the pair to navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel pattern at 18.55.The nine-day EMA at 19.27 appears as the initial barrier, followed by the descending channel’s upper boundary around 19.40. A break above this crucial resistance zone would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the USD/MXN pair to test the 50-day EMA at 19.62.A break above the 50-day EMA would improve the medium-term price momentum and prompt the USD/MXN pair to target the seven-week high at 19.78, which was marked on May 6.USD/MXN: Daily Chart Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
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Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,297.71 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,313.37 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 108,443.00 per tola from INR 108,629.30 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,297.71 10 Grams 92,974.23 Tola 108,443.00 Troy Ounce 289,191.40
2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast
Gold daily market movers: XAU/USD soars as US Treasury yields plummet, weighing on the US Dollar
Gold price rallies as the US Dollar dives. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.44% down to 98.81.
US Treasury bond yields are falling. The US 10-year Treasury yield plunges 7.5 basis points to 4.383%. US real yields have followed suit and are also down by the same amount at 2.063%, a tailwind for Bullion prices.
The ADP National Employment Change figures for May rose by 37K, missing estimates of 110K and below the previous month’s revised 60K print.
The ISM Services PMI tumbled from 51.6 in April to 49.9 in May, below forecast of 52.0.
Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 54 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold?
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold?
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets?
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on?
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
07:35 FX option expiries for Jun 5 NY cut
FX option expiries for Jun 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.
FX option expiries for Jun 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time vi a DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1200 1.4b1.1300 3.8b1.1330 1.1b1.1380 1.3b1.1400 3b1.1425 1.4b1.1475 1.2b1.1500 2.3b1.1550 1.5b1.1600 1.6bUSD/JPY: USD amounts 142.00 1.6b143.00 1.6b145.00 1.3bUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8100 1.1b0.8200 1.3b0.8220 618mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6490 1.4b0.6495 858mUSD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3600 580mNZD/USD: NZD amounts0.5990 440m
07:31 Gold price struggles to lure buyers; remains below multi-week high touched on Tuesday
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower following an Asian session uptick to the $3,384 area amid a slight US Dollar (USD) bounce, though the near-term bias seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders.
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A modest USD uptick caps the commodity, though a combination of factors helps limit the downside. Fed rate cut bets, US fiscal concerns, geopolitical risks, and trade uncertainties favor the XAU/USD bulls.Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower following an Asian session uptick to the $3,384 area amid a slight US Dollar (USD) bounce, though the near-term bias seems tilted firmly in favor of bullish traders. Weaker-than-expected US economic data released on Wednesday boosted market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed, which, along with US fiscal concerns, should cap the USD and lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, persistent trade-related uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions validate the near-term positive outlook for the safe-haven Gold price. Investors, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the high-stakes call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Moreover, volatility is expected to remain suppressed ahead of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, which might further hold back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the precious metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls seem reluctant ahead of potential Trump-Xi callAutomatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that US private sector employers added only 37K jobs in May, below consensus estimates and marking the lowest level since March 2023. Adding to this, April's reading was revised to 60K from 62K reported originally. Furthermore, a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that business activity in the US services sector unexpectedly contracted in May for the first time since June 2024. In fact, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 49.9 last month from 51.6 in April. The rate-sensitive two-year and the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields fell to the lowest level since May 9 amid bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Moreover, US President Donald Trump pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates.Dovish Fed expectations, along with concerns that the US budget deficit could worsen at a faster pace than expected on the back of Trump’s flagship tax and spending bill, fail to assist the US Dollar in attracting buyers. This lends some support to the non-yielding Gold price. The increase in steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% came into effect on Wednesday. This comes ahead of the high-stakes call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and amid renewed fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies.Trump said that he had spoken again to Russian President Vladimir Putin and that the Kremlin leader vowed to retaliate against the Ukrainian attack Russian bombers. Trump added that a Ukraine ceasefire remained distant, which keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play.The US vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza for the fifth time. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes across Gaza have killed nearly 100 Palestinians in the past 24 hours amid a humanitarian aid blockade.Traders now look forward to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members could provide some impetus in the run-up to the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Gold price technical setup point to move beyond $3,385 resistanceFrom a technical perspective, this week's breakout above the $3,324-3,326 barrier was seen as a key trigger for bulls. Moreover, oscillators on daily/hourly charts are holding comfortably in positive territory and suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. However, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying above the $3,385 region, or a multi-week top touched on Tuesday, before positioning for further gains. The XAU/USD pair might then surpass the $3,400 mark and climb further to the $3,433-3,435 region. The momentum could extend further toward the $3,500 neighborhood or the all-time peak set in April. On the flip side, the $3,355 area could offer immediate support to the Gold price. Any further slide might continue to attract some dip-buyers and is more likely to remain limited near the aforementioned resistance breakpoint, around the $3,326-3,324 area. Some follow-through selling, however, could make the commodity vulnerable to weakening further below the $3,300 mark and testing the $3,286-3,285 horizontal support. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
07:22 USD/CAD Price Forecast: More downside towards 1.3600 looks likely
The USD/CAD pair appears vulnerable near an over eight-month low, slightly above 1.3650 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Loonie pair stays under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains on backfoot amid renewed United States (US) stagflation risks and trade uncertainty.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD trades vulnerably near 1.3650 as the US Dollar sees more downside on disappointing an array of US economic data.US-China trade uncertainty also keeps the USD on the backfoot.The BoC kept interest rates steady at 2.75% on Wednesday, as expected.The USD/CAD pair appears vulnerable near an over eight-month low, slightly above 1.3650 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Loonie pair stays under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains on backfoot amid renewed United States (US) stagflation risks and trade uncertainty.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously near the six-week low around 98.60.On Thursday, disappointing private sector employment and ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) data for May exhibited softening labor demand, declining service sector activity, and rising input costs, a scenario that typically pushes the economy into a stagflation.Meanwhile, trade uncertainty between the US and China has escalated after President Donald Trump signaled in a post on Truth.Social that negotiations with XI Jinping are a hard nut to crack.In the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to hold interest rates steady at 2.75% and its discouraging comments on any near-term monetary policy adjustments have strengthened the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The BoC left its key borrowing rates steady at 2.75% on Wednesday, as expected. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.06% 0.06% 0.14% -0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.06% EUR -0.06% 0.05% 0.10% -0.03% -0.04% -0.07% 0.03% GBP -0.06% -0.05% 0.08% -0.09% -0.07% -0.13% -0.03% JPY -0.14% -0.10% -0.08% -0.15% -0.18% -0.19% -0.08% CAD 0.00% 0.03% 0.09% 0.15% -0.02% -0.04% 0.06% AUD -0.01% 0.04% 0.07% 0.18% 0.02% -0.06% 0.05% NZD -0.05% 0.07% 0.13% 0.19% 0.04% 0.06% 0.12% CHF -0.06% -0.03% 0.03% 0.08% -0.06% -0.05% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
USD/CAD has retraced over 78.6% of the swing plotted from the late September low around 1.3400 to the early February high near 1.4800. Typically, a retracement over 61.8% accelerates the downside move to the end of the swing.Declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3800 reflects that the near-term trend is bearish.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 33.00, indicating a strong bearish momentum.More downside in the pair looks likely below Wednesday’s low of 1.3650, which would drag it towards the round level of 1.3600 and the psychological figure of 1.3500.In an alternate scenario, a recovery move above the May 29 high of 1.3820 would turn the near-term trend bullish and open the door towards the May 21 high of 1.3920, followed by the May 15 high of 1.4000.USD/CAD daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
06:19 EUR/USD trades cautiously around 1.1400 ahead of ECB’s interest rate policy
The EUR/USD pair trades with caution, slightly above the key level of 1.1400 during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair is expected to remain sideways, with investors awaiting the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision announcement at 12:15 GMT.
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The major currency pair is expected to remain sideways, with investors awaiting the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision announcement at 12:15 GMT.The ECB is almost certain to reduce its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps), a move that will lower the Deposit Facility Rate and Main Refinancing Operations Rate to 2% and 2.15%, respectively. This will be the seventh consecutive interest rate cut by the ECB and the eighth since June last year, when it initiated its monetary expansion cycle.Traders are increasingly confident about a seventh consecutive ECB interest rate cut as the disinflation trend in the Eurozone is intact. Preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data showed on Tuesday that inflationary pressures fell below the central bank’s target of 2%.As the Fed is widely anticipated to lower interest rates, investors will pay close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference to get cues about the likely monetary policy stance for the second half of the year. Market participants would also like to know the status of trade negotiations with the United States (US).Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to hold ground near the six-week low as weak US data has renewed stagflation risks. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data unexpectedly declined in May, while its sub-components indicated that input costs continued to expand at a faster pace. The ADP Employment Change data, which reflects labor demand in the private sector, showed the addition of fresh 37K workers in May, the lowest reading seen since February 2021.US President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve (Fed) again for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance after weak private employment data.Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Jun 05, 2025 12:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2.25% Source: European Central Bank
06:11 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD maintains position around $34.50 due to safe-haven demand
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher after registering losses in the previous two successive sessions, trading around $34.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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Prices of the precious metals, including Silver, receive support from safe-haven flows amid growing global economic and political uncertainty.The non-yielding assets like Silver receive support after the release of soft economic data from the United States (US), which reinforced the odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates at least twice in 2025.Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.Traders will likely observe the US Balance of Trade and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims later in the North American session. Focus will shift toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls to gain further insights into the Fed’s policy outlook.US President Donald Trump called upon, in a post published on Truth Social on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to lower the policy rate. "ADP NUMBER OUT!!! “Too Late” Powell must now LOWER THE RATE. He is unbelievable!!! Europe has lowered NINE TIMES," Trump said.On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the labor market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, persistent uncertainty prevails over the economy, and the Fed must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
05:47 USD/INR flat lines amid US Dollar demand, equity outflow
The Indian Rupee (INR) holds steady on Thursday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand from foreign banks and oil companies could exert some selling pressure on the Indian currency.
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Rising US Dollar demand and foreign equity outflows could weigh on the INR. The US Balance of Trade and weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due later on Thursday.The Indian Rupee (INR) holds steady on Thursday. The renewed US Dollar (USD) demand from foreign banks and oil companies could exert some selling pressure on the Indian currency. Additionally, foreign equity outflows and squaring of offshore non-deliverable forwards (NDF) positions ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy review on Friday could also undermine the INR. Nonetheless, concerns over US President Donald Trump's erratic tariff policy and a ballooning fiscal deficit after the House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax cut and spending bill could drag the Greenback lower and provide some support to the local currency. Investors will keep an eye on the US Balance of Trade and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which will be published later on Thursday. The RBI interest rate decision will take center stage on Friday. The Indian central bank is anticipated to deliver a third straight 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at its June meeting. On the US docket, the US May employment report will be closely monitored. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show job growth of 130K in May, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2% in the same report period.Indian Rupee steadies as traders await the India/US key eventsAccording to a Reuters poll of foreign currency strategists, the Indian rupee is likely to make small gains this year, underperforming the majority of its Asian counterparts as the US Dollar retreats. The INR has barely made any advances against the USD this year, placing it among the worst performers in Asia. It has not received much support from reports of unexpectedly strong growth in the last quarter. India’s HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eased to 59.3 in May from 61.2 in April. Meanwhile, the Services PMI dropped to 58.8 in May. This reading came in lower than the previous reading and the expectation of 61.2. “India registered a 58.8 services PMI in May 2025, broadly in line with the steady readings from recent months. Strong international demand continued to fuel services activity, as evidenced by the new export business index’s uptick from April,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC.The US Services PMI declined to 49.9 versus 51.6 prior, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday. This reading came in below the market consensus of 52.0.US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, compared to a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, missing the market expectation of 115,000.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said late Wednesday that the labour market is showing some signs of slowing down. Kashkari added that the central bank must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.USD/INR resumes its upside above the key 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades on a flat note on the day. The USD/INR pair resumes its upside, with the price crossing above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 57.60, suggesting bullish vibes stay in play in the near term. The immediate resistance level for USD/INR is seen at 86.00, representing the psychological level and the high of June 4. Sustained trading above this level could pave the way to 86.71, the high of April 9, en route to 87.30, the high of March 12. In the bearish event, the first support level is located at 85.30, the low of June 3. A break below the mentioned level could allow the downtrend to resume to 85.04, the low of May 27. The additional downside filter to watch is 84.61, the low of May 12. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
05:43 Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid hawkish BoJ expectations
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against a recovering US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Thursday and stalls the previous day's goodish rebound from the weekly low.
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Bets that the BoJ will hike rates again and safe-haven buying could underpin the JPY.Dovish Fed expectations might cap any meaningful upside for the USD and USD/JPY.The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower against a recovering US Dollar (USD) during the Asian session on Thursday and stalls the previous day's goodish rebound from the weekly low. Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, seems elusive amid the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates. The expectations were reaffirmed by data showing that Japan's real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month in April amid stubborn inflation. Apart from this, the cautious market mood ahead of potential talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, along with trade uncertainties and geopolitical risks, could underpin the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, Wednesday's weaker US data lifted bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs further in 2025. This should cap the upside for the USD and limit losses for the lower-yielding JPY, which, in turn, keeps a lid on the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant despite rising BoJ rate hike betsGovernment data released earlier this Thursday showed that nominal wages increased 2.3% from a year earlier in April, or the fastest pace in four months and up for the 40th consecutive month. However, real wages slumped 1.8% as rising prices continued to outpace pay hikes.The consumer inflation rate that is used to calculate real wages eased slightly to the 4.1% YoY rate during the reported month compared to 4.2% in March, though it stayed above 4% for the fifth month in a row. This backs the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).In contrast, traders lifted bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as soon as September in reaction to Wednesday's weaker-than-expected US macro data. In fact, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that private sector employment in the US rose 37K in May.This was the lowest monthly job count since March 2023 and was accompanied by a downward revision of April's reading to 60K. Adding to this, the survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the US services sector contracted for the first time since June 2024. US President Donald Trump continues to press Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. Moreover, the yields on the rate-sensitive two-year and the benchmark 10-year US government bonds fell to the lowest level since May 9, which weighed heavily on the US Dollar. The lack of follow-through USD selling, however, assists the USD/JPY pair in attracting some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday. Nevertheless, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the currency pair. Traders keenly await the high-stakes call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid renewed trade tensions. It, however, remains unclear if such a call had been arranged. In the meantime, Trump said that it was extremely hard to make a deal with the Chinese leader. This keeps the risk premium associated with a trade war between the world's two largest economies in play. This, along with rising geopolitical tensions, should contribute to limiting losses for the safe-haven JPY and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/JPY pair. Traders now look forward to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members could provide some impetus in the run-up to the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. USD/JPY remains vulnerable while below the 100-period SMA on H4From a technical perspective, the overnight failure near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent fall favors the USD/JPY bears. Moreover, technical indicators on hourly/daily charts are holding in negative territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Hence, any further move up could be seen as a selling opportunity near the 143.70 region and is likely to remain capped near the 144.00 mark. This is followed by the 144.25-144.30 region (100-period SMA on H4). Some follow-through buying beyond the overnight swing high could trigger an intraday short-covering move and allow bulls to reclaim the 145.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, the weekly trough, around the 142.40-142.35 area, could offer some support to the USD/JPY pair ahead of the 142.10 region, or last week's swing low. A convincing break below the latter could make spot prices vulnerable to resume the recent downward trajectory from the May swing high and slide further to the next relevant support near the 141.60 area en route to sub-141.00 levels. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance. Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.
05:26 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Hovers below 99.00 as bearish bias prevails
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding its position after registering losses in the previous session and trading around 98.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday.
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04:50 Australian Dollar holds ground following Trade Balance, China Services PMI data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the second successive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair remains stronger following the release of domestic trade balance and China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
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The AUD/USD pair remains stronger following the release of domestic trade balance and China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.Australia’s trade surplus fell to 5,413M month-over-month in April, came below the 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading. Exports declined by 2.4% MoM in April, against a 7.2% rise prior (revised from 7.6%). Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1%, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 51.1 in May as expected, from 50.7 in April.The AUD/USD pair also gained ground as the US Dollar continues to face challenges following the weaker economic data and rising economic uncertainty in the United States (US). Traders will likely observe the US Balance of Trade and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims later in the North American session.Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar struggles amid rising tariff uncertaintyThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending its losses and trading at around 98.70 at the time of writing. The Greenback receives downward pressure from dampened risk sentiment amid rising tariff uncertainty and its potential to hurt growth in the US economy.Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in April. This reading surprisingly came in weaker than the expected 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, against a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, far below the market expectation of 115,000.House Republicans passed Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” a multitrillion-dollar tax and spending package, which could increase the US fiscal deficit, along with the risk of bond yields staying higher for longer. This scenario raises concerns over the US economy and prompts traders to sell American assets under the “Sell America” trend. Policy experts anticipate Senate changes as GOP lawmakers aim to finalize the “big bill” by July 4.Last week, Trump accused China of breaching a truce on tariffs reached earlier this month. Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower reciprocal tariffs in a meeting in Geneva. Trump said that China had "totally violated its agreement with us." US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer also said that China had failed to remove non-tariff barriers as agreed. In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that China had complied with the agreement by cancelling or suspending relevant tariff and non-tariff measures aimed at US "reciprocal tariffs."China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, falling short of the market expectations of a 50.6 expansion. However, the weekend data showed that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in May, from April’s 49.0 reading. Meanwhile, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 from the previous 50.4 figure, falling short of the expected reading of 50.6. The Aussie Dollar could be impacted by Chinese economic data as both countries are close trading partners.Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.2% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, declining from the previous 0.6% growth. Australia’s economy fell short of the expected 0.4% rise. Meanwhile, the annual GDP growth rate remained consistent at 1.3%, below the expected 1.5%.The S&P Global Australia Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.5 in May from April’s 51.0 reading, expanding for the eighth successive month. However, the pace indicates marginal growth in business activity, albeit the slowest so far in 2025.The S&P Global Australia Services PMI came at 50.6 in May, marking a 16th straight month of expansion but at the slowest pace in six months. The Ai Group Manufacturing PMI posted a -23.5 reading, an improvement from the previous -26.5. Manufacturers experience delays in major projects and rising market hesitation due to global and domestic uncertainty.Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes of its May monetary policy meeting suggested that the board viewed the case for a 25 basis point cut as stronger, preferring a policy to be cautious and predictable. The policymakers highlighted that US trade policy posed a significant and adverse impact on the global outlook, but had not yet affected the Australian economy. However, they did not persuade that a 50 bps rate increase was needed.RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter expressed caution on Tuesday that “higher US tariffs will put a drag on the global economy.” Hunter noted that higher uncertainty could dampen investment, output, and employment in Australia. However, she also added that Australia’s exporters are relatively well-placed to weather the storm and assumes that Chinese authorities will support their economy through fiscal stimulus.Australian Dollar challenges 0.6500 barrier ahead of seven-month peakThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6500 on Thursday, with a persistent bullish bias. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. The short-term price momentum remains stronger as the pair stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish outlook.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target a seven-month high of 0.6537, which was recorded on May 26. Further advances explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6670.The primary support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6468, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6460. A break below this crucial support zone could dampen the bullish bias and lead the AUD/USD pair to test the 50-day EMA at 0.6400.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% 0.07% 0.11% 0.03% -0.10% -0.01% 0.04% EUR -0.04% 0.08% 0.08% 0.02% -0.13% -0.14% 0.03% GBP -0.07% -0.08% 0.04% -0.06% -0.20% -0.20% -0.07% JPY -0.11% -0.08% -0.04% -0.09% -0.26% -0.22% -0.08% CAD -0.03% -0.02% 0.06% 0.09% -0.17% -0.14% -0.00% AUD 0.10% 0.13% 0.20% 0.26% 0.17% -0.01% 0.15% NZD 0.01% 0.14% 0.20% 0.22% 0.14% 0.00% 0.16% CHF -0.04% -0.03% 0.07% 0.08% 0.00% -0.15% -0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Trade Balance (MoM) The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. Read more. Last release: Thu Jun 05, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 5,413M Consensus: 6,100M Previous: 6,900M Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
04:46 China’s Caixin Services PMI ticks up to 51.1 in May as expected
China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inched higher to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in April, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Thursday.
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China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inched higher to 51.1 in May from 50.7 in April, the latest data published by Caixin showed on Thursday.The data matched the market consensus of 51.1 in the reported period.AUD/USD reaction to China’s Services PMIThe Chinese proxy, the Australian Dollar (AUD) shows little to no reaction to the data release, with AUD/USD adding 0.06% on the day to trade at 0.6500 as of writing. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:45 China Caixin Services PMI in line with forecasts (51.1) in May
China Caixin Services PMI in line with forecasts (51.1) in May
04:33 Australia’s Trade Surplus declines to 5,413M MoM in April vs. 6,100M expected
Australia’s trade surplus declined to 5,413M MoM in April versus 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.
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Australia’s trade surplus declined to 5,413M MoM in April versus 6,100M expected and 6,892M (revised from 6,900M) in the previous reading, according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.Further details reveal that Australia's Exports fell by 2.4% MoM in April from 7.2% (revised from 7.6%) seen a month earlier. Meanwhile, Imports rose by 1.1% MoM in April, compared to a decline of 2.4% (revised from -2.2%) seen in March. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
04:32 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) registered at 5413M, below expectations (6100M) in April
Australia Trade Balance (MoM) registered at 5413M, below expectations (6100M) in April
04:31 Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous 7.6% to -2.4% in April
Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous 7.6% to -2.4% in April
04:30 Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous -2.2% to 1.1% in April
Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous -2.2% to 1.1% in April
04:19 New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price up to 1.9% in May from previous 0%
New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price up to 1.9% in May from previous 0%
04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1865 vs. 7.1886 previous
On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1865 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1886 and 7.1762 Reuters estimate.
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On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1865 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1886 and 7.1762 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
04:10 NZD/USD extends upside above 0.6000 on weaker US data
The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) due to the concern over mounting economic and political uncertainty in the US economy.
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The NZD/USD pair extends the rally to around 0.6035 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) due to the concern over mounting economic and political uncertainty in the US economy. Investors await the Chinese Caixin Services PMI, which is due later on Thursday. The weaker-than-expected US economic data released on Wednesday exert some selling pressure on the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 49.9 versus 51.6 prior. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation of 52.0.Additionally, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May, compared to a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, missed the market expectation of 115,000 by a wide margin.The expectation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will slow the pace of interest rate cuts as uncertainty grows could provide some support to the Kiwi. “While the RBNZ downgraded its economic forecasts compared to February and emphasized the high degree of uncertainty around global conditions, there was a surprising amount of caution around the timing and extent of further OCR cuts,” said Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon.Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US and China trade talks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that Trump and Xi Jinping were expected to meet soon to resolve trade disputes, although on Monday there was an from China's Commerce Ministry of US accusations that Beijing violated their trade agreement. Any sign of signs of renewed trade tensions could undermine the China-proxy Kiwi as China is a major trading partner of New Zealand. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
03:17 WTI edges lower to near $62.00 amid mounting supply glut fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower as Saudi Arabia signals it may push for a large production increase, raising fears of a global oil oversupply.
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Fears of a global oil oversupply undermine the WTI price. Oil inventories fell by 4.304 million barrels in the week ended May 30, according to the EIA. Heightened geopolitical risks and expectations that Iran will reject a US nuclear deal might cap the WTI’s downside. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.00 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price edges lower as Saudi Arabia signals it may push for a large production increase, raising fears of a global oil oversupply.On Saturday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to increase their production again on Saturday. OPEC+ planned to raise production at a steady rate by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, following an increase in May and June. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia is open to additional crude production hikes in a bid to increase its market share, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. Concern about a global oil supply weighs on the WTI price. US gasoline stocks swelled by 5.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Analysts polled had expected a rise of 600,000 barrels. Meanwhile, US Crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week. The EIA weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending May 30 fell by 4.304 million barrels, compared to a decline of 2.795 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would drop by 900,000 barrels.On the other hand, doubts about a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran could help limit the WTI’s losses. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that he doesn't think talks with the US will succeed, while US President Donald Trump stated that Tehran will face "something bad" if it doesn't quickly accept a US proposal over its nuclear program. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
03:01 Ireland AIB Services PMI rose from previous 52.8 to 54.7 in May
Ireland AIB Services PMI rose from previous 52.8 to 54.7 in May
02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥336.1B in May 30 from previous ¥309.3B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks increased to ¥336.1B in May 30 from previous ¥309.3B
02:34 Fed's Kashkari: Labour market is showing some signs of slowing down
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said late Wednesday that the labour market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, the central bank must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said late Wednesday that the labour market is showing some signs of slowing down. However, the central bank must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty. Key quotesLabour market is showing some signs of slowing down.
Inflation rate is still not back to the 2% target.
There is persistent uncertainty over the economy.
Fed must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.
The bond and equity markets are sending conflicting signals.Market reaction The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.06% lower on the day at 98.75, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Inflation rate is still not back to the 2% target.
There is persistent uncertainty over the economy.
Fed must stay in wait-and-see mode to assess how the economy responds to the uncertainty.
The bond and equity markets are sending conflicting signals.Market reaction The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.06% lower on the day at 98.75, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
02:30 Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below forecasts (2.6%) in April: Actual (2.3%)
Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below forecasts (2.6%) in April: Actual (2.3%)
02:10 USD/CAD remains under selling pressure below 1.3700, BoC held key rate steady
The USD/CAD pair remains under selling pressure around 1.3675 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Weaker US economic data and mounting economic and political uncertainty weigh on the US Dollar (USD) broadly.
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US ISM Services PMI unexpectedly contracted last month for the first time in nearly a year. The Bank of Canada held its key rate steady but said a future cut is possible. The USD/CAD pair remains under selling pressure around 1.3675 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Weaker US economic data and mounting economic and political uncertainty weigh on the US Dollar (USD) broadly. Later on Thursday, the US Balance of Trade and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be released. Also, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Adriana Kugler and Patrick T. Harker are set to speak. The business activity in the US service sector contracted in May, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declining to 49.9 from 51.6 in April. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation of 52.0. Meanwhile, US ADP private sector employment rose 37,000 in May versus a 60,000 increase (revised from 62,000) recorded in April, missing the market expectation of 115,000 by a wide margin.Wednesday’s US ISM Services PMI and ADP figures suggested an elevated level of anxiety around the US President Donald Trump administration’s frequently changing trade policy. This, in turn, might exert some selling pressure on the Greenback in the near term. The Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to hold its key benchmark rate at 2.75% at its June meeting on Wednesday. The decision marked the second time in a row that the BoC has remained on the sidelines after an aggressive rate reduction by 225 basis points (bps) over nine months.BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that the trade conflict initiated by the US remains the biggest challenge in the Canadian economy, adding that another cut might be necessary if the economy is weakened in the face of tariffs. Economists expect two or three more rate cuts this year, and the final rate by the end of the year would likely end at around 2%, according to Reuters. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
02:00 South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) in line with forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q
South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) in line with forecasts (-0.2%) in 1Q
02:00 South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 0%, above forecasts (-0.1%) in 1Q
South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 0%, above forecasts (-0.1%) in 1Q
01:22 GBP/USD sticks close to near-term highs as key labor data looms
GBP/USD caught a bid on Wednesday, paring the previous day’s losses and keeping price action on the high side of recent congestion. Bids remain pinned firmly above 1.3500 with key US Nonfarm Payrolls data looming ahead later in the week.
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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
00:08 AUD/USD threatens psychological resistance as US Dollar bulls back down
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining confidence against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with bulls eagerly approaching a critical barrier of resistance.
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.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD recovers as bulls eagerly approach psychological resistance at 0.6500.US Jobless Claims on Thursday take the spotlight following Wednesday’s disappointing ADP report.Australia’s trade balance data could provide additional insight into the resilience of the export industry to tariffs.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is gaining confidence against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, with bulls eagerly approaching a critical barrier of resistance.With AUD/USD trading above 0.6493 at the time of writing, the 0.6500 psychological level is on the horizon, which has proven to be a challenging level to clear over recent weeks. After falling to a low of 0.5914 in April, the Australian Dollar experienced a sharp rally, pushing prices above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). As the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues to provide support for the short-term move at 0.6437, the 0.6500 zone came into focus in May, limiting the upside potential for AUD/USD on several occasions.To continue progressing along an upward trajectory over the upcoming months, a clear break above the 0.6500 level is required, which is often provided by a fundamental catalyst.AUD/USD daily chartAustralia’s Trade Balance and US Jobless Claims will influence AUD/USD directionOn Thursday, the economic calendar includes high-impact economic data releases scheduled for Australia and the United States, which could potentially push prices out of this range.At 01:30 GMT, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the Trade Balance data for April, with Australia expected to report a MoM surplus of A$6.1 million. A positive value would suggest that Australia’s export industry remained resilient despite the implementation of tariffs on imports to the US, which may support a positive outlook for the Australian economy and for the Australian Dollar. The opposite would apply if the April figures miss expectations by a large margin and data suggest that the export industry could be more vulnerable to the effects of tariffs than initially expected.Meanwhile, investors will be monitoring the weekly release of US Initial Jobless Claims, which are expected to show the previous week falling to 230K, down from 240K reported last week. Wednesday’s ADP numbers showed that 37,000 jobs were added to the US private sector in May, missing expectations of an increase of 115,000 jobs.With the May release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which provides insight into the health of the broader US labour market, any changes in the labour situation is often reflected in the USD exchange rate since this has a direct impact on interest rate expectations and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) projected monetary policy stance. Economic Indicator Trade Balance (MoM) The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. Read more. Next release: Thu Jun 05, 2025 01:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 6,100M Previous: 6,900M Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
00:00 South Korea FX Reserves declined to 404.6B in May from previous 404.67B
South Korea FX Reserves declined to 404.6B in May from previous 404.67B
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